A Little Bit of My Homer Silver Lining Here (stats)

[Yakuza Rich]

Last year I came up with a formula that used several different statistics to 'project win totals' in the NFL.

I used stats like:

Yards allowed
Points Allowed
Yards gained
Points Scored
Adjusted Sacks Allowed Rate (Footballoutsiders.com stat)
turnover margin
QB Rating
QB Rating Allowed

My formula was concocted to find the strongest correlation to winning in the NFL and I used 10 years of prior NFL data to come up with this formula.

And it worked well...

Last season my top 3 projected teams in wins were:

New England
Atlanta
Green Bay

Mind you...Green Bay was actually leading the league for an extended period of time and then New England got on this hot streak and took over. But, Green Bay also was on the verge of not making the playoffs. Come the postseason, I had them going to the Super Bowl because their projected wins were too strong. Yes, Atlanta was projected to win more games in the end...but they barely squeeked past them and played a much easier schedule (unfortunately, I can't come up with a way to factor in strength of schedule in this formula).

Detroit was another good example. They were projected to win 8-9 games for much of the year and got off to a slow start. But, true to form they got on a streak and started winning games to finish out the season.

Anyway, here are my projected win totals after week 4:

Detroit Lions………………………….13.36
Tennessee Titans……………………12.59
Baltimore Ravens………………….12.57
Green Bay Packers……………….12.47
Buffalo Bills………………………….12.10
Houston Texans…………………….11.36
New England Patriots…………….10.79
San Francisco 49ers………………10.71
New York Giants……………………10.28
New York Jets………………………….9.90
New Orleans Saints………………….9.72
Washington Commanders………………9.23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers……………8.69
Oakland Raiders………………………8.46
Cleveland Browns…………………….8.33
Cincinnati Bengals………………….7.88
Dallas Cowboys………………………7.80
Arizona Cardinals…………………….7.30
San Diego Chargers………………….7.25
Chicago Bears………………………….6.45
Pittsburgh Steelers……………………6.02
Minnesota Vikings…………………….5.87
Indianapolis Colts………………………5.76
Philadelphia Eagles…………………….5.67
Atlanta Falcons………………………….5.54
Carolina Panthers………………………4.97
Seattle Seahawks……………………….4.93
Denver Broncos………………………….4.30
Jacksonville Jaguars………………….3.87
Kansas City Chiefs…………………….3.64
St. Louis Rams…………………………..3.59
Miami Dolphins………………………….3.24

Now...

We are projected by my formula to go 8-8.

But, given the massive amount of injuries we've had and that those players are projected to come back into the lineup...I think that's pretty good.

And like I said...I can't factor in strength of schedule in the formula. But...

Jets 2-2
Niners 3-1
Commanders 3-1
Lions 4-0

That's a combined 12-4 we've played against so far.

And look at their projected wins:

Jets (10-6)
Niners (11-5)
Commanders (9-7)
Lions (13-3)

Obviously, this doesn't guarantee anything.

What has killed us statistically was the 3 turnovers for TD's. 2 of Romo's picks Sunday and the blocked punt against the Jets.

Of course, we face the Pats at New England coming back, but then we get St. Louis, @ Philly (which I think is extremely winnable), Seattle at home, Buffalo at home, @ Washington and then the Fins on Thanksgiving.

Furthermore, under Garrett (who has also had Kitna as his starting QB and Pasqualoni as his D-Coordinator), our losses have been by an average of 2.8 points.

I really wouldn't be shocked to see this team go 8-4 after Thanksgiving and if I had more confidence in Romo, it wouldn't completely shock me to see them go 9-3 or even...10-2. We're 2-2 with all of these injuries having barely lost the games that we should have won anyway.

Like I said...Homer-istic type of viewpoint, but trying to put the rose colored glasses down for sec...I do think that there is some objective reason for optimism here.










YR

 

[rkell87]

so are we 7.8 plus the 2 we already have or are we just 7.8?

 

[AdamJT13]

Projecting us to win fewer games than the Commanders, Raiders, Bengals and Browns is a silver lining?

Sheesh, kill me now.

 

[Boyzmamacita]

Projecting us to win fewer games than the Commanders, Raiders, Bengals and Browns is a silver lining?

Sheesh, kill me now.

:laugh2: It's too early to predict season records, but I appreciate the optimism in your post, YR.

 

[canters]

I agree with you that we CAN go on a run. But I do not see us being consistent until we can run the ball when we NEED to.

I would not be surpised to see us go 10-6 or 11-5 if we can run the ball when we NEED to. Otherwise, we are a 7-8 win team that tends to turn the ball over.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Projecting us to win fewer games than the Commanders, Raiders, Bengals and Browns is a silver lining?

Sheesh, kill me now.

Different schedules, different injuries and different types of games.

If you would've told me we had the injuries we did and that the Lions were going to be as good as I thought they could be (they did pretty well in the stats last year) and that the Skins and Niners are far better that projected and we were 2-2, I'd be pretty happy with that.

Furthermore, it's a 'legitimate' 2-2 because the stats project for an 8-8 record. A team like the Jaguars were projected to win 4 games last year and wound up winning much more than that. But...it was essentially smoke and mirrors.

Honestly, I believe we erase 3 plays and we are projected to be 10-6 or perhaps 11-5. And we would probably be at least 3-1, if not 4-0 right now.

Yeah, some silver lining...all things considered.






YR

 

[Beast_from_East]

Colts are not winning 6 games unless Manning gets a bionic neck.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

:laugh2: It's too early to predict season records, but I appreciate the optimism in your post, YR.

