waldoputty
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here is a simple question.
if zeke is in space against a db who is 5 yards away, what chance do you give zeke for winning the matchup?
50-50 is a reasonable assumption for what could be a big play?
and even if the db tackles zeke, what chance do you give zeke for dragging the db for at least 2 yards?
50-50 is a conservative assmption for a decent play?
and even if stopped for a short gain, what chance do you give for the db to be dinged after impact?
10% is a reasonable assumption for taking out a 'starter' in the dime?
if you add up those odds, that is pretty damn good.
zeke would gain at least good yardage and/or ding/take out one of the opponent's dbs the great majority of the time.
that is 50%+25%+25% * 10% (for good yardage + injury) + 25% * 10% (for poor yardage + injury)
we get a positive play 80% of the time - based on these reasonable/conservative assumptions.
if this is correct, should we not make 4 wr formation the base formation?
that forces the defense to go at least nickel if not dime.
dime would generally mean 1 lb at the max.
when zeke runs wide, the db's would be primarily be tasked to stop the run
and they have to stop zeke in space going full-speed.
to keep the defense honest, have austin and thompson with the deep speed as 2 of the 4 wr
hurns and gallup could then be the other 2 wrs.
thompson, hurns and gallup are both at least the same size as dbs so they should block reasonably well.
austin and thompson are both return speed guys so they could both run the jet sweep
in fact, we could have austin and thompson take turns running jet sweep action on most plays to give zeke even more opportunities.
yes, i think we should make the 4wr spread offense the base offense.
when zeke runs up the middle, there would likely be at most 6 in the box.
of course, dak would play-action the hell out of this if zeke becomes a big problem.
if zeke is in space against a db who is 5 yards away, what chance do you give zeke for winning the matchup?
50-50 is a reasonable assumption for what could be a big play?
and even if the db tackles zeke, what chance do you give zeke for dragging the db for at least 2 yards?
50-50 is a conservative assmption for a decent play?
and even if stopped for a short gain, what chance do you give for the db to be dinged after impact?
10% is a reasonable assumption for taking out a 'starter' in the dime?
if you add up those odds, that is pretty damn good.
zeke would gain at least good yardage and/or ding/take out one of the opponent's dbs the great majority of the time.
that is 50%+25%+25% * 10% (for good yardage + injury) + 25% * 10% (for poor yardage + injury)
we get a positive play 80% of the time - based on these reasonable/conservative assumptions.
if this is correct, should we not make 4 wr formation the base formation?
that forces the defense to go at least nickel if not dime.
dime would generally mean 1 lb at the max.
when zeke runs wide, the db's would be primarily be tasked to stop the run
and they have to stop zeke in space going full-speed.
to keep the defense honest, have austin and thompson with the deep speed as 2 of the 4 wr
hurns and gallup could then be the other 2 wrs.
thompson, hurns and gallup are both at least the same size as dbs so they should block reasonably well.
austin and thompson are both return speed guys so they could both run the jet sweep
in fact, we could have austin and thompson take turns running jet sweep action on most plays to give zeke even more opportunities.
yes, i think we should make the 4wr spread offense the base offense.
when zeke runs up the middle, there would likely be at most 6 in the box.
of course, dak would play-action the hell out of this if zeke becomes a big problem.