A Path To Picking At 15

[Shake_Tiller]

Here is an interesting exercise and one plausible scenario --

Lawrence and Wilson go 1-2 and the 49ers really take Jones. Atlanta wants to trade 4 but can't get the king's ransom they almost have to have to do it without looking bad. So they sit there and take Pitts.

The Bengals take Chase at 5 to keep their QB happy. The Dolphins follow with Smith. The Lions take Sewell. The Panthers also don't like their trade options and take Surtain. The Broncos take their QB -- Lance or Fields.

Now the Cowboys sitting at 10 are far enough away from the last QB trade that they can make a good deal but not be pressured to hit a home run. This is the 10th pick rather than top 5.

The Patriots must overpay for a QB, but coming up from 15 to 10, their 2nd round pick is an overpay. They get to 10 without moving a future number 1.

The Cowboys are at 15 and the following are on the board from 11 -- Horn, Parsons, JOK, Collins, Ojulari, Phillips and Slater.

But Waddle would likely go somewhere from 11-14, even if via trade. So would Slater. I think people will be surprised that Darrisaw and Tucker could also be in that mix.

The Cowboys could be looking at a choice among Parsons, JOK, Collins, Moehrig and Horn, though I think the latter will likely have gone. If you like a wild card, they could also consider Ojulari, Phillips and Barmore. I think Phillips is too risky, and I'm not sure they value DT enough to take Barmore, even if they do see him as somewhere near top 15. Parsons might also be gone, especially if I am wrong about a run on OL.

But at 15 JOK, Collins, Ojulari and Moehrig almost certainly would be in play. I could see them taking either of those LBs. In different ways, both could be chess pieces.

Some things I assume -- a 6th QB will be taken before the Cowboys draft in round 2.

A couple of RBs will come off the board late in round 1 or early in round 3. Maybe even one more.

Whether early to mid round 1 or later in the round, there will be a run on OL. I bet as many as 10 are gone by the middle of round 2. Nearly every club has some need for an OL. Seven or so WRs will have gone before 44. Also 1 or 2 TEs.

In other words, at 44, Dallas will certainly have a chance to draft a top 15-20 defender. Given the Pats' number 2, they could be positioned to take another one.

Would you be happy with this choice of options for the first 2 rounds?

1) Parsons, JOK or Collins
2a) Newsome, Farley, Melifonwu or Joseph
2b) Onwuzeriki, McNeil, Nixon, Oweh, Ossai, Basham, Grant or Molden?

 

[fivetwos]

Atlanta taking a tight end at four vs the other options would be tragic for them.

Pitts should have a great career while they search for their next QB.

 

[fivetwos]

Here is an interesting exercise and one plausible scenario --

Lawrence and Wilson go 1-2 and the 49ers really take Jones. Atlanta wants to trade 4 but can't get the king's ransom they almost have to have to do it without looking bad. So they sit there and take Pitts.

The Bengals take Chase at 5 to keep their QB happy. The Dolphins follow with Smith. The Lions take Sewell. The Panthers also don't like their trade options and take Surtain. The Broncos take their QB -- Lance or Fields.

Now the Cowboys sitting at 10 are far enough away from the last QB trade that they can make a good deal but not be pressured to hit a home run. This is the 10th pick rather than top 5.

The Patriots must overpay for a QB, but coming up from 15 to 10, their 2nd round pick is an overpay. They get to 10 without moving a future number 1.

The Cowboys are at 15 and the following are on the board from 11 -- Horn, Parsons, JOK, Collins, Ojulari, Phillips and Slater.

But Waddle would likely go somewhere from 11-14, even if via trade. So would Slater. I think people will be surprised that Darrisaw and Tucker could also be in that mix.

The Cowboys could be looking at a choice among Parsons, JOK, Collins, Moehrig and Horn, though I think the latter will likely have gone. If you like a wild card, they could also consider Ojulari, Phillips and Barmore. I think Phillips is too risky, and I'm not sure they value DT enough to take Barmore, even if they do see him as somewhere near top 15. Parsons might also be gone, especially if I am wrong about a run on OL.

But at 15 JOK, Collins, Ojulari and Moehrig almost certainly would be in play. I could see them taking either of those LBs. In different ways, both could be chess pieces.

Some things I assume -- a 6th QB will be taken before the Cowboys draft in round 2.

