All Four Winners This Weekend Were Outplayed, but got the W

kskboys

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Sure over the course of the season but that's not the point t-ro is trying to make. He looking at total yards in the playoff games last weekend. Dak is the post child for why total yards can be a misleading stat.
Yes, in one game total yardage is an almost useless stat.
 

T-RO

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Let me expand on my previous post. If the game is remotely close. The team that regularly has the shorter field, i.e. the team with the take aways, can only get so many yards before they score. Just because a team regularly starts closer to their own end zone gets more yards, does not mean they outplayed their opponent. Actually it means quite the opposite.
Garbage yards on offense and defense is why total yards should not be used.
There are limitations with any single stat. I did very much think the Ravens and Texans were clearly better in their games (and I say that as a guy who likes Josh Allen). I didn't watch the Rams/Eagles game.
 

kskboys

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just that using yards only is MORE flawed
No, it's not.

And it depends on what is being examined. In one game, yes, all that matters is points. However, for an entire season, yards is more accurate than any one stat. And no, you should never use just one stat.

And for purposes of team evaluation, yards is very important. The team that gives up tons of yards but not so many points will see those yards turned into points in the playoffs. A good example of this is the 2017 season super bowl, where the Pats were 29th in yds allowed, but 5th in points allowed. That worked fine until the super bowl where Philly turned those yards allowed into points.

If you want to win a super bowl, allowing a pile of yards will keep you from it. Most super bowl winners are top 10ish in yards allowed. If you're in the bottom 5, that means you cannot stop the other team from driving up and down the field. That will always come back to haunt you.
 

kskboys

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Far from useless, especially if you can filter out garbage time yards.

Limited, yes.
Yes, but that goes w/ all stats. Look at the Texans vs the Chargers. Texans were not terrible, but they didn't play all that particularly well. The D gave them points and field position. No stat will show you that.
 

kskboys

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I don't see how you can have watched the Lions game in real time and felt that they outplayed the Commies. Were down for almost the entire game, much of it significantly. I don't any Commies fans felt like they were being outplayed or Lions fans felt they were doing some outplaying. And I say this being honest that there were several close games during the season that the Red Football Team stole--so I know how it feels to be outplayed but still commit theft.

Also, a lot of those Lions yards (I think 170, too lazy to research it) came when the Commies were up 2-3 scores and playing prevent defense in last half of the 4th Q. Basically bend, but don't break philosophy and let them have the middle of the field (to burn time).

Probably a more realistic turnover margin is +3. Since the very last interception by Chin was desperation time (and didn't affect the final score). And then the Commies gave up one possession on downs and the Lions gave up none. But yes, +3 is still very helpful to winning.

Anyhow the interceptions weren't total fluke tip drill things either. Just bad decisions or touch from the Lions passers. Along with the DBs making the catches.

Similarly with the fumble. I mean, sure the ball bounced our way. And agreed ~50% of fumbles go to each team and most people think it's luck...so look at total fumbles, not recovered/lost. But still Lions dorked up the execution of a play and Commies were penetrating the line. Felt like a play where you need to give some credit to one team over the other.
I'd say neither team outplayed the other. Both were great on O. Lions kept shooting themselves in the foot, that was the difference in the game. Take away the TOs, and that's a completely different ball game. Are TOs always the difference? Not so much during the regular season, but in the playoffs, that percentage skies. I'd guess as high as 80% of games.
 

FanofJerry

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Yall talking turnovers...

Yet no one is commenting on my posts that suggest a gunslinging QB with an ARM is good.

I think offenses that expose themselves to turnovers via ARM STRENGTH is bad.

If you have to adjust your offense in the PLAYOFFS .......AGAINST GOOD DEFENSES....what good is arm strength if the offense is adjusted to something an above average arm guy can do?

CAN ANYONE, BEULLER?....can anyone make it make sense to me?

Seems like having a guy with legs to extend plays in a rapidly increased EDGE performance defenses is better than risky arm strength. If I am not mistaken...sacks are going up. Buying time with legs is a decent trait to have.

