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Sophomore Slumps? Second Year QB Predictions
Every young gunslinger out of college wants a shot at being the starting quarterback for their team right from the get-go. The 2006 draft saw three “franchise quarterbacks” taken in the first eleven picks: Vince Young (Tennessee), Matt Leinart (Arizona), and Jay Cutler (Denver). All three of these QBs, as well as several other first-time starters saw significant playing time throughout the year. Some were successful while others had a pretty bumpy ride when they were introduced to the likes of Michael Strahan, Ray Lewis, and Patrick Kearney. However, by the end of 2006 many of these “quarterbacks of the future” were firmly entrenched in the starting job, with Young bringing home the award for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
But now, after getting a few games under the belt, the cobwebs are supposed to be gone. Now they are expected to win, and there is no more room for excuses or “rookie mistakes.” So who is going to shine in 2007? Who is going to suffer from a “Sophomore Slump?” Here is a look at the young QBs with whom teams are pinning their playoff hopes on in 2007.
STUDS IN 2007:
Matt Leinart – Arizona Cardinals, 4-7 as a starter
After suffering enough losses at the hands of Kurt Warner (literally losing games against St. Louis and Atlanta single-handedly), Denny Green opted for young Matt Leinart who quickly established himself as the starter. With 11 starts for the Cards, Leinart and the offense really began to hit full stride as the season closed out, finishing with 11 TDs, 12 INTs, 2547 yards and a passer rating of 74. The most intriguing aspect of Leinart’s game that he brings to the table is his confidence. He doesn’t act like a rookie, he doesn’t talk like a rookie, he doesn’t look like a rookie, and none of his teammates have a problem following him on the field. He set a rookie single game record in the loss to Minnesota going 31-51 with 405 yards passing. He had four multiple touchdown performances and looks to only get better throwing to weapons like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin behind a newly improved offensive line. Similar to what Ken Whisenhunt did with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, look for Leinart to be very efficient, but to not have gaudy numbers.
Prediction: 9-7 as a starter, leading Arizona to its first NFC West title.
Phillip Rivers – San Diego Chargers, 14-2 as a starter
A huge year for Rivers, stepping out from Drew Brees’ shadow and having a pro bowl season: 22 TDs, 9 INTs, 3388 yards and a QB rating of 92. How did he do it? By having the best running back in the game, the #1 or #2 TE in the game (depending on who you talk to, Gates vs. Gonzalez debate), and most importantly, two years of watching, practicing with and learning from veteran Brees. How does he follow it up? With a steady diet of the same; pound the ball with all world back LaDainian Tomlinson, use the run to set up the pass, and kill opponents with screens, dump offs to the TE and all the high percentage passes he made last year. With Norv Turner as the Head Coach you could be worried, but as an offensive coordinator he should really elevate Rivers’ game.
Prediction: 11-5 as a starter, winning the AFC West title again.
Jay Cutler – Denver Broncos, 2-3 as a starter
While missing the playoffs in a tough loss to the 49ers at season’s end last year, Jay Cutler showed why Mike Shanahan has so much confidence that he could be the next great Broncos QB. Cutler threw 2 touchdowns in 4 out of the 5 games on his way to 9 TDs for the year, with 5 INTs and 1001 yards. Showing a very strong arm along with the athleticism to move in the pocket, Cutler finished the year with a passer rating of 88.5. The Broncos have made a lot of great moves in the offseason, bringing in (RB) Travis Henry, (TE) Daniel Graham and WR Brandon Stokleyto give Cutler some new weapons behind a great offensive line. Even in their two back system, look for Cutler to lead Denver to the post season in 2007 and to challenge San Diego for the division title.
Prediction: 10-6 as a starter, resulting in a Wild Card berth in the AFC playoffs.
Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys, 6-4 as a starter
In 10 starts for the Cowboys last year, Romo reinvigorated the franchise and caught fire, throwing 19 TDs, 13 INTs, and amassing 2903 yards through the air with a rating of 95.1 in place of statue……err……starter Drew Bledsoe. Although in his third season with the team, Romo had never thrown a pass in the prior two regular seasons, making his poise on the field all the more impressive. Leading the Cowboys to a birth in the Wild Card, he is now synonymous with the field goal snafu that led to Dallas’ untimely exit from the playoffs in Seattle. But look for Romo to rebound big in 2007. And with Terrell Owens apparently making nice with the Cowboys front office this offseason, along with the return of Terry Glenn and TE Jason Whitten, look for Romo to prove he is not a one-hit wonder.