A couple of RBs will come off the board late in round 1 or early in round 3. Maybe even one more.

Whether early to mid round 1 or later in the round, there will be a run on OL. I bet as many as 10 are gone by the middle of round 2. Nearly every club has some need for an OL. Seven or so WRs will have gone before 44. Also 1 or 2 TEs.

In other words, at 44, Dallas will certainly have a chance to draft a top 15-20 defender. Given the Pats' number 2, they could be positioned to take another one.

Would you be happy with this choice of options for the first 2 rounds?

1) Parsons, JOK or Collins
2a) Newsome, Farley, Melifonwu or Joseph
2b) Onwuzeriki, McNeil, Nixon, Oweh, Ossai, Basham, Grant or Molden?

Out of those choices....

Collins, Newsome and McNeil would work well.

I think they would all play immediately and be signicant contributors by mid season.

 

[Malhavoc]

Don’t pass on a player you love at 10 to get a player you like at 15. That’s all I ask.

 

[Shake_Tiller]

I agree with that.

My effort was to map out a scenario where you could be positioned to take a player you want at the appropriate draft position.

By all means, if you love your alternative at 10, make the pick.

 

[tm1119]

Atlanta taking a tight end at four vs the other options would be tragic for them.

Pitts should have a great career while they search for their next QB.

Not saying I agree with their strategy, but Matt Ryan is more or less locked in for the next 2 years at least. They would have to eat $40M to get out of his deal even after 2021. Obviously sitting for 2 years worked out for Aaron Rodgers, but it’s a path most teams don’t take. With Arthur Blank not know for being the most football savvy guy and seeing his shiny new stadium sit empty for a year, it won’t shock if the Falcons “go for it” and take a non qb

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Here is an interesting exercise and one plausible scenario --

Lawrence and Wilson go 1-2 and the 49ers really take Jones. Atlanta wants to trade 4 but can't get the king's ransom they almost have to have to do it without looking bad. So they sit there and take Pitts.

The Bengals take Chase at 5 to keep their QB happy. The Dolphins follow with Smith. The Lions take Sewell. The Panthers also don't like their trade options and take Surtain. The Broncos take their QB -- Lance or Fields.

Now the Cowboys sitting at 10 are far enough away from the last QB trade that they can make a good deal but not be pressured to hit a home run. This is the 10th pick rather than top 5.

The Patriots must overpay for a QB, but coming up from 15 to 10, their 2nd round pick is an overpay. They get to 10 without moving a future number 1.

The Cowboys are at 15 and the following are on the board from 11 -- Horn, Parsons, JOK, Collins, Ojulari, Phillips and Slater.

But Waddle would likely go somewhere from 11-14, even if via trade. So would Slater. I think people will be surprised that Darrisaw and Tucker could also be in that mix.

The Cowboys could be looking at a choice among Parsons, JOK, Collins, Moehrig and Horn, though I think the latter will likely have gone. If you like a wild card, they could also consider Ojulari, Phillips and Barmore. I think Phillips is too risky, and I'm not sure they value DT enough to take Barmore, even if they do see him as somewhere near top 15. Parsons might also be gone, especially if I am wrong about a run on OL.

But at 15 JOK, Collins, Ojulari and Moehrig almost certainly would be in play. I could see them taking either of those LBs. In different ways, both could be chess pieces.

Some things I assume -- a 6th QB will be taken before the Cowboys draft in round 2.

A couple of RBs will come off the board late in round 1 or early in round 3. Maybe even one more.

Whether early to mid round 1 or later in the round, there will be a run on OL. I bet as many as 10 are gone by the middle of round 2. Nearly every club has some need for an OL. Seven or so WRs will have gone before 44. Also 1 or 2 TEs.

In other words, at 44, Dallas will certainly have a chance to draft a top 15-20 defender. Given the Pats' number 2, they could be positioned to take another one.

Would you be happy with this choice of options for the first 2 rounds?

1) Parsons, JOK or Collins
2a) Newsome, Farley, Melifonwu or Joseph
2b) Onwuzeriki, McNeil, Nixon, Oweh, Ossai, Basham, Grant or Molden?

in this complicated scenario, my choices would be Parsons, Newsome, Nixon or McNiel

 

[DFWJC]

Here is an interesting exercise and one plausible scenario --

Lawrence and Wilson go 1-2 and the 49ers really take Jones. Atlanta wants to trade 4 but can't get the king's ransom they almost have to have to do it without looking bad. So they sit there and take Pitts.

