Cbz40
The Grand Poobah
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BASELINE SIMULATION
In preliminary simulations, the Patriots have a 53 percent chance of winning a high scoring game in Dallas. Early MVP candidates Tom Brady and Tony Romo are both forecasted for at least 275 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Not surprisingly, Randy Mossand Terrell Owens are leading their teams in receptions. Moss has the edge averaging 6.5 receptions for 100 yards vs. Owens' 5.8 receptions and 95 yards. Moss also the edge in touchdown production averaging over one per simulation.
Dallas has the edge in total rushing yards with Barber, Jones and Tony Romo scrambling for 110 yards vs. 100 for the Patriots. Laurence Maroney has missed his last two weeks but is expected to share the ball with his more than capable backup, Sammy Morris. Neither team is averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry.
The reason why New England is winning over 50 percent of simulations is because Tom Brady is passing for more touchdowns against the Cowboys secondary and Tony Romo is throwing 33 percent more interceptions than Brady in AccuScore simulations. Romo was able to bounce back from six turnovers vs. Buffalo but if Dallas has two or more turnovers it will cost them vs. New England. The Cowboys are averaging 2.15 per simulation.
PATRIOTS SHOULD PASS, PASS, PASS
Last season the Patriots passed virtually every down to pull of a second half upset against Wade Phillips' San Diego Charger defense in the playoffs. Earlier this season, the Patriots passed every down to build a double digit lead over the Chargers.
Tom Brady's unbelievable accuracy combined with the plethora of receiving weapons and the Cowboys track record of struggling defending the pass indicate that he Patriots would be wise to employ this pass heavy strategy in attacking the Cowboys.
In simulations, AccuScore called for passing plays in all usual passing situations and in 70 percent of plays that typically are running downs like 2nd and two yards to go at mid-field. If the Patriots had a 14 point lead or greater in a simulation in the 2nd half, the play-calling reverted to the Patriots normal game management strategy.
When the Patriots rely heavily on the passing game, they won 61 percent of simulations, an 8 percentage point improvement.
COWBOYS SHOULD STICK WITH THE GAME PLAN
However, the Cowboys should stick with their balanced attack. When AccuScore simulated Dallas employing a pass heavy offense, the Cowboys won 49 percent of simulations, which is a slight, and insignificant, improvement. After the Buffalo game, it does seem that Romo can be interception prone. When you have a pair of quality running backs, you are better off sticking with a balanced offensive attack. Fantasy owners of Tony Romo and Terrell Owens may like a pass-heavy strategy but those are the only people who would benefit.
This weeks prop bets:
ROMO'S IMPACT CANNOT BE UNDERESTIMATED
Last year AccuScore criticized Bill Parcells for not starting Tony Romo sooner. Apparently it was evident in both training camp and practice that Romo was not only infinitely more mobile in and out of the pocket, but is also a more accurate passer than last year's Week 1 starter, Drew Bledsoe.
Out of curiosity, AccuScore wanted to see how much better Dallas is with Romo and in simulations; Drew Bledsoe was re-inserted as starting quarterback for the Cowboys. Bledsoe put up OK passing stats, completing 60 percent of his passes in AccuScore simulations, 1.6 touchdowns and 1.4 interceptions but his lack of mobility resulted in four sacks per simulation on average whereas Romo was sacked only 1.9 times. With Bledsoe starting, the Cowboys won just 38 percent of simulations vs. the Patriots.
Romo's accuracy downfield, ability to limit interceptions, and his mobility translates to an improvement of a whopping 10 percentage points! Over the course of a single season, that is nearly two more wins per year.
WHO IS MORE VALUABLE? MOSS OR OWENS?
Both star receivers have delivered what their teams wanted from them and more. We altered the AccuScore simulation to play the game without Randy Moss and then play another game without Terrell Owens. Without Moss, New England's Tom Brady averages 1.9 passing touchdowns which is a 20 percent drop from his average with Moss. The Patriots 3rd Down Conversion declines by three percent per simulation and their chances of winning this game go from 53 percent with Moss to 41 percent without Moss. This 12 percent point drop, if it were extrapolated over 16 games, results in a two game difference in the win column.
Without Terrell Owens, Tony Romo's touchdown production declines by 25 percent but with a strong running game, the Cowboys overall chances of winning only declines from 48 percent to 41 percent. This seven percentage point difference is very big resulting in 1 fewer win per simulated season, but not as big of an impact as the Patriots without Randy Moss.
It seems that Randy Moss, if he can stay healthy, is the bigger star receiver. Of course, this is based on 10,000 simulations. Anything can happen on any given Sunday.
