3/25 Mock w/ Supplemental

[StevenOtero]

v1

 

[xwalker]

Those mock simulators are making for some terrible mocks this year.

Jernigan at #47? Does anybody believe that will happen?

 

[StevenOtero]

Those mock simulators are making for some terrible mocks this year.

Jernigan at #47? Does anybody believe that will happen?

I don't see him falling to the 2nd, or to us in the 2nd.

All mocks are terrible when you think about it. Even the 'experts' have terrible mocks when you look back on them.

 

[tm1119]

The Jernigan and Hill picks are unrealistic and Pryor at 16 would be questionable at best.

And yes, people need to ditch the simulators. They were fun for a minute but they are pretty much pointless when 90% of the time the draft is completely unrealistic.

 

[casmith07]

The Jernigan and Hill picks are unrealistic and Pryor at 16 would be questionable at best.

And yes, people need to ditch the simulators. They were fun for a minute but they are pretty much pointless when 90% of the time the draft is completely unrealistic.

Dude, no. The mock simulators are the most fun I've had doing this ever.

 

[StevenOtero]

What makes a realistic mock? Making up a mock draft in your own head using the talking points from the 'experts'? Or using a flawed mock draft simulator? I really don't see that much of a difference.

 

[xwalker]

What makes a realistic mock? Making up a mock draft in your own head using the talking points from the 'experts'? Or using a flawed mock draft simulator? I really don't see that much of a difference.

You could use something like NFLDS ranking which are probably the most accurate from year to year.

 

[tm1119]

Dude, no. The mock simulators are the most fun I've had doing this ever.

That's all well and good, and I'm not even denying that they are fun....idk maybe make a sticky and contain them all in 1 thread? I think that would be better for everyone.

 

[casmith07]

That's all well and good, and I'm not even denying that they are fun....idk maybe make a sticky and contain them all in 1 thread? I think that would be better for everyone.

Nah man, each one is a breeding ground for fresh discussion.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You could use something like NFLDS ranking which are probably the most accurate from year to year.

It's not a top 100 list but a prediction on the actions of 32 different entities. There is always zany stuff that goes on and Jernigan falling to the second round would not be the strangest thing to ever happen.

 

[xwalker]

It's not a top 100 list but a prediction on the actions of 32 different entities. There is always zany stuff that goes on and Jernigan falling to the second round would not be the strangest thing to ever happen.

I have not seen any ranking with Jernigan out of the top 4 DTs. A top 4 DT falling to #47 would be strange.

It just seems that people have thrown common sense out the window with the simulator based mocks.

Obviously, the simulator sites don't have any incentive to be accurate. The more unbelievably great drafts that users can make, the more their going to come back to the site.

 

[Fredd]

Go into the NFL Draft Spreadsheet thread and pick your own top 100...I will use that to make a CZ Big Board.

 

[boysfan69]

interesting mock but no way is Jerrigan there in the 2nd round the rest looks good but a little light on the D JMO

 

[casmith07]

I have not seen any ranking with Jernigan out of the top 4 DTs. A top 4 DT falling to #47 would be strange.

It just seems that people have thrown common sense out the window with the simulator based mocks.

Obviously, the simulator sites don't have any incentive to be accurate. The more unbelievably great drafts that users can make, the more their going to come back to the site.

I don't know. I think more people would come back thriving on realism to predict the NFL draft rather than sensationalism.

I would be interested to see their metrics and algorithm/model for all 32 teams.

 

[xwalker]

I don't know. I think more people would come back thriving on realism to predict the NFL draft rather than sensationalism.

I would be interested to see their metrics and algorithm/model for all 32 teams.

I would like them if they had tighter rankings.

I have not checked into it, but somebody posted that one of those sites had a premium option that allows you to have input on the rankings before running the simulation.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I have not seen any ranking with Jernigan out of the top 4 DTs. A top 4 DT falling to #47 would be strange.

It just seems that people have thrown common sense out the window with the simulator based mocks.

Obviously, the simulator sites don't have any incentive to be accurate. The more unbelievably great drafts that users can make, the more their going to come back to the site.

You are making the assumption that the teams that are looking for DT rank as does the cottage industry. The right team overvalues Sutton, Tuitt, or whoever else and there it is. It certainly would not be the first time a DL/DT was picked early or late as opposed to the cottage industry expectation.

OL historically is a much safer pick.

 

[xwalker]

You are making the assumption that the teams that are looking for DT rank as does the cottage industry. The right team overvalues Sutton, Tuitt, or whoever else and there it is. It certainly would not be the first time a DL/DT was picked early or late as opposed to the cottage industry expectation.

OL historically is a much safer pick.

Looking at past drafts, it appears that most years 5 DTs are taken on or before #47. Some years it's more.

It would be surprising to see Jernigan as the 6th or 7th DT in this draft.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Looking at past drafts, it appears that most years 5 DTs are taken on or before #47. Some years it's more.

It would be surprising to see Jernigan as the 6th or 7th DT in this draft.

So this is the year that there are only 4 taken and Jernigan is the 5th. The outcome is within bounds.

It is interesting to note that around 5 DT will be gone by the time we pick.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

You want to know how unrealistic those simulators are? Dee Ford was taken in the top 5 and Blake Bortles fell to 16 a significant amount of the time when I used the Optimum Scouting big board. Clowney and Mack were both available at 16 once. Jernigan fell to the 3rd a few times. Manziel fell to the 4th once.

 

[Future]

That's all well and good, and I'm not even denying that they are fun....idk maybe make a sticky and contain them all in 1 thread? I think that would be better for everyone.

Yea, they are fun for the person who does them, but an annoyance if nothing else for everybody else.