08/09 NFL Drafts - What can teams expect?

[DBOY3141]

Between the draft and OTA's it's a little quiet. Most talk is how did the rookies do in camp last week and what will happen to Doug Free. Thought I would take a look at the 2008/2009 drafts of the current title contenders to see what can really be expected from draft classes. Couple of standard responses we normally see before and after the draft.

1. Teams should be able to come out of the draft with 3 starters.
2. It takes a few years for players drafted after the 3rd round to become starters.
3. Bulk of a team's starters should be from drafts 4 to 5 years ago.
4. If a player doesn't get a second contract are they a bust.

Below are a few teams and their draft classes from 08/09 and who is still on the team. (all caps are still on team)

San Fran: 1 player left on team

2008 - Balmer, Rachel, Smith, R., Wallace, Morgan, Grant
2009 - CRABTREE, Coffee, McKillop, Davis, N., Pascoe, Taylor, C., Jean-Francois

Seattle: 2 players left on team
2008 - Jackson, L., Carlson, BRYANT, Schmidt, O., Schmidt, T., Forsett, Coutu
2009 - Curry, UNGER, Butler, Teel, Greene, Reed, Morrah

Green Bay: 5 players left on team
2008 - NELSON, Brohm, Lee, FINLEY
2009 - RAJI, MATTHEWS, LANG, Johnson, Q., Meridth, Underwood, JONES, B.

Atlanta: 8 players
2008 - RYAN, BAKER, Lofton, Jackson, DOUGLAS, DECLOUD, JAMES, BIERMAN, Brown, Fontenot, Zinger
2009 - JERRY, MOORE, Owens, Sidbury, Middleton, REYNOLDS, Adkins, Walker

NO: 2 players left on team
2008- Ellis, Porter, Pressley, Nicks, Mehlaff, Arrington
2009 - JENKINS, Vaugh, Arnoux, MORSTEAD

NY Giants: 4 players left on team
2008- Phillips, THOMAS, Manningham, Kehl, Goff, Woodson, Henderson
2009 - NICKS, Stinham, BEATTY, Barden, Beckum, BROWN, A., Bohmar, Wright, Woodson

Pitts: 2 players left on team
2008 - Mendenhall, Sweed, Davis, B., Hills, Dixon, Hunpal, Mundy
2009 - HOOD, Urbik, Wallace, Lewis, Burnett, Summers, Harris, Shipley, JOHNSON, D.

Baltimore: 4 players left on team
2008 - FLACO, RICE, Gooden, Zbikowski, Cousins, Smith, M., Hale, Nakamra, Harper, Patrick
2009 - OHER, Kruger, WEBB, Phillips, Drew, Peerman

Denver: 4 players left on team
2008 - CLADY, Royal, Lictensteger, Williams, Torain, Powell, Larsen, Barrett, Hillis
2009 - MORENO, AYERS, Smith, McBath, Quinn, BRUTON, Olsen, McKinley, Bradstaler, Schlueter

New England: 4 players left on team
2008 - MAYO, Wheatly, Crable, O'Connell, Wilhite, SLATER, Ruud
2009 - Chung, Brace, Butler, VOLLMER, Tate, Mckenzie, Ohrenberger, Bussy, Ingram, Sulak, Pryor, EDELMANN, Richard

Houston: 3 players left on team
2008 - BROWN, Molder, Slaton, Adibi, Okam, Barber
2009 - CUSHING, Barwin, Caldwell, Quin, Hill, Casey, MCCAIN, Nolan

From this little bit of information, I've come away with the following.

1. Getting 3 starters from 1 draft is highly unlikely.
2. There is not much time to try and develop projects, as most players are only on a team for about 4 years.
3. Grading the draft the next day is worthless, good reading, but no one has a clue what will happen.

 

[Nation]

Nice work. Always a fan of when people put together factual data as opposed to those that just spout off with cliches and anger.

 

[Supercowboy1986]

indeed great post and with proof that the boys are not the only team that doesn't retain players. maybe people will shut up now (but most likely not.)

 

[perrykemp]

Between the draft and OTA's it's a little quiet. Most talk is how did the rookies do in camp last week and what will happen to Doug Free. Thought I would take a look at the 2008/2009 drafts of the current title contenders to see what can really be expected from draft classes. Couple of standard responses we normally see before and after the draft.

