A Brief history of HFA.

[windward]

I posted this last night but it was lost amidst all the wailing and gnashing of teeth. This is a look at how teams with HFA fared historically from 1990-2006, the year the NFL expanded its postseason to 12 teams.

HFA since 1990 (when current playoff format started)
1990:
San Francisco(lost conf title)
Buffalo (lost SB) SB champion Giants (Bye)
1991
Washington (won SB
Buffalo (lost SB)
1992
San Francisco (lost conf title)
Pittsburgh (lost div playoff) SB champion: Dallas (Bye)
1993
Dallas (won SB)
Buffalo (lost SB)
1994
San Francisco (won SB)
Pittsburgh (lost conf title)
1995
Dallas (won SB)
Kansas City (lost div playoff)
1996
Green Bay (won SB)
Denver (lost div playoff)
1997
San Francisco (lost conf title)
Kansas City (lost div playoff) SB champion: Denver -no bye
1998
Minnesota (lost conf title)
Denver (won Super Bowl)
1999
St, Louis (won SB)
Jacksonville (lost conf title)
2000
NYG (Lost SB)
Tennessee (lost div playoff) SB champion- Baltimore-nobye
2001
St,Louis (lost SB)
Pittsburgh (lost conf title) SB champion- New England-bye
2002
Philadelphia (lost conf title)
Oakland (lost SB) SB champion Tampa Bay- Bye
2003
Philadelphia (lost conf title)
New England (won SB)
2004
Philadelphia (lost SB)
Pittsburgh (lost conf title) SB champion- New England-Bye
2005
Seattle (lost SB)
Indianapolis (lost div playoff) SB champion Pittsburgh-no bye
2006
Chicago (lost SB)
San Diego(lost div playoff) SB champion Indianapolis-nobye

So, In the NFC, 11 out of 17 teams that had HFA advanced to the Super Bowl. 6 of those 11 won the Super Bowl with the most recent being 1999. 6 of the 17 with HFA advanced to the conf title game at least

In the AFC things are a little more mixed up. 6 out of 17 teams with HFA advanced to the Super Bowl with only the 1998 Broncos and 2003 Patriots winning the Super Bowl. 4 advanced to the conf title game and 7 times the team with HFA was eliminated in the first round.

8 times a team from either con ference with HFA went on to win the Super Bowl. 13 out of the past 17 years a team with a first round bye a team has won the Super Bowl. Out of the 34 Super Bowl teams in the past seventeen years,17 had HFA in thier respective conferences. Also, of these 34 teams 27 had a first round bye.

 

[Aikbach]

You want homefield, prior to parity it meant without question you were the top team, now stuff happens with a little more regularity but you still want homefield.

 

[Skinsmaniac]

So it's basically a 50/50 shot for Dallas to make it to the SB. Assuming that there are no reasons why the AFC and NFC should be treated separately.

 

[windward]

You want homefield, prior to parity it meant without question you were the top team, now stuff happens with a little more regularity but you still want homefield.

When would you say this began?

 

[Aikbach]

So it's basically a 50/50 shot for Dallas to make it to the SB. Assuming that there are no reasons why the AFC and NFC should be treated separately.

Well I will say in the NFC only Dallas can beat Dallas which it has done thrice this season so who knows.

 

[Aikbach]

When would you say this began?

It was implemented in 1993 with free agency and a salary cap but was felt in force in 1998 when the previously lowly Falcons won their conference and were followed in 1999 by the out of no where Rams then Ravens and Patriots in consecutive years following.

 

[windward]

It was implemented in 1993 with free agency and a salary cap but was felt in force in 1998 when the previously lowly Falcons won their conference and were followed in 1999 by the out of no where Rams then Ravens and Patriots in consecutive years following.

I'd add that as teams have become more familiar with the cap, it's been easier to sustain success and harder to come out of nowhere as the Falcons and Rams did. From 1998-2003 out of the 12 Super Bowl teams, 8 had not qualified for the playoffs the previous year. Since 2004, every Super Bowl participant has made the playoffs the previous year.

 

[Aikbach]

I'd add that as teams have become more familiar with the cap, it's been easier to sustain success and harder to come out of nowhere as the Falcons and Rams did. From 1998-2003 out of the 12 Super Bowl teams, 8 had not qualified for the playoffs the previous year. Since 2004, every Super Bowl participant has made the playoffs the previous year.

Yes and no, the Super Bowl losers with the exception of the Seahawks have all slid back into the pack.

 

[windward]

Yes and no, the Super Bowl losers with the exception of the Seahawks have all slid back into the pack.

Super Bowl losers usually have a hiatus of one year.

2004 Eagles made playoffs in 2006
2003 Panther made playoffs in 2005
2002 Raiders (er....)
2001 Rams made playoffs in 2003
2000 Giants made playoffs in 2002

 

[Aikbach]

Super Bowl losers usually have a hiatus of one year.

2004 Eagles made playoffs in 2006
2003 Panther made playoffs in 2005
2002 Raiders (er....)
2001 Rams made playoffs in 2003
2000 Giants made playoffs in 2002

But they were never again the threats they were the first time around, maybe Dallas can do that to New England.

 

[windward]

But they were never again the threats they were the first time around, maybe Dallas can do that to New England.

which makes one wonder how team like New England, Indianapolis Pittsburgh and Seattle have managed to be competitive year in and year out.

I also think we can begin to add Dallas Jacksonville and San Diego to this conversation.