A troubling sign regarding tonight's game...

[EastDallasCowboy]

I know most folks on this board don't put much stock in Vegas, but I just checked how the money is being bet on-line and it doesn't bode well for the Cowboys.

99% of the money appears to be going on the Cowboys minus the three. That's not a good thing. Generally speaking, if a road favorite is getting the vast majority of the money (my rule of thumb is over 80%) then the best bet is to take the home team plus the points. The more lopsided the money, the better the bet.

Examples from today include Washington (96% of money went towards them) who is currently in OT, Cincinnati (84% of money) whom lost by 12, and the Patriots (94%) whom are just kicking off.

It's not a lock that this is always the case, the Patriots for instance have been bucking this trend all year, but it's a good rule of thumb and it doesn't bode well for Dallas. The linemakers know what they're doing, and if 99% of betters are going against them, odds are the linemakers are right.

 

[theogt]

So people are overwhelmingly betting on Dallas winning big and you're saying this is somehow a sign Dallas will lose?

 

[Crown Royal]

Smooth move using the Skins game as an example.

 

[EastDallasCowboy]

Yes, i realize it's counterintuitive, but that's a bad sign.

There's a reason casinos are multi-billion dollar monolithic structures and not grass huts, and it's because they're designed to make money. The sportsbook is no different.

A linemakers job is to create a line in which 50% of the people take both sides, that way the casino always wins by taking the juice (the % of money they dont repay from each bet). These linemakers are good, real real good.....that's why they have their jobs and why the casinos offer betting to begin with.

So when the majority of money is leaning one direction, its says one of two things. Either a) the linemakers were wrong, which is rarely the case, or b) the gambling public is wrong, which is usually the case.

Again, look at Cincinnati and Washington from today, both fit this criteria, and neither of those teams covered (although Washington did end up winning).

edit: Crown Royal, the Skins didn't cover...the spread was 3 1/2. It fits perfectly. Problem is the Dallas spread is 3.

 

[BoysRule2]

Well thanks alot for raising our nerv levels!

 

[Crown Royal]

I understand what you are saying, but it really has more to do with the spread than anything else.

That being said, it is scary because the spread is so small tonight.

 

[bbgun]

blue jerseys?

 

[BoysRule2]

B/c EastDallasCowboy says so.

 

[peplaw06]

Vegas doesn't win em all. They already won big with the Skins and Bengals games. We don't know how the Pats/Colts is gonna turn out yet. I'm sure they lost the Chargers game.

These things tend to even out, with a slight edge going to Vegas. They don't win em all.

 

[Crown Royal]

The difference between your thread and his thread:

His thread was well thought out and gave good reasons with some analysis of those reasons. I don't agree, but at least it created good convo.


Your thread is a troll thread that will be merged and has nothing to say but to call out another member.

thanks.

 

[jimmy40]

I know most folks on this board don't put much stock in Vegas, but I just checked how the money is being bet on-line and it doesn't bode well for the Cowboys.

99% of the money appears to be going on the Cowboys minus the three. That's not a good thing. Generally speaking, if a road favorite is getting the vast majority of the money (my rule of thumb is over 80%) then the best bet is to take the home team plus the points. The more lopsided the money, the better the bet.

Examples from today include Washington (96% of money went towards them) who is currently in OT, Cincinnati (84% of money) whom lost by 12, and the Patriots (94%) whom are just kicking off.

It's not a lock that this is always the case, the Patriots for instance have been bucking this trend all year, but it's a good rule of thumb and it doesn't bode well for Dallas. The linemakers know what they're doing, and if 99% of betters are going against them, odds are the linemakers are right.

A better sign is we are good and Philly sucks, I say we win.

 

[Bizwah]

I just don't get any of this gambling stuff.

Good thing I stay away from it.

 

[BoysRule2]

I just don't get any of this gambling stuff.

Good thing I stay away from it.

Me too-I don't even buy those scratch-offs either.

 

[zrinkill]

What?

 

[SultanOfSix]

So basically what you're saying is that gambling determines the result of football games, like the NBA.

 

[BoysRule2]

EastDallasCowboy-didn't 90%+ of betters put their money on the Boys when they played the Rams?

 

[EastDallasCowboy]

I believe so, but they were also at home. This theory only addresses road teams on account of the % of teams that generally lose on the road.

Look, I'm not saying that because of this the Cowboys are going to lose, I'm just pointing out that it's a troubling sign. When you're dealing with only a 3 point spread and the money breaks down like this it's troubling.

The Patriots have been bucking this trend all year, it happens....but the majority of the time if a road team is that favored by betters, it is wise to take the home team and when the spread is 3 or less, it's especially so.

 

[BoysRule2]

I believe so, but they were also at home. This theory only addresses road teams on account of the % of teams that generally lose on the road.

Look, I'm not saying that because of this the Cowboys are going to lose, I'm just pointing out that it's a troubling sign. When you're dealing with only a 3 point spread and the money breaks down like this it's troubling.

The Patriots have been bucking this trend all year, it happens....but the majority of the time if a road team is that favored by betters, it is wise to take the home team and when the spread is 3 or less, it's especially so.

FWIW-where is all this perception that the Bills are a BAD team? They've won 3/4 games coming in today-sure, Edwards is injured, but they've really rallied in the last month.

I just find it amazing how some football fans can be uninformed.

 

[EastDallasCowboy]

The Bills have been good to me for a fair amount of money the past two weeks as people underate them.

 

[BoysRule2]

The Bills have been good to me for a fair amount of money the past two weeks as people underate them.

And not to mention too with NFC vs. AFC matchups, the AFC team ALMOST ALWAYS has the edge, for some reason.

Heck-even the lowly Jets and FINS have given their respective NFC opponents fits.(I wasn't surprised the Jets took the Skins to OT)