4-8 Mock

[Killerinstinct]

Something a little different today. I have been taking a combo of lb/og or og/lb 1 and 2 for a while and I still believe those are the two positions most deserving of premium picks but for today something a little different.

LB - We really need a part time starter. Probably can be filled later in the draft.
OG- with first rounders well represented in the OL maybe we can get a decent player later.

So this gives some flexibility to add some other positions instead.

19 Harold Landry DE

50 Ronnie Harrison SS

81 Patrick Bates III FS

116 Austin Corbett OG

137 Fred Warner LB

171 Jack Cichy LB

192 Deadrin Senat DT

193 Daurice Fountain WR

208 Javon Roland Jones Edge

236 Philip Lindsay RB

It was liberating when waiting to fill the G and LB spots but Looking at the 2nd and 4th picks I still feel like a Guard in the 2nd and a SS in the 4th would be better.

Maybe Braden Smith OG in the 2nd and Deshon Elliott in the 4th.

And even though I waited until later to take a LB, I ended up doubling down in an effort to ensure the LB position receives adequate improvement.

 

[WhizKid]

Something a little different today. I have been taking a combo of lb/og or og/lb 1 and 2 for a while and I still believe those are the two positions most deserving of premium picks but for today something a little different.

LB - We really need a part time starter. Probably can be filled later in the draft.
OG- with first rounders well represented in the OL maybe we can get a decent player later.

So this gives some flexibility to add some other positions instead.

19 Harold Landry DE

50 Ronnie Harrison SS

81 Patrick Bates III FS

116 Austin Corbett OG

137 Fred Warner LB

171 Jack Cichy LB

192 Deadrin Senat DT

193 Daurice Fountain WR

208 Javon Roland Jones Edge

236 Philip Lindsay RB

It was liberating when waiting to fill the G and LB spots but Looking at the 2nd and 4th picks I still feel like a Guard in the 2nd and a SS in the 4th would be better.

Maybe Braden Smith OG in the 2nd and Deshon Elliott in the 4th.

And even though I waited until later to take a LB, I ended up doubling down in an effort to ensure the LB position receives adequate improvement.

I really like the idea of double dipping at linebacker in those mid rounds. For me, any combo of Fred Warner, Darius Leonard, Jack Cichy, Shaq Griffin, and Oren Burks will yield us depth, a part-time starter and special teams players.

 

[CPanther95]

I really like the idea of double dipping at linebacker in those mid rounds. For me, any combo of Fred Warner, Darius Leonard, Jack Cichy, Shaq Griffin, and Oren Burks will yield us depth, a part-time starter and special teams players.

Picking 2 LBs with your 3rd and 4th round picks gives you a 45% chance of getting a single part-time starter. Also using your 4th round comp to pick up a 3rd one increases your chances to 53%.

Using your last 7 picks (4th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 6th and 7th) to pick 7 LBs only give you a 43% chance at landing a single part-time starter.

Bottom line is if you want a better than 50/50 chance of getting a LB that will start for at least half the games that he's on the roster, you better spend a 1st (70%), a 2nd (55%) or your 3rd and both 4ths (53%)

 

[Longboysfan]

Not trusting Will McClay on the picks?

 

[WhizKid]

Picking 2 LBs with your 3rd and 4th round picks gives you a 45% chance of getting a single part-time starter. Also using your 4th round comp to pick up a 3rd one increases your chances to 53%.

Using your last 7 picks (4th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 6th and 7th) to pick 7 LBs only give you a 43% chance at landing a single part-time starter.

Bottom line is if you want a better than 50/50 chance of getting a LB that will start for at least half the games that he's on the roster, you better spend a 1st (70%), a 2nd (55%) or your 3rd and both 4ths (53%)

This all may be true, but it is all dependent on who you are drafting, scheme fit, etc. I just don't think the value is going to be there considering BPA and other positions if Smith and Edmunds are gone in the first and LVE and Evans are not there in the second. If we don't move up to grab one of those two late first early second, we're looking at other positions with our pick considering the value available at that point. Of course, all could change on draft day and someone could fall.

 

[RandyOh]

you aint getting Corbett in the 4th. Also nice if Cichy can show better durability in the NFL but a 3rd LB would need to be taken cause i aint putting an ounce of trust in him being serious depth.

 

[Klingo3034]

Doubt Fred Warner is gone by 5th round. He be gone by at least 3rd.

 

[gmoney112]

I've actually been warming up to Harrison a lot at SS.

 

[4th_and_short]

Going Smith/Elliot in 2/4 would be the way to go in this situation imo. Isn’t Bates projected to go in R2 as well?

I think overall the team gets better on defense but unless Cichy really develops the middle would still be a weak spot.

 

[waving monkey]

two drafts in a row spending high capital on DB's not my idea

 

[Techsass]

Picking 2 LBs with your 3rd and 4th round picks gives you a 45% chance of getting a single part-time starter. Also using your 4th round comp to pick up a 3rd one increases your chances to 53%.

Using your last 7 picks (4th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 6th and 7th) to pick 7 LBs only give you a 43% chance at landing a single part-time starter.

Bottom line is if you want a better than 50/50 chance of getting a LB that will start for at least half the games that he's on the roster, you better spend a 1st (70%), a 2nd (55%) or your 3rd and both 4ths (53%)

Just curious are these some kind of "Rule of Thumb" or did you actually take the time to figure this out? Not that it matters - I was just wondering.

 

[DUO_CORE]

Zeke goes home via trade to the Browns in return for their #1 first rd pick this year and next years #1. We keep the 19th pick. Saquan Barkley becomes a Cowboy. Then I woke up.

 

[CPanther95]

Just curious are these some kind of "Rule of Thumb" or did you actually take the time to figure this out? Not that it matters - I was just wondering.

The stats are from 2005 to 2014. Looking at percentage of success by round and by position. Success is defined as a player that ended up starting for at least half the games of his career. Doesn't distinguish between occasional starter on a crappy team, or an all pro. Brandon Weeden qualifies as a successful first round pick using this criteria.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round