The NFL stat that consistently indicates a team’s potential playoff success

[Jake]

we beat Jags 40-7...that's running up the score....

"Running up the score" is a college powerhouse beating Cornfield Tech 73-6 in September. The little guys never stood a chance.

The NFL is one professional team versus another professional team. If you get beat by 30 it's on you.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Very few teams can/do run up the score.

Also point differential has proven strongly correlated to post season success across all the major sports in America.

The problem is is that it's backwards looking.

Exactly. What I'm more interested in is a predictive stat/stats for the next season.

Think DVOA is pretty handy there.

 

[Alexander]

2018 +15 made playoffs, won a WC game, but were beaten by rams, +143 team.

This is a big reason why it is not out of the realm of possibility to believe last season had some fluke to it.

It is not often that teams can win that many squeakers and expect to get very far in the playoffs.

That is the main reason this offense has to get better in the red zone, kick fewer FGs and score more TDs.

Hopefully we have solved some of that with some speed and better coaching.

 

[America's Cowboy]

The 2019 season is just about 7 weeks away and our Cowboys have as good a shot at playoff success as any team they’ve had in the last 5 years.

Almost every year, there is one key NFL TEAM stat that will very accurately predict how well a team will perform in the regular season and especially in the playoffs. It usually indicates whether or not your team will at least be in the conference championship game. Here’s what is:

• POINT DIFFERENTIAL- Usually, the teams with a point differential of +90 or better are the teams that make the Conference championship game and also make the SB. Look at last year- there were 7 NFL teams that had a +90 or better point differential and they all made the playoffs, 4 made the conf championship game, and both SB teams had it. These were the teams:
• • Saints- +151, Chiefs +144, Rams +143, Bears +138, Pats +111, Ravens +102, Chargers +99
  • The Conf championship teams were Rams/Saints, Pats/Chiefs, all having more than +100 point differential margins.
  • In 2017, the 4 teams that made conf championship games all had +100 differentials. Pats +162, Jags +149, Eags +162, Vikes +130. The two SB teams had the best differentials.
  • IN 2016, the 3 of the 4 teams that Made the conference championship games were +100, GB being the outlier because they beat us in divisional round.
  • In the last 5 years, only one SB winner had less than a +100 point differential- Denver in 2015 with a PD of +59

• Cowboys point differentials the last 5 years show this pattern as well.
  • 2014: +115 (Pack was +138, and Sea was +140 and they played in NFC championship)
  • 2015: We sucked. PD was -99! (Teams in NFC championship were Panthers+192 and Cards +176- Denver was an outlier SB winner a +59 PD)
  • 2016- +115 (same as 2014) Again we lost to GB who only had a PD of +44 but Atl with a +134 killed GB in NFC championship game)
  • 2017 +22 did not make playoffs
  • 2018 +15 made playoffs, won a WC game, but were beaten by rams, +143 team.

So seems like the team stat to pay attention to is POINT DIFFERENTIAL. In the last 5 years, we’ve had two teams with +100 PDs and IMO, both should have played in NFC championship game. Based on the PD numbers in the last 5 seasons, if your team is +100 or better in PD, and NOT in a conference championship game, the coaching needs to be looked at.

Interesting.

Interesting stat, BH. Agreed how the coaching staff should be looked at (looking at Marinelli since his defenses gave up the games during both the 2014 and 2016 playoffs) if the Cowboys have a point differential of 100+ yet fail to reach the NFC Conference Championship Game, but shouldn't the coaching staff also be evaluated when only having a point differential of 15+, yet end up only 8 points shy of tying the playoff game and potentially being so close to reaching an NFC Conference Championship Game?

 

[Jake]

The 2019 season is just about 7 weeks away and our Cowboys have as good a shot at playoff success as any team they’ve had in the last 5 years.

