A Little Schedule Analysis

[Hostile]

I wanted to take a minute to look at how schedules and strength of schedule can affect teams.

In 2009 Dallas won the NFC East. That meant in 2010 we played the "1st place schedule." In 2009 Washington was last in the NFC East. So they played the "last place schedule." You would think that this means that Dallas' 2010 schedule was much harder than Washington's. Not so fast.

2010 Cowboys...........................2010 Commanders
Commanders...6-10, 6-10....................Cowboys...6-10, 6-10
Eagles...10-6, 10-6.......................Eagles...10-6, 10-6
Giants...10-6, 10-6.......................Giants...10-6, 10-6
Bears...11-5................................Bears...11-5
Lions...6-10.................................Lions...6-10
Packers...10-6.............................Packers...10-6
Vikings...6-10..............................Vikings...6-10
Texans...6-10..............................Texans...6-10
Colts...10-6.................................Colts...10-6
Jaguars...8-8...............................Jaguars...8-8
Titans...6-10...............................Titans...6-10

So far, dead even through 14 games. The difference comes in the same place finisher games. Dallas at first was to face the Cardinals and the Saints. Washington as dead last had the Rams and the Buccaneers.

Look what happened. Without Warner the Cardinals fell apart. Meanwhile the Rams added the rookie of the year at QB. The Saints were nowhere near their Super Bowl form and the Buccaneers were a surprise contender.

Cardinals...5-11............................Rams...7-9
Saints...11-5................................Buccaneers...10-6

This little one game difference in strength of schedule is why Dallas is picking ahead of the Commanders in the Draft even though they finished 3rd in the NFC East instead of last like the Commanders.

The Cowboys opponent winning % works out to .512, while the Commanders works out to .516. Dallas finished ahead of the Commanders in the East by virtue of a better Division record; 3-3 compared to 2-4.

Meanwhile by virtue of not finishing 6-10 the Giants and the Eagles opponent winning %'s are .453 and .492 respectively. This is what happens when you switch two 10-6 games for two 6-10 games and play the Seahawks and Panthers for NY and 49ers and Falcons for the Eagles.

So this year when you look at the Cowboys same place schedule and you think we should throttle the Lions and the Buccaneers don't be too hasty. Both teams are rising. One thing you can guarantee though. Washington gets the Panthers and the Vikings so our strength of schedule is not going to be so close to theirs again.

To close this I'll simply remind you who we do face in 2011 in case you are like me and you occasionally quit thinking about it.

Here's a link to a thread that will always have the information handy.

 

[bracey]

Ugh. Maybe we should have lost to the Eagles at the end. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Lions and Bucs win their divisions next year. Both are teams on the rise.

 

[Hostile]

Ugh. Maybe we should have lost to the Eagles at the end. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Lions and Bucs win their divisions next year. Both are teams on the rise.

If we had lost, fine. But no way would I ever lose on purpose.

 

[Stash]

You have way too much time on your hands my friend.
















But I'm glad you do.

 

[bracey]

If we had lost, fine. But no way would I ever lose on purpose.

Agreed.

I'm sure those teams aren't thrilled with having the Cowboys on their schedule either.

 

[Hostile]

You have way too much time on your hands my friend.
















But I'm glad you do.

The trappings of being my own boss. I sit in my office and in between phone calls think up this stuff.

 

[Stash]

The trappings of being my own boss. I sit in my office and in between phone calls think up this stuff.

Well I, for one, am glad for your slow business days.

 

[Longboysfan]

You have way too much time on your hands my friend.
















But I'm glad you do.

Second that...

And Thank you.

 

[speedkilz88]

Ugh. Maybe we should have lost to the Eagles at the end. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Lions and Bucs win their divisions next year. Both are teams on the rise.

I think it's more likely the bucs take a huge drop. They had a cakewalk schedule this past season.

 

[VietCowboy]

I think it's more likely the bucs take a huge drop. They had a cakewalk schedule this past season.

Yeah, I think the same. The Falcons and Saints won't let the Bucs beat them.

Lions are a wildcard for sure, they could be decent, but they could suck again.

If the Vikings get Kolb or VY, they could be decent. They've got some weapons on their team, just a lack of QB talent.

 

[bsheeern]

Good breakdown Hos. With 2 games being different it's not much but can make or break a playoff record. The two team difference between us and the skins this past season wasn't as much of a difference as it has been in years past. Look at years past when teams like the rams and saints went from last to first and won superbowls. Not only did they play better but were very different teams. Very similar to the cardinals as you mentioned above just reversed in success.

The NFC West has been the "wild card" in all of his here lately. There's no real strong teams so playing teams from that division vastly changes from year to year. Honestly I think all the west teams are pretty bad compared to the rest of the NFC. If it wasn't for the 49ers that's division would historically be one of the worst in the history of NFL if not all of sports.

 

[VietCowboy]

Good breakdown Hos. With 2 games being different it's not much but can make or break a playoff record. The two team difference between us and the skins this past season wasn't as much of a difference as it has been in years past. Look at years past when teams like the rams and saints went from last to first and won superbowls. Not only did they play better but were very different teams. Very similar to the cardinals as you mentioned above just reversed in success.

The NFC West has been the "wild card" in all of his here lately. There's no real strong teams so playing teams from that division vastly changes from year to year. Honestly I think all the west teams are pretty bad compared to the rest of the NFC. If it wasn't for the 49ers that's division would historically be one of the worst in the history of NFL if not all of sports.

Well, it's also when you play the same teams. Some teams get hot early and then lose steam, others the opposite. Also, remember Houston having to play like 5 times in a row that were coming off of byes? That also can play a decent role in how the season shakes out.

*Here's hoping we don't play Philly again Week 17. blah. Give me the Giants at home.

 

[bsheeern]

Well, it's also when you play the same teams. Some teams get hot early and then lose steam, others the opposite. Also, remember Houston having to play like 5 times in a row that were coming off of byes? That also can play a decent role in how the season shakes out.

*Here's hoping we don't play Philly again Week 17. blah. Give me the Giants at home.

Very good point. I would hate to play teams coming off a bye. I also hate it when we have our bye early. I love it when we have our bye week and play a good team.

 

[Cowboys&LakersFan]

Ugh. Maybe we should have lost to the Eagles at the end. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Lions and Bucs win their divisions next year. Both are teams on the rise.

There's no way in hell that will happen. The Packers are much, much better than the Lions. Well they are way better than everybody lol, but especially Detroit. Saints are way better than the Bucs.

 

[bracey]

There's no way in hell that will happen. The Packers are much, much better than the Lions. Well they are way better than everybody lol, but especially Detroit. Saints are way better than the Bucs.

The Saints were way better than the Falcons before this year. The Bucs in 2009 were almost as bad as the Panthers this year. The Packers struggled to get the 6 seed this year and the Saints lost to the Falcons twice and then a 7-9 team in the playoffs. The NFL changes fast.

If the Lions can keep Stafford and Best healthy and a more stout defense I think they have a good shot.

The Bucs are more questionable, but Freeman took a big leap forward this year while Blount was a surprise upgrade to Caddy and Mike Williams was the best rookie WR (though Dez will be better if he can stay healthy). They will need a similar improvement in defense though.