3 year cap analysis, tight this year, should be fine going forward

[TwentyOne]

Current 2014 Cowboys Salaries: $137M
Dead Money: $11M
Total Cap: $148M
Projected Cowboys cap with carryover: $126M
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Currently $22M over the cap


2014 top salaries and what I anticipate will happen:

Romo - $13.5M - Restructure Bonus => Adds roughly $10M to cap
Ware - $12.25M - Paycut => Adds roughly $7M to cap(OR CUT)
Brandon Carr - $7.5M - Nothing/Maybe Restructure
Austin - $5.5M - Pay cut or Released => Adds roughly $4M to cap
Witten - $5M - Nothing/Possible Restructure
Scandrick - $4.5M - Nothing
Free - $3.5M - Nothing
Orton - $3.25M - Released => Adds roughly $1M to cap
Macky B - $2.75M - Nothing


Other notable cuts that I anticipate, along with savings:

Costa - $1.5M
Durant - $1.25M
Parnell - $1.5M


Doing the above moves would free up roughly ~$26M in cap space, putting us under the cap by $4M.


We would still have so maneuvering room with both Witten and Carr, although I don't anticipate us being very active in FA, we could make a few choice signings.

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Since some have made such a big deal on the restructures and "mortgaging our future" - I have taken a look at 2015 and 2016 as well:

Assuming modest cap increases over the next couple years, lets project that 2015 will be in the $128M range and 2016 will be in the ~$130M range.

In 2015 we currently have 25 players under contract at $106M (or ~20M under the cap) and obviously no dead money. Of those 25 players, Tyron Smith an Dez Bryant are the notable no shows.

But there are also a few issues with the numbers at first glance, for example:

Miles Austin and his 7M salary will not be here at that cost
Macky B will not be here at 3.25M
And I highly, Highly doubt that Ware will be here at a cost of $13.25M

So - lets assume that those contracts are not here, we are really closer to ~$40M under the cap with 23 players signed. We should factor in 2 rookie classes at roughly $6M/year. That is an additional $12M in cap used. Under Garrett, we have average 11 new players a year via draft and URFA. So, that ~$12M would be paying for 22 bodies. We are now up to 45 players under contract and roughly $28M in cap space.

The highest paid OT and WRs in the league average about $10m/year. Assuming they both get those contracts, we are now at 47 players under contract with $8M in free space. As a reminder, only to top 51 contracts count... So in other words, we are fine for 2015.

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So lets look at 2016:

We are currently projected at $85M spread over 16 players. Again, assuming Miles, ($11.4M), Ware ($13M) are not on the books, it is more like $61M on 14 players. Now stay with me here:

$61M Of cap charges, with an anticipated cap space of $130m. We have roughly $70M of cap space.

Now add in 3 years of drafting, at the Garrett average of 11 players a year = 33 people, and $18M of cap Space

Now add Bryant and Smith at $10m/yr each, and we are adding 35 players and $38M of cap space.

So in 2016: We have 49 players under contract for a total cost of $99M. We will have Roughly $30M of unused cap space available.... So we are fine in 2016 as well.

You made life very easy for yourself. Just some thoughts/tips on your work:

- If you release Austin that does not free 4mils. It essentially frees 394800$ in cap space. You can of course cut him beyond june 1st. But your whole breakdown is about getting us under the cap at the right time (and thats march). So i assume you are talking about a march cut.
- when you restructure players you have to account that dead money into the following years. for example if you restructure Ware in 2014 you will get a hefty cap hit if you then cut him in 2015. (which seems to be your plan). Restructuring does not work that easy. it can cause you alot of troubles if you dont use it carefully. especially with players who are near the end of their careers (like ware is).
- you have cut our backup QB, 2 backup OL and our starting OLB. But still have only 4mils in cap space available. Those are important positions we need to have players on. How will you replace those players with that kind of cap space available ? You cant just cut players to get us under the cap.
- and you havent even replaced Spencer or even accounted his (possible) salary into the cap.

Its one thing to get a team under the cap. its another thing after bringing the team undr the cap to still HAVE a team.

