A negative trend with the offense

[perrykemp]

Cowboys have put up 30+ points the last two games and generally speaking that should make all of us feel optimistic about the offense.

Having said that, there are a couple of metrics that have me worried -- both of them indicating that the offensive isn't nearly as explosive as it was last season. They are:

• Zeke Elliot's ypc have dropped from 5.1 (in 2016) to 3.7. That's a 1.4 yards per carry difference.
• Dak's yards per attempt have dropped from 8.0 (in 2016) to 6.9. Tha't a 1.1 yards per attempt difference.

Both of those metrics feel statistically significant to me.

Questions Am I focusing too much on those metrics? If so, why?

My general theory on the lack of explosiveness in the passing game is that the lack of overall speed at the WR/TE is catching up to them. In particular Witten can't run a lick anymore. There is very little speed at WR1, WR2, and WR3. Butler is the only guy who seems above average to me in that category.

 

[WillieBeamen]

The focus needs to be on this sorry defense. Until they step up, the offense gets a pass from me

 

[Jake]

Cowboys have put up 30+ points the last two games and generally speaking that should make all of us feel optimistic about the offense.

Having said that, there are a couple of metrics that have me worried -- both of them indicating that the offensive isn't nearly as explosive as it was last season. They are:

• Zeke Elliot's ypc have dropped from 5.1 (in 2016) to 3.7. That's a 1.4 yards per carry difference.
• Dak's yards per attempt have dropped from 8.0 (in 2016) to 6.9. Tha't a 1.1 yards per attempt average.

Both of those metrics feel statistically significant to me.

Questions Am I focusing too much on those metrics? If so, why?

My general theory on the lack of explosiveness in the passing game is that the lack of overall speed at the WR/TE is catching up to them. In particular Witten can't run a lick anymore. There is very little speed at WR1, WR2, and WR3. Butler is the only guy who seems above average to me in that category.

Lack of overall speed in the receiving corps and missing two starters from last year's OL.

 

[Jake]

The focus needs to be on this sorry defense. Until they step up, the offense gets a pass from me

Yeah, offense has some questions compared to last year but they aren't why the Cowboys are 2-3.

 

[Sydla]

Did Williams suddenly get slow?

Earlier in his career he had some decent speed to get down the field. Now, sure, his hands are a question. LOL.

 

[Western]

The trash defense is the cause of this team's failure.

 

[DallasDW00ds0n]

OL play has been bad and it doesn't seem like we can make any plays deep center of the field. Only WR making game changing type plays is Butler. Other than that, the 5 yard route to Witten is the only consistent play we got

 

[knightrider94]

Why is Dooley our WR coach? What qualifies him to be a WR coach?

 

[John813]

Zeke still looks off. He still is a good back, but not that elite back we saw last year.
1. He's off mentally(?), potentially due to court case/
2. Maybe not in tip top shape. Gassed/burst isn't as explosive.
3. O-line has taken a step back in run/pass blocking.

I think for Dak, it's the DC's having a full offseason seeing how we attacked. They are daring us to beat them deep and have taken away Bease in the slot. Bryant has shown to struggle against physical corners(week 1-4) and Williams is a JAG as a #2.
Witten is slower, and father time has caught up to him.

 

[Cmac]

The trash defense is the cause of this team's failure.

Somebody drawing defensive plays or signing off on them are just dumb.

 

[LucaBrasi]

61 points in 2 games, usually means 2-0. Unless you are the Dallas Cowboys.

 

[SDCowboy]

We don't have a consistent deep threat, and the oline isn't playing at a level to give enough time to go deep. The latter also largely being the issue with the run game.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Zeke and the Oline have not been in sync this year. Frankly the Oline is just not as good this year and has taken a step back.

With that said...Zeke is currently, and this shocked me, 4th in the league in rushing yards right now.

Interesting to look at the last year to this year numbers...

Last year after 5 games in...546 rushing yards and 5 TDs
This year after 5 games in ...393 rushing yards and 2 TDs.

 

[gimmesix]

Cowboys have put up 30+ points the last two games and generally speaking that should make all of us feel optimistic about the offense.