The Bengals take Chase at 5 to keep their QB happy. The Dolphins follow with Smith. The Lions take Sewell. The Panthers also don't like their trade options and take Surtain. The Broncos take their QB -- Lance or Fields.

Now the Cowboys sitting at 10 are far enough away from the last QB trade that they can make a good deal but not be pressured to hit a home run. This is the 10th pick rather than top 5.

The Patriots must overpay for a QB, but coming up from 15 to 10, their 2nd round pick is an overpay. They get to 10 without moving a future number 1.

The Cowboys are at 15 and the following are on the board from 11 -- Horn, Parsons, JOK, Collins, Ojulari, Phillips and Slater.

But Waddle would likely go somewhere from 11-14, even if via trade. So would Slater. I think people will be surprised that Darrisaw and Tucker could also be in that mix.

The Cowboys could be looking at a choice among Parsons, JOK, Collins, Moehrig and Horn, though I think the latter will likely have gone. If you like a wild card, they could also consider Ojulari, Phillips and Barmore. I think Phillips is too risky, and I'm not sure they value DT enough to take Barmore, even if they do see him as somewhere near top 15. Parsons might also be gone, especially if I am wrong about a run on OL.

But at 15 JOK, Collins, Ojulari and Moehrig almost certainly would be in play. I could see them taking either of those LBs. In different ways, both could be chess pieces.

Some things I assume -- a 6th QB will be taken before the Cowboys draft in round 2.

A couple of RBs will come off the board late in round 1 or early in round 3. Maybe even one more.

Whether early to mid round 1 or later in the round, there will be a run on OL. I bet as many as 10 are gone by the middle of round 2. Nearly every club has some need for an OL. Seven or so WRs will have gone before 44. Also 1 or 2 TEs.

In other words, at 44, Dallas will certainly have a chance to draft a top 15-20 defender. Given the Pats' number 2, they could be positioned to take another one.

Would you be happy with this choice of options for the first 2 rounds?

1) Parsons, JOK or Collins
2a) Newsome, Farley, Melifonwu or Joseph
2b) Onwuzeriki, McNeil, Nixon, Oweh, Ossai, Basham, Grant or Molden?

Not out of the question that NE might want to trade up!

But you aren't saying that they would give us both 15 and their 2nd are you? That won't happen

They would do that if we threw in our 3rd (75) in return (so 10 and 75 for 15, 46 and maybe a 6th or so)
OR maybe they traded 15 and their 2022 2nd for 10

 

[Shake_Tiller]

Not out of the question that NE might want to trade up!

But you aren't saying that they would give us both 15 and their 2nd are you? That won't happen

They would do that if we threw in our 3rd (75) in return (so 10 and 75 for 15, 46 and maybe a 6th or so)
OR maybe they traded 15 and their 2022 2nd for 10

Well, to be honest, I don't expect the Patriots to trade up at all. This was more about demonstrating potential scenarios and why the Cowboys could pay a lot of attention to players in the early- to mid-first round, such as JOK, Collins, etc.

That said, it has become understood that teams moving up for QB should expect to overpay. Look at what the 49ers surrendered, as an example. And my scenario (which admittedly could get shot full of holes) is this...

Because of the 49ers trade, clubs in the top 5 will be under pressure, if they trade down, to get a very strong package. If they can't, they might be inclined to stand and make a pick.

The Cowboys are far enough down the board to accept a more reasonable trade offer, even if the club with which they deal is coming up for a QB. But they also should expect to be overpaid relative to the chart.

Example: Lions want a 2022 1 and something in 2021 as well to allow the Pats in. The Lions feel they have to justify the trade by getting a big haul.

The Pats, under this scenario, might get the same QB by fairly modestly overpaying to get to 10.

I think it is possible teams in the top 7 or so price their picks out of the market.

It is also possible I am full of cow dung.

 

[fivetwos]

Well, to be honest, I don't expect the Patriots to trade up at all. This was more about demonstrating potential scenarios and why the Cowboys could pay a lot of attention to players in the early- to mid-first round, such as JOK, Collins, etc.

