AccuScore for this week

[Phoenix]

Average score: Cowboys 27.5, Eagles 21.6

Dallas: 66% favorite
Eagles: 33% favorite

Line: Cowboys by 4



The Cowboys pass rush has sacked the opposing QB at least 3 times during their hot 3 game streak. If they can harass McNabb again this week and limit the big down field pass completions the Cowboys should win. If the Cowboys have 3 or more sacks they have a 74 percent chance of winning, but if they 2 or less the game is a virtual coin flip with Dallas having a 51 percent chance. Tony Romo has thrown just 2 INTs in his past 3 games and there is a high 45 percent chance that he throws no INTs this week. However, if Romo throws 1 or more INTs the Eagles chances increase to 42 percent. If the Eagles can also hold Marion Barber and Felix Jones to under 4.5 yards per carry while also forcing at least 1 Romo INT then Philadelphia has a 57 percent chance of winning by an average score of PHI 25, DAL 22. AccuScore has powered more than 10,000 simulations for every NFL game for ESPN.com, each simulated one play at a time and minimum of 10,000 times. For more, visit AccuScore.

 

[Phoenix]

Average score: Cowboys 27.5, Eagles 21.6

Dallas: 66% favorite
Eagles: 33% favorite

Line: Cowboys by 4



The Cowboys pass rush has sacked the opposing QB at least 3 times during their hot 3 game streak. If they can harass McNabb again this week and limit the big down field pass completions the Cowboys should win. If the Cowboys have 3 or more sacks they have a 74 percent chance of winning, but if they 2 or less the game is a virtual coin flip with Dallas having a 51 percent chance. Tony Romo has thrown just 2 INTs in his past 3 games and there is a high 45 percent chance that he throws no INTs this week. However, if Romo throws 1 or more INTs the Eagles chances increase to 42 percent. If the Eagles can also hold Marion Barber and Felix Jones to under 4.5 yards per carry while also forcing at least 1 Romo INT then Philadelphia has a 57 percent chance of winning by an average score of PHI 25, DAL 22. AccuScore has powered more than 10,000 simulations for every NFL game for ESPN.com, each simulated one play at a time and minimum of 10,000 times. For more, visit AccuScore.

I predict:

* Dallas gets 3-5 sacks this game. I think Wade has been holding back a bit on the schemes, and I think this first playoff game, all h*ll is going to be unleashed by him. Spencer has been coming on strong. Ratliff is OWNING that backup center of the Eagles. Ware, well, he's going against Peters, the LT, who was brought in specifically to defend against Ware, as he did well previously. I think the Cowboys (read: Wade) move Ware from side to side, employ some stunts even. Chances of winning for the Cowboys here increase to 80% IMHO.

* Romo will have no interceptions this game. That fluke one last game was his last of the season. Odds just went up to 85% IMHO.

* Barber and Felix will run all over the Eagles. Cowboys OLmen will be plowing the road for them. I think they will probably end up right at about that 4.5 Avg. I also think BOTH of them will break off a big run, maybe a run after catch. But something like 30-40 yards, if not longer.

* Furthermore, I think Miles Austin will continue to abuse Asante Samuel. I think another big day is in store for our newest bright shining star.

* Yet again, not a single punted ball will hit the video boards during the game.




So, I have the Cowboys at about an 85% favorite. Cowboys are favored by 4. Last week they were favored by 3. I don't like this. I want everyone against us, betting against us, after all, wasn't all the Mediots just in the past few weeks talking about the greatness of the Eagles, and how they look to be be best team in the NFC now?

Are any of them even mentioning the Cowboys in that conversation? If so, I must have missed it. One recent commentary I heard on BSPN radio in my car...they mentioned every NFC team and their chances except two of them: The Cowboys and the Cardinals.

I would laugh my butt off if it came down to those two teams in the NFC Championship.

We're gonna win. Trust me. This is a different team, by far, than the past decade.

And...I BELIEVE.

