The NFL stat that consistently indicates a team’s potential playoff success

Bobhaze · Jul 22, 2019

The 2019 season is just about 7 weeks away and our Cowboys have as good a shot at playoff success as any team they’ve had in the last 5 years.

Almost every year, there is one key NFL TEAM stat that will very accurately predict how well a team will perform in the regular season and especially in the playoffs. It usually indicates whether or not your team will at least be in the conference championship game. Here’s what is:

POINT DIFFERENTIAL- Usually, the teams with a point differential of +90 or better are the teams that make the Conference championship game and also make the SB. Look at last year- there were 7 NFL teams that had a +90 or better point differential and they all made the playoffs, 4 made the conf championship game, and both SB teams had it. These were the teams:
- Saints- +151, Chiefs +144, Rams +143, Bears +138, Pats +111, Ravens +102, Chargers +99
- The Conf championship teams were Rams/Saints, Pats/Chiefs, all having more than +100 point differential margins.
- In 2017, the 4 teams that made conf championship games all had +100 differentials. Pats +162, Jags +149, Eags +162, Vikes +130. The two SB teams had the best differentials.
- IN 2016, the 3 of the 4 teams that Made the conference championship games were +100, GB being the outlier because they beat us in divisional round.
- In the last 5 years, only one SB winner had less than a +100 point differential- Denver in 2015 with a PD of +59

Cowboys point differentials the last 5 years show this pattern as well.
- 2014: +115 (Pack was +138, and Sea was +140 and they played in NFC championship)
- 2015: We sucked. PD was -99! (Teams in NFC championship were Panthers+192 and Cards +176- Denver was an outlier SB winner a +59 PD)
- 2016- +115 (same as 2014) Again we lost to GB who only had a PD of +44 but Atl with a +134 killed GB in NFC championship game)
- 2017 +22 did not make playoffs
- 2018 +15 made playoffs, won a WC game, but were beaten by rams, +143 team.

So seems like the team stat to pay attention to is POINT DIFFERENTIAL. In the last 5 years, we’ve had two teams with +100 PDs and IMO, both should have played in NFC championship game. Based on the PD numbers in the last 5 seasons, if your team is +100 or better in PD, and NOT in a conference championship game, the coaching needs to be looked at.

Interesting.

CowboysFaninHouston · Jul 22, 2019

Bobhaze said:
The 2019 season is just about 7 weeks away and our Cowboys have as good a shot at playoff success as any team they’ve had in the last 5 years.

Almost every year, there is one key NFL TEAM stat that will very accurately predict how well a team will perform in the regular season and especially in the playoffs. It usually indicates whether or not your team will at least be in the conference championship game. Here’s what is:

POINT DIFFERENTIAL- Usually, the teams with a point differential of +90 or better are the teams that make the Conference championship game and also make the SB. Look at last year- there were 7 NFL teams that had a +90 or better point differential and they all made the playoffs, 4 made the conf championship game, and both SB teams had it. These were the teams:

Saints- +151, Chiefs +144, Rams +143, Bears +138, Pats +111, Ravens +102, Chargers +99

The Conf championship teams were Rams/Saints, Pats/Chiefs, all having more than +100 point differential margins.

In 2017, the 4 teams that made conf championship games all had +100 differentials. Pats +162, Jags +149, Eags +162, Vikes +130. The two SB teams had the best differentials.

IN 2016, the 3 of the 4 teams that Made the conference championship games were +100, GB being the outlier because they beat us in divisional round.

In the last 5 years, only one SB winner had less than a +100 point differential- Denver in 2015 with a PD of +59

Cowboys point differentials the last 5 years show this pattern as well.

2014: +115 (Pack was +138, and Sea was +140 and they played in NFC championship)

2015: We sucked. PD was -99! (Teams in NFC championship were Panthers+192 and Cards +176- Denver was an outlier SB winner a +59 PD)

2016- +115 (same as 2014) Again we lost to GB who only had a PD of +44 but Atl with a +134 killed GB in NFC championship game)

2017 +22 did not make playoffs

2018 +15 made playoffs, won a WC game, but were beaten by rams, +143 team.

So seems like the team stat to pay attention to is POINT DIFFERENTIAL. In the last 5 years, we’ve had two teams with +100 PDs and IMO, both should have played in NFC championship game. Based on the PD numbers in the last 5 seasons, if your team is +100 or better in PD, and NOT in a conference championship game, the coaching needs to be looked at.

Interesting.

so running up the score, gives you a better chance of success in the playoffs...