It's not really a prediction as it is 'this is how the team is playing like based upon historical data.' They are playing like an 8-8 team in the first 4 games.

Sounds obvious, but a 2-2 Falcons team is playing more like a 5-11 team. And a 2-2 Jets team is playing more like a 10-6 team. It's fluid, so it changes each time the team plays.





YR

 

[Direwolf63]

It's not really a prediction as it is 'this is how the team is playing like based upon historical data.' They are playing like an 8-8 team in the first 4 games.

Sounds obvious, but a 2-2 Falcons team is playing more like a 5-11 team. And a 2-2 Jets team is playing more like a 10-6 team. It's fluid, so it changes each time the team plays.





YR

I hear what you are saying, but Detroit doesn't look like a 13 win team to me. They beat 2 winless teams and received a giftwrapped game complete with a bow on it. With a little game management, we beat them by 3 TD's.

 

[jday]

For the last three years I've said this and it still holds true: The Cowboys can beat any team you line up against them in the NFL...including themselves.

 

[Boyzmamacita]

For the last three years I've said this and it still holds true: The Cowboys can beat any team you line up against them in the NFL...including themselves.

They definitely play to the level of the competition whether good or bad. I expect New England to find themselves in a dogfight in two weeks. And yes I believe we can win this game.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Projecting us to win fewer games than the Commanders, Raiders, Bengals and Browns is a silver lining?

Sheesh, kill me now.

:laugh2:


But I gotta say, I think 8-4 over the rest of the season is not a reach IMO.

 

[Venger]

Let's talk a little something called "sample size"...

 

[tupperware]

How is 8-8 a silver lining?

 

[wick]

You have us finishing third in the East and out of the playoffs. Where is the silver lining?

 

[RS12]

No 3rd down conversions?

 

[Beast_from_East]

You have us finishing third in the East and out of the playoffs. Where is the silver lining?

Draft positon maybe?

I cant think of any other positive about finishing 8-8.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

It's basically saying we played like an 8-8 team in the first quarter of the season.

Somebody like the Falcons who are 2-2, are playing like a 5-11 team.

Typically...if the Cowboys keep playing like they are...they will finish 8-8. And typically, of the Falcons keep playing like they are...they will go 5-11.

The silver lining here is that:

1) We have had a massive amount of injuries.

2) Our QB has 2 INT's for TD's which is a huge part of this.

3) We also have a punt blocked for a TD return.

Despite all of that, we are playing like a 8-8 team.

But, if we can get healthy and if Romo can just curb the big mistakes and we don't have any more returns for a TD on special teams.....we'll be projected more like a 10-6 or a 11-5 team.

Remember, the critics have said 'we should be 0-4'. And if we were 2-2 and playing like a 5-11 team...I'd say we are in big trouble.

However, we are not doing it with smoke and mirrors. In fact, all things considered...not bad.

But, that's provided we get healthy and Romo curbs his frustrating turnovers. Hell, if we just has Romo curb his frustrating turnovers we would be projected to 11-5.






YR

 

[sonnyboy]

It's basically saying we played like an 8-8 team in the first quarter of the season.

Somebody like the Falcons who are 2-2, are playing like a 5-11 team.

Typically...if the Cowboys keep playing like they are...they will finish 8-8. And typically, of the Falcons keep playing like they are...they will go 5-11.

The silver lining here is that:

1) We have had a massive amount of injuries.

2) Our QB has 2 INT's for TD's which is a huge part of this.

3) We also have a punt blocked for a TD return.

Despite all of that, we are playing like a 8-8 team.

But, if we can get healthy and if Romo can just curb the big mistakes and we don't have any more returns for a TD on special teams.....we'll be projected more like a 10-6 or a 11-5 team.

Remember, the critics have said 'we should be 0-4'. And if we were 2-2 and playing like a 5-11 team...I'd say we are in big trouble.

However, we are not doing it with smoke and mirrors. In fact, all things considered...not bad.

But, that's provided we get healthy and Romo curbs his frustrating turnovers. Hell, if we just has Romo curb his frustrating turnovers we would be projected to 11-5.






YR

Beyond the stats my eye test tells me there's plenty to be enthusiastic about the next twelve games.

Our defense is better than almost anyone thought and I think about as good as I was hoping for. The talent is there and Ryan really makes a difference. Certainly looks like he's what we hoped he'd be.
I've written on this before but I believe defense is so much more about your coordinator in todays NFL.
Talent is still key and you can never be great without it. But the rules have tilted the game so much in favor of offense that it's become that much more important to gain an advantage with scheme and play calling.

Eagles are a perfect example. Just as I expected, Castillo is killing them. He brings zero to the table in experince, scheming and play calling. He's 90% of the problem and poor LB talent is the other 10%.

But back to Ryan. I am very confident in his ability to game plan the best QBs and offenses. Can't wait to see what he does and how we perform against Brady. And he'll have all his horses in play for the 1st time.

On the offensive side, I've been pleasantly surprised with the OL and Jones. Felt coming into the season our real dvantage outside of Romo would be our receivers. Well we've only had Austin, Dez and Witten together healthy for half the Jets game.

Now we have them back for NE and I'm pumped.

We won't have perfect health at any point going forward since teams seldom do. We just need a little more luck than we've had, Romo on the field and we make a run at 12 wins and the division.e

 

[AMERICAS_FAN]

YR, I would bet that your proxy statistic for winning will have a tighter prediction if you calculated for the 4th quarter only.