Almost every year, there is one key NFL TEAM stat that will very accurately predict how well a team will perform in the regular season and especially in the playoffs. It usually indicates whether or not your team will at least be in the conference championship game. Here’s what is:

• POINT DIFFERENTIAL- Usually, the teams with a point differential of +90 or better are the teams that make the Conference championship game and also make the SB. Look at last year- there were 7 NFL teams that had a +90 or better point differential and they all made the playoffs, 4 made the conf championship game, and both SB teams had it. These were the teams:
• • Saints- +151, Chiefs +144, Rams +143, Bears +138, Pats +111, Ravens +102, Chargers +99
  • The Conf championship teams were Rams/Saints, Pats/Chiefs, all having more than +100 point differential margins.
  • In 2017, the 4 teams that made conf championship games all had +100 differentials. Pats +162, Jags +149, Eags +162, Vikes +130. The two SB teams had the best differentials.
  • IN 2016, the 3 of the 4 teams that Made the conference championship games were +100, GB being the outlier because they beat us in divisional round.
  • In the last 5 years, only one SB winner had less than a +100 point differential- Denver in 2015 with a PD of +59

• Cowboys point differentials the last 5 years show this pattern as well.
  • 2014: +115 (Pack was +138, and Sea was +140 and they played in NFC championship)
  • 2015: We sucked. PD was -99! (Teams in NFC championship were Panthers+192 and Cards +176- Denver was an outlier SB winner a +59 PD)
  • 2016- +115 (same as 2014) Again we lost to GB who only had a PD of +44 but Atl with a +134 killed GB in NFC championship game)
  • 2017 +22 did not make playoffs
  • 2018 +15 made playoffs, won a WC game, but were beaten by rams, +143 team.

So seems like the team stat to pay attention to is POINT DIFFERENTIAL. In the last 5 years, we’ve had two teams with +100 PDs and IMO, both should have played in NFC championship game. Based on the PD numbers in the last 5 seasons, if your team is +100 or better in PD, and NOT in a conference championship game, the coaching needs to be looked at.

Interesting.

1992 Cowboys were +166
1993 Cowboys were +147
1995 Cowboys were +144

The 1994 Cowboys were +166, but the Niners were +209.

Cleveland actually had the best in the AFC in 1994 (+136). Their coach later became known as The Hoodie.

 

[Bobhaze]

Why do you think he's there now? Winning playoff games isn't a requirement of Booger's or the fans buying tickets. They'll be lining up again this season in hopes of getting to spend their hard earned money and trust funds on tickets, overpriced food and trinkets.

Got the most valuable sports franchise on the planet, got sell outs since the new Big Top opened, have the most profitable franchise in a very profitable league and the number one sports attraction on cable and TV in the country. Now, where did he go wrong?

He's already won before the season starts, he can't screw it up regardless of who he hires as a HC but he prefers a man he likes and a man who likes and respects him and is responsive and understanding of his needs. That is the critical part of the job, knowing when to step up and when to stay back. This man wasn't brought here by chance, this was in the works for quite some time and part of the plan all along.

There are no known parameters for Garrett to get a new contract. Some will put stock in what Booger or Son said so since when was any of that etched in stone? I have known a lot of owners of businesses in my time and they all have one common prerogative, to change their minds. They can do what they want to do and this owner has a one up on all of the others I've known, there are no penalties for being wrong.​

I have no doubt Jerry that will decide the fate of Jason Garrett’s future based on precious little to do with bottom line results. Fresh off winning another “Forbes Trophy” as the most valuable sports franchise in American sports, Sadly, Jerry probably feels he’s already “won”.

 

[Bobhaze]

1992 Cowboys were +166
1993 Cowboys were +147
1995 Cowboys were +144

The 1994 Cowboys were +166, but the Niners were +209.

Cleveland actually had the best in the AFC in 1994 (+136). Their coach later became known as The Hoodie.

In our storied 59 season history, there are 19 Cowboys teams that hadthe dominant +100 point differential in a season. And 11 of those 19 happened in the Landry years. Eight of those Cowboys teams didn’t make a conference championship. The 1968, 1969, 1976,1983, 2007, 2009, 2014, and 2016 teams all had +100 PDs but did not make the conference final.

In the 29 years Landry coached the Cowboys, 11 of his teams reached the dominant +100 PD mark. In the 30 years of the Jones era, 8 teams have reached the dominant +100 PD, 4 of them in the 90s, 2 in 2000s, and 2 in the 2010s.

