88.8 - It's All About the Pass Defense

[percyhoward]

Since the beginning of the 2008 season, counting the two playoff games, the Cowboys' cumulative record is 23-20. The one factor that has translated into wins more than any other is good pass defense, as indicated by defensive passer rating.

In Games When Opposing QB Has 88.8 Rating or Worse: 18-2

In Other Games: 5-18

The average passer rating is 83.4 for the league in 2010. In 2009, the Cowboys were able to hold opposing quarterbacks to an 83.5 rating, and 86.2 in 2008.

This year it's 105.5...

 

[Idgit]

Since the beginning of the 2008 season, counting the two playoff games, the Cowboys' cumulative record is 23-20. The one factor that has translated into wins more than any other is good pass defense, as indicated by defensive passer rating.

In Games When Opposing QB Has 88.8 Rating or Worse: 18-2

In Other Games: 5-18

The average passer rating is 83.4 for the league in 2010. In 2009, the Cowboys were able to hold opposing quarterbacks to an 83.5 rating, and 86.2 in 2008.

This year it's 105.5...

Ouch. Really? 105.5?

It's almost like Adam's right when he says that passing well and keeping them from passing well is important.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Where we tend to take the biggest 'nap' is at home. We have played tougher teams at home since 2007 than we have on the road, but IIRC (I don't have the numbers with me anymore), from 2007-2009 we had something like an 85 QB rating allowed at home vs. a 78 QB rating allowed on the road.

We need to be tougher at home. And crowd noise has little to do with it.







YR

 

[ShiningStar]

Ouch. Really? 105.5?

It's almost like Adam's right when he says that passing well and keeping them from passing well is important.

also like saying, stop the offense from scoring, interesting train of thought we have going here.

 

[superpunk]

This year it's 105.5...

 

[Idgit]

also like saying, stop the offense from scoring, interesting train of thought we have going here.

Well. It's saying 'stop the offense from passing well.' That just happens to have a high correlation to scoring, and winning.

But it's news to people who still think you win by running the ball, or by stopping the run.

 

[percyhoward]

also like saying, stop the offense from scoring, interesting train of thought we have going here.

Not really. You can hold down your opponent's scoring by being a bend-don't-break-defense, or by playing ball-control offense, and still have a lousy defensive passer rating.

To have a good defensive passer rating, you either have to shut teams down yardage-wise and completion percentage-wise, or you have to make interceptions.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Not really. You can hold down your opponent's scoring by being a bend-don't-break-defense, or by playing ball-control offense, and still have a lousy defensive passer rating.

Of course you can. But like he said, it's a *correlation*. Doesn't mean that it happens all of the time, but greatly more often than not it does.

It's like taking a coin a flipping it 10 times in a row. Chances are it is not going to land on heads every time. However, it certainly *could* land on heads. I think the chances of that happening are .0098%, but it theoretically can indeed happen.





YR

 

[Arch Stanton]

It's a passing league? No way.

 

[percyhoward]

Of course you can. But like he said, it's a *correlation*. Doesn't mean that it happens all of the time, but greatly more often than not it does.

No argument from me about that. I think 18-2 and 5-18 for the Cowboys says it all about the connection between passer rating and W/L.

Also, since 2003, 24 teams have finished in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive passer rating.

23 made the playoffs.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I did just run a quick correlation coefficient on Off. QB Rating and points scored. I did it just for 2009 because I'm too lazy. So you can accuse the sample size of being too small, but generally I find that in the NFL correlations like these usually don't change that much, if at all, year after year.

The correlation coefficent for '09 between QB rating and points scored was +0.844047.

A correlation coefficient can only go as high as +1.0. At +1.0, that's an absolute direct correlation (for instance, if we reached a +1.0 with QB rating and points scored, that would mean for every higher QB rating point, the more points would be scored).

+0.84 is very strong and basically says that for '09 (and I believe other seasons as well), the higher a team's QB Rating, the more points they were going to score. Some exceptions to the rule, but that is the rule.






YR

 

[Baileyneverfailey]

I'm pretty sure in 90% of the games played in the NFL, if a QB's passer rating is high, his team is probably winning.

A very high QB rating that would push the average up comes from throwing TDs and not throwing picks. Surprise surprise, when these things happen, the other team's defense is not playing too well.

That also doesn't mean running well and stopping the run aren't important too. Running it well keeps the other offense off the field, so helps prevent the other QB from running up that rating. Stopping the run makes the other team's offense 1 dimensional and leads to more turnovers and sacks, thus lower QB rating.

Too many factors come into play to blame one aspect, when even that one aspect is influenced by so many other things.

 

[percyhoward]

That also doesn't mean running well and stopping the run aren't important too. Running it well keeps the other offense off the field, so helps prevent the other QB from running up that rating. Stopping the run makes the other team's offense 1 dimensional and leads to more turnovers and sacks, thus lower QB rating.

Too many factors come into play to blame one aspect, when even that one aspect is influenced by so many other things.

It's not the only problem--just the main one. It is possible to get a lot more specific than just to say that it all works together, and then be done with it.

While ball control offense might keep the opposing QB from racking up yards and points, only good pass defense--or poor passing on his part--keeps his rating down. And stopping the run hasn't led our defense to force turnovers at all.

 

[AMERICAS_FAN]

That's the 1-2 punch of Wade Phillips-Dave Campo at work right there. Phillips hits you high while Campo (the shorter feller) hits you low. They have single-handedly K-O'd the defense. Jeery Jones is so worried about bringing the next great heavyweight fight to Cowboy Stadium, never did he realize he had them coaching the defense all along.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Since the beginning of the 2008 season, counting the two playoff games, the Cowboys' cumulative record is 23-20. The one factor that has translated into wins more than any other is good pass defense, as indicated by defensive passer rating.

In Games When Opposing QB Has 88.8 Rating or Worse: 18-2

In Other Games: 5-18

The average passer rating is 83.4 for the league in 2010. In 2009, the Cowboys were able to hold opposing quarterbacks to an 83.5 rating, and 86.2 in 2008.

This year it's 105.5...

how about rushing stats in those same games with rushing more than a 100 yards?

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I'm pretty sure in 90% of the games played in the NFL, if a QB's passer rating is high, his team is probably winning.

More like 80%





YR

 

[percyhoward]

I'm pretty sure in 90% of the games played in the NFL, if a QB's passer rating is high, his team is probably winning.

More like 80%

It's oversimplifying it to say "well, it's a passing league, what do you expect?"

Since the beginning of 2008, we're 18-2 when holding opposing QB's at or under 88.8. The only losses were at Pittsburgh in 2008 and at Washington this year. No matter what else happened in the game, holding the other QB at or under 88.8 has translated into victory 90% of the time.

But we're only 16-7 when Romo is over 88.8 for the same period, and in 4 of those losses, Romo put up a 98 or better. Romo's success has translated into wins only about 2/3 of the time.

It's been specifically about pass defense instead of passing in general, and it's about this team's pass defense more than the league in general.

 

[Baileyneverfailey]

I think it's been pretty common knowledge that we don't get nearly enough INTs. It's been a problem for years.

 

[percyhoward]

how about rushing stats in those same games with rushing more than a 100 yards?

In those same 43 games, a Dallas back has had 100+ yards rushing 6 times.

We're 3-3.

 

[percyhoward]

I think it's been pretty common knowledge that we don't get nearly enough INTs. It's been a problem for years.

It will be interesting to see over the next 7 games if more zone (and presumably less pressure) changes that at all.