2011 Packers (15-1) had the worst defense

[khiladi]

A team that scores 20 every game in the modern NFL is below average. A team that scores 30 every other game must have big play potential but is inconsistent.

Based on averages, the 20 points per game team is likely to be 0-16 while the other team is likely to be 8-8.

If you had said one team always scores 30 while the other team alternates between 40 and 20, then it would be different; although, it's still difficult to know because if the team has a super long time of possession while only scoring 20 and the team that always scores 30 has very short time of possession, then the opposing offense is likely to score less against the team with the longer TOP.

Really, because there were seven teams below a 20 point average. Further, to be middle of the pack, you'd only have to average 23, not 30 points per game like your baseless analogy. That just requires a little more tweaking.

But then again, that has nothing to do with the point. As I said, it was a crude example. Teams often score between 10 and 20, considering 7 teams average it. Teams don't on average score between 30 and 40, because every team besides the Broncos was below 30.

 

[percyhoward]

It all depends on the definition of 'efficiency'. My offense is more efficient at scoring points across games then yours is. And in the end, it's about winning games.

This discussion is so theoretical we might as well be having it in Fantasyland. All else being equal there is no advantage to scoring 20 and 20 as opposed to 30 and 10.

To bring it back to reality, add a situational context and apply it to 2013.That's where you're going with this anyway, so cut to the chase. Dallas moves up in the ranking when you filter out points scored when the margin was greater than 8 points. IOW, the offense's numbers were not skewed by "garbage time" scores.

 

[DFWJC]

The records for teams with the worst total defense rank the 3 years previous to the Packers feat were...
4-12
2-14
0-16

Other than GB, no team has ever made the playoffs (at least in the 20 years I reviewed) with the worst total defense rank...and more often than not they are a last place team.

8-8 was the second best record ever, btw.

 

[percyhoward]

The records for teams with the worst total defense rank the 3 years previous to the Packers feat were...
4-12
2-14
0-16

Other than GB, no team has ever made the playoffs (at least in the 20 years I reviewed) with the worst total defense rank...and more often than not they are a last place team.

8-8 was the second best record ever, btw.

You really should check out defensive passer rating. Take two defenses that allow exactly the same yardage total, one with a 1:1 INT/TD ratio, the other with a 1:4. The won-loss record and DPR will show you that they were two vastly different defenses, while total yards makes them appear as equals.

 

[DFWJC]

You really should check out defensive passer rating. Take two defenses that allow exactly the same yardage total, one with a 1:1 INT/TD ratio, the other with a 1:4. The won-loss record and DPR will show you that they were two vastly different defenses, while total yards makes them appear as equals.

Oh, I agree. I was just saying that even on a simplified total defense basis, having an 8-8 record was pretty unusual.

Turnover ratio (and differential) is huge though.

 

[theSHOW]

The 2011 Packers team that went 15-1 had the 32nd ranked defense in the league.

I found that interesting because there have been some questions about how much the Cowboys offense could carry the team this year if the defense just improved a little.

Cowboys 2013 415.3 yards/game

Packers 2011 411.6 yards/game

What saved the Packers defense was that they were tied for 1st in total takeaways with 38.

In 2013, the Cowboys were tied for 13th with 28 total takeaways.

if we could just get under 411.6



So you're saying we got a chance?

 

[theSHOW]

What is interesting is that the Cowboys were 14th in yardage allowed in 2012 but last 29th in takeaways as compared to 32nd and 8th in 2013. That's a big improvement on the takeaways.

and Matt "Takeaway" Johnson wasn't even on the field.

 

[theSHOW]

It seems apparent that the takeaways were what allowed them to be 8-8. Without the takeaways they would likely have had a much worse record considering that the defense was last in yards allowed.

I will reiterate my original example. If a team gave up a lot of yards but got an interception each time the defense was on the field, then the other team would never score. It seems highly likely that if two teams had the same offense and both teams gave up 400 yards per game but 1 defense had 1 turnover per game while the other had 3 turnovers per game, the team with more turnovers is highly likely to win significantly more games.

You are not taking into consideration that the defense could conceivably give up 6 points each possession while picking off the 2 point conversion each and very time.

 

[theSHOW]

Total yards doesn' t correlate to wins. It's a meaningless statistic. Green Bay led the NFL that year in a category called pass rating differential. This past season, Denver and Seattle were the top two in this category, so it's a great stat. All it is is your offense's pass rating minus your defense's. You basically need a top 10 QB and a top 10 pass defense, both as measured by passer rating.

