1st round draft picks

[Creeper]

The Cowboys used 3 first round picks in the last 4 years on offensive linemen. And yet, they look like they have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL right now. The theory is taking offensive linemen in the first round ensures a quality offensive line.

So I decided to look at some of the top teams, the Rams, Eagles and Chiefs and how they drafted the last 10 years.

The Eagles have had 10 first round draft picks since 2016. They used 1 on the offensive line. It was Andre Dillard who never played much for the Eagles and is now gone. That was in 2019. The rest of their top rated OL was assembled from other picks and transactions. To be fair, Lane Johnson was a 1st round pick in 2013.

The Chiefs used a 1st round pick on OL this year for the first time since 2013. They have had 6 picks total in the last 10 drafts.

Then I picked another contender that just lost a close game to the Eagles, They have only had 2 1st round picks in the last 10 drafts. Neither was used on offensive line. Given the Rams success in building and rebuilding, are 1st round picks even necessary?

What does this mean. It's not really a large enough sample size, but clearly it shows you don't have to use 1st round picks on the OL to build a good offensive line. This is especially true when finding Centers and Guards, and even then the OTs that succeed are usually taken early in the first round.

Of course if you refuse to play in the free agent market then I supposed you have to use 1st round picks to improve your chances of success.

I think the Cowboys reached for Guyton and Booker. Guyton has looked awful so far. Booker has been a mixed bag. But the question is, could Dallas have used a later pick for a OG and used their 1st round pick for an impact position? Look at all the players in the first round we could have picked, Grant, Walker, Warren, Egbuka, Hampton - all positions of need. I said then that Warren would have made the biggest impact on this offense, but it is possible Egbuka would have made a big impact too and we would not have had to trade for Pickens.

In the meantime, the Dolphins took Jonah Savaiinaea in the 2nd round and he starts at LG and plays pretty well. The Giants picked Marcus Mbow in the 5th round and he is playing a solid LT so far even though he was projected to be a guard coming out of college. The Cowboys didn't need to take Booker so early, but it is decisions like this that have a ripple effect on the rest of the draft and eventually the roster. Good teams are good because they get these decision right.

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

They draft OL because they don’t trust themselves with drafting other positions. No other team constantly sinks so many high resources into the OL.

 

[Gonzomandela01]

1st, 1st, 1st... Undrafted FA turnstile, smh

Even that they do wrong.

 

[beware_d-ware]

IMO, you use your 1st round picks to acquire good football players. Everything after that is details, they only matter if you get part #1 right.

Tyler Smith was a gamble on a raw athlete that worked out. Guyton was a gamble on a raw athlete that didn't. I will be honest, I hated both picks on draft day. Booker was just a plain reach.

The Smith and Guyton picks were both at least defensible. Booker though... find me one draft board in the universe that had him ranked over Tyler Warren.

 

[baltcowboy]

The young offensive line is best part of the team. They open holes and protect Dak. Nobody is perfect so why does the line have to be.

 

[HungryLion]

IMO, you use your 1st round picks to acquire good football players. Everything after that is details, they only matter if you get part #1 right.

Tyler Smith was a gamble on a raw athlete that worked out. Guyton was a gamble on a raw athlete that didn't. I will be honest, I hated both picks on draft day. Booker was just a plain reach.

The Smith and Guyton picks were both at least defensible. Booker though... find me one draft board in the universe that had him ranked over Tyler Warren.

Bingo. They could have signed a guard.

Then they could have had an elite TE like Warren.

Instead they gave an extension to mid tier TE Ferguson who doesn’t make big plays and drops a lot of passes.

 

[thunderpimp91]

The young offensive line is best part of the team. They open holes and protect Dak. Nobody is perfect so why does the line have to be.

They do carry some positive value in the run game, but I don't see how anyone can think this OL does even an average job protecting Dak. Guyton/Steele might be the worst pass blocking duo in the league (slight exaggeration, but not by much). Booker is going through some growing pains and getting steamrolled at times. Even Tyler Smith who I'm not too worried about, but he still hasn't played up to his pro bowl/all pro expectations.

 

[mardwin]

The Cowboys used 3 first round picks in the last 4 years on offensive linemen. And yet, they look like they have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL right now. The theory is taking offensive linemen in the first round ensures a quality offensive line.

So I decided to look at some of the top teams, the Rams, Eagles and Chiefs and how they drafted the last 10 years.

The Eagles have had 10 first round draft picks since 2016. They used 1 on the offensive line. It was Andre Dillard who never played much for the Eagles and is now gone. That was in 2019. The rest of their top rated OL was assembled from other picks and transactions. To be fair, Lane Johnson was a 1st round pick in 2013.