1. Teams should be able to come out of the draft with 3 starters.
2. It takes a few years for players drafted after the 3rd round to become starters.
3. Bulk of a team's starters should be from drafts 4 to 5 years ago.
4. If a player doesn't get a second contract are they a bust.

Below are a few teams and their draft classes from 08/09 and who is still on the team. (all caps are still on team)

San Fran: 1 player left on team

2008 - Balmer, Rachel, Smith, R., Wallace, Morgan, Grant
2009 - CRABTREE, Coffee, McKillop, Davis, N., Pascoe, Taylor, C., Jean-Francois

Seattle: 2 players left on team
2008 - Jackson, L., Carlson, BRYANT, Schmidt, O., Schmidt, T., Forsett, Coutu
2009 - Curry, UNGER, Butler, Teel, Greene, Reed, Morrah

Green Bay: 5 players left on team
2008 - NELSON, Brohm, Lee, FINLEY
2009 - RAJI, MATTHEWS, LANG, Johnson, Q., Meridth, Underwood, JONES, B.

Atlanta: 8 players
2008 - RYAN, BAKER, Lofton, Jackson, DOUGLAS, DECLOUD, JAMES, BIERMAN, Brown, Fontenot, Zinger
2009 - JERRY, MOORE, Owens, Sidbury, Middleton, REYNOLDS, Adkins, Walker

NO: 2 players left on team
2008- Ellis, Porter, Pressley, Nicks, Mehlaff, Arrington
2009 - JENKINS, Vaugh, Arnoux, MORSTEAD

NY Giants: 4 players left on team
2008- Phillips, THOMAS, Manningham, Kehl, Goff, Woodson, Henderson
2009 - NICKS, Stinham, BEATTY, Barden, Beckum, BROWN, A., Bohmar, Wright, Woodson

Pitts: 2 players left on team
2008 - Mendenhall, Sweed, Davis, B., Hills, Dixon, Hunpal, Mundy
2009 - HOOD, Urbik, Wallace, Lewis, Burnett, Summers, Harris, Shipley, JOHNSON, D.

Baltimore: 4 players left on team
2008 - FLACO, RICE, Gooden, Zbikowski, Cousins, Smith, M., Hale, Nakamra, Harper, Patrick
2009 - OHER, Kruger, WEBB, Phillips, Drew, Peerman

Denver: 4 players left on team
2008 - CLADY, Royal, Lictensteger, Williams, Torain, Powell, Larsen, Barrett, Hillis
2009 - MORENO, AYERS, Smith, McBath, Quinn, BRUTON, Olsen, McKinley, Bradstaler, Schlueter

New England: 4 players left on team
2008 - MAYO, Wheatly, Crable, O'Connell, Wilhite, SLATER, Ruud
2009 - Chung, Brace, Butler, VOLLMER, Tate, Mckenzie, Ohrenberger, Bussy, Ingram, Sulak, Pryor, EDELMANN, Richard

Houston: 3 players left on team
2008 - BROWN, Molder, Slaton, Adibi, Okam, Barber
2009 - CUSHING, Barwin, Caldwell, Quin, Hill, Casey, MCCAIN, Nolan

From this little bit of information, I've come away with the following.

1. Getting 3 starters from 1 draft is highly unlikely.
2. There is not much time to try and develop projects, as most players are only on a team for about 4 years.
3. Grading the draft the next day is worthless, good reading, but no one has a clue what will happen.

Small correction - you missed Josh Sitton the Packers probowl guard who was drafted in the 4th round in 2008.

 

[Picksix]

1. Getting 3 starters from 1 draft is highly unlikely.

If all you're taking into consideration is the draft picks themselves. I think UDFA's should be included in a team's draft class. For many teams, Cowboys included, they seem to find as many starters that way as from their actual draft selections.

 

[Vintage]

In the spirit of dispelling myths...

On draft day, someone made the comment that Dallas drafts too many secondary players while real teams like the Giants don't load up in the secondary.

2007 Draft:

1 - Aaron Ross
7 - Michael Johnson

7 - Courtney Brown
7 - Alan Ball

2008 Draft

1- Kenny Phillips
2 - Terrell Thomas

1 - Mike Jenkins
5 - Orlando Scandrick

2009 Draft
6 - Deandre Wright
7 - Stoney Woodson

5 - Michael Hamlin
5 - DeAngelo Smith
6 - Stephen Hodge
7 - Mike Mickens

2010
3 - Chad Jones

4 - Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
6 - Jamar Wall

2011
1 - Prince Amukamara
6 - Tyler Sash

5 - Josh Thomas

2012
3 - Jayron Hosley

1 - Morris Claiborne
4 - Matt Johnson




Nah. The Giants like DB's plenty.

