2024 NFL draft prospect rankings on NFL (Lance Zierlein)

[morasp]

Year one starters 9 players
Boom or bust 3 players
Good starter w/i 2 years 14 players
Eventual plus starter 25 players
Eventual average starter 40 players
Total 91 players with starter grades

Year one starters
1. 6.86 Malik Nabers WR LSU
2. 6.83 Marvin Harrison Jr. WR OSU
3. 6.74 Caleb Williams QB USC
4. 6.74 Rome Odunze WR Washington
5. 6.73 Jared Verse Edge FSU
6. 6.73 Jayden Daniels QB LSU
7. 6.72 Dallas Turner Edge Alabama
8. 6.71 JC Latham OL Alabama
9. 6.71 Brock Bowers TE Georgia

Boom or bust
10. 6.5 Chop Robinson Edge Penn State
11. 6.5 Laiatu Latu Edge UCLA
12. 6.5 Drake Maye QB North Carolina

Good starter w/i 2 years
13. 6.49 Joe Alt OT Notre Dame
14. 6.48 Byron Murphy II DT Texas
15. 6.48 Taliese Fuaga OL Oregon State
16. 6.47 Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU
17. 6.47 Troy Fautanu OL Washington
18. 6.47 Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo
19. 6.46 Graham Barton OL Duke
20. 6.45 Olumuyiwa Fashanu OL Penn State
21. 6.45 Terrion Arnold CB Alabama
22. 6.43 Nate Wiggins CB Clemson
23. 6.42 Amarius Mims OL Georgia
24. 6.41 Tyler Guyton OL Oklahoma
25. 6.4 Ladd McConkey WR Georgia
26. 6.4 JJ McCarthy QB Michigan

 

[Sydla]

Interesting to see Latham above Alt and Fuaga.

 

[morasp]

Interesting to see Latham above Alt and Fuaga.

It surprised me too especially since he may be a RT only. Lance seems to know a lot of folks and added this quote at the end.

“[This class is] deep at tackle and he’s going to end up being the best of the group. They are all going to get better, but he and (Joe) Alt are the only ones I see operating at a pro level and Latham is better than Alt.” - NFC personnel executive

 

[Killerinstinct]

Not a single RB. That is interesting

 

[Malhavoc]

Go look at his mock draft if you want to pull your hair out,

 

[Sydla]

Go look at his mock draft if you want to pull your hair out,

He has us taking Guyton.

I am confused by his categories. Is he saying only those 9 will start year 1? That seems, odd............

 

[morasp]

He has us taking Guyton.

I am confused by his categories. Is he saying only those 9 will start year 1? That seems, odd............

Their are no guarantees but there is a higher probability those 9 will start and play well this season. The next group is within two years which would include this season there is no reason that some of the 14 but probably not all of them will start at some point during the season and play well. When I broke down last years first round Anton Harrison taken right after our pick started 17 games but the rest started 0.

 

[Sydla]

Their are no guarantees but there is a higher probability those 9 will start and play well this season. The next group is within two years which would include this season there is no reason that some of the 14 but probably not all of them will start at some point during the season and play well. When I broke down last years first round Anton Harrison taken right after our pick started 17 games but the rest started 0.

I mean I think the odds are really, really high that Joe Alt, who likely will go top ten, will start for his team. Same with Fuaga. How many Top 10-12 taken OL don't actually start immediately?

 

[morasp]

Eventual plus starter

27. 6.39 Kool-Aid McKinstry Alabama
28. 6.39 Bo Nix QB Oregon
29. 6.38 Jonathon Brooks RB Texas
30. 6.38 T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
31. 6.37 Junior Colson LB Michigan
32. 6.37 Darius Robinson DE Missouri
33. 6.37 Ja'Tavion Sanders TE Texas
34. 6.36 Cooper DeJean CB Iowa
35. 6.36 Jordan Morgan OT Arizona
36. 6.36 Jer'Zhan Newton DT Illinois
37. 6.36 Jackson Powers-John C Oregon
38. 6.35 Malachi Corley WR Western Kentucky
39. 6.35 Troy Franklin WR Oregon
40. 6.35 Adonai Mitchell WR TExas
41. 6.35 Ennis Rakestraw Jr. CB Missouri
42. 6.34 Braden Fiske DT Florida State
43. 6.34 Renardo Green CB Florida State
44. 6.33 Tyler Nubin SAF Minnesota
45. 6.33 Jaylen Wright RB Tennessee
46. 6.32 Ricky Pearsall WR Florida
47. 6.32 Payton Wilson LB N.C. State
48. 6.30 Austin Booker Edge Kansas
49. 6.30 D.J. James CB Auburn
50. 6.30 Kris Jenkins DT Michigan
51. 6.30 Roman Wilson WR Michigan

 

[morasp]

I mean I think the odds are really, really high that Joe Alt, who likely will go top ten, will start for his team. Same with Fuaga. How many Top 10-12 taken OL don't actually start immediately?

I would think so barring injury. The other thing is excluding trades, teams picking at the top probably don't have as good of a starting roster.

Last year first year starters were
6.84 Bijan Robinson RB 16 GS
6.82 Bryce Young QB 16 GS
6.77 Tyree Wilson 0 Edge GS I think some sort of foot injury
6.73 Peter Skoronski OL 14 GS
6.7 CJ Stroud QB 15 GS
6.7 Christian Gonzales CB 4 GS injury

OL Starter w/i 2 years
6.4 Darnell Wright OT 17 GS
6.44 Broderick Jones OT 11 GS