realtick
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I've been following the NFL Draft closely now for a little over 20 years. While I certainly don't claim to know it all, I do feel like I've gleamed a few things over the years.
Here's some thoughts I'd like to share:
I. For the most part, the Kipers, Mayocks, McShays, et cetera, of the draft world are reliably fallible. That is not to say they don't do their homework or don't have insightful info to share. What I am saying is if you follow college football closely and feel like you understand the game and what you're looking at, trust your instincts and your own analysis.
When I was much younger, I thought everything said by guys like Kiper was golden. As I got older and more familiarized with the skills, traits and abilities NFL teams and scouts often looked for, I started viewing players with my own perspective. Oftentimes, my analysis wouldn't jive with what the "experts" said. After "hitting" on a few prospects the experts weren't high on I came to a conclusion: the experts don't really know more than me and often times are full of crap.
II. Refrencing some arbritrary "draft grade" a publication or website gave a particular player is really meaningless. Saying "hey, player X is great value here because he was projected in this round by JoeBlowDraftGuru.com before the season," is really pointless. First, a projection is just that, it's not set in stone or has any relevance to how a player is viewed at by NFL teams.
Rule of thumb: Roughly half the players listed as first-rounders in draft publications in May won't even sniff the first-round come draft time in April.
III. If you're projecting draft day trades, know this: draft picks are at their highest value on draft day. Players are at their lowest value on draft day.
IV. It's just my opinion, but I think mock drafts are pointless. Typically, in most drafts one can predict the first 5-7 picks with some degree of accuracy. Mock drafts that go three rounds or deeper are simply silly. When I see fans post their mock drafts, they tend to be unrealistic, and rather just a list of players they've targeted for their team.
V. Watch the games! Don't base your opinion of a player off of YouTube highlights. Don't read a publication and parrot someone else's opinion. Speak on the players you know, if you're not familiar with a player, don't sweat it. It's impossible to watch every single Division I & II college player on both sides of the ball, no reasonable person would hold your feet to the fire for not knowing who Northeast Polytech State's starting right guard is.
Here's some thoughts I'd like to share:
I. For the most part, the Kipers, Mayocks, McShays, et cetera, of the draft world are reliably fallible. That is not to say they don't do their homework or don't have insightful info to share. What I am saying is if you follow college football closely and feel like you understand the game and what you're looking at, trust your instincts and your own analysis.
When I was much younger, I thought everything said by guys like Kiper was golden. As I got older and more familiarized with the skills, traits and abilities NFL teams and scouts often looked for, I started viewing players with my own perspective. Oftentimes, my analysis wouldn't jive with what the "experts" said. After "hitting" on a few prospects the experts weren't high on I came to a conclusion: the experts don't really know more than me and often times are full of crap.
II. Refrencing some arbritrary "draft grade" a publication or website gave a particular player is really meaningless. Saying "hey, player X is great value here because he was projected in this round by JoeBlowDraftGuru.com before the season," is really pointless. First, a projection is just that, it's not set in stone or has any relevance to how a player is viewed at by NFL teams.
Rule of thumb: Roughly half the players listed as first-rounders in draft publications in May won't even sniff the first-round come draft time in April.
III. If you're projecting draft day trades, know this: draft picks are at their highest value on draft day. Players are at their lowest value on draft day.
IV. It's just my opinion, but I think mock drafts are pointless. Typically, in most drafts one can predict the first 5-7 picks with some degree of accuracy. Mock drafts that go three rounds or deeper are simply silly. When I see fans post their mock drafts, they tend to be unrealistic, and rather just a list of players they've targeted for their team.
V. Watch the games! Don't base your opinion of a player off of YouTube highlights. Don't read a publication and parrot someone else's opinion. Speak on the players you know, if you're not familiar with a player, don't sweat it. It's impossible to watch every single Division I & II college player on both sides of the ball, no reasonable person would hold your feet to the fire for not knowing who Northeast Polytech State's starting right guard is.
