Analytics and 4th and 7

[mmohican29]

I know many think the correct call would have been for the 4th and 7 play to be run vs opt-ing taking the FGA and converting.

For the record, I felt the correct call was made to take the points with 6 minutes and all 3 time outs based on game trends.

The Patriots had few 3 and Outs, but fewer sustained drives. Cutting the lead to 4 keeps you in the game with a FG by the Patriots and a final posession to tie.

We met that goal at about a stalemate. No points, but sacrificed about 3:45 of clock time and the Pat's successfully flipped field position.

However, Dallas used no timeouts and now had a chance to win the game outright with 2:35 and all 3 timeouts remaining.

The unseen Joker in this hand was the officiating which placed the Cowboys at long odds to get that score with the 2nd tripping penalty.

To me the decision for RHG was akin to hitting on 13 in Blackjack with dealer showing 6. It's a gut decision.

You probably shouldn't do it, but you are still likely to lose.

I hate Garrett, but all this analytics talk is dumb. It worked for Pederson in 16, and he's been a mess since.

Yes, Harbaugh uses them to an extreme level this season in Baltimore, but he has a supernova @ QB this year. Do you think he is as all-in if Flacco is under center?

Me either.

Hate Garrett and tar and feather the idiot. Despise him for 2nd and 3rd Downs, where plus yardage of any kind betters our odds on 4th.

But not for that actual 4th Down scenario. It played out for him to potentially be proven "genius".

Overall: Special Teams, Coaching and Officiating cost the game. Not the made FGA decision as a stand alone entity.

 

[Blackthorn]

Again, Garrett was correct in kicking the FG. The defense was strong and the Patriots were forced to punt. Any fan that thinks otherwise is absolutely crazy. What tripped up the team was the referee. It is difficult enough to play against mother-nature and the Patriots, throw in the refs and its dang near impossible. The talk about the Ravens using analytics is just maddening. The Cowboys use analytics during the week, on game day I don't think Will Hunting should be dictating the calls. The play-calling should be left up to Moore and Dak. Everyone can argue all they want, however the FG was the no brainier.

Fact:
Dallas had the ball with over 2 minutes.
The team had 3 TOs
The tripping penalties and the fake holding on Tyron were catastrophic in this type of game. Do analytics factor in the officiating?

 

[Flamma]

Again, Garrett was correct in kicking the FG. The defense was strong and the Patroits were forced to punt.

The Patriots could have been forced to punt after the Cowboys didn't convert the 4th and 7 too.

I will not agree with the stupid choice to kick the FG. It IMO was a jackass decision. Either way the Patriots could have been forced to punt, but at least going for it would give the Cowboys a chance they never had by kicking the FG. What don't people understand about this? What good came from kicking the FG? That Dallas might win instead of tie? Wouldn't it be better to have two chances to tie than 1 to win? I really can't understand the logic to thinking he made the right decision. Dallas also gave up field position with that decision. I live on the East coast. There is not a single Patriots fan I met that didn't love it when they kicked the FG. And for good reason.​

 

[cityochamps]

Again, Garrett was correct in kicking the FG. The defense was strong and the Patriots were forced to punt. Any fan that thinks otherwise is absolutely crazy. What tripped up the team was the referee. It is difficult enough to play against mother-nature and the Patriots, throw in the refs and its dang near impossible.

tripped up........nicely done

 

[mmohican29]

The Patriots could have been forced to punt after the Cowboys didn't convert the 4th and 7 too.

I will not agree with the stupid choice to kick the FG. It IMO was a jackass decision. Either way the Patriots could have been forced to punt, but at least going for it would give the Cowboys a chance they never had by kicking the FG. What don't people understand about this? What good came from kicking the FG? That Dallas might win instead of tie? Wouldn't it be better to have two chances to tie than 1 to win? I really can't understand the logic to thinking he made the right decision. Dallas also gave up field position with that decision. I live on the East coast. There is not a single Patriots fan I met that didn't love it when they kicked the FG. And for good reason.​

Lost in your argument is a clear path to victory vs tie. You now know the last posession is 4 down.

You also increase odds of TD simply because of another posession. A TD was more likely to come from distance based on game trend and Cowboys RZ season long deficiency.

 

[Mobinvans]

You had two chances to score a touchdown if you went for it

A field goal did NOTHING

Weak call to match a weak coach

 

[charron]

You had two chances to score a touchdown if you went for it

A field goal did NOTHING

Weak call to match a weak coach

So does turning the ball over on downs. Both require a late TD drive.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

You had two chances to score a touchdown if you went for it

A field goal did NOTHING

False. A FG gives you a chance to win if you get the ball back (which they did) and insulates you from being out of reach if the Patriots kick a FG on their next drive.

 

[Mobinvans]

False. A FG gives you a chance to win if you get the ball back (which they did) and insulates you from being out of reach if the Patriots kick a FG on their next drive.

Ya...how did that work out

 

[HungryLion]

The argument about analytics isn’t solely about that 4th and 7 play.

The issue most have is with the fact that Garret openly admitted to not using analytics at all, during the games, as a tool to aid in decision making.

So again, it’s not about that one decision in that one situation.

It’s an issue with the coaches overall strategy and use or lack thereof, of a certain type of data to help him make informed decisions.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Ya...how did that work out

Hindsight? Really?

 

[Mobinvans]

So does turning the ball over on downs. Both require a late TD drive.

Game on the line Dak cant get 7 yards huh....?

 

[mmohican29]

False. A FG gives you a chance to win if you get the ball back (which they did) and insulates you from being out of reach if the Patriots kick a FG on their next drive.

Exactly.

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

Say we go for the tie and we get it. You are now giving the Pat's the ball with a chance to win it with five minutes on the clock.

Would you rather have them with the last possession and a chance to win or have us with the last possession and a chance to win it. Because me personally I'd prefer that we have the last possession with a chance to win.

So I agree with kicking the field goal. It put the ball in our court.

 

[Mobinvans]

Bottom line is Garrett failed again

I wouldnt trust that guy