The guy has to be super accurate. Mahomes and Allens dont grow on trees. Their arms help, NO DOUBT, but in playoffs its different.

GHOST ME
 

gtb1943

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No, it's not.

And it depends on what is being examined. In one game, yes, all that matters is points. However, for an entire season, yards is more accurate than any one stat. And no, you should never use just one stat.

And for purposes of team evaluation, yards is very important. The team that gives up tons of yards but not so many points will see those yards turned into points in the playoffs. A good example of this is the 2017 season super bowl, where the Pats were 29th in yds allowed, but 5th in points allowed. That worked fine until the super bowl where Philly turned those yards allowed into points.

If you want to win a super bowl, allowing a pile of yards will keep you from it. Most super bowl winners are top 10ish in yards allowed. If you're in the bottom 5, that means you cannot stop the other team from driving up and down the field. That will always come back to haunt you.
sorry dude but looking at history shows that the teams that led in least points allowed were all considered to have the better defenses
 

T-RO

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Buying time with legs is a decent trait to have.
Very true, certainly this season, and QB's athleticism is not just "buying time"

The four teams remaining in the playoffs? All are in top 10 of scrambling yardage.

Some Qbs in the top 10 of scrambling yards might surprise people. Pats were #2, Bucs 5th and Broncos 9th. And then of course Lamar is always near the top. Chargers were 11th, but would have been higher had Herbert not had two ankle injuries during the season.

Very curious to see the Bears in their second season under Ben Johnson. Caleb had a wobbly rookie year, but has a lot of potential...and wheels.
 

FanofJerry

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Very true, certainly this season, and QB's athleticism is not just "buying time"

The four teams remaining in the playoffs? All are in top 10 of scrambling yardage.

Some Qbs in the top 10 of scrambling yards might surprise people. Pats were #2, Bucs 5th and Broncos 9th. And then of course Lamar is always near the top. Chargers were 11th, but would have been higher had Herbert not had two ankle injuries during the season.

Very curious to see the Bears in their second season under Ben Johnson. Caleb had a wobbly rookie year, but has a lot of potential...and wheels.
are you side stepping the main concept of my post? or are you suggesting its "too complicated"

just say you are pro ARM...instead of dancing around it
 

kskboys

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sorry dude but looking at history shows that the teams that led in least points allowed were all considered to have the better defenses
Sorry dude, but the experts use yards allowed because it's a more accurate representation. Points allowed is more to analyze the team. The D does not allow all the points. The D allows all the yards. So, unless you're willing to break down the points scored, yards is far more accurate.
 

gtb1943

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Sorry dude, but the experts use yards allowed because it's a more accurate representation. Points allowed is more to analyze the team. The D does not allow all the points. The D allows all the yards. So, unless you're willing to break down the points scored, yards is far more accurate.
Funny how coaches seem to think you are all wet. BP, BB and others said points are what matters.

You go on and on despite examples again and again about teams and yards and results not interconnecting like the SCOREBOARD does. In the end the teams that allow the fewest points DO have the best defenses.
 

T-RO

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Yes they did lol…hell, they went 3-and-out on their first possession.
Thanks for the correction. They punted ***once***

Jack Fox (Lions punter) had one punt for 43 yards. I was looking at the wrong column for his results. My bad, I'm lazy and getting older, LOL.

Lions had one punt. You sure squared me up! Thanks and blessings.
 

Hadenough

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Commanders had 40 fewer yards than Lions
Bills had 143 fewer yards than Ravens
Eagles had 72 fewer yards than Rams
Chiefs had 124 fewer yards than Texans

Yet all won.

The first three got a huge boost with turnovers:
Commanders +5 in Turnovers
Bills +3 in Turnovers
Eagles +2 in Turnovers

The Chiefs, meanwhile had the refs to assist them... over and over again.
Not sure if you watch the Bills game but they literally punched the ball out that's how they won. And that's coaching so they were not out played.
 
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