I wonder if there is a better correlations of point differential in the last 8 games of the season and success in the playoffs.

Bobhaze · Jul 22, 2019

CowboysFaninHouston said:
so running up the score, gives you a better chance of success in the playoffs...

I wonder if there is a better correlations of point differential in the last 8 games of the season and success in the playoffs.

Actually that’s not true at all about running up the score. To get to +100 in PD over a 16game season, if you won 12 games, that would mean average a +8.2 per game. What it would also require is that you are in every game, not getting blown out yourself. Really good teams may lose a few games, but almost never get blown out.

CowboysFaninHouston · Jul 22, 2019

Bobhaze said:
Actually that’s not true at all about running up the score. To get to +100 in PD over a 16game season, if you won 12 games, that would mean average a +8.2 per game. What it would also require is that you are in every game, not getting blown out yourself. Really good teams may lose a few games, but almost never get blown out.

we beat Jags 40-7...that's running up the score.... so 8.2 points per game, would have made a 15-7 score. which means 25 points and that's 3 games you could have won by 1 point and still be within the average. or 5 games if you won by around 3 or 4 points.....

that's why I said, lets look at the last 8 games...its probably a better indicator....

Joe Realist · Jul 22, 2019

I don't think the Cowboys are playoff team in 2019.

Toruk_Makto · Jul 22, 2019

CowboysFaninHouston said:
so running up the score, gives you a better chance of success in the playoffs...

I wonder if there is a better correlations of point differential in the last 8 games of the season and success in the playoffs.

Very few teams can/do run up the score.

Also point differential has proven strongly correlated to post season success across all the major sports in America.

The problem is is that it's backwards looking.

viman96 · Jul 22, 2019

LOL so the team that scores more points and prevents the opposing team from scoring as much tend to win in the Playoffs? Shocking! LOL actually point differential is something I pay attention to as well.

Fletch · Jul 22, 2019

Joe Realist said:
I don't think the Cowboys are playoff team in 2019.

You actually do, but we need to hear this. Thanks for all you do.

InTheZone · Jul 22, 2019

1 td a game by Dak wont cut it

Bobhaze · Jul 22, 2019

In the last ten seasons, only two teams have won a SB with a less than +100 point differential- The 2011 midgets with a PD of -6 and the 2012 ravens with a +54.

Bobhaze · Jul 22, 2019

Toruk_Makto said:
Very few teams can/do run up the score.

Also point differential has proven strongly correlated to post season success across all the major sports in America.

The problem is is that it's backwards looking.

I understand what you mean about backward looking but, we usually know by 6-8 games into a season whether or not a team is on pace to be a +100 PD team. It’s not all looking back. Plus, going into the playoffs, if your team is +100, the chances are excellent that it should at least make the conference championship game. Unless you have a poor coach in the playoffs....lol.

sean10mm · Jul 22, 2019

Point differential is just another way of saying that the overall quality of offense + defense has to be a certain level. Which I think we knew already.

Toruk_Makto · Jul 22, 2019

Bobhaze said:
I understand what you mean about backward looking but, we usually know by 6-8 games into a season whether or not a team is on pace to be a +100 PD team. It’s not all looking back. Plus, going into the playoffs, if your team is +100, the chances are excellent that it should at least make the conference championship game. Unless you have a poor coach in the playoffs....lol.

By 50% of the way into the season we have enough data to calculate offensive and defensive efficiency and generally already know who the best teams are.

Floatyworm · Jul 22, 2019

I'll buy into that....Just goes to show how big the differnce is...in having an offense that could score TDs inside the redzone instead of settling for FGs.

How many times did you want to throw the TV remote through the TV when Linehan would pass the ball on 3rd and 2? Or not have the balls to go for it on 4th and short?

All the freaking time...

Aerolithe_Lion · Jul 22, 2019

So you’re saying that teams who are the most better than their opponents win more?

I’m not buying it.

Arkyvarminter · Jul 22, 2019

Joe Realist said:
I don't think the Cowboys are playoff team in 2019.

Then they never will be...

Bobhaze · Jul 22, 2019

In the 8 full seasons Jason Garrett has been HC, his teams have had a PD of over +100 only twice- 2014 and 2016. And the combined PD for 8 seasons is +177. That averages out to be about a PD of about +22 per season.

That pretty much explains the last 8 years. Two really good teams, 5 average to above average teams, and one really bad one in 2015. If Garrett can’t get this team back to a +100 type team, why would keeping him around be anything more than for Jerry’s “comfort”?

eromeopolk · Jul 22, 2019

Yes. That's how it works. You score more points than the other team...you win the game.

