Advantages of a 4 WR set

[waldoputty]

here is a simple question.

if zeke is in space against a db who is 5 yards away, what chance do you give zeke for winning the matchup?
50-50 is a reasonable assumption for what could be a big play?
and even if the db tackles zeke, what chance do you give zeke for dragging the db for at least 2 yards?
50-50 is a conservative assmption for a decent play?
and even if stopped for a short gain, what chance do you give for the db to be dinged after impact?
10% is a reasonable assumption for taking out a 'starter' in the dime?

if you add up those odds, that is pretty damn good.
zeke would gain at least good yardage and/or ding/take out one of the opponent's dbs the great majority of the time.
that is 50%+25%+25% * 10% (for good yardage + injury) + 25% * 10% (for poor yardage + injury)
we get a positive play 80% of the time - based on these reasonable/conservative assumptions.

if this is correct, should we not make 4 wr formation the base formation?
that forces the defense to go at least nickel if not dime.
dime would generally mean 1 lb at the max.
when zeke runs wide, the db's would be primarily be tasked to stop the run
and they have to stop zeke in space going full-speed.

to keep the defense honest, have austin and thompson with the deep speed as 2 of the 4 wr
hurns and gallup could then be the other 2 wrs.
thompson, hurns and gallup are both at least the same size as dbs so they should block reasonably well.

austin and thompson are both return speed guys so they could both run the jet sweep
in fact, we could have austin and thompson take turns running jet sweep action on most plays to give zeke even more opportunities.

yes, i think we should make the 4wr spread offense the base offense.
when zeke runs up the middle, there would likely be at most 6 in the box.
of course, dak would play-action the hell out of this if zeke becomes a big problem.

 

[CPanther95]

I can't imagine a team looking to be a rushing team - and built for it - using a 4 WR set as their base offense.

BTW, your math is off. You can't have a positive play 80% of the time if Zeke loses the match-up with the DB half the time - and then only gets a decent gain half the times he wins the match-up.
That would only be a "decent play" 1 out of every 4 plays.

 

[waldoputty]

I can't imagine a team looking to be a rushing team - and built for it - using a 4 WR set as their base offense.

the math is correct.
if zeke loses the matchup, that means the defender tackles him.
the 2nd and 3rd questions are what happens if the defender tackles for him.
does he dragged the db for a couple yards?
does the db get injured tackling zeke at full speed?

well, please answer these simple questions:
if zeke is in space against a db who is 5 yards away, what chance do you give zeke for winning the matchup?
and even if the db tackles zeke, what chance do you give zeke for dragging the db for at least 2 yards?
and even if stopped for a short gain, what chance do you give for the db to be dinged after impact?
once you have, then do the math and see if your estimate is similar.

 

[zerofill]

The problem is like CPanther said... if you are going to be a run first team, you aren't doing 4WR sets very often...

Sure Zeke, can beat a DB a lot of times after the catch, or put a beat down on him, or drag them... Probably won't be doing it from a 4 WR set though.

 

[waldoputty]

The problem is like CPanther said... if you are going to be a run first team, you aren't doing 4WR sets very often...

Sure Zeke, can beat a DB a lot of times after the catch, or put a beat down on him, or drag them... Probably won't be doing it from a 4 WR set though.

well most teams throw out of a 4wr set.
however our advantage is our ol and zeke.
the 4wr set forces the defense into dime (6 dbs)
the 4wr set also forces the defense to put at least 4 dbs wide to cover the 4 wrs.
and at least 1 safety deep most of the time unless they are insane.

so zeke essentially has 1 db to beat most of the time if he runs wide.

now if he runs up the middle, then he would really enjoy the strength of the ol.

you add jet sweep action from either side (line austin and thompson on opposite sides taking turns running jet sweep), then you add even more uncertainty for the defense.

alternatively, if rico pans out and is lineup wide, he could be an interesting jet sweep blocker for zeke at 280lbs running full speed.
he could end up breaking a db.
or imagine if he crashes into a DE, particularly smaller RDEs, from the side to free up ol to block up the field.

 

[CPanther95]

This is the kind of discussion you have when you have a great corps of WRs, not when you have a great RB.

The way the Cowboys are built, defenses will be optimized to stop Elliott - regardless of the formation. If their safeties and LBs can cover your #3 and #4 receivers, I don't think many teams will have to put themselves in a position where a DB will be alone playing the run very often.

 

[waldoputty]

I can't imagine a team looking to be a rushing team - and built for it - using a 4 WR set as their base offense.

BTW, your math is off. You can't have a positive play 80% of the time if Zeke loses the match-up with the DB half the time - and then only gets a decent gain half the times he wins the match-up.
That would only be a "decent play" 1 out of every 4 plays.

i will break down the math:

50% zeke beats the defender - 50% success for a possible big play

50% defender tackles zeke
-- 50% zeke drags defender for at least 2 more yards - 50% * 50% = 25% success for a decent play

10% defender gets injuried when he tackles zeke
-- 50% * 10% = 5% for defender injured

50% + 25% + 5% = 80%

 

[thunderpimp91]

The problem is like CPanther said... if you are going to be a run first team, you aren't doing 4WR sets very often...

Sure Zeke, can beat a DB a lot of times after the catch, or put a beat down on him, or drag them... Probably won't be doing it from a 4 WR set though.

I disagree with that completely. I've never understood stacking the line with big guys, and just playing power football. When you have a threat like Zeke why not spread the defense out, and get their LBs off the field?

This gives Zeke the ability to run in space. It give your oline more 1v1 battles which in theory favors the talent we have on the oline. It also simplifies what defense can do, which gives Dak easier reads.