Prediction: 12-4 as a starter, with Dallas having the top record in the NFC.
DUDS IN 2007
Vince Young – Tennessee Titans, 8-5 as a starter
People will jeer me for this, but I want to make one thing perfectly clear: it’s not going to be Vince Young’s fault that he has a bad year in 2007. Young was spectacular at times in 2006, winning 6 games in a row from weeks 11-16. His constant double threat through the air and on the ground kept defenses on their heels and allowed him to make big plays down the stretch. But his stats are suspect: 12 TDs, 13 INTs, 2199 yards passing and 552 yards rushing with 7 rushing TDs. I say they are suspect because while Young definitely does not appear to be one dimensional (Michael Vick anyone?), he was able to make things happen due to a great running back in Travis Henry. Henry was the Titans best weapon last year, rushing for over 1200 yards in 14 games, often grinding the ball out to set up the big plays for Young and company. But the Titans front office let Travis Henry go with no compensation and have yet to find him a true #1 receiver/deep threat. I don’t believe LenDale White is ready to be a starting back in the NFL, leaving an untested rookie in Chris Henry as a second backfield option. Without the supporting cast that he needed the Titans to pick up in the offseason, I don’t see Vince in the postseason this year. Again, not Vince’s fault, he is a great competitor and athlete, but he can’t do it alone, and in 2007 he’s going to have to.
Prediction: 7-9, third place in the AFC South.
Jason Campbell – Washington Commanders, 2-5 as a starter
Many people in the Skins organization are enamored with this guy…....but I think it’s probably more from a lack of options rather than anything else. Campbell came on for the last seven games of the year and went 2-5 as a starter with 10 TDs, 6 INTs, 1297 yards and a QB rating of 76.5. These appear to be pretty good on paper, but you had to watch these games to understand these stats. He only eclipsed the 200 yard mark 3 times during the year, and just barely (204, 217, 220) despite the fact that he averaged nearly 30 attempts per game. At no time during any of the games he played in did you ever get the feeling that he had taken control. Most of his touchdowns and his two wins were the result of the Commanders getting into a rhythm with their ground attack, allowing for the short yardage plays. His success will hinge on a healthy Clinton Portis. Santana Moss is still one of the best in the game, and TE Chris Cooley has become the team’s #2 receiver, but the team has done little else to help the WR corps. Antwaan Randle-El underachieved last year, and I would expect more of the same. If Portis stays healthy, Campbell will have a productive but unspectacular year. If he’s injured again, Campbell will triple his INTs in '07 trying to make something out of nothing.
Prediction: 6-10, last place in the NFC East
Tavaris Jackson – Minnesota Vikings, 0-3 as a starter
Apparently Brad Childress sees something the rest of the NFL and the fans didn’t see last year from Jackson: the ability to win. Jackson started the last three games of the year in place of aging quarterback Brad Johnson and was less than stellar, ending the season with 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 475 yards and a QB rating of 62.5. Johnson has now departed to Dallas leaving Jackson as the #1 QB on the roster. RB Chester Taylor, combined with the drafting of Adrian Peterson should create a great 1-2 punch behind Steve Hutchinson and the Vikings O-line. But sooner or later, the QB is going to be called on to take over and win the game, and I don’t think Tavaris Jackson is that guy, at least not yet. Without any veterans (I don’t count Brooks Bollinger) brought in to help him develop and with no solid second option at QB, Jackson is going to be tossed into the fire and it’s going to be rough.
Prediction: 8-8, second in the NFC North (only because the ground game will get them there)
So out of all of these young QBs, where do they rank from 1 - 7?
Here are the names again (not rank ordered): Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Vince Young, Tavaris Jackson and Jason Campbell.
How would you rank them?
Found this on a blog on Fox but thought it was a good starter for a thread?His predictions are a bit out there probably because he wanted to grab some attention.
My Ranking
1. Tony Romo
2. Matt Leinart
3. Phillip Rivers
4. Jay Cutler
5. Jason Campbell
6. Vince Young - I really think hes going to bomb out this year.
7. Tavaris Jackson
what do you think?
