2017 Force Players

[Yuma Cactus]

Posted on April 15, 2017April 15, 2017 by jefe
Justis Mosqueda

Force Players is a combine metric study I have been running for pass-rushers for years. You can find most of the numbers I’m going to cite, updated through the 2016 draft class, on Playmaker Mentality.

Here’s the gist of it:

• The athletic backgrounds of pass-rushing prospects matters a lot. The problem is, many don’t realize that combine numbers need to be adjusted for density when talking about line of scrimmage defenders. While 10-yard splits are more important than 40-yard dashes, I still have yet to see a defensive lineman run 10 yards straight into the backfield untouched and make a play. When adding density into the equation, these numbers essentially turn into body explosion and body control through contact, which is exactly what you’re looking for in edge defenders and one-gap defenders in general.
• There are three types of categories for pass-rushers: Force Players (elite athletes), Mid Tiers (near elite athletes whose 10 splits/short shuttles don’t totally add up) and non-Force Players (non-elite athletes).
• First- and second-round Force Players were 8.21 times more likely to be retained by their original team than non-Force Players by their sixth season in the NFL (2005-2011.) I will update these numbers sometime in the offseason for the 2012 class.
• First- and second-round non-Force Players were 12.69 times more likely to be out of the league by their slated sixth season in the NFL than Force Players (2005-2011.) I will update these numbers sometime in the offseason for the 2012 class.
• A third-round Force Player, on average, is equal to a first-round non-Force Player in terms of the player’s averaged three best sack totals in his career. When you take into account of the draft value of first-round picks relative to third-round picks, that’s very interesting. Here is the 2017 update for those numbers. See for yourself.
• Using Force Players/Mid Tiers/non-Force Players, it’s fairly easy to pick who is and isn’t going to be a successful pass-rusher at the NFL, based on their production as a 23-year-old. These thresholds lead me to labeling players as “Prodigy” pass-rushers, on top of their athletic background.

These numbers are why it was easy to see why a Danielle Hunter or Frank Clark were going to be steals for their price point in the draft. It’s why Vic Beasley should have been drafted before Dante Fowler in the 2015 NFL draft.

Read the rest here: http://settingedge.com/movement

 

[stilltheguru88]

The Watt film didn't prove him right. Still want him at 28 and think he's a much better edge rusher than the article gives him credit for.

 

[stilltheguru88]

As pure pass-rushers, there odds seem to be against San Diego’s Joey Bosa and Chicago’s Leonard Floyd, but in favor of Buffalo’s Shaq Lawson.


That's what he wrote last year. Yeah, I'll stick with my opinion of Watt.

 

[Yuma Cactus]

As pure pass-rushers, there odds seem to be against San Diego’s Joey Bosa and Chicago’s Leonard Floyd, but in favor of Buffalo’s Shaq Lawson.


That's what he wrote last year. Yeah, I'll stick with my opinion of Watt.

He seems to be really down on Watt, I think Watt, Bowser and Rivers are the guys who can be "War Daddy's" (other than Miles of course).