That said, it has become understood that teams moving up for QB should expect to overpay. Look at what the 49ers surrendered, as an example. And my scenario (which admittedly could get shot full of holes) is this...

Because of the 49ers trade, clubs in the top 5 will be under pressure, if they trade down, to get a very strong package. If they can't, they might be inclined to stand and make a pick.

The Cowboys are far enough down the board to accept a more reasonable trade offer, even if the club with which they deal is coming up for a QB. But they also should expect to be overpaid relative to the chart.

Example: Lions want a 2022 1 and something in 2021 as well to allow the Pats in. The Lions feel they have to justify the trade by getting a big haul.

The Pats, under this scenario, might get the same QB by fairly modestly overpaying to get to 10.

I think it is possible teams in the top 7 or so price their picks out of the market.

It is also possible I am full of cow dung.

I dont think its all an outrageous scenario that a team in the 20s may be targeting a player who is too expensive to go into the top picks and get.....but if that player slips to 10, it becomes worth it as the price goes down.

Good point.

 

[DFWJC]

Well, to be honest, I don't expect the Patriots to trade up at all. This was more about demonstrating potential scenarios and why the Cowboys could pay a lot of attention to players in the early- to mid-first round, such as JOK, Collins, etc.

That said, it has become understood that teams moving up for QB should expect to overpay. Look at what the 49ers surrendered, as an example. And my scenario (which admittedly could get shot full of holes) is this...

Because of the 49ers trade, clubs in the top 5 will be under pressure, if they trade down, to get a very strong package. If they can't, they might be inclined to stand and make a pick.

The Cowboys are far enough down the board to accept a more reasonable trade offer, even if the club with which they deal is coming up for a QB. But they also should expect to be overpaid relative to the chart.

Example: Lions want a 2022 1 and something in 2021 as well to allow the Pats in. The Lions feel they have to justify the trade by getting a big haul.

The Pats, under this scenario, might get the same QB by fairly modestly overpaying to get to 10.

I think it is possible teams in the top 7 or so price their picks out of the market.

It is also possible I am full of cow dung.

Hey, I hear you.

I'm just telling you that unless it's for the top 2 overall spots, teams do not overpay to trade up for QBs. It's a false assumption that many (very understandably) make. But they are at least willing to trade up more often.

Being a draft trade nerd, I did a study dating back 10 and then 15 years.
It never has happened even once. They don't overpay.

Teams use the trade value chart within +/- 5% or so, and if future picks are used, they devalue them each year by a little less than one round per year. So a 2022 2nd would worth a 2022 3rd (but top half of 3rd)

On the good side.....
The main benefit is that teams are at least are willing to trade up (to 10, for example) if a QB they like is there.
Sometimes, there aren't even any trade partners available, but if there's still a QB left, there very well could be.

 

[Shake_Tiller]

Hey, I hear you.

I'm just telling you that unless it's for the top 2 overall spots, teams DO NOT overpay to trade up for QBs.
Being the draft trade nerd that I am, I did a study dating back 10 and then 15 years.
It never has happened even once.

Teams use the trade value chart within +/- 5% or so, and if future picks are used, they devalue them each year by a little less than one round per year. So a 2022 2nd would worth a 2022 3rd (but top half of 3rd)

On the good side.....
The main benefit is that teams are at least are willing to trade up (to 10, for example) of a QB they like is there.
Sometimes, there aren't even any trade partners available, but if there's still a QB left, there very well could be.

Great research! I'm happy to accept your finding, and thank you.

Maybe this best illustrates why trading down isn't always a panacea. Banking picks is great, but the potential of trading down from a great player is worth keeping in mind.

 

[Future]

Not saying I agree with their strategy, but Matt Ryan is more or less locked in for the next 2 years at least. They would have to eat $40M to get out of his deal even after 2021. Obviously sitting for 2 years worked out for Aaron Rodgers, but it’s a path most teams don’t take. With Arthur Blank not know for being the most football savvy guy and seeing his shiny new stadium sit empty for a year, it won’t shock if the Falcons “go for it” and take a non qb

They hired Arthur Smith because of what he did with Tannehill, and are going to try to do the same thing with Ryan, IMO. That means building a team that wins now.

You could make the case that trading down a few spots gives you a better opportunity to do that, but I agree that I wouldn't rule out Pitts - or any other offensive player other than QB - at 4.

