CCBoy
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 47,005
- Reaction score
- 22,604
2016 NFL Free Agency: Defensive Ends Overview
Muhammad Wilkerson, Jets
Wilkerson needed a big statistical season to cement his argument that he is the second best 34 DE in the NFL and he is having that season. Wilkerson currently projects to be the only free agent defensive end to hit double digit sacks this year and will likely be right near the top in tackles and tackles for loss. He is also one of the rare players that will play almost every snap and you do not need to rotate in and out for certain situations because he is such a well rounded player. If there is something to nitpick about Wilkerson it is the fact that he is not as consistent a rusher as some others. He is able to turn pressures into sacks at a very high rate, but the pressure rate is not as high as some of the others.
The Jets have dragged their feet on re-signing Wilkerson which leads me to believe they will franchise tag him with the intent to trade. That doesn’t mean at the end of the day he will not remain with the Jets but it seems clear they don’t view him as a difference make the way the Bills perhaps saw a Marcell Dareus which someone else probably will.
I think it would be easy to picture the Commanders, Chiefs, Browns and 49ers all at least showing interest for the right price. Wilkerson will be looking to top Dareus’ contract if he gets the chance to sell himself in free agency. Though nobody is a sure bet in free agency he is probably as close to a sure thing as there is unless you convince yourself you are getting Watt when you make the signing.
Projected Value: 5 years, $73-79 million
Greg Hardy, Cowboys
There is no questioning Hardy’s talent, but his off the field issues and general attitude make him incredibly difficult to take a risk on. Hardy had limited interest last season which made the Cowboys decision to hand over an $11+ million contract surprising. Nothing Hardy did this year should change a team’s perspective on him. You would have thought that he would have acted contrite and been on best behavior but he basically flaunted the fact that he did not miss more than four games this season and then was seen in some heated conversations with coaches and others on the team. I’m not sure who gave him advice but if this was the advice they gave him he or she should be fired.
On the field Hardy is one of the better pass rushers in the league. Had he played 16 games this year he would have reached double digit sacks for the third consecutive year. He is not the complete player that some others are but he isn’t a liability in other aspects of the game either. He will be 28 next season which is a bit on the older end for first time free agency, but there are plenty of players in their late 20s and early 30s still playing out massive contracts.
Hardy must be banking on Dallas re-upping him because there is no other reason to explain his behavior in a walk year and Dallas has basically been an enabler for him. If Dallas does not sign him I have a hard time judging a salary range. Part of me believes he would wind up in the same place Michael Bennett did when he first signed with Seattle for just under $5 million when he had almost no market, but at the same time his talent level is so high that seems too low. The problem is 2015 was supposed to be his rehab season and he’s done nothing to rehab his image and the same off the field will follow him.
The projection will be based on Dallas fighting to keep him and raising the price high. If they don’t I think you look at another one year contract probably between $6 and $8 million.
Projected Value: 4 years, $47-$52 million...
The Free Agent Market
PlayerTeamAgeSnap CountProj. GamesProj. SacksProj TacklesProj. AssistsProj TFL
Muhammad WilkersonJets2792.1%1611.639.326.210.2
Greg HardyCowboys2848.0%127.720.610.38.6
Olivier VernonDolphins2676.8%165.834.914.516.0
Malik JacksonBroncos2674.2%165.833.513.18.7
Mike DanielsPackers2769.1%165.332.022.78.0
Vinny CurryEagles2830.2%165.18.72.95.8
Jason JonesLions3056.4%164.730.72.78.0
Antonio SmithBroncos3538.1%163.67.32.92.9
William HayesRams3150.3%163.629.121.85.8
Phillip HuntSaints306.7%73.521.03.57.0
Robert AyersGiants3137.6%123.420.66.93.4
Derek WolfeBroncos2646.9%123.441.117.18.6
Andre BranchJaguars2742.4%133.313.01.64.9
Mike DeVitoChiefs3229.6%143.114.07.86.2
Wallace GilberryBengals3258.1%162.916.08.74.4
Kroy BiermannFalcons3148.8%162.937.821.80.0
Adrian ClaybornFalcons2849.7%162.916.00.04.4
Jared CrickTexans2779.5%162.929.121.82.9
Derrick ShelbyDolphins2767.3%162.920.410.24.4
Kendall ReyesChargers2763.2%162.929.15.87.3
Darryl TappLions3238.7%162.721.36.76.7
Justin TuckRaiders3330.5%102.014.014.06.0
Eugene SimsRams3041.8%131.69.86.51.6
Cedric ThorntonEagles2844.7%141.624.912.46.2
Ricardo MathewsChargers2949.5%161.510.27.31.5
David KingChiefs277.1%91.12.34.50.0
George SelvieGiants2937.1%140.815.615.61.6
Jeremy MinceyCowboys3343.6%150.015.09.01.5
Stephen BowenJets3212.2%150.01.51.51.5
Red BryantCardinals322.0%60.06.06.00.0
Leger DouzableJets3032.5%160.011.65.81.5
Cam ThomasSteelers3019.0%150.012.01.53.0
Larry EnglishBuccaneers300.0%00.00.00.00.0
Corey WoottonLions290.0%00.00.00.00.0
Clifton GeathersSteelers290.0%00000.0
Frank KearseRedskins281.7%60.00.012.00.0
Justin TrattouVikings280.8%70.03.50.00.0
Billy WinnColts2731.2%140.07.89.31.6
Jason Pierre-PaulGiants2722.3%80.010.75.32.7
Tyrunn WalkerLions2624.2%90.011.39.02.3
Mike MartinTitans267.1%100.04.02.00.0
http://overthecap.com/2016-nfl-free-agency-defensive-ends-overview/
Muhammad Wilkerson, Jets
Wilkerson needed a big statistical season to cement his argument that he is the second best 34 DE in the NFL and he is having that season. Wilkerson currently projects to be the only free agent defensive end to hit double digit sacks this year and will likely be right near the top in tackles and tackles for loss. He is also one of the rare players that will play almost every snap and you do not need to rotate in and out for certain situations because he is such a well rounded player. If there is something to nitpick about Wilkerson it is the fact that he is not as consistent a rusher as some others. He is able to turn pressures into sacks at a very high rate, but the pressure rate is not as high as some of the others.
