538: Elo Ratings, Divisional Round

[JD_KaPow]

Yet another team rating/ranking and prediction. The Cowboys moved up slightly in 538's rankings, edging past Green Bay into 4th place. In truth, they're essentially tied: the Cowboys have a rating of 1642, Green Bay's at 1639.

They still give Green Bay a 59% chance of winning the game and see the point spread as 2.5 in favor of GB, because of home field advantage. It's the only game this weekend where they give the road team better than a one in three chance of winning.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...gs-and-playoff-odds-divisional-round-edition/

 

[jobberone]

Big plays and turnovers as much as Sc% and RZ scoring. Something gotta give.

 

[AdamJT13]

Fivethirtyeight had a good article this week on how teams that play in the wild-card round are more successful the deeper they get in the playoffs. They have won 30 percent of the time in the divisional round. Those that have advanced have won 45 percent of the time in conference championship games. And those that have made it to the Super Bowl have won 72.7 percent of the time. Fivethirtyeight calls them "Trial By Fire" teams.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-the-playoffs-are-a-trial-by-fire/

 

[kramskoi]

Yet another team rating/ranking and prediction. The Cowboys moved up slightly in 538's rankings, edging past Green Bay into 4th place. In truth, they're essentially tied: the Cowboys have a rating of 1642, Green Bay's at 1639.

They still give Green Bay a 59% chance of winning the game and see the point spread as 2.5 in favor of GB, because of home field advantage. It's the only game this weekend where they give the road team better than a one in three chance of winning.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...gs-and-playoff-odds-divisional-round-edition/

This looks about right...FootballOutsiders had Dallas at #6 in DVOA for the final week of the regular season. Always a big fan of Nate Silver!