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2016 NFL Draft: Finding Playmaking Cornerbacks In This Year's Draft Class
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2016...ng-playmaking-cornerbacks-in-this-years-draft
...To kick things off, and to get a feel for the metric, let's look at the Production Points for the top corners (as measured by Approximate Value) from the 2011-2014 draft classes.
NFLCollege ProductionProduction
Points
Round (Pick)PlayerTeamPOSApprox. Val.TklTFLQBHSACKPBUFFINTGames
Class of 2014
4 (102)Bashaud BreelandWASCB12897.5131324238.8
1 (14)Kyle FullerCHICB11765.01- -1524237.9
1 (25)Jason VerrettSDCB101028.51130182412.2
Class of 2013
1 (22)Desmond TrufantATLCB19100501.52233259.0
3 (69)Tyrann MatthieuARICB161331646.0161142613.3
Class of 2012
2 (39)Janoris JenkinsSTLCB25828.511.01415267.6
5 (143)Josh NormanCARCB231185.01- -21332310.4
1 (10)Stephon GilmoreBUFCB191259.054.09272710.1
Class of 2011
5 (154)Richard ShermanSEACB661121.0- -- -1726268.9
1 (5)Patrick PetersonAZCB63941.51- -1906268.1
As measured by Approximate Value, the ten players above are the top cornerbacks in their respective draft classes. Going by their Production Points and the data we've gathered over the years, it seems that a score of around 8.5 is average, a score above 10.0 suggests very high college productivity, thus possibly foreshadowing future NFL success, and anything above 12.0 is exceptional.
The Cowboys have drafted a corner in each of the last four years. In case you are wondering, these are their Production Points:
2012: Morris Caliborne (9.0)
2013: B.W. Webb (6.7)
2014: Terrance Mitchell (7.5)
2015: Byron Jones: (8.9)
...
The Scout's Trifecta:
Nine players in the table above have 10 or more Production Points. All but one (Deiondré Hall from Northern Iowa) are from FBS colleges. Four of those players are ranked in the top 100, suggesting good tape. That completes the Trifecta, but we'll add one more Cowboys-specific indicator: the Cowboys like their CB archetype to be 6'0"+ with long arms. And that leaves us with three prospects that should find themselves high on the Cowboys board for the draft.
3 - Jalen Ramsey, CB/S, Florida State, 6-1, 202 - 10.3 points
87 - Xavien Howard, Baylor, 6-1, 200 - 10.2 points
89 - Sean Davis, CB/S, Maryland, 6-1, 201, 13.0 points
All three prospects fit the hybrid corner/safety prospect the Cowboys had success with when they drafted Byron Jones. All three give the Cowboys a coveted "plus" corner and are remarkably similar in terms of size and weight.
We can now successively relax the trifecta criteria to include more prospects.
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2016...ng-playmaking-cornerbacks-in-this-years-draft
...To kick things off, and to get a feel for the metric, let's look at the Production Points for the top corners (as measured by Approximate Value) from the 2011-2014 draft classes.
NFLCollege ProductionProduction
Points
Round (Pick)PlayerTeamPOSApprox. Val.TklTFLQBHSACKPBUFFINTGames
Class of 2014
4 (102)Bashaud BreelandWASCB12897.5131324238.8
1 (14)Kyle FullerCHICB11765.01- -1524237.9
1 (25)Jason VerrettSDCB101028.51130182412.2
Class of 2013
1 (22)Desmond TrufantATLCB19100501.52233259.0
3 (69)Tyrann MatthieuARICB161331646.0161142613.3
Class of 2012
2 (39)Janoris JenkinsSTLCB25828.511.01415267.6
5 (143)Josh NormanCARCB231185.01- -21332310.4
1 (10)Stephon GilmoreBUFCB191259.054.09272710.1
Class of 2011
5 (154)Richard ShermanSEACB661121.0- -- -1726268.9
1 (5)Patrick PetersonAZCB63941.51- -1906268.1
As measured by Approximate Value, the ten players above are the top cornerbacks in their respective draft classes. Going by their Production Points and the data we've gathered over the years, it seems that a score of around 8.5 is average, a score above 10.0 suggests very high college productivity, thus possibly foreshadowing future NFL success, and anything above 12.0 is exceptional.
The Cowboys have drafted a corner in each of the last four years. In case you are wondering, these are their Production Points:
2012: Morris Caliborne (9.0)
2013: B.W. Webb (6.7)
2014: Terrance Mitchell (7.5)
2015: Byron Jones: (8.9)
...
The Scout's Trifecta:
Nine players in the table above have 10 or more Production Points. All but one (Deiondré Hall from Northern Iowa) are from FBS colleges. Four of those players are ranked in the top 100, suggesting good tape. That completes the Trifecta, but we'll add one more Cowboys-specific indicator: the Cowboys like their CB archetype to be 6'0"+ with long arms. And that leaves us with three prospects that should find themselves high on the Cowboys board for the draft.
3 - Jalen Ramsey, CB/S, Florida State, 6-1, 202 - 10.3 points
87 - Xavien Howard, Baylor, 6-1, 200 - 10.2 points
89 - Sean Davis, CB/S, Maryland, 6-1, 201, 13.0 points
All three prospects fit the hybrid corner/safety prospect the Cowboys had success with when they drafted Byron Jones. All three give the Cowboys a coveted "plus" corner and are remarkably similar in terms of size and weight.
We can now successively relax the trifecta criteria to include more prospects.
- Deiondré Hall may not have gone to one of the big-name schools but ticks all the other boxes and was the 2015 Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year after forcing nine turnovers in his senior season (six interceptions, three forced fumbles).
- Daryl Worley (not the country music guy) posted nine interceptions and 16 pass breakups in the last two seasons in the Big 12. He has the size, the ball skills, and the big-school pedigree, but has some off-field red flags: he was arrested and pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor assault charge, was briefly suspend by his team for it in 2014, and missed the 2015 Bowl game for academic reasons.
- Houston's William Jackson (9.8 PPts) and Virginia Tech's Kendall Fuller (9.6 PPts) miss double-digit Production points by the slimmest of margins, but otherwise meet all the trifecta criteria and are tall guys at 6-1 and 6-0 respectively.
- We have two more small-school prospects (Cre'von Leblanc and LeShaun Sims) with above average Production Points and above average height to consider, perhaps one of them might be worth using one of the comp picks in the sixth round on, but they are long shots...