A whole new way of looking at edge rushers: is this legit?

[JeffG]

I follow Jonah Tuls on Twitter (@JonahTulsNFL). He writes for USA Today and Cowboys Blitz. Tuls referred his followers to an article on edge rushers written by John Owning. I have never heard of John Owning, but Tuls says, "There are few draft analysts I trust more than John." So I went to the article, and here is how HE ranks edge rushers in this draft. It sounds freaking crazy. Could this guy be for real? Or is he just generating clicks?

Tier 1 - top 10 pick:
Myles Garrett (of course)

Tier 2 - first-round pick:
Carl Lawson
Derek Rivers
Solomon Thomas
T.J. Watt
Tyrus Bowser

Tier 3 - early second-round pick:
Malik McDowell
Derek Barnett (who we've been told will not make it to #28: "lacks explosiveness and relies on jumping the snap count" and "can be dominated at the point-of-attack by bigger OTs"???)
Tim Williams
Taco Charlton ("lacks the extra gear to get the most out of his relatively flexible lower half, and his hand techniques lack polish"???)

Tier 4 - mid-to-late second-round pick:
Charles Freaking Harris! (I think he only ranks him down for his lack of strength against the run. This is the worst he says: "Harris tends to struggle against the run. He can get bullied at the point of attack, and he isn’t sound with his gap responsibilities.")

Tier 5 - third-round pick:
Jordan Willis
Vince Biegel
Takkarist McKinley!!! ("... he is an extremely stiff and linear player as well. McKinley struggles to carve the corner with his speed rushes, and he lacks the refined hand usage to soften the edge. He false steps out of his stance, and he lacks a lot in terms of fundamental technique. He routinely plays with poor pad level, which will cause him to get dominated at the point of attack in the NFL if he doesn’t fix it.)

I'll stop there. The whole article is here: https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/owning-final-look-edge-defender-class-2017-nfl-draft/

I would generally disregard this is clickbait, but it came with the recommendation of a writer I have some faith in. So is this guy full of it, or does he have something here??? Draftniks, please let me know!

 

[Leadbelly]

Good article. Thanks!

I suspect he weights it significantly by whether a guy can ever hope to play RDE. Anyone who can't skate around the edge is automatically a lower tier prospect. The ball just comes out too fast in the modern NFL to waste a pick on outside rushers who have to brute force their way to the QB. Depending on the defense a particular club runs, some GMs don't believe in taking a LDE in RD1. They just feel you can find them later or make a good one from two guys through substitutions.

Honestly, this is pretty close to how I have DEs arranged. The only big disagreement i have is Rivers. For our D, I'd go...

T1 - M Garrett
T2 - S Thomas, TJ Watt, D Barnett, T Bowser
T3 - M McDowell, T Charlton
T4 - J Willis, T McKinley, C Harris
T5 - D Rivers, T Basham, V Biegel, T Kpassagnon

I've felt for awhile McKinley is more SAM than edge rusher. He has freakish straight line speed and length, but I don't really see him use any of it. Harris is so poor vs run and middling athletically he's destined to be a situational player a defensive coordinator has to hide. And I don't have Lawson (size, injuries) or Tim Williams (drugs) on my list at all.

 

[xwalker]

I follow Jonah Tuls on Twitter (@JonahTulsNFL). He writes for USA Today and Cowboys Blitz. Tuls referred his followers to an article on edge rushers written by John Owning. I have never heard of John Owning, but Tuls says, "There are few draft analysts I trust more than John." So I went to the article, and here is how HE ranks edge rushers in this draft. It sounds freaking crazy. Could this guy be for real? Or is he just generating clicks?

Tier 1 - top 10 pick:
Myles Garrett (of course)

Tier 2 - first-round pick:
Carl Lawson
Derek Rivers
Solomon Thomas
T.J. Watt
Tyrus Bowser

Tier 3 - early second-round pick:
Malik McDowell
Derek Barnett (who we've been told will not make it to #28: "lacks explosiveness and relies on jumping the snap count" and "can be dominated at the point-of-attack by bigger OTs"???)
Tim Williams
Taco Charlton ("lacks the extra gear to get the most out of his relatively flexible lower half, and his hand techniques lack polish"???)

Tier 4 - mid-to-late second-round pick:
Charles Freaking Harris! (I think he only ranks him down for his lack of strength against the run. This is the worst he says: "Harris tends to struggle against the run. He can get bullied at the point of attack, and he isn’t sound with his gap responsibilities.")