I didn't put 2013 in there since the draft was in process.

 

[DBOY3141]

Small correction - you missed Josh Sitton the Packers probowl guard who was drafted in the 4th round in 2008.

Thanks. Somehow I missed a few Packer players from the 08 draft.

Sitton - on team
Giacomini - nope
Flynn - nope
Swain - nope

 

[DBOY3141]

If all you're taking into consideration is the draft picks themselves. I think UDFA's should be included in a team's draft class. For many teams, Cowboys included, they seem to find as many starters that way as from their actual draft selections.

Very true. I just looked at draft picks since most talk the last month and till today has been about drafts and draft picks.

Cowboys do pretty well when it comes to UDFA.

 

[arglebargle]

Thanks for this fact based perspective. Especially with the 'Those drafts should be the backbone of our team!' tropes. While they really should be, it's not some foregone conclusion that happens to all teams except the Dallas Cowboys.

 

[marchetta]

Problem is, that these are upper-echelon teams. It's harder for rookies to break the starting lineup on playoff teams. We've won 1 playoff game in over a decade. So, a better comparison would be how well non-playoff teams draft starters.

 

[arglebargle]

I don't know, it's not like the Packers haven't needed significant Oline help and DB help.

But, I agree that the info would be useful. Let's dragoon Dboy into more research!!

 

[Dodger12]

In the spirit of dispelling myths...

On draft day, someone made the comment that Dallas drafts too many secondary players while real teams like the Giants don't load up in the secondary.



I didn't put 2013 in there since the draft was in process.

You're looking at it wrong. Why don't you look at the resources the Giants have invested in the trenches which is what the debates were about. I think you'll see a distinct difference in drafting philosophies between the two clubs.

 

[Eskimo]

You're looking at it wrong. Why don't you look at the resources the Giants have invested in the trenches which is what the debates were about. I think you'll see a distinct difference in drafting philosophies between the two clubs.

I don't know.

The Giants haven't invested a ton in the OL. They have just done a better job of developing players and building a functional OL out of leftovers. The last time they had a really good OL was 2009 but most of those guys are done now except Snee.

Where the Giants have invested a lot is DL with high picks for Kiwi (1st), Tuck (2nd), JPP (1st), Osi (2nd), Joseph (1st) over the last several years.

We have wasted too many picks on WRs - 2 for Galloway, 1 (plus a 3rd) for Roy to get very little production. Then we wasted a 1st on Bobby Carpenter and then later on Felix. We didn't really waste one on Jenkins who was actually a very good CB who busted his shoulder up badly in 2011 but actually put up a Pro Bowl year in 2009 when healthy and had great metrics to back it up.

You could argue the Cowboys spend to many picks on CBs: 1 top 5 TNew, 1 top 6 for Mo (cost us a 2nd rounder to move up), 1 for Jenkins. I don't mind so long as we get really good play for a long time out of them. We did out of Tnew, we didn't really from Jenkins due to injury and we'll have to see about Mo.

What I do think is that for a team with so little depth and so many star players that we trade up too much. You should only be doing this when the player is crucial or has fallen way too much in the draft and you don't want to risk someone going up and stealing him (Dez in 2010).

 

[DBOY3141]

I don't know, it's not like the Packers haven't needed significant Oline help and DB help.

But, I agree that the info would be useful. Let's dragoon Dboy into more research!!

Took a look at 6 teams that have not had much success in the last few years.

Bills: 2 players left on team
2008 - MCKELVIN, hardy, ellis, corner, fine, bowen, bell, JOHNSON, S.
2009 - maybin, WOOD, BYRD, levitre, nelson, harris, n., harris, c., lankster

Browns: 2 players left on team
2008 - bell, rucker, RUBIN, hubbard, hall, a.
2009 - MACK, robiskie, massaquoi, velkune, maliaua, carey, francies, davis, j.