 

[Verdict]

Not saying I agree with their strategy, but Matt Ryan is more or less locked in for the next 2 years at least. They would have to eat $40M to get out of his deal even after 2021. Obviously sitting for 2 years worked out for Aaron Rodgers, but it’s a path most teams don’t take. With Arthur Blank not know for being the most football savvy guy and seeing his shiny new stadium sit empty for a year, it won’t shock if the Falcons “go for it” and take a non qb

If I’m Atlanta, I’m looking very hard at a QB at #4 overall. Matty Ice is getting long in the tooth and they may not be in this spot again for some time.

If they see someone they like at QB it would be hard to pass on one.

 

[Proof]

Hey, I hear you.

I'm just telling you that unless it's for the top 2 overall spots, teams do not overpay to trade up for QBs. It's a false assumption that many (very understandably) make. But they are at least willing to trade up more often.

Being a draft trade nerd, I did a study dating back 10 and then 15 years.
It never has happened even once. They don't overpay.

Teams use the trade value chart within +/- 5% or so, and if future picks are used, they devalue them each year by a little less than one round per year. So a 2022 2nd would worth a 2022 3rd (but top half of 3rd)

On the good side.....
The main benefit is that teams are at least are willing to trade up (to 10, for example) if a QB they like is there.
Sometimes, there aren't even any trade partners available, but if there's still a QB left, there very well could be.

could you clarify this? Are you saying that other than trading for the first or 2nd pick every other qb related trade up was directly in line with the trade value chart?

 

[DanA]

Pat Mahomes is a good example. He went pick to and was traded for pick 27, 91 & future 1st (ended up being pick 22)

Pick 10 = 1300

27 = 680
91 = 136
Total = 716 points

That values the future 1st at just under 600 points which IMO is about right considering they had a good team and Alex Smith who is solid if unspectacular. Based on that I think a reasonable trade with New England might be 15 + 46 (1,490 points) for 10 + 99 + 115 (1,480 points).

 

[AKATheRake]

Get Jerry's War Daddy at #10.

 

[DFWJC]

could you clarify this? Are you saying that other than trading for the first or 2nd pick every other qb related trade up was directly in line with the trade value chart?

Not exactly 100% directly in line.....but very close.....say within about +/- 5%...some lower, some higher.
Also, I think that might apply to some in the top 3 vs top 2. Sam Darnold, Goff, and Wentz all were in the 80-90% instead of 95+% match.
Future picks make it less perfect, as you would expect.

But
Jackson (pick 10, btw) was a 95% match
RG3 a 97% match
Watson...95% match
etc

The non-QBs were even more accurate.

Surprising, I know, it's a bit surprising.

Oh, and also...if you get WAY down in the draft (mid 6th to end of 7th)...when little move means 30-100% change of the value....it becomes a blur. At that point, GMs are just throwing in picks to fill the gaps/differences of the real trades in rounds 1-4

I ran all the trades from 2020 thru the entire draft, not just 1st round.
They almost all were at 95-98%, but there were 2-3 that were closer to 90%.
The teams trading up usually were the onces at 95%....so 5% underpay.

Also, once actual players are also involved in a trade as well as picks, it becomes really hard to measure. So if there was a player thrown in, I did not include the trade in the study.

 

[J-man]

Here is an interesting exercise and one plausible scenario --



Would you be happy with this choice of options for the first 2 rounds?

1) Parsons, JOK or Collins
2a) Newsome, Farley, Melifonwu or Joseph
2b) Onwuzeriki, McNeil, Nixon, Oweh, Ossai, Basham, Grant or Molden?

I'd take either JOK or Collins, but lean to Collins
for the second pick I'd be happy with any of the first 3 options, but lean to Farley
and for the 3rd pick McNeil, Levi, or Basham would all be good picks but I lean McNeil

To me Collins, Farley and McNeil is a home run draft.

 

[McKDaddy]

Don’t pass on a player you love at 10 to get a player you like at 15. That’s all I ask.

But do you love the one player more than you would love the combination of players?

I think its likely the players available at 10 will be tempting but maybe not someone I CAN'T pass on. Would love to have JOK as an option in a trade back and also be able to grab a Newsome or top Safety with the picks from the trade back.