I'd love to see 4 WRs on the field, or at least a TE in the slot more often.

 

[waldoputty]

This is the kind of discussion you have when you have a great corps of WRs, not when you have a great RB.

The way the Cowboys are built, defenses will be optimized to stop Elliott - regardless of the formation. If their safeties and LBs can cover your #3 and #4 receivers, I don't think many teams will have to put themselves in a position where a DB will be alone playing the run very often.

our wrs are not #1 types but reasonable #2 and #3 types.
that is plenty good enough because they need to be defended.
and the defenders are pull wide to cover the wrs.
and the wrs are good size so they are decent blockers.
if you put a lb on a wr, you are going to lose badly 90% of the time.

no, no team would want to be in a position where a db alone would be playing the run often.
but that is why the 4wr set makes sense for the cowboys' ol and zeke.
it forces the defense to play with 6 dbs and at least 5 of the dbs would be in space against zeke. and at least 1 lb or s would be in the box, so he would be in space also when zeke runs wide.
so zeke would have a db to beat most of the time when he runs wide.

 

[CPanther95]

i will break down the math:

50% zeke beats the defender - 50% success for a possible big play

50% defender tackles zeke
-- 50% zeke drags defender for at least 2 more yards - 50% * 50% = 25% success for a decent play

10% defender gets injuried when he tackles zeke
-- 50% * 10% = 5% for defender injured

50% + 25% + 5% = 80%

I read the original post incorrectly the first time. I thought you were talking about Zeke as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Meaning losing the match-up with the DB was an incomplete pass - then half of the completed catches were for decent yards.

 

[thunderpimp91]

i will break down the math:

50% zeke beats the defender - 50% success for a possible big play

50% defender tackles zeke
-- 50% zeke drags defender for at least 2 more yards - 50% * 50% = 25% success for a decent play

10% defender gets injuried when he tackles zeke
-- 50% * 10% = 5% for defender injured

50% + 25% + 5% = 80%

I'm not a fan of the math just because it makes a lot of assumptions. With that said though i completely agree with the concept. And to be honest if a DB is the one making the tackle Zeke already has positive yards before contact more the majority of the time.

 

[waldoputty]

I read the original post incorrectly the first time. I thought you were talking about Zeke as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Meaning losing the match-up with the DB was an incomplete pass - then half of the completed catches were for decent yards.

yea, i should have said zeke rushing.

 

[waldoputty]

I'm not a fan of the math just because it makes a lot of assumptions. With that said though i completely agree with the concept. And to be honest if a DB is the one making the tackle Zeke already has positive yards before contact more the majority of the time.

it also forces the defenders to think and make decisions - both good things.
add jet sweep action, even more things to defend and think about.

 

[zerofill]

yea, i should have said zeke rushing.

Was under the impression you meant he was a receiver as well lol.

 

[fairviewfarmer]

How about running a bunch of different formations? Run and pass from 4 WR sets, Run and pass from 2 TE sets, Run and pass from full house backfield sets.....just saying, give the opposing Defense something to worry about......jmo.

 

[John813]

Has Zeke ever injured a defensive player?

10% seems high lol.

 

[zerofill]

How about running a bunch of different formations? Run and pass from 4 WR sets, Run and pass from 2 TE sets, Run and pass from full house backfield sets.....just saying, give the opposing Defense something to worry about......jmo.

You are going to confuse JG...

 

[waldoputty]

How about running a bunch of different formations? Run and pass from 4 WR sets, Run and pass from 2 TE sets, Run and pass from full house backfield sets.....just saying, give the opposing Defense something to worry about......jmo.

well that makes sense because you dont want the defense to be able to focus in one thing in their preparation.
however the 4 wr set is such a huge advantage imo.
with our strongest assets, zeke, ol and dak running as well, it is really hard to defend against zeke running, jet sweep and fake, play action and dak sneaking.

i think we should be 4 wr sets most of the time.

 

[jterrell]

Yikes.............

Our there advantages to a 4 WR set? Sure. I'm a Mike Leach guy.

For this team is there any real advantage to a 4 WR set? NOOOOOO!!!!

This is a run and play-action based team because that's where the talent it. This OL And Zeke are the best weapons. Dak using his RPO ability to get 1st downs. His ability to limit turnovers by hitting open guys. This isn't the Saints or Pats offense.

4 WR sets means going to a Nickel or Dime. You don't have to play man in those sets you can play zone. You can blitz that extra DB off the edge to shut down the run. You give up ANY blocking for your QB except that 1 back. So Zeke then becomes a blocker only in the passing game.

That's just dumb football.

Put Dalton Shultz on the field and take the 4th WR off so Zeke can block then release or release right away.

If you only block 5 guys and the defense in anything pother than prevent mode doesn't make you pay that DC will be fired shortly thereafter.

 

[jterrell]

I disagree with that completely. I've never understood stacking the line with big guys, and just playing power football. When you have a threat like Zeke why not spread the defense out, and get their LBs off the field?

This gives Zeke the ability to run in space. It give your oline more 1v1 battles which in theory favors the talent we have on the oline. It also simplifies what defense can do, which gives Dak easier reads.

I'd love to see 4 WRs on the field, or at least a TE in the slot more often.

Because Zeke is STILL the teams best player the defense knows it.
They aren't going to just turn their back to Zeke and chase TWill down the field, ROFL.
This is not hard.

They know what you are good at so you simply be good enough that it doesn't matter.

We didn't run 4 WR for Emmitt Smith.
We didn't draft all these OL that high to give up in the trenches and be scared of power football.

We are the bullies, we aren't the scared ones who need tricks; at least when the OL is healthy. We were 4th in the NFL in scoring last year until Tyron went down.