ADALIUS THOMAS GIVES THE PATRIOTS THE EDGE
Randy Moss is getting most of the headlines in New England, and justifiably so, but one cannot underestimate the value of adding linebacker Adalius Thomas to the Patriots defense. Thomas is perhaps the only player in the league who could end the season 2nd or 3rd on his team in interceptions and pass defenses, record double digit sacks, lead the team in tackles and score two or more touchdowns on interceptions and fumble recoveries.
His unique combination of size, strength and speed allowed him to play defensive end, outside linebacker, middle linebacker, safety, and even line up as a cornerback covering Chad Johnson while playing for the Ravens. Thomas is day-to-day after being injured in Week 5. Without him, the edge could go back to Dallas.
The Cowboys have a ton of weapons with tremendous size and speed. Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Jason Witten, Marion Barber out of the backfield, and third receiver Sam Hurd create mismatch problems with most defenses. Adalius Thomas' versatility is especially important against the Cowboys.
A key problem for the Patriots vs. the Colts in the AFC Championship game was a lack of linebacker speed and endurance. Without Thomas, they would experience similar problems vs. Dallas. In simulations, AccuScore played the game with the Patriots excellent 2006 defense, before Adalius Thomas, and even though that unit was very good, the Cowboys won slightly over 50 percent of these simulations. Thomas is a key player in taking the Patriots from slight underdog to slight favorite.
BOTH TEAMS SHOULD GO FOR IT
ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback column by Gregg Easterbrook has promoted a strategy of going for it on 4th down far more than most teams typically do. There are specific parameters described by Easterbrook. Earlier in the year, AccuScore demonstrated that this aggressive play calling strategy does work...for teams with potent offenses.
Given how powerful both the Patriots and Cowboys offenses are, AccuScore sought to see if the Easterbrook strategy would work for these teams in this match-up and if it did work, what was the over-all impact?
The Patriots employed the strategy and ended up winning 58 percent of simulations which was an increase of six percent above their baseline. The Cowboys won 51 percent of AccuScore simulations, a net gain of three percent from their baseline. So it looks like both teams should be aggressive on fourth down.
WHAT IF THE GAME WERE IN FOXBOROUGH OR A SUPERBOWL MATCH-UP?
The Patriots are a slight road favorite in simulations but if this game were in Foxborough it would not be so close. The Patriots win 68 percent of simulated games between the Cowboys and the Patriots at home.
If these teams do meet in the Super Bowl, this preliminary analysis would make the Patriots a 60 percent favorite, winning by 3.5 points per simulation.
JASON WITTEN IMPACT
AccuScore's analysis of reception efficiency, defined as percent of catchable passes that are actually caught, indicate Jason Witten is a very sure-handed receiver with an efficiency of 77 percent; well above the league average of 65 percent. By now everyone knows Terrell Owens has had problems with dropping balls. His efficiency is just 62 percent which is substantially lower than Witten and the other starting receiver, Patrick Crayton who has a 76 percent. However, Owens touchdown production often makes up for his dropped balls. Since 2006, 15 percent of Owens' catches result in a touchdown, which significantly outshines Witten's five percent.
While Owens absence resulted in a seven percent drop in winning percentage for Dallas, AccuScore investigated how much Jason Witten's absence would hurt the Cowboys. In simulations, we removed Witten, started backup tight end Anthony Fasano and found that Tony Romo's completion percentage declined by three percentage points per simulation according to AccuScore data. The Cowboys third down conversion success rate declined by three percentage points and their overall chances of winning declined from 48 percent to 44 percent. Jason Witten is extremely valuable to the Cowboys' success, but not as valuable as Terrell Owens. Part of this discrepancy is due to the ability of backup tight end Anthony Fasano whereas Dallas has no comparable wide receiver to Terrell Owens' size and strength.
ASANTE SAMUEL
Asante Samuel has played an enormous role for the Patriots covering the opposing team's top wide receiver and leading the team in interceptions; snagging 13 errant passes in his last 20 regular season games. Unlike some cornerbacks who might get a lot of interceptions because the opposing offenses throw a lot of balls his way, Samuel gets his interceptions while also being a good cover corner. The overall quality of the Patriots defense the past few seasons validates that Samuel is not a corner getting 10 interceptions while also getting burned for 20 touchdowns.