Having said that, there are a couple of metrics that have me worried -- both of them indicating that the offensive isn't nearly as explosive as it was last season. They are:

• Zeke Elliot's ypc have dropped from 5.1 (in 2016) to 3.7. That's a 1.4 yards per carry difference.
• Dak's yards per attempt have dropped from 8.0 (in 2016) to 6.9. Tha't a 1.1 yards per attempt difference.

Both of those metrics feel statistically significant to me.

Questions Am I focusing too much on those metrics? If so, why?

My general theory on the lack of explosiveness in the passing game is that the lack of overall speed at the WR/TE is catching up to them. In particular Witten can't run a lick anymore. There is very little speed at WR1, WR2, and WR3. Butler is the only guy who seems above average to me in that category.

I think the two are tied to one thing — offensive line play. Elliott's YPC has dropped because the line isn't blocking as well as it did last year and Dak is making shorter, quicker throws because the line isn't blocking as well as it did last year. Despite this, the offense is still playing well enough to win against midling defenses.

 

[Zman5]

Cowboys have put up 30+ points the last two games and generally speaking that should make all of us feel optimistic about the offense.

Having said that, there are a couple of metrics that have me worried -- both of them indicating that the offensive isn't nearly as explosive as it was last season. They are:

• Zeke Elliot's ypc have dropped from 5.1 (in 2016) to 3.7. That's a 1.4 yards per carry difference.
• Dak's yards per attempt have dropped from 8.0 (in 2016) to 6.9. Tha't a 1.1 yards per attempt difference.

Both of those metrics feel statistically significant to me.

Questions Am I focusing too much on those metrics? If so, why?

My general theory on the lack of explosiveness in the passing game is that the lack of overall speed at the WR/TE is catching up to them. In particular Witten can't run a lick anymore. There is very little speed at WR1, WR2, and WR3. Butler is the only guy who seems above average to me in that category.

Take Denver's game out of the equation and see what you get. I'm not the type to cherry pick stats but that game was such an extreme from the norm that you really can't tell anything from it. How many more 8 yards on 9 carries games do you think Zeke will have in his career? Probably none.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

There's definitely some concerns there. But by the same token the defense is causing some of those issues like we saw yesterday where we deliberately went up the field on a couple of drives to take time off the clock to protect our sorry defense.

And I look at most of the dropoff on offense as a function of the O-Line. Obviously the run game can be blamed on the O-Line, but because we don't give Dak enough time, we resort to shorter routes to move the ball.

We may have found something with 21 personnel which is what we switched to and it really got the running game going yesterday. Tough to pass out of 21 personnel because you only have 3 possible receiving outlets at the LoS and out of your 5 possible receiving outlets...one of them is a fullback. But we got some solid production out of 21 personnel and sometimes you just have to go with what's working.




YR

 

[Gameover]

Butler is the only guy who seems above average to me in that category.

And he doesn't get enough snaps! Go figure

Just wait to next year:
Butler gone
Dez a year slower
The body catcher
Witten for the 165th year

Even Swaim can actually move better than Witten and he's certainly better in the passing game than Hanna. Rarely sees the field

KC used three different TE last night
3 different runners
A plethora of receivers

 

[Aven8]

The defense sucks, but the offense isn't right as well. If it weren't for the play breaking down and Dak doing Romo impersonation it would be worse. Zeke doesn't look as fast, but still looks better then everyone else.

In the offseason I either get a new OC with some actual schemes, or I cut Dez and make Witt a PT player now. We don't know what these guys could actually do in another offense because we have never seen it. People will scoff and say we put up 30 twice in a row, but imagine what we would do with someone like Reid etc?? 50-60?

 

[DIAF]

The offense certainly isn't hitting on all cylinders. Oh sure, its scored points but goes into a shell in the 2nd half for whatever reason.

Also, the passing game has the same shortcoming that it did last year - lacking in plays of intermediate yardage. Defenses adjust, our offense has to as well.

Dak's overall numbers are down (asides from TDs) because opponents have adjusted and our OL isn't playing like it did a season ago. You can say "oh, well if you score 30 you should WIN" but if you know you have a leaky defense, your offense HAS to respond and pick it up when the opponent is roaring back and our offense doesn't do that.

I've posted about Dak seemingly shrinking in those instances, but he's got some help there - playcalling needs to keep its foot on the gas.

 

[Zordon]

Why is Dooley our WR coach? What qualifies him to be a WR coach?

Good question.....very sloppy unit.