Tier 5 - third-round pick:
Jordan Willis
Vince Biegel
Takkarist McKinley!!! ("... he is an extremely stiff and linear player as well. McKinley struggles to carve the corner with his speed rushes, and he lacks the refined hand usage to soften the edge. He false steps out of his stance, and he lacks a lot in terms of fundamental technique. He routinely plays with poor pad level, which will cause him to get dominated at the point of attack in the NFL if he doesn’t fix it.)

I'll stop there. The whole article is here: https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/owning-final-look-edge-defender-class-2017-nfl-draft/

I would generally disregard this is clickbait, but it came with the recommendation of a writer I have some faith in. So is this guy full of it, or does he have something here??? Draftniks, please let me know!

It's good to see opinions that vary from the mainstream. The mainstream draft guys like Kiper won't vary much because fans generally hate analysts that vary from the mainstream.

Sometimes it's done to get clicks, but this guy seems to have done a lot of work analyzing these players.

I think he might be a little overly influenced by measurable(s), but it's possible that he has a point on some of these players.

Downgrading Harris for lack of run defense is something that NFL teams are more likely to do than fans/media.

Inevitably if someone does an analysis without looking at the mainstream rankings, he'll likely have a player much higher and another player much lower than the mainstream rankings. In this case it's Rivers higher and McKinley lower.

 

[Alexander]

Owning really really has a crush on Derek Rivers.

 

[reddyuta]

I agree Takk is very stiff,he reminds me of another UCLA DE Odhiguzuwa.I wont be surprised if he falls in the draft especially with the injury .

 

[xwalker]

Good article. Thanks!

I suspect he weights it significantly by whether a guy can ever hope to play RDE. Anyone who can't skate around the edge is automatically a lower tier prospect. The ball just comes out too fast in the modern NFL to waste a pick on outside rushers who have to brute force their way to the QB. Depending on the defense a particular club runs, some GMs don't believe in taking a LDE in RD1. They just feel you can find them later or make a good one from two guys through substitutions.

Honestly, this is pretty close to how I have DEs arranged. The only big disagreement i have is Rivers. For our D, I'd go...

T1 - M Garrett
T2 - S Thomas, TJ Watt, D Barnett, T Bowser
T3 - M McDowell, T Charlton
T4 - J Willis, T McKinley, C Harris
T5 - D Rivers, T Basham, V Biegel, T Kpassagnon

I've felt for awhile McKinley is more SAM than edge rusher. He has freakish straight line speed and length, but I don't really see him use any of it. Harris is so poor vs run and middling athletically he's destined to be a situational player a defensive coordinator has to hide. And I don't have Lawson (size, injuries) or Tim Williams (drugs) on my list at all.

It takes several less steps to go straight at the QB as compared to taking a wide arc around. Greg Hardy was one of the best RDEs in the NFL before losing it mentally and he was not blowing around the edge like Von Miller.

 

[xwalker]

Owning really really has a crush on Derek Rivers.

Rivers has similarities to Watt, IMO.

 

[DFWJC]

Good article. Thanks!

I suspect he weights it significantly by whether a guy can ever hope to play RDE. Anyone who can't skate around the edge is automatically a lower tier prospect. The ball just comes out too fast in the modern NFL to waste a pick on outside rushers who have to brute force their way to the QB. Depending on the defense a particular club runs, some GMs don't believe in taking a LDE in RD1. They just feel you can find them later or make a good one from two guys through substitutions.

Honestly, this is pretty close to how I have DEs arranged. The only big disagreement i have is Rivers. For our D, I'd go...

T1 - M Garrett
T2 - S Thomas, TJ Watt, D Barnett, T Bowser
T3 - M McDowell, T Charlton
T4 - J Willis, T McKinley, C Harris
T5 - D Rivers, T Basham, V Biegel, T Kpassagnon

I've felt for awhile McKinley is more SAM than edge rusher. He has freakish straight line speed and length, but I don't really see him use any of it. Harris is so poor vs run and middling athletically he's destined to be a situational player a defensive coordinator has to hide. And I don't have Lawson (size, injuries) or Tim Williams (drugs) on my list at all.

Looking forward seeing how this works out.

 

[Carson]

I agree Takk is very stiff,he reminds me of another UCLA DE Odhiguzuwa.I wont be surprised if he falls in the draft especially with the injury .

IMO, he is the one pick I hate come Thursday night.

 

[locked&loaded]

I think i watched 3 vids of lawson on draft breakdown. Ive seen more action in a no pads practice. Maybe i have to go back? I don't get it.