1st day WR Draft Picks - more busts than normal?

[LarryCanadian]

Has anyone analyzed this at all (we have some amazing stats folks on this board I gotta say).

To me it seems like so many of the highly touted 1st day draft picks at WR are fizzling somewhat badly. For every Larry Fitzgerald there seems to be a bust (usually in Detroit, hehe).

I realize that wideouts sometimes take time to adjust to NFL, but a bunch of these guys are taken really high and the development seems rather slow.

This came to mind because I thought the 3 young WR we kept in Hurd, Rector, and Austin, seemed to look fairly polished even when compared to 1st day picks. Maybe its the huge number of reps with 1st and 2nd team they got, but I'm starting to think maybe drafting a WR early isn't the only way to get a young playmaker at that position.

I'm not much of an expert on rosters of other teams, but in our own division how many starting WR's are early draft picks from that team originally?

Thinking from a fantasy WR perspective, to me it seems that there are fewer and fewer sure fire guys that are gonna get a team 1000 yards consistently. WR seems to be suffering more severe injury trouble over last few years as well.

Maybe it is just a weird perception.

LarryCanadian

 

[kmd24]

I don't know about 1st day WR, but the 1st round WR since 2002 have a pretty high success rate. The only real busts I see among them are Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Rashaun Woods. Bryant Johnson is respectable - he was more of a reach than a bust. Reggie Williams, I think the jury is still out on him, but he's been a bit of a disappointment. The rest I think still have a good chance at solid careers:

Donte Stallworth
Ashley Lelie
Javon Walker
Andre Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Roy Williams
Lee Evans
Michael Clayton
Michael Jenkins
Braylon Edwards
Troy Williamson
Matt Jones
Mark Clayton
Roddy White

So that's only 3 real busts out of 19, 2 questionable players, and 15 starter-caliber players.

 

[Common Sense]

Starting WR's in the NFC and where they were drafted:

East

Dallas
Terry Glenn (1996, Round 1, Pick 7, Patriots)
Terrell Owens (1996, Round 3, Pick 28, 49ers)

New York
Plexico Burress (2000, Round 1, Pick 8, Steelers)
Amani Toomer (1996, Round 2, Pick 4, Giants)

Philadelphia
Donte Stallworth (2002, Round 1, Pick 32, Saints)
Reggie Brown (2005, Round 2, Pick 3, Eagles)

Washington
Santana Moss (2001, Round 1, Pick 16, Jets)
Brandon Lloyd (2003, Round 4, Pick 27, 49ers)

North

Chicago
Muhsin Muhammad (1996, Round 2, Pick 13, Carolina)
Bernard Berrian (2004, Round 3, Pick 13, Bears)

Detroit
Roy Williams (2004, Round 1, Pick 7, Lions)
Corey Bradford (1998, Round 5, Pick 27, Packers)

Green Bay
Donald Driver (1999, Round 7, Pick 7, Packers)
Greg Jennings (2006, Round 2, Pick 20, Packers)

Minnesota
Troy Williamson (2005, Round 1, Pick 7, Vikings)
Travis Taylor (2000, Round 1, Pick 10, Ravens)

South

Atlanta
Roddy White (2005, Round 1, Pick 27, Falcons)
Michael Jenkins (2004, Round 1, Pick 24, Falcons)

Carolina
Steve Smith (2001, Round 3, Pick 12, Panthers)
Keyshawn Johnson (1996, Round 1, Pick 1, Jets)

New Orleans
Joe Horn (1996, Round 5, Pick 3, Chiefs)
Devery Henderson (2004, Round 2, Pick 18, Saints)

Tampa Bay
Joey Galloway (1995, Round 1, Pick 8, Seahawks)
Michael Clayton (2004, Round 1, Pick 15, Buccaneers)

West

Arizona
Larry Fitzgerald (2004, Round 1, Pick 3, Cardinals)
Anquan Boldin (2003, Round 2, Pick 22, Cardinals)

St. Louis
Torry Holt (1999, Round 1, Pick 6, Rams)
Isaac Bruce (1994, Round 2, Pick 4, Rams)

San Fransisco
Antonio Bryant (2002, Round 2, Pick 31, Cowboys)
Arnaz Battle (2003, Round 6, Pick 24, 49ers)

Seattle
Bobby Engram (1996, Round 2, Pick 22, Bears)
Darrell Jackson (2000, Round 3, Pick 18, Seattle)

Of the 32 receivers listed, 14 were drafted in the first round, 6 of those by their current teams.

Altogether, 14 out of the 32 WR's were drafted by their current teams.

5 of the starting WR's in the NFC either have played or are currently playing for the Dallas Cowboys.

 

[Deep_Freeze]

I guess he is trying to say, have some of these WRs become stars. What you have to understand is that most won't be stars, even if they are taken high.

Most of them will be productive, but it depends on what your defination of "bust" is. To some people, being average at the position, even if starting, is being a bust. To some people, you have to be cut and out of the league to be a bust.

Most will be team and QB dependent, so in some cases it is not really their fault. By the out of the league definition, there has been few busts. But, there are alot of them that are in the average catergory for a bust.

 

[Richmond Cowboy]

No UFA's and most are 3rd rounders or higher, what does that say about the long term prospects for guys like Rector & Hurd? Are they usually destined to be #3 receivers?