 

[goliadmike]

Thanks for posting this phoenix. I have a gut feeling this will be more like the first game being tighter and lower scoring.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

What did Accuscore predict for last weeks game?

 

[Phoenix]

What did Accuscore predict for last weeks game?

An average Cowboys victory of roughly the same score as this one, with both team's scores for the game being about a single point higher.

Pretty sure I posted what it was for last week, just search for AccuScore.



Edit:

Found my previous AccuScore post for last week:

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=173388&highlight=accuscore

 

[SaltwaterServr]

An average Cowboys victory of roughly the same score as this one, with both team's scores for the game being about a single point higher.

Pretty sure I posted what it was for last week, just search for AccuScore.

Yeah, I remember reading something along those lines.

I'll have to dig it up. I remember something about the combined catches for Celek and Jackson being about 125 yards or so would boost the Eagles chances to almost lead-pipe lock status.

EDIT: Found it. Accuscore said that if Celek and Jackson had 125 yards and a touchdown between them then the Eagles would score 38 points and win in 48% of the simulations.

They got 143 yards.

 

[Phoenix]

Yeah, I remember reading something along those lines.

I'll have to dig it up. I remember something about the combined catches for Celek and Jackson being about 125 yards or so would boost the Eagles chances to almost lead-pipe lock status.

EDIT: Found it. Accuscore said that if Celek and Jackson had 125 yards and a touchdown between them then the Eagles would score 38 points and win in 48% of the simulations.

They got 143 yards.

NOBODY can accurately get these games correct, unless someone out there really can either (a) travel to the future or (b) possess precognition and the ability to foresee NFL game details in advance. But so far, I've not seen anyone else do a better job than these guys. They were way off on the final score as well weren't they? But did they correctly predict the winner, and by at least 3 points? Yes and yes. They are very good at that.

Reality games played in our universe of course do not match up to the averages that they portray in their simulations. "That's why they play the game."

But they are GOOD at predicted winner and winning margin (at a minimum).

At least from what I have seen from Cowboys game predictions.

Enjoy nitpicking?

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

35-21 Dallas!

 

[Daudr]

35-21 Dallas!

Dallas 34 - Eagles 10 would have nice, historic overtones.

 

[Phoenix]

Yeah, I remember reading something along those lines.

I'll have to dig it up. I remember something about the combined catches for Celek and Jackson being about 125 yards or so would boost the Eagles chances to almost lead-pipe lock status.

EDIT: Found it. Accuscore said that if Celek and Jackson had 125 yards and a touchdown between them then the Eagles would score 38 points and win in 48% of the simulations.

They got 143 yards.

Wait. I suddenly realized that I don't think I'm done yet with replying to this.

When you see those projected 125 yards above for Celek and Jackson, do you for a moment think that the simulations did not have Jackson having most of those yards?

And those 38 points you mentioned? Ha ha. You are WAY off. It was more like RIGHT BETWEEN 21-22.

And 48% favorites for the Eagles? What post were you looking at, again? Have no idea. What the projection ACTUALY was was for the Eagles as a 33% favorite.

And of the 125 projected combined yards for Celek and Jackson, my guess is that Jackson was projected at, what would you say, around 80? 90? That would be realistic. The remainder would be for Celek. 35-45 yards. That would be realistic. And probably, simulations indicated Jackson scoring once, perhaps twice, and Celek as a redzone threat. Fair? Well, Jackson had nothing, Celek had nothing, in terms of scoring. Celek did get his grabs in no-mans land, where it didn't really matter, but he was no redzone threat.

What if Jackson had not dropped a pass or two? What if McNabb had not thrown one or two bad passes his way during the game when he was wide open? What then? Might this projection have hit a little closer to home?

Nobody thought Celek would have that many yards. Didn't matter. Nobody thought Jackson would be a non-factor in the game. Again.


Done talking about THAT part.

NOW.

What about THIS from the projection:



The Cowboys pass rush has sacked the opposing QB at least 3 times during their hot 3 game streak. If they can harass McNabb again this week and limit the big down field pass completions the Cowboys should win.

