Advanced Metrics Following Week 4

[Nation]

Football Outsiders Rankings of the Cowboys through Week 4

Note: These only have a 40-percent adjustment for opponents played but have a full adjustment for average percentage of fumbles recovered. They also have scoring and scenario adjustments, so an 80 yard touchdown drive is a lot more impressive to their system than a drive that starts in the opponent's red zone following a turnover.

Offensive Ranking:
Overall 10th (-14.9% VOA)
Passing Offense 8th (24.0% VOA)
Rushing Offense 19th (-10.5% VOA)

Defensive Ranking:
Overall 20th (4.3% VOA)
Passing Defense 20th (14.2% VOA)
Rushing Defense 9th (-18.3% VOA)

Special Teams: 16th, 0.6% ST VOA - No units really above league average and poor punting

Playoff Odds: 46.5% (43.8% Division, 2.8% Wild Card). Philly has a 31.8% chance of the division, Washington a 21.2%, and the Giants a 3.2% chance.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Football Outsiders Rankings of the Cowboys through Week 4

Offensive Ranking:
Overall 10th (3% VOA)

Slight correction.

 

[Future]

Middle of the pack...sounds about right considering we are .500 right now.

 

[Hoofbite]

I'm not a stats guy. VOA, someone help me out with it please.

 

[Staubacher]

Passing offense least of our problems but that's what most threads are whining about here. Telling

 

[ScipioCowboy]

10 and 20 average out to 15. There are 32 teams in the league. That spells about 8-8.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Personally, I think the Cowboys deserve an award for how long they've been able to maintain such perfectly balanced mediocrity without tipping in either direction.

 

[kramskoi]

Football Outsiders Rankings of the Cowboys through Week 4

Note: These only have a 40-percent adjustment for opponents played but have a full adjustment for average percentage of fumbles recovered. They also have scoring and scenario adjustments, so an 80 yard touchdown drive is a lot more impressive to their system than a drive that starts in the opponent's red zone following a turnover.

Offensive Ranking:
Overall 10th (-14.9% VOA)
Passing Offense 8th (24.0% VOA)
Rushing Offense 19th (-10.5% VOA)

Defensive Ranking:
Overall 20th (4.3% VOA)
Passing Defense 20th (14.2% VOA)
Rushing Defense 9th (-18.3% VOA)

Special Teams: 16th, 0.6% ST VOA - No units really above league average and poor punting

Playoff Odds: 46.5% (43.8% Division, 2.8% Wild Card). Philly has a 31.8% chance of the division, Washington a 21.2%, and the Giants a 3.2% chance.

More notable is the Total and Offensive DVOA of the 2007 Cowboys:

Total DVOA after 4 weeks : 51.1%
Offense DVOA after 4 weeks: 43.5% vs. [NE 46.6%]

2013 Cowboys:

Total DVOA after 4 weeks: 2.3%
Offensive DVOA after 4 weeks: 6%

In a word, the Garrett offense ain't getting it done...and it's not even close! Compared to the current edition, the Cowboys of '07 would drub this year's version pretty good.

 

[SacramentoKing]

Personally, I think the Cowboys deserve an award for how long they've been able to maintain such perfectly balanced mediocrity without tipping in either direction.

We seriously need a couple REAL rebuilding seasons

 

[Nation]

I'm not a stats guy. VOA, someone help me out with it please.

It's an attempt to measure teams against average competition (Value Over Average) and eliminating luck from the equation.

A team that is 4-0 and has won each game by 10+ points is better than a team that is 4-0 and won each game by less than one score.

A 11-5 team that played 10 teams with winning records is better than a 12-4 team that has played 4 teams with winning records.

Fumble recovery is purely luck and over time will average out to 50%

Opposing kickers missing a field goal (as opposed to a block) doesn't have anything to do with you being a successful team.

Etc Etc.

Like anything, it has its flaws but it is interesting.