The Jets have dragged their feet on re-signing Wilkerson which leads me to believe they will franchise tag him with the intent to trade. That doesn’t mean at the end of the day he will not remain with the Jets but it seems clear they don’t view him as a difference make the way the Bills perhaps saw a Marcell Dareus which someone else probably will.
I think it would be easy to picture the Commanders, Chiefs, Browns and 49ers all at least showing interest for the right price. Wilkerson will be looking to top Dareus’ contract if he gets the chance to sell himself in free agency. Though nobody is a sure bet in free agency he is probably as close to a sure thing as there is unless you convince yourself you are getting Watt when you make the signing.
Projected Value: 5 years, $73-79 million
Greg Hardy, Cowboys
There is no questioning Hardy’s talent, but his off the field issues and general attitude make him incredibly difficult to take a risk on. Hardy had limited interest last season which made the Cowboys decision to hand over an $11+ million contract surprising. Nothing Hardy did this year should change a team’s perspective on him. You would have thought that he would have acted contrite and been on best behavior but he basically flaunted the fact that he did not miss more than four games this season and then was seen in some heated conversations with coaches and others on the team. I’m not sure who gave him advice but if this was the advice they gave him he or she should be fired.
On the field Hardy is one of the better pass rushers in the league. Had he played 16 games this year he would have reached double digit sacks for the third consecutive year. He is not the complete player that some others are but he isn’t a liability in other aspects of the game either. He will be 28 next season which is a bit on the older end for first time free agency, but there are plenty of players in their late 20s and early 30s still playing out massive contracts.
Hardy must be banking on Dallas re-upping him because there is no other reason to explain his behavior in a walk year and Dallas has basically been an enabler for him. If Dallas does not sign him I have a hard time judging a salary range. Part of me believes he would wind up in the same place Michael Bennett did when he first signed with Seattle for just under $5 million when he had almost no market, but at the same time his talent level is so high that seems too low. The problem is 2015 was supposed to be his rehab season and he’s done nothing to rehab his image and the same off the field will follow him.
The projection will be based on Dallas fighting to keep him and raising the price high. If they don’t I think you look at another one year contract probably between $6 and $8 million.
Projected Value: 4 years, $47-$52 million...
The Free Agent Market
PlayerTeamAgeSnap CountProj. GamesProj. SacksProj TacklesProj. AssistsProj TFL
Muhammad WilkersonJets2792.1%1611.639.326.210.2
Greg HardyCowboys2848.0%127.720.610.38.6
Olivier VernonDolphins2676.8%165.834.914.516.0
Malik JacksonBroncos2674.2%165.833.513.18.7
Mike DanielsPackers2769.1%165.332.022.78.0
Vinny CurryEagles2830.2%165.18.72.95.8
Jason JonesLions3056.4%164.730.72.78.0
Antonio SmithBroncos3538.1%163.67.32.92.9
William HayesRams3150.3%163.629.121.85.8
Phillip HuntSaints306.7%73.521.03.57.0
Robert AyersGiants3137.6%123.420.66.93.4
Derek WolfeBroncos2646.9%123.441.117.18.6
Andre BranchJaguars2742.4%133.313.01.64.9
Mike DeVitoChiefs3229.6%143.114.07.86.2
Wallace GilberryBengals3258.1%162.916.08.74.4
Kroy BiermannFalcons3148.8%162.937.821.80.0
Adrian ClaybornFalcons2849.7%162.916.00.04.4
Jared CrickTexans2779.5%162.929.121.82.9
Derrick ShelbyDolphins2767.3%162.920.410.24.4
Kendall ReyesChargers2763.2%162.929.15.87.3
Darryl TappLions3238.7%162.721.36.76.7
Justin TuckRaiders3330.5%102.014.014.06.0
Eugene SimsRams3041.8%131.69.86.51.6
Cedric ThorntonEagles2844.7%141.624.912.46.2
Ricardo MathewsChargers2949.5%161.510.27.31.5
David KingChiefs277.1%91.12.34.50.0
George SelvieGiants2937.1%140.815.615.61.6
Jeremy MinceyCowboys3343.6%150.015.09.01.5
Stephen BowenJets3212.2%150.01.51.51.5
Red BryantCardinals322.0%60.06.06.00.0
Leger DouzableJets3032.5%160.011.65.81.5
Cam ThomasSteelers3019.0%150.012.01.53.0
Larry EnglishBuccaneers300.0%00.00.00.00.0
Corey WoottonLions290.0%00.00.00.00.0
Clifton GeathersSteelers290.0%00000.0
Frank KearseRedskins281.7%60.00.012.00.0
Justin TrattouVikings280.8%70.03.50.00.0
Billy WinnColts2731.2%140.07.89.31.6
Jason Pierre-PaulGiants2722.3%80.010.75.32.7
Tyrunn WalkerLions2624.2%90.011.39.02.3
Mike MartinTitans267.1%100.04.02.00.0
http://overthecap.com/2016-nfl-free-agency-defensive-ends-overview/