Dallas sacked McNabb FOUR times in case you lost count. And I sure don't remember a lot of down field passes by the Eagles. Did you even watch the game? Are you discounting the above also?



Oh. Wait. What about this part?:

Tony Romo has thrown just 2 INTs in his past 3 games and there is a high 45 percent chance that he throws no INTs this week. However, if Romo throws 1 or more INTs the Eagles chances increase to 42 percent.


Well, there was an INT by Romo. Eagle odds of winning improved with that I guess. Also, there was only a 45% chance of NO Romo INT's. Odds said he WOULD throw an INT, and, wow, what do you know, he did. And oh, by the way, in case you still missed it, the projection above said the Eagles chances INCREASE all the way to 42%. It did NOT say they DECREASE from 48%. As you stated that I posted.



I'm still not finished. What about THIS?

If the Eagles can also hold Marion Barber and Felix Jones to under 4.5 yards per carry while also forcing at least 1 Romo INT then Philadelphia has a 57 percent chance of winning by an average score of PHI 25, DAL 22

Dallas
Total Rushing Plays 32
AVERAGE GAIN PER RUSHING PLAY 5.6


Barber, 14 carries, 91 yds (6.5 Avg)
Felix, 15 carries, 91 yds, 1 TD (6.1 Avg) (edit: corrected the spelling of Felix)


As the sound bit constantly played on Rome's radio show says, "NOW I'm done."

Seems pretty accurate to me. Sorry if you disagree.

Please try to get your facts straight before replying with crap like you did. Thanks. You totally misquoted what I posted.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Your picking on the wrong person. I was just stating that they expected them to get 125 yards and a TD and couldn't remember what it was exactly. Sorry, but I seemed to have struck a nerve without any intention to do so.

 

[Phoenix]

Your picking on the wrong person. I was just stating that they expected them to get 125 yards and a TD and couldn't remember what it was exactly. Sorry, but I seemed to have struck a nerve without any intention to do so.

I apologize then. Not trying to pick on anyone. Just after the waves of flamers to my AccuScore postings this season, yes, you struck a nerve I guess. They really are pretty good. Nobody's perfect of course.

And I don't remember a single other member here in my corner on AccuScore. Not that I live by them, bet by them (I don't bet), or anything else. As I said, I don't work for them, I don't own stock in their company (if they are even public)...I have absolutely NO affiliation with them. The ONLY time I see their projections are from BSPN->NFL->SCORES->Cowboys game for the week->Intel. That's it. And it's pretty limited. But they have been so right most of the season it has been amazing. I just wanted to post what they had to say because those guys get it right more times than not.

And the fact that I have stood alone in this, with the flamers attacking me this season for posting their projections, irks me.

As I said, nobody's perfect. But they darn near are from what I've seen this year. Better than anybody else's predictions that I have come across.

Sigh. I try to help, try to enlighten for those who missed the information, and what do I get for it? Flamed.

This board, sometimes, can be a very rough place to dare to post on.

I would however like to challenge any of the AccuScore post detractors over this past season to post their own preferences and who is better than these guys? Any takers?

 

[SaltwaterServr]

I apologize then. Not trying to pick on anyone. Just after the waves of flamers to my AccuScore postings this season, yes, you struck a nerve I guess. They really are pretty good. Nobody's perfect of course.

And I don't remember a single other member here in my corner on AccuScore. Not that I live by them, bet by them (I don't bet), or anything else. As I said, I don't work for them, I don't own stock in their company (if they are even public)...I have absolutely NO affiliation with them. The ONLY time I see their projections are from BSPN->NFL->SCORES->Cowboys game for the week->Intel. That's it. And it's pretty limited. But they have been so right most of the season it has been amazing. I just wanted to post what they had to say because those guys get it right more times than not.

And the fact that I have stood alone in this, with the flamers attacking me this season for posting their projections, irks me.

As I said, nobody's perfect. But they darn near are from what I've seen this year. Better than anybody else's predictions that I have come across.

Sigh. I try to help, try to enlighten for those who missed the information, and what do I get for it? Flamed.