 

[Future]

No UFA's and most are 3rd rounders or higher, what does that say about the long term prospects for guys like Rector & Hurd? Are they usually destined to be #3 receivers?

probably

there is a reason these guys went undrafted

 

[Deep_Freeze]

No UFA's and most are 3rd rounders or higher, what does that say about the long term prospects for guys like Rector & Hurd? Are they usually destined to be #3 receivers?

Yes, they are.

I could see them becoming #2s though, but being a #3 isn't that bad. You still get a check.

 

[THUMPER]

Nicely done Common Sense!

 

[EastDallasCowboy]

Forgive me for going off topic, but how did the Saints end up with the 32nd pick in 02?

 

[Common Sense]

Forgive me for going off topic, but how did the Saints end up with the 32nd pick in 02?

That should say 13... I have no idea how I ended up typing 32 there.

 

[EastDallasCowboy]

Hehe, ok. Thanks.

Was very confused there.

I really don't have anything to add to the discussion, though.

 

[jay cee]

great topic and thread. IMO Rector, Hurd and Austin are more inclined to turn out like Copper and Crayton, than T.O. or Rod Smith

Just 2 seasons ago, many on this forum were talking about those two as potential starters of the future. Now going into their 3rd season, they are guys trying to hang on in the League.

Has Copper been picked up by anyone? I sure hated to see him get cut. I was hoping he could hang in the league long enough to qualify for the pension.

 

[Deep_Freeze]

great topic and thread. IMO Rector, Hurd and Austin are more inclined to turn out like Copper and Crayton, than T.O. or Rod Smith

Just 2 seasons ago, many on this forum were talking about those two as potential starters of the future. Now going into their 3rd season, they are guys trying to hang on in the League.

Has Copper been picked up by anyone? I sure hated to see him get cut. I was hoping he could hang in the league long enough to qualify for the pension.

Copper is a Saint I believe, down there with the rest of Cowboys South.

 

[theogt]

great topic and thread. IMO Rector, Hurd and Austin are more inclined to turn out like Copper and Crayton, than T.O. or Rod Smith

Just 2 seasons ago, many on this forum were talking about those two as potential starters of the future. Now going into their 3rd season, they are guys trying to hang on in the League.

Has Copper been picked up by anyone? I sure hated to see him get cut. I was hoping he could hang in the league long enough to qualify for the pension.

Crayton is doing a little better than just trying to hang on in the league. He is in another league compared to Copper, who was always just a special teamer.

 

[Common Sense]

I'm really not so sure Crayton has much of a future with this team. If he keeps getting injured, and Rector keeps playing well, Crayton could slide down to 4th on the depth chart by the end of the year. At 27, given his history with injuries so far, I have a feeling that Crayton is probably close to hitting his peak as a receiver. And since we're about due to look at WR's in the draft, that could send him down to 5th on the depth chart by next season -- a 28-year-old 5th wide receiver. Under that scenario, if Hurd or Austin show anything next training camp, Crayton would most likely not make the team.

 

[theogt]

I'm really not so sure Crayton has much of a future with this team. If he keeps getting injured, and Rector keeps playing well, Crayton could slide down to 4th on the depth chart by the end of the year. At 27, given his history with injuries so far, I have a feeling that Crayton is probably close to hitting his peak as a receiver. And since we're about due to look at WR's in the draft, that could send him down to 5th on the depth chart by next season -- a 28-year-old 5th wide receiver. Under that scenario, if Hurd or Austin show anything next training camp, Crayton would most likely not make the team.

Are you serious or just talking out of your you know what?

 

[LarryCanadian]

Many thanks for the guys gathering that info. Did show a trend there about starters being earlier picks.

My jury is still out on a few guys like Ashley Lelie and Evans, etc, but I was curious as to whether there was a trend or not for guys like Hurd, Rector, Austin to develop into starters. Current rosters don't suggest that do they?

In some ways I'm still trying to justify keeping 3 guys like that on roster. Maybe it's law of average and you play number game hoping a guy out of there ends up being your 3rd guy or something.

I'm back to believing we need to use a few earlier picks on young WR's.

Mind you guys like Burress and Stalworth were not drafted by their teams in NFC east, but they don't become available all the time.

Thanks again for summarizing.

Larry

 

[Common Sense]

Are you serious or just talking out of your you know what?

If he doesn't do anything to distinguish himself this season, he'll just be another guy, which won't bode well given that Dallas will only be looking to get younger at the position the next couple of seasons.

 

[theogt]

If he doesn't do anything to distinguish himself this season, he'll just be another guy, which won't bode well given that Dallas will only be looking to get younger at the position the next couple of seasons.

The only way he's not on the team is if we draft a WR very high or bring in a young free agent WR. Heck, even then he's probably a lock.

 

[Common Sense]

The only way he's not on the team is if we draft a WR very high or bring in a young free agent WR. Heck, even then he's probably a lock.

That's part of my reasoning. I'm expecting a first-day draft pick to be brought in. As deep as next year's WR class is supposed to be, and as old as our starting two WR's are getting, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Dallas take a receiver early. I just don't see Crayton's job being safe next season with him being 28 and injury prone. It all depends on what the younger guys show, though.