In Dallas we have a perennial top 10 QB with a perennial bottom 10 pass defense, which keeps our differential--and thus our W-L record--in the middle of the league.

everything matters.

 

[theSHOW]

And it doesn't matter how you get the number (Seattle offense 100 - defense 60 = +40)

But those are usually the best teams.

Ah...now you are moving in the right direction. Remember while the past is fact it is gone and only the future can be changed.

 

[tantrix1969]

and Matt "Takeaway" Johnson wasn't even on the field.

Pretty sure it's Matt "Cartaway" Johnson

 

[theSHOW]

Pretty sure it's Matt "Cartaway" Johnson

No. One thing about Matt is he has never been in the stretcher. Or golfcart

 

[perrykemp]

Other than GB, no team has ever made the playoffs (at least in the 20 years I reviewed) with the worst total defense rank...and more often than not they are a last place team.

8-8 was the second best record ever, btw.

Beyond having the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL, the Packers had the 27th ranked running attack.

So in other words, they had no defense and no running game. Rodger's 45 TDs and 6 INTs carried the day until the playoffs where they needed a semblance of balance -- didn't have, an lost in the 1st round.

 

[khiladi]

This discussion is so theoretical we might as well be having it in Fantasyland. All else being equal there is no advantage to scoring 20 and 20 as opposed to 30 and 10.

To bring it back to reality, add a situational context and apply it to 2013.That's where you're going with this anyway, so cut to the chase. Dallas moves up in the ranking when you filter out points scored when the margin was greater than 8 points. IOW, the offense's numbers were not skewed by "garbage time" scores.

Your talking about me being 'theoretical' and then following it up with 'all else being equal'? Since when is 'all else being equal' more close to reality than 'all else not being equal', especially in a football game? Are you seriously going to tell me there is no advantage to scoring 20 and 20, as opposed to 30 and 10, based on averages per season, when the scoring average of the worst team was 15 points per game with Jackonsville? I mean in probability alone, based on those averages, there is a clear advantage of going just by the numbers of 20-20. Before we go any further, you do realize I'm not arguing that one must achieve some mathematical formula to prove some point about how we won or lost with these averages, you are...

As far as 2013 and 8 points, I have no idea what your talking about... All that proves is Dallas moves up in ranking when they are behind by eight points. How does above 8 points qualify as garbage time? If a team is up by above 8 in the first, does that qualify as garbage time? Further, for all I know, other offenses were not in that situation as much, because their offense, when they took the lead just put the pedal to the medal and widened the gap. They would not have been as much in the situation as say Dallas, for them to move up in the ranking.

 

[khiladi]

The reality is, you can try and spin out of it any way one wants with numbers, but Wade Wilson moved up to the booth. Some speculated that Garrett took back the reigns from Callahan, because the offense was allegedly not performing up to par. We got a new OC this off-season and Callahan wasn't allowed to go anywhere though, retaining his work with the running game. And Garrett was called out for interfering too much and relegated to wandering the sidelines on defense...

 

[DFWJC]

Beyond having the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL, the Packers had the 27th ranked running attack.

So in other words, they had no defense and no running game. Rodger's 45 TDs and 6 INTs carried the day until the playoffs where they needed a semblance of balance -- didn't have, an lost in the 1st round.

No doubt, it was impressive what they did given the imbalance.
The defense was great at getting turnovers and middle of the pack in scoring, but most would agree that the passing offense and Rodgers was historically good that year.

Put it this way, the second best effort in 20 years was Dallas last year at 8-8 (8-7 with TR under center) ...and that's a long ways from 15-1, but way better than the more common 4-12 or so that would be expected.

 

[percyhoward]

Your talking about me being 'theoretical' and then following it up with 'all else being equal'?

In a theoretical discussion, all else kinda has to be equal, yeah. I think you were about to show how the offense's ranking was inflated though, so by all means go ahead.

 

[khiladi]

In a theoretical discussion, all else kinda has to be equal, yeah. I think you were about to show how the offense's ranking was inflated though, so by all means go ahead.

Did I say all else kind of being equal or you said it?

 

[Tawney88]

No. One thing about Matt is he has never been in the stretcher. Or golfcart

Another thing is he has yet to play one meaningful snap in two years.

 

[Hoofbite]

Made any headway on an agreement?