The Chiefs used a 1st round pick on OL this year for the first time since 2013. They have had 6 picks total in the last 10 drafts.

Then I picked another contender that just lost a close game to the Eagles, They have only had 2 1st round picks in the last 10 drafts. Neither was used on offensive line. Given the Rams success in building and rebuilding, are 1st round picks even necessary?

What does this mean. It's not really a large enough sample size, but clearly it shows you don't have to use 1st round picks on the OL to build a good offensive line. This is especially true when finding Centers and Guards, and even then the OTs that succeed are usually taken early in the first round.

Of course if you refuse to play in the free agent market then I supposed you have to use 1st round picks to improve your chances of success.

I think the Cowboys reached for Guyton and Booker. Guyton has looked awful so far. Booker has been a mixed bag. But the question is, could Dallas have used a later pick for a OG and used their 1st round pick for an impact position? Look at all the players in the first round we could have picked, Grant, Walker, Warren, Egbuka, Hampton - all positions of need. I said then that Warren would have made the biggest impact on this offense, but it is possible Egbuka would have made a big impact too and we would not have had to trade for Pickens.

In the meantime, the Dolphins took Jonah Savaiinaea in the 2nd round and he starts at LG and plays pretty well. The Giants picked Marcus Mbow in the 5th round and he is playing a solid LT so far even though he was projected to be a guard coming out of college. The Cowboys didn't need to take Booker so early, but it is decisions like this that have a ripple effect on the rest of the draft and eventually the roster. Good teams are good because they get these decision right.

Besides Tyler Smith, there are question marks everywhere.

Guyton - Wasn't a first-round talent coming out OU. Looks like a backup more than anything.
BeBee - Has been average at center. Maybe he should have moved to RG instead.
Booker - He's a rookie, can't form an opinion based on 3 games but it was a reach at #12.
Steele - I don't know what this guy does well because he's always getting beat.

 

[DeaconMoss]

Bingo. They could have signed a guard.

Then they could have had an elite TE like Warren.

Instead they gave an extension to mid tier TE Ferguson who doesn’t make big plays and drops a lot of passes.

or Ebuka. Then no need to trade for Pickens

 

[baltcowboy]

They do carry some positive value in the run game, but I don't see how anyone can think this OL does even an average job protecting Dak. Guyton/Steele might be the worst pass blocking duo in the league (slight exaggeration, but not by much). Booker is going through some growing pains and getting steamrolled at times. Even Tyler Smith who I'm not too worried about, but he still hasn't played up to his pro bowl/all pro expectations.

Pass blocking is the worst part of the line for sure but we are a superior run blocking team. The offensive line is fine. The defense…… Everything is on the table.

 

[thunderpimp91]

I don't mind going OL in the 1st round, but the issue is the expectations for an early OL pick is that they are able to start right away and be around league average. You can find developmental OL prospects later on in the draft. I was never a big fan of the Guyton pick because he was largely viewed as a developmental player and more of a measurables pick than a tape pick. Booker I still like, but the expectation for a Guard that high is a routine pro bowl caliber player. You also have the issue that he was a poor measurables but excellent tape guy, the exact inverse of Guyton. I'm still very bullish on Booker, but I do suspect he ends up being more good than great to justify the 12th pick. If you're going to gamble on a sleeper 1st round OL Tyler Smith should be the example to go off of. Fantastic tape, fantastic measurables. The issue there was a small school along with a penalty issue. That's a reasonable risk IMO.

 

[Mr_437]

I'm not going to bash drafting the trenches, but don't draft a project in the 1st round and expect him to perform like a 1st round talent just cause you drafted him there.

Cooper Beebe was a battle tested, experienced OG, and that's the type of OL to draft, meanwhile, Guyton had like 11starts c'mon man.

Right now, with CeeDee injury and the construction of this offense, and team for this matter...the offense should shift to being run heavy. Do what the OL does best and help protect this sorry defense...shorten the games. Go find another RB to help carry the load with Javonte and run, run, run.

 

[montgod]

Bingo. They could have signed a guard.

Then they could have had an elite TE like Warren.

Instead they gave an extension to mid tier TE Ferguson who doesn’t make big plays and drops a lot of passes.

or Ebuka. Then no need to trade for Pickens

You are correct, all these could have happened if a plan was in place before the offseason began on who to target in free agency, as well as your own free agents (keep or trade before draft), but alas, winging it and waiting till the last minute provides you with fewer options and less flexibility - the keys to a successful franchise.