ESisback · Jul 22, 2019

Bobhaze said:
The 2019 season is just about 7 weeks away and our Cowboys have as good a shot at playoff success as any team they’ve had in the last 5 years.

Almost every year, there is one key NFL TEAM stat that will very accurately predict how well a team will perform in the regular season and especially in the playoffs. It usually indicates whether or not your team will at least be in the conference championship game. Here’s what is:

POINT DIFFERENTIAL- Usually, the teams with a point differential of +90 or better are the teams that make the Conference championship game and also make the SB. Look at last year- there were 7 NFL teams that had a +90 or better point differential and they all made the playoffs, 4 made the conf championship game, and both SB teams had it. These were the teams:

Saints- +151, Chiefs +144, Rams +143, Bears +138, Pats +111, Ravens +102, Chargers +99

The Conf championship teams were Rams/Saints, Pats/Chiefs, all having more than +100 point differential margins.

In 2017, the 4 teams that made conf championship games all had +100 differentials. Pats +162, Jags +149, Eags +162, Vikes +130. The two SB teams had the best differentials.

IN 2016, the 3 of the 4 teams that Made the conference championship games were +100, GB being the outlier because they beat us in divisional round.

In the last 5 years, only one SB winner had less than a +100 point differential- Denver in 2015 with a PD of +59

Cowboys point differentials the last 5 years show this pattern as well.

2014: +115 (Pack was +138, and Sea was +140 and they played in NFC championship)

2015: We sucked. PD was -99! (Teams in NFC championship were Panthers+192 and Cards +176- Denver was an outlier SB winner a +59 PD)

2016- +115 (same as 2014) Again we lost to GB who only had a PD of +44 but Atl with a +134 killed GB in NFC championship game)

2017 +22 did not make playoffs

2018 +15 made playoffs, won a WC game, but were beaten by rams, +143 team.

So seems like the team stat to pay attention to is POINT DIFFERENTIAL. In the last 5 years, we’ve had two teams with +100 PDs and IMO, both should have played in NFC championship game. Based on the PD numbers in the last 5 seasons, if your team is +100 or better in PD, and NOT in a conference championship game, the coaching needs to be looked at.

Interesting.

Nice post, Hazey! You’re kinda like a “reader friendly” version of Jumbo!

Don’t take that wrong....

CouchCoach · Jul 22, 2019

Bobhaze said:
In the 8 full seasons Jason Garrett has been HC, his teams have had a PD of over +100 only twice- 2014 and 2016. And the combined PD for 8 seasons is +177. That averages out to be about a PD of about +22 per season.

That pretty much explains the last 8 years. Two really good teams, 5 average to above average teams, and one really bad one in 2015. If Garrett can’t get this team back to a +100 type team, why would keeping him around be anything more than for Jerry’s “comfort”?

Why do you think he's there now? Winning playoff games isn't a requirement of Booger's or the fans buying tickets. They'll be lining up again this season in hopes of getting to spend their hard earned money and trust funds on tickets, overpriced food and trinkets.

Got the most valuable sports franchise on the planet, got sell outs since the new Big Top opened, have the most profitable franchise in a very profitable league and the number one sports attraction on cable and TV in the country. Now, where did he go wrong?

He's already won before the season starts, he can't screw it up regardless of who he hires as a HC but he prefers a man he likes and a man who likes and respects him and is responsive and understanding of his needs. That is the critical part of the job, knowing when to step up and when to stay back. This man wasn't brought here by chance, this was in the works for quite some time and part of the plan all along.

There are no known parameters for Garrett to get a new contract. Some will put stock in what Booger or Son said so since when was any of that etched in stone? I have known a lot of owners of businesses in my time and they all have one common prerogative, to change their minds. They can do what they want to do and this owner has a one up on all of the others I've known, there are no penalties for being wrong.

The NFL stat that consistently indicates a team’s potential playoff success

Bobhaze

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC

Bobhaze

CowboysFaninHouston

CowboysFaninDC

Joe Realist

No Kool-Aid here!

Toruk_Makto

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viman96

Thread Killer

Fletch

To The Moon

InTheZone

Well-Known Member

Bobhaze

Bobhaze

sean10mm

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Toruk_Makto

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Floatyworm

The Labeled One

Aerolithe_Lion

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Arkyvarminter

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Bobhaze

eromeopolk

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ESisback

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CouchCoach