Every young gunslinger out of college wants a shot at being the starting quarterback for their team right from the get-go. The 2006 draft saw three “franchise quarterbacks” taken in the first eleven picks: Vince Young (Tennessee), Matt Leinart (Arizona), and Jay Cutler (Denver). All three of these QBs, as well as several other first-time starters saw significant playing time throughout the year. Some were successful while others had a pretty bumpy ride when they were introduced to the likes of Michael Strahan, Ray Lewis, and Patrick Kearney. However, by the end of 2006 many of these “quarterbacks of the future” were firmly entrenched in the starting job, with Young bringing home the award for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
But now, after getting a few games under the belt, the cobwebs are supposed to be gone. Now they are expected to win, and there is no more room for excuses or “rookie mistakes.” So who is going to shine in 2007? Who is going to suffer from a “Sophomore Slump?” Here is a look at the young QBs with whom teams are pinning their playoff hopes on in 2007.
STUDS IN 2007:
Matt Leinart – Arizona Cardinals, 4-7 as a starter
After suffering enough losses at the hands of Kurt Warner (literally losing games against St. Louis and Atlanta single-handedly), Denny Green opted for young Matt Leinart who quickly established himself as the starter. With 11 starts for the Cards, Leinart and the offense really began to hit full stride as the season closed out, finishing with 11 TDs, 12 INTs, 2547 yards and a passer rating of 74. The most intriguing aspect of Leinart’s game that he brings to the table is his confidence. He doesn’t act like a rookie, he doesn’t talk like a rookie, he doesn’t look like a rookie, and none of his teammates have a problem following him on the field. He set a rookie single game record in the loss to Minnesota going 31-51 with 405 yards passing. He had four multiple touchdown performances and looks to only get better throwing to weapons like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin behind a newly improved offensive line. Similar to what Ken Whisenhunt did with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, look for Leinart to be very efficient, but to not have gaudy numbers.
Prediction: 9-7 as a starter, leading Arizona to its first NFC West title.
Phillip Rivers – San Diego Chargers, 14-2 as a starter
A huge year for Rivers, stepping out from Drew Brees’ shadow and having a pro bowl season: 22 TDs, 9 INTs, 3388 yards and a QB rating of 92. How did he do it? By having the best running back in the game, the #1 or #2 TE in the game (depending on who you talk to, Gates vs. Gonzalez debate), and most importantly, two years of watching, practicing with and learning from veteran Brees. How does he follow it up? With a steady diet of the same; pound the ball with all world back LaDainian Tomlinson, use the run to set up the pass, and kill opponents with screens, dump offs to the TE and all the high percentage passes he made last year. With Norv Turner as the Head Coach you could be worried, but as an offensive coordinator he should really elevate Rivers’ game.
Prediction: 11-5 as a starter, winning the AFC West title again.
Jay Cutler – Denver Broncos, 2-3 as a starter
While missing the playoffs in a tough loss to the 49ers at season’s end last year, Jay Cutler showed why Mike Shanahan has so much confidence that he could be the next great Broncos QB. Cutler threw 2 touchdowns in 4 out of the 5 games on his way to 9 TDs for the year, with 5 INTs and 1001 yards. Showing a very strong arm along with the athleticism to move in the pocket, Cutler finished the year with a passer rating of 88.5. The Broncos have made a lot of great moves in the offseason, bringing in (RB) Travis Henry, (TE) Daniel Graham and WR Brandon Stokleyto give Cutler some new weapons behind a great offensive line. Even in their two back system, look for Cutler to lead Denver to the post season in 2007 and to challenge San Diego for the division title.
Prediction: 10-6 as a starter, resulting in a Wild Card berth in the AFC playoffs.
Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys, 6-4 as a starter
In 10 starts for the Cowboys last year, Romo reinvigorated the franchise and caught fire, throwing 19 TDs, 13 INTs, and amassing 2903 yards through the air with a rating of 95.1 in place of statue……err……starter Drew Bledsoe. Although in his third season with the team, Romo had never thrown a pass in the prior two regular seasons, making his poise on the field all the more impressive. Leading the Cowboys to a birth in the Wild Card, he is now synonymous with the field goal snafu that led to Dallas’ untimely exit from the playoffs in Seattle. But look for Romo to rebound big in 2007. And with Terrell Owens apparently making nice with the Cowboys front office this offseason, along with the return of Terry Glenn and TE Jason Whitten, look for Romo to prove he is not a one-hit wonder.
