A Look At Mocking The Draft

[NeonDeion21]

http://BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1/draft2012.php
http://www.drafttek.com/CMDRound1.asp
http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock

I took the following 5 mock drafts (CBS has two on their site) and broke down the probability that a player could be there at #14 for us. You will see once I get going.

Andrew Luck - 0/5 - 0% chance he is available at #14
Robert Griffin III - 0/5 - 0% chance
Matt Kalil - 0/5 - 0% - chance
Trent Richardson - 0/5 - 0% chance
Morris Claiborne - 0/5 - 0% chance
Justin Blackmon - 0/5 - 0% chance
Ryan Tannehill - 0/5 - 0% chance

That is it for the players who would have a 0% chance at making it to #14. With 7 players already off the board, let's go to the next grouping. I too believe these 7 players are locks to be gone before we select in the first round.

David DeCastro - 1/5 - 20% chance to be available
Riley Reiff - 1/5 - 20% chance
Dontari Poe - 1/5 - 20% chance
Michael Floyd - 2/5 - 40% chance
Quinton Coples - 2/5 - 40% chance
Luke Kuechly - 2/5 - 40% chance
Melvin Ingram - 2/5 - 40% chance
Fletcher Cox - 2/5 - 40% chance

These 8 players all have less than a 50% chance to be there when Dallas selects. Obviously at least 2 of these players will be available however. If 3 or more of these players fall to #14, I believe it increases the possibility of Dallas moving down in the draft.

So let's look at some of the other popular names and see what their percentage of availability might be.

Courtney Upshaw - 5/5 - 100% chance
Michael Brockers - 5/5 - 100% chance
Mark Barron - 5/5 - 100% chance
Peter Konz - 5/5 - 100% chance
Whitney Mercilus - 5/5 100% chance

Some suprise names that when inside the top 14 in a few drafts were Mike Adams, Stephon Gilmore, and Cordy Glenn.

Just thought I should pass along some useless draft information. :laugh2:

 

[jswalker1981]

I've thought about taking full mock drafts (no trades) from cowboyszone and recording the info into a spreadsheet, and create a pivot table that shows how many people are picking players/positions in certain rounds. So maybe we will see that most people want a DE in the first round with guard as a runner up, and see what everyone is targeting with each pick.

 

[SDogo]

I've thought about taking full mock drafts (no trades) from cowboyszone and recording the info into a spreadsheet, and create a pivot table that shows how many people are picking players/positions in certain rounds. So maybe we will see that most people want a DE in the first round with guard as a runner up, and see what everyone is targeting with each pick.

It's a more sophisticated version of the Mock Draft Muncher a Browns site got so popular for and other copied. The Browns one is now run by a local newspaper guy up there.

I have ALWAYS wanted to do the same for this board with one for draft sites and one for members of this board but have never had the time.

If you ever decide to do it let me know, I would love to help and be a part of it. It could become pretty big.

 

[NeonDeion21]

What I thought was interesting from this was that Coples actually has a better chance of falling to us at #14 than DeCastro. I have thought for the longest time he was a lock to go inside of the top 10.

 

[DFWJC]

Thanks Neon

As you know, 5 mocks is a very, very tiny sample rate.
Maybe 20? 30?

Easy for me to say as I'm not doing the work.

 

[DFWJC]

What I thought was interesting from this was that Coples actually has a better chance of falling to us at #14 than DeCastro. I have thought for the longest time he was a lock to go inside of the top 10.

I pulled up 13 straight mocks that had him in the top 10, so like I said, this sample rate is very small. But he also may be dropping down the stretch.

 

[NeonDeion21]

I pulled up 13 straight mocks that had him in the top 10, so like I said, this sample rate is very small. But he also may be dropping down the stretch.

Your right, it is a very small sample rate. I wanted to get a feel of who the consensus players to be selected in front of us. If we want to trade down, we need one of the first 7 players to fall to #14. I have a feeling Richardson is the most likely to slip out of the top 10.

 

[Staxxxx]

It's a more sophisticated version of the Mock Draft Muncher a Browns site got so popular for and other copied. The Browns one is now run by a local newspaper guy up there.

I have ALWAYS wanted to do the same for this board with one for draft sites and one for members of this board but have never had the time.

If you ever decide to do it let me know, I would love to help and be a part of it. It could become pretty big.

Thought this sounded like it could get interesting so I gave it a whirl. I now have 42 full first round drafts in a spreadsheet. My eyes have gone crossed now so I'm going to have to put it away for a bit. If anyone excel guru's out there want to clean it up, add to it, or do some analysis on it shoot me a pm and I'll email it to you.