3rd and "Long" Conversion Rates?

[links18]

Is there a stats guy here who can dig this up? It seems like when I was younger 3rd and "long" (say 3rd and 7 or more) was like a death sentence for that drive. You weren't likely to convert. Today, it seems like teams treat the first two downs as warm ups for the pass that everyone knows is coming on 3rd down and someone is often running wide open down the field on 3rd and 10 or more.

I, of course, could be imagining this or my memory could be shot at this point. Does anyone have access to stats that could break down conversion percentages on 3rd and long over the years?

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Is there a stats guy here who can dig this up? It seems like when I was younger 3rd and "long" (say 3rd and 7 or more) was like a death sentence for that drive. You weren't likely to convert. Today, it seems like teams treat the first two downs as warm ups for the pass that everyone knows is coming on 3rd down and someone is often running wide open down the field on 3rd and 10 or more.

I, of course, could be imagining this or my memory could be shot at this point. Does anyone have access to stats that could break down conversion percentages on 3rd and long over the years?

That's a good question. I know as a fan 3rd and 7 I'm pretty confident we can convert it. Or at least convert a big part of those yards.

The thing about todays football is that teams are going for it on 4th down a lot and that 3rd down is used to just either get those yards or get a big chunk of them.

I get terrified at the thought of 3rd and 10 or 11.

 

[conner01]

Some of that in recent years is rules. It’s easier to get downfield and there are more penalties called. Some is coaching. A guy like parcells cared more about field position so you’d run a screen or draw instead of going for the first

 

[JD_KaPow]

3rd and 7+ conversion rates
2023: 25.0%
2013: 26.3%
2003: 24.3%
1994: 24.8%

Hasn't changed at all, certainly not in a way you'd be able to notice just by watching games. (Football Reference's play-by-play data only goes back to 1994, which is why I didn't do 1993.)