Prediction: 12-4 as a starter, with Dallas having the top record in the NFC.
DUDS IN 2007
Vince Young – Tennessee Titans, 8-5 as a starter
People will jeer me for this, but I want to make one thing perfectly clear: it’s not going to be Vince Young’s fault that he has a bad year in 2007. Young was spectacular at times in 2006, winning 6 games in a row from weeks 11-16. His constant double threat through the air and on the ground kept defenses on their heels and allowed him to make big plays down the stretch. But his stats are suspect: 12 TDs, 13 INTs, 2199 yards passing and 552 yards rushing with 7 rushing TDs. I say they are suspect because while Young definitely does not appear to be one dimensional (Michael Vick anyone?), he was able to make things happen due to a great running back in Travis Henry. Henry was the Titans best weapon last year, rushing for over 1200 yards in 14 games, often grinding the ball out to set up the big plays for Young and company. But the Titans front office let Travis Henry go with no compensation and have yet to find him a true #1 receiver/deep threat. I don’t believe LenDale White is ready to be a starting back in the NFL, leaving an untested rookie in Chris Henry as a second backfield option. Without the supporting cast that he needed the Titans to pick up in the offseason, I don’t see Vince in the postseason this year. Again, not Vince’s fault, he is a great competitor and athlete, but he can’t do it alone, and in 2007 he’s going to have to.
Prediction: 7-9, third place in the AFC South.
Jason Campbell – Washington Commanders, 2-5 as a starter
Many people in the Skins organization are enamored with this guy…....but I think it’s probably more from a lack of options rather than anything else. Campbell came on for the last seven games of the year and went 2-5 as a starter with 10 TDs, 6 INTs, 1297 yards and a QB rating of 76.5. These appear to be pretty good on paper, but you had to watch these games to understand these stats. He only eclipsed the 200 yard mark 3 times during the year, and just barely (204, 217, 220) despite the fact that he averaged nearly 30 attempts per game. At no time during any of the games he played in did you ever get the feeling that he had taken control. Most of his touchdowns and his two wins were the result of the Commanders getting into a rhythm with their ground attack, allowing for the short yardage plays. His success will hinge on a healthy Clinton Portis. Santana Moss is still one of the best in the game, and TE Chris Cooley has become the team’s #2 receiver, but the team has done little else to help the WR corps. Antwaan Randle-El underachieved last year, and I would expect more of the same. If Portis stays healthy, Campbell will have a productive but unspectacular year. If he’s injured again, Campbell will triple his INTs in '07 trying to make something out of nothing.
Prediction: 6-10, last place in the NFC East
Tavaris Jackson – Minnesota Vikings, 0-3 as a starter
Apparently Brad Childress sees something the rest of the NFL and the fans didn’t see last year from Jackson: the ability to win. Jackson started the last three games of the year in place of aging quarterback Brad Johnson and was less than stellar, ending the season with 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 475 yards and a QB rating of 62.5. Johnson has now departed to Dallas leaving Jackson as the #1 QB on the roster. RB Chester Taylor, combined with the drafting of Adrian Peterson should create a great 1-2 punch behind Steve Hutchinson and the Vikings O-line. But sooner or later, the QB is going to be called on to take over and win the game, and I don’t think Tavaris Jackson is that guy, at least not yet. Without any veterans (I don’t count Brooks Bollinger) brought in to help him develop and with no solid second option at QB, Jackson is going to be tossed into the fire and it’s going to be rough.
Prediction: 8-8, second in the NFC North (only because the ground game will get them there)
So out of all of these young QBs, where do they rank from 1 - 7?
Here are the names again (not rank ordered): Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Vince Young, Tavaris Jackson and Jason Campbell.
How would you rank them?
Found this on a blog on Fox but thought it was a good starter for a thread?His predictions are a bit out there probably because he wanted to grab some attention.
My Ranking
1. Tony Romo
2. Matt Leinart
3. Phillip Rivers
4. Jay Cutler
5. Jason Campbell
6. Vince Young - I really think hes going to bomb out this year.
7. Tavaris Jackson
what do you think?
