Let's remove Pacman, T.O., and the emotional stuff from the equation for a second. A sober analysis of the Cowboys finds that they have:
- DeMarcus Ware, probably the best pass rusher in the NFL, if not the best all-around defender.
- Jason Witten, the best tight end in the conference.
- Roy Williams, a hastily-acquired big name receiver whose reputation is slightly bigger than his career performance.
- An offense laden with skill position talent and a 3-4 defense that generates tons of sacks.
- A que sera sera head coach who answers to a high-profile executive.
Do you recognize them yet? The Cowboys are the 2007 Chargers! Like those Chargers, the Cowboys are suffering through an early-season confidence crisis. The Chargers spent the first half of last season questioning their coaches and one another after a series of baffling losses. But the Chargers pulled themselves together, won eight straight games, and ended up playing for the AFC title.
The Cowboys, like the Chargers, are too good to keep losing the way they have. Injuries and suspensions have depleted the Cowboys secondary, but their front seven is strong enough to keep most quarterbacks from picking them apart. Once Tony Romo returns, their offense will click again. They aren't as good as their preseason and September press. They may be closer to the .500-level team predicted by
Pro Football Prospectus. They will have trouble beating good opponents like the Giants and Steelers in the second half of their schedule. But the Cowboys are still good enough to keep their nose in the playoff picture. They will play out their schedule as a high variance team, capable of beating the best and losing to the worst.
If Romo was healthy, the Cowboys would beat the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are a very good team, but they have no receiving corps. The Cowboys' weakness is their secondary, and the way to beat them is to attack down the field. The Bucs cannot play that type of football. Luckily for Jon Gruden and friends, Romo is doubtful. The Bucs will put enough heat on Brad Johnson to turn this game into an attrition war, the kind the Bucs know how to win.
I'll omit the "T.O. Goes Bonkers" caveat, because you know all about that. Take the
Bucs to win, but be prepared for the Cowboys to enjoy a Chargers-like second life this season.
