4th Down No Problem: Go for it!

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I’ve been wanting to come back to this thread. For those who missed some of the action earlier, I made a sig bet with a brother here that the league would see a 20% increase in teams going for it on 4th down.

As I mull this over I suspect that’s too modest. It’s going to spike a LOT in coming seasons and will change the game FOREVER. I’ll explain why...soon.

 

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As old as baseball, the idea stood. Bunt a guy over!

And mathemtics yelled back: MADNESS. You don’t give up an out just to advance a guy from 1st to second base. Outs are precious! Finally baseball managers learned and the traditional approach died. If a hitter comes up now with a guy on 1st base...swing away. We want big innings. Math won.

There is a strong parallel with NFL coaches and 4th down. They are willing to *concede* possession of the ball for 40 yards (often less) of field position. They concede possessions even when odds of converting are over 70%! Madness!

But again: The math will win out. It always does.

 

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Coaches, despite all the data in the world, are afraid to be out on the forefront of a big change.

But seeing playoff teams taking 4th down risks...they will realize they can’t be left behind.

Patriots pass of FG attempt on 4th down...go for it:


And we all know of the Eagles conversion on 4th down in the Super Bowl. Don’t forget: they also made a key 4th down conversion against Falcons earlier in playoffs.

 

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Ownership and GMs that study the numbers will begin encouraging, supporting and even pressuring coaches to go for it on 4th down.

Does Peterson make his call w/out the backing from above?

“When you do the math you really want to try to be more aggressive than the public would normally anticipate. I think the smarter teams do it that way,” Lurie said. “And you can fail. When you have a 42 percent to 58 and you chose the 58 and . . . you may lose it, [critics say], ‘Oh, how could you make that decision?’ Well, because it gave you the best chance to win

 

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Coaches are finally getting heat for thick-headed conservatism.

Around the league more math-minded fans and media writers know the smarts of 4th down risk-taking. And they are putting coaches feet to the fire.

New Orleans is trailing 23-10 in the 4th quarter versus Rams. They sit 4th down on the Saints 3...and choose a frikking field goal. They make the kick...and lose. Tony Romo, SBNation and others call out Coach Payton.

Similar things happen in Carolina, Atlanta and other cities. Conservative-anti-math decisions lead to losses. Smart fans say: “Enough!”