 

[Robster8989]

Great post Creeper. I appreciate your thoughtfulness and thoroughness,
It's a great topic for conversation on the board.
We have indeed invested heavily on the O line.
In a way, I think the success of the O line from the Tyron/TFred/Zach years played a big part. Those picks were home runs and we built a great line, so the FO feels "safe" drafting high there.

I wasn't wild about the Guyton pick (though I liked the move back to get Beebe). I just don't think you can send a guy (Guyton), with little football experience (had only 2 years of organized football), out there on Sundays in this uber talented league. (and especially when you ask him to change positions, as he was a RT at Oklahoma). That is a recipe for failure.

Guyton is a mammoth of a man, but he needs some honing in order to be successful in the NFL. At OU, just his size and strength was enough to dominate most Sat. afternoons. In the NFL, you need a lot more than that. So much talent on the DLine (especially Edge)
You need fundamentals and experience. So the Cowboys put him in a position to fail (and fail he is).

Looking at the Eagles line, they have 7th/2nd/2nd/3rd/1st, with Lane being the lone 1st rounder in 2013. I think one thing the Eagles do much better than the Cowboys is develop their players. Mialata was a 7th round pick with no American football experience whatsoever. Yet they selected him and developed him for 2 full years before throwing him out there. Today is the #1 rated LT in the league. We tried a similar tactic with Isaac Alarcon, but he didn't seem to improve as a player the whole time we had him. It was like he developed no football fundamentals, while Mialata learned the game well. The footwork, the way to use your hands, staying balanced etc.
They are seeing the same success this year with Steen, as he has stepped in in his 3rd year and become a very solid starter. With the Cowboys it's always like we need a starter so let's draft one in the first round.
I am worried about Guyton, and I don't think it's all his fault. Booker will be a solid player IMO, though I think we was over drafted a bit. Though even Booker suffers from the "next Zach Martin" syndrome. That is so much pressure to put on a young man, to replace a HOF player. Better to be Sheen: get drafted, develop and work with the coaches until you're ready, then go out there and be put in a position to succeed. I think we oftentimes put our young guys in a position to fail, like Guyton.

 

[big dog cowboy]

It's not really a large enough sample size

And yet you proceed to rip them.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Pass blocking is the worst part of the line for sure but we are a superior run blocking team. The offensive line is fine. The defense…… Everything is on the table.

Its great that we are a superior run blocking team, and to a large extent I would agree with that. The issue is pass blocking is almost always going to be the standard for a good OL. Only a few teams each year actually run the ball more than they pass it, and those teams will almost always have a mobile QB adding 100+ scrambles each year. If you can't consistently protect your QB you can't be in the starting lineup, and it doesn't matter how good you are in the run game. Too many major negative plays that effect the outcome of games come from poor pass protection.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Guyton was a gamble on a raw athlete that didn't.

Huh??????

 

[Johannes44]

Right now, with CeeDee injury and the construction of this offense, and team for this matter...the offense should shift to being run heavy. Do what the OL does best and help protect this sorry defense...shorten the games. Go find another RB to help carry the load with Javonte and run, run, run.

Yep, they should operate how Baltimore operated with Dilfer at QB. No really big WR weapons. Shannon Sharpe was their TE and they went run heavy. Minimal work for Dilfer. Lean on the line and batter the defense. This also means that the ball is controlled by the offense putting less emphasis on the defense being left exposed.

 

[DasTex]

I'm not going to bash drafting the trenches, but don't draft a project in the 1st round and expect him to perform like a 1st round talent just cause you drafted him there.

Cooper Beebe was a battle tested, experienced OG, and that's the type of OL to draft, meanwhile, Guyton had like 11starts c'mon man.

Right now, with CeeDee injury and the construction of this offense, and team for this matter...the offense should shift to being run heavy. Do what the OL does best and help protect this sorry defense...shorten the games. Go find another RB to help carry the load with Javonte and run, run, run.

For them to stand a chance, this is what has to happen. Keep your defense off the field.

The problem is, they get one bad holding call and that drive is almost certainly sunk - then your gonna be chasing points because teams will score at will vs this zone these players are still trying to figure out how to run.

 

[tm1119]

Yep, they should operate how Baltimore operated with Dilfer at QB. No really big WR weapons. Shannon Sharpe was their TE and they went run heavy. Minimal work for Dilfer. Lean on the line and batter the defense. This also means that the ball is controlled by the offense putting less emphasis on the defense being left exposed.

You’re leaving out the minor detail of Baltimore having arguably the greatest defense in league history and ours….isnt.

You can’t run a “grind them down” slow paced offense when you’re losing.