 

[Alexander]

In our storied 59 season history, there are 19 Cowboys teams that hadthe dominant +100 point differential in a season. And 11 of those 19 happened in the Landry years. Eight of those Cowboys teams didn’t make a conference championship. The 1968, 1969, 1976,1983, 2007, 2009, 2014, and 2016 teams all had +100 PDs but did not make the conference final.

In the 29 years Landry coached the Cowboys, 11 of his teams reached the dominant +100 PD mark. In the 30 years of the Jones era, 8 teams have reached the dominant +100 PD, 4 of them in the 90s, 2 in 2000s, and 2 in the 2010s.

Since I am lazy and want someone to do the work for me, I am curious at how the Cowboy teams of Parcells and Phillips rank versus the Garrett teams in this category.

 

[Bobhaze]

Since I am lazy and want someone to do the work for me, I am curious at how the Cowboy teams of Parcells and Phillips rank versus the Garrett teams in this category.

I have it.
In the 8 full seasons Jason Garrett has been HC, his teams have had a PD of over +100 only twice- 2014 and 2016. And the combined PD for 8 seasons is +177. That averages out to be about a PD of about +22 per season.

Parcells’ 4 teams never had a +100 PD team, and his PD average over 4 years is a totally average +2.
Phillips’ 4 teams had two +100 teams- 2007 and 2009, but the 2008 and 2010 teams underachieved. His teams averaged +49 PD per season

Interesting that Phillips’ teams averaged more than Garrett’s teams in PD, although Garrett has 8 seasons to Phillips 4. You could certainly argue that Phillips was the beneficiary of Parcells’ talent upgrades.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I don't think the Cowboys are playoff team in 2019.

It's been a long time since we made the playoffs in back to back years.

 

[Haimerej]

Another way of putting this stat- having a good offense and a good defense. Crazy how that would make a good team.

 

[Number1]

So seems like the team stat to pay attention to is POINT DIFFERENTIAL

I think we can all agree with that

but I'd get a bit more granular, like point differential over the last 8 games, much can happen in a NFL season

BTW, I'll bet there is a very close correlation between injuries and PD

 

[Techsass]

1 td a game by Dak wont cut it

Sure it can. That comes out to 112 points. It'll be real tough on the D though.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

I have no doubt Jerry that will decide the fate of Jason Garrett’s future based on precious little to do with bottom line results. Fresh off winning another “Forbes Trophy” as the most valuable sports franchise in American sports, Sadly, Jerry probably feels he’s already “won”.

If you turn $140 million into $5 billion you have already won

 

[Techsass]

If you turn $140 million into $5 billion you have already won

If that's the only game you're trying to play.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

That some of you guys take it so seriously that they haven’t won a championship in so long only helps pad the Jones family trust fund

 

[plasticman]

That is rather obvious, the real question is how did they create that impressive gap?

About five years ago I did a little statistical research, comparing Super Bowl teams and compiling common attributes.

One disclaimer: it's obvious that there will be exceptions to the rule. Keep in mind that a counter example or two is not a valid argument against the validity of my findings.....although someone always tries to attempt just that.

Anyway, it's rather obvious, offensively. They must be efficient scorers. They don't have to be prolific, but they do have to be consistent in their scoring.

Defensively, the key is not preventing points per se. They don't have to be a "shutdown" defense. They don't have to be an immovable wall.

The key to the defensive contribution comes in takeaways. The majority of Super Bowl teams create turnovers which have the double effect of wiping out drives and providing some cheap scoring through excellent field position.

Takeaways are devastating plays that can often create a 10-14 point swing. It also has a demoralizing effect on an opponent, particularly in a championship game when emotions are at a season long peak.

 

[Number1]

If that's the only game you're trying to play.

he makes dumb moves quite often, but I don't doubt JJ wants to win

 

[Bobhaze]

he makes dumb moves quite often, but I don't doubt JJ wants to win

I don’t doubt he wants to win. Just not enough to do what it takes to win. If fans keep buying what he sells, IMO he gets less motivated to do anything different.

 

[ESisback]

I don’t doubt he wants to win. Just not enough to do what it takes to win. If fans keep buying what he sells, IMO he gets less motivated to do anything different.

He probably believes he’s doing everything he can.