With Samuel out, Randall Gay, who has only played 13 games in the past 3 seasons, and rookie Brandon Meriweather would see more time with Ellis Hobbs, presumably moving over to take on Terrell Owens. With Owens and the second receiver, Patrick Crayton, playing even larger roles, these big play receivers help Tony Romo pass for 10 percent more touchdowns while cutting down interceptions by 15 percent. It's a good thing for the Patriots that Samuel did not hold out this season. AccuScore found the Cowboys chances of winning go from 48 percent to 53 percent without Samuels in the lineup.
http://accuscore.com/patriots-at-cowboys/
In preliminary simulations, the Patriots have a 53 percent chance of winning a high scoring game in Dallas. Early MVP candidates Tom Brady and Tony Romo are both forecasted for at least 275 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Not surprisingly, Randy Mossand Terrell Owens are leading their teams in receptions. Moss has the edge averaging 6.5 receptions for 100 yards vs. Owens' 5.8 receptions and 95 yards. Moss also the edge in touchdown production averaging over one per simulation.
Dallas has the edge in total rushing yards with Barber, Jones and Tony Romo scrambling for 110 yards vs. 100 for the Patriots. Laurence Maroney has missed his last two weeks but is expected to share the ball with his more than capable backup, Sammy Morris. Neither team is averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry.
The reason why New England is winning over 50 percent of simulations is because Tom Brady is passing for more touchdowns against the Cowboys secondary and Tony Romo is throwing 33 percent more interceptions than Brady in AccuScore simulations. Romo was able to bounce back from six turnovers vs. Buffalo but if Dallas has two or more turnovers it will cost them vs. New England. The Cowboys are averaging 2.15 per simulation.
Last season the Patriots passed virtually every down to pull of a second half upset against Wade Phillips' San Diego Charger defense in the playoffs. Earlier this season, the Patriots passed every down to build a double digit lead over the Chargers.
Tom Brady's unbelievable accuracy combined with the plethora of receiving weapons and the Cowboys track record of struggling defending the pass indicate that he Patriots would be wise to employ this pass heavy strategy in attacking the Cowboys.
In simulations, AccuScore called for passing plays in all usual passing situations and in 70 percent of plays that typically are running downs like 2nd and two yards to go at mid-field. If the Patriots had a 14 point lead or greater in a simulation in the 2nd half, the play-calling reverted to the Patriots normal game management strategy.
When the Patriots rely heavily on the passing game, they won 61 percent of simulations, an 8 percentage point improvement.
However, the Cowboys should stick with their balanced attack. When AccuScore simulated Dallas employing a pass heavy offense, the Cowboys won 49 percent of simulations, which is a slight, and insignificant, improvement. After the Buffalo game, it does seem that Romo can be interception prone. When you have a pair of quality running backs, you are better off sticking with a balanced offensive attack. Fantasy owners of Tony Romo and Terrell Owens may like a pass-heavy strategy but those are the only people who would benefit.
This weeks prop bets:
- Most Receiving Yards: R. Moss | T. Owens
- Most Touchdowns: R. Moss | T. Owens
- Most Passing Yards: T. Brady | T. Romo
- Most Turnovers: New England | Dallas
- Longest Field Goal: New England | Dallas
Last year AccuScore criticized Bill Parcells for not starting Tony Romo sooner. Apparently it was evident in both training camp and practice that Romo was not only infinitely more mobile in and out of the pocket, but is also a more accurate passer than last year's Week 1 starter, Drew Bledsoe.
Out of curiosity, AccuScore wanted to see how much better Dallas is with Romo and in simulations; Drew Bledsoe was re-inserted as starting quarterback for the Cowboys. Bledsoe put up OK passing stats, completing 60 percent of his passes in AccuScore simulations, 1.6 touchdowns and 1.4 interceptions but his lack of mobility resulted in four sacks per simulation on average whereas Romo was sacked only 1.9 times. With Bledsoe starting, the Cowboys won just 38 percent of simulations vs. the Patriots.
Romo's accuracy downfield, ability to limit interceptions, and his mobility translates to an improvement of a whopping 10 percentage points! Over the course of a single season, that is nearly two more wins per year.
Both star receivers have delivered what their teams wanted from them and more. We altered the AccuScore simulation to play the game without Randy Moss and then play another game without Terrell Owens. Without Moss, New England's Tom Brady averages 1.9 passing touchdowns which is a 20 percent drop from his average with Moss. The Patriots 3rd Down Conversion declines by three percent per simulation and their chances of winning this game go from 53 percent with Moss to 41 percent without Moss. This 12 percent point drop, if it were extrapolated over 16 games, results in a two game difference in the win column.
Without Terrell Owens, Tony Romo's touchdown production declines by 25 percent but with a strong running game, the Cowboys overall chances of winning only declines from 48 percent to 41 percent. This seven percentage point difference is very big resulting in 1 fewer win per simulated season, but not as big of an impact as the Patriots without Randy Moss.
It seems that Randy Moss, if he can stay healthy, is the bigger star receiver. Of course, this is based on 10,000 simulations. Anything can happen on any given Sunday.
Randy Moss is getting most of the headlines in New England, and justifiably so, but one cannot underestimate the value of adding linebacker Adalius Thomas to the Patriots defense. Thomas is perhaps the only player in the league who could end the season 2nd or 3rd on his team in interceptions and pass defenses, record double digit sacks, lead the team in tackles and score two or more touchdowns on interceptions and fumble recoveries.
His unique combination of size, strength and speed allowed him to play defensive end, outside linebacker, middle linebacker, safety, and even line up as a cornerback covering Chad Johnson while playing for the Ravens. Thomas is day-to-day after being injured in Week 5. Without him, the edge could go back to Dallas.
The Cowboys have a ton of weapons with tremendous size and speed. Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Jason Witten, Marion Barber out of the backfield, and third receiver Sam Hurd create mismatch problems with most defenses. Adalius Thomas' versatility is especially important against the Cowboys.
A key problem for the Patriots vs. the Colts in the AFC Championship game was a lack of linebacker speed and endurance. Without Thomas, they would experience similar problems vs. Dallas. In simulations, AccuScore played the game with the Patriots excellent 2006 defense, before Adalius Thomas, and even though that unit was very good, the Cowboys won slightly over 50 percent of these simulations. Thomas is a key player in taking the Patriots from slight underdog to slight favorite.
ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback column by Gregg Easterbrook has promoted a strategy of going for it on 4th down far more than most teams typically do. There are specific parameters described by Easterbrook. Earlier in the year, AccuScore demonstrated that this aggressive play calling strategy does work...for teams with potent offenses.
Given how powerful both the Patriots and Cowboys offenses are, AccuScore sought to see if the Easterbrook strategy would work for these teams in this match-up and if it did work, what was the over-all impact?
The Patriots employed the strategy and ended up winning 58 percent of simulations which was an increase of six percent above their baseline. The Cowboys won 51 percent of AccuScore simulations, a net gain of three percent from their baseline. So it looks like both teams should be aggressive on fourth down.
The Patriots are a slight road favorite in simulations but if this game were in Foxborough it would not be so close. The Patriots win 68 percent of simulated games between the Cowboys and the Patriots at home.
If these teams do meet in the Super Bowl, this preliminary analysis would make the Patriots a 60 percent favorite, winning by 3.5 points per simulation.
AccuScore's analysis of reception efficiency, defined as percent of catchable passes that are actually caught, indicate Jason Witten is a very sure-handed receiver with an efficiency of 77 percent; well above the league average of 65 percent. By now everyone knows Terrell Owens has had problems with dropping balls. His efficiency is just 62 percent which is substantially lower than Witten and the other starting receiver, Patrick Crayton who has a 76 percent. However, Owens touchdown production often makes up for his dropped balls. Since 2006, 15 percent of Owens' catches result in a touchdown, which significantly outshines Witten's five percent.
While Owens absence resulted in a seven percent drop in winning percentage for Dallas, AccuScore investigated how much Jason Witten's absence would hurt the Cowboys. In simulations, we removed Witten, started backup tight end Anthony Fasano and found that Tony Romo's completion percentage declined by three percentage points per simulation according to AccuScore data. The Cowboys third down conversion success rate declined by three percentage points and their overall chances of winning declined from 48 percent to 44 percent. Jason Witten is extremely valuable to the Cowboys' success, but not as valuable as Terrell Owens. Part of this discrepancy is due to the ability of backup tight end Anthony Fasano whereas Dallas has no comparable wide receiver to Terrell Owens' size and strength.
Asante Samuel has played an enormous role for the Patriots covering the opposing team's top wide receiver and leading the team in interceptions; snagging 13 errant passes in his last 20 regular season games. Unlike some cornerbacks who might get a lot of interceptions because the opposing offenses throw a lot of balls his way, Samuel gets his interceptions while also being a good cover corner. The overall quality of the Patriots defense the past few seasons validates that Samuel is not a corner getting 10 interceptions while also getting burned for 20 touchdowns.
With Samuel out, Randall Gay, who has only played 13 games in the past 3 seasons, and rookie Brandon Meriweather would see more time with Ellis Hobbs, presumably moving over to take on Terrell Owens. With Owens and the second receiver, Patrick Crayton, playing even larger roles, these big play receivers help Tony Romo pass for 10 percent more touchdowns while cutting down interceptions by 15 percent. It's a good thing for the Patriots that Samuel did not hold out this season. AccuScore found the Cowboys chances of winning go from 48 percent to 53 percent without Samuels in the lineup.
http://accuscore.com/patriots-at-cowboys/