I appreciate your work but it does not bring transparency in our cap situation. because it is missing way to much important values and therefore it is simply wrong.

 

[TwentyOne]

To keep them, you do.

not even to keep them.

as i wrote rookie salary dont count against the cap because their salaries are lower then the 51st lowest salary of the team.
when you have to trim the rooster to 51 and decide to keep all rookies you have to add their salaries against the cap BUT you also have to substract the salaries from the other players you released (who counted against the cap before you trimmed the rooster).

 

[perrykemp]

Since when did the definition of "fine" start meaning just getting under the cap?

Compare that to other NFC playoff teams's money under the cap heading into next year and you'll quickly notice that Cowboys cap commitments are WAY beyond other teams (according to over the cap):

2014 Salary Cap Liabilities for NFC Playoff Teams (Source: Over the Cap):

Eagles: $24 million under the cap
49ers: $10 million under the cap
Packers: $28 million under the cap
Seahawks: $5m under the cap
Panthers: $20m under the cap
Saints: $10m over the cap

Heck, the Cowboys have $48m more in salary commitments than the Packers for next year and $44m than the Eagles.

Those team are already better than the Cowboys <AND> they'll have tons of room to spend on their rosters next year.

How can anyone look at the Cowboy's salary cap situation and be happy with it?

 

[TwentyOne]

The cap has become a non issue anymore. When the skins showed the world how to massage the cap that was when it became hard to hamstring yourself with the cap. With Stephen Jones handling the cap, I dont worry about it. I worry more about how stupidly we spend the money. Through the 90's and 00's Jerry learned nothing of handing out albatross type contracts that come back to bite us in the rear in a few years. He loves his one shot wonders and rewards them handsomely even after there fame has come and gone. We need better scouting for long term success, not flashes of brilliance mixed within a mediocre career.

That the cap is a non issue is what stephen jones and the other jones want to make you believe. Truth is the cap matters. and it should be handled with great care.
the biggest problem is we dont handle the cap very well. in fact we suck at it.

 

[TwentyOne]

Since when did the definition of "fine" start meaning just getting under the cap?

Compare that to other NFC playoff teams's money under the cap heading into next year and you'll quickly notice that Cowboys cap commitments are WAY beyond other teams (according to over the cap):

2014 Salary Cap Liabilities for NFC Playoff Teams (Source: Over the Cap):

Eagles: $24 million under the cap
49ers: $10 million under the cap
Packers: $28 million under the cap
Seahawks: $5m under the cap
Panthers: $20m under the cap
Saints: $10m over the cap

Heck, the Cowboys have $48m more in salary commitments than the Packers for next year and $44m than the Eagles.

Those team are already better than the Cowboys <AND> they'll have tons of room to spend on their rosters next year.

How can anyone look at the Cowboy's salary cap situation and be happy with it?

Very good post. And it show exactly our problem.

Its one thing to get under the cap. Which every team is able to dowith ease.

BUT its another thing to stay competitive. And competitive means NOT to be an amont of money under the cap. It means to have an amount of money more than other competitors. you wont be able to buy "things" if there are other buyers who have alot more resources to spent. and we are constantly way behind our competitors.

and the worst thing is (like you said) our richer competitors already have the better teams.

 

[Joe Realist]

If homers drink kool aid.

What do realists who spout the same rhetoric day in and day out drink?

water, and the glass is half empty.

 

[Ashwynn]

That the cap is a non issue is what stephen jones and the other jones want to make you believe. Truth is the cap matters. and it should be handled with great care.
the biggest problem is we dont handle the cap very well. in fact we suck at it.

I agree, If Austin was the Austin when he got the contact that would be a great value contract, same with Ware and Witten and Romo. We give out millions for a breakout stretch then get nothing for 4 years. Its maddening. But it we were getting 4 years of 100 million dollar QB play out of Romo, et al. then the moneys well spent and we are 12-4 and deep playoff contenders every year, thats great. But we dont get that. Its the players Jones chooses to reward with albatross deals that hurt us. Made of glass, hammy pulling weak mothers.