This board, sometimes, can be a very rough place to dare to post on.

I would however like to challenge any of the AccuScore post detractors over this past season to post their own preferences and who is better than these guys? Any takers?

More than likely no takers. I read AccuScore like I read Bob Sturm, BloggingTheBoys.com, DMN blogs, some of the limited ESPN stuff that gets posted here, and a few other sites for more information on everything Cowboys related.

Accuscore just provides another way to look at the match-ups. Some folks really get on that because it's something concrete to disparage rather than someone else's opinion. At least that's why I think AccuScore threads will get roasted.

Nobody will go on record and say Jenkins will have 3 PBU's, Scandrick will have an interception (he will this game), Witten will convert 4 of the 5 third down attempts thrown to him, etc, etc. Because AccuScore does those who love to deal in absolutes and can yell "I TOLD YOU SO!" when someone is wrong will hop all over the predicted outcomes.

I get a kick out of reading them to be perfectly honest.

 

[Phoenix]

More than likely no takers. I read AccuScore like I read Bob Sturm, BloggingTheBoys.com, DMN blogs, some of the limited ESPN stuff that gets posted here, and a few other sites for more information on everything Cowboys related.

Accuscore just provides another way to look at the match-ups. Some folks really get on that because it's something concrete to disparage rather than someone else's opinion. At least that's why I think AccuScore threads will get roasted.

Nobody will go on record and say Jenkins will have 3 PBU's, Scandrick will have an interception (he will this game), Witten will convert 4 of the 5 third down attempts thrown to him, etc, etc. Because AccuScore does those who love to deal in absolutes and can yell "I TOLD YOU SO!" when someone is wrong will hop all over the predicted outcomes.

I get a kick out of reading them to be perfectly honest.

Well, they run over 10,000 simulations for every game of the year, using current stats, players, trends, tendencies, etc. I don't know if they factor in weather conditions or not. But the sheer number of simulations that they run for each game tend to be telling. Yes, anything can happen in a game, of course, in real life. Injuries, momentum, unexpected turnovers, mental mistakes, you name it. All are x-factors. That is why it is impossible to predict exact stats for a game, or even an outcome of the game. As I said, that's Why They Play The Game.

But, given all other available predictive type of resources out there, I trust AccuScore the most. They have been better than any other that I have seen. The sheer volume of simulations is why. In those simulations, guess what? You get injuries, momentum (of a sort I guess), unexpected turnovers, mental mistakes and penalties, you name it. Most if not all of the x-factors. In 10,000+ simulations of the game using current players, current stats, current trends and tendencies, etc. But I'm repeating myself.

I'll go by their word any day of the week. And twice on Sundays. (Saturday this week.) And THEY say the Cowboys will win. (I posted that in another thread.) I agree.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Well, they run over 10,000 simulations for every game of the year, using current stats, players, trends, tendencies, etc. I don't know if they factor in weather conditions or not. But the sheer number of simulations that they run for each game tend to be telling. Yes, anything can happen in a game, of course, in real life. Injuries, momentum, unexpected turnovers, mental mistakes, you name it. All are x-factors. That is why it is impossible to predict exact stats for a game, or even an outcome of the game. As I said, that's Why They Play The Game.

But, given all other available predictive type of resources out there, I trust AccuScore the most. They have been better than any other that I have seen. The sheer volume of simulations is why. In those simulations, guess what? You get injuries, momentum (of a sort I guess), unexpected turnovers, mental mistakes and penalties, you name it. Most if not all of the x-factors. In 10,000+ simulations of the game using current players, current stats, current trends and tendencies, etc. But I'm repeating myself.

I'll go by their word any day of the week. And twice on Sundays. (Saturday this week.) And THEY say the Cowboys will win. (I posted that in another thread.) I agree.

Yep. Their sample size is pretty conclusive. You can model human behavior to a point, and then you get diminishing returns which is where you get those injuries, idiotic mistakes by any player on the field, etc. Hell, this Great Recession is living proof of that for certain.