Jags: 4 players left on team
2008 - MONROE, britton, knighton, cox, thomas, dillard, miller, z., jennings, underwood
2009 - ALUALU, SMITH, D.A., hart, LANE, karim, mcgee

Raiders: 2 players left on team
2008 - MCFADDEN, BRANCH, shields, scott, schilens
2009 - heyward-bey, mitchell, shaughessy, murphy, norris, myers

Rams: 2 players still on team
2008 - LONG, avery, greco, king, burton, schuening, chamberlain, vobora
2009 - smith, LAURINATIS, fletcher, scott, foster, null ogbonnaya

Lions: 4 players still on team

2008 - cherilus, dizon, smith, fluellen, arvil, moore, fleton, cohen, campbell
2009 - STAFFORD, PETTEGREW, DELMAS, LEVY, williams, hill, brown, murtha, follett, gronkowski

I am not a stat man, but just looking at the number of pics and players still left on teams, it doesn't appear to be much different between winning teams and losing teams draft records.

 

[pancakeman]

Boy that 2008 draft didn't produce much for these teams. Nice job for the Falcons though: they have as many players from that draft on their team now as the Patriots, Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, Saints, Giants, Steelers, Broncos, and Lions combined!

 

[Stash]

One area where I feel results are skewed is when the rookie contracts for quality players has expired.

Teams should be credited, not penalized for drafting players like Nicks, Wallace etc.

Those players went on to be highly coveted and among the best at their positions.

I don't think it should count against the teams that drafted them that they cold no longer afford them.

 

[IrishAnto]

Nice post DBOY.

Building a Superbowl winning team isn’t just about acquiring talent, it also requires nurturing, managing and getting the best out of the talent you’ve got.

It means having a viable system in place and drafting/signing players that best fit that system.

This allows you to develop these players to replace existing players who have passed their “sell by date” without having to resort to spending high draft picks and/or money on Free Agents to do the job.

It means managing player salaries so that you’re not paying for past performance but for what the player can do over the course of the new contract.

And lastly you need a bit of luck.

This is what separates Dallas from the likes on New England, Baltimore etc.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I've been saying the same thing on this site for the past year. Everyone brings up the Ravens and Pats as "successful evaluators" but they just like most teams in the NFL haven't been great at the draft either. There's a big misconception that because you have 7 rounds to draft talent that all of them will be successful...

 

[Nation]

I've been saying the same thing on this site for the past year. Everyone brings up the Ravens and Pats as "successful evaluators" but they just like most teams in the NFL haven't been great at the draft either. There's a big misconception that because you have 7 rounds to draft talent that all of them will be successful...

I think where they are successful evaluators is that they've done a good job at properly valuing how they sign and do not sign after they've played out their rookie contracts, as well as pro-scouting other teams for value. The Patriots and Ravens don't do the MB3/Hamlin/Free/Scandrick type deals that have hurt us financially.

 

[egn22]

Boy that 2008 draft didn't produce much for these teams. Nice job for the Falcons though: they have as many players from that draft on their team now as the Patriots, Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, Saints, Giants, Steelers, Broncos, and Lions combined!

Just out of curiosity I wanted to check the falcons draft grades for 2008

USA today:
GRADE: C+•*Atlanta Falcons:*Everything rides on QB Matt Ryan. His stock climbed as the draft approached. The Falcons desired stability and a new face for the franchise. Not sure the second reason is enough to take Ryan (19 INTs last year) third overall. Traded back into first round for OT Sam Baker, who could well wind up at G, making this a reach. Liking the defensive picks more than the offensive ones, but Ryan ultimately makes or breaks this draft.

Footballs Future
Overall:*B+. The only thing keeping this from being an A is instant impact. DRC has a huge jump from the small school level, and Calais Campbell is a work in progress.Atlanta FalconsBest Pick:*Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College, Round 1.*Some may have preferred Glenn Dorsey, but this was the right pick. He can be the face of the franchise for the next ten years, and brings every intangible needed to help the Falcons bounce back.Worst Pick:*Sam Baker, OT, USC Round 1.*Baker is a very solid player and will help the Falcons out. They panicked though, trading up to 21 to select Baker. There was a run on tackles, and Baker was probably drafted a little early.2nd Day Steal:*Harry Douglas, WR, Louisville, Round 3.*Douglas is electrifying with the ball in his hands, and should add a boost to the Falcons receiving corps.Overall:*B. The Falcons have a lot of work to do, and they did a good job addressing needs. They filled some holes with talent and high character players

I'm afraid that's all I have for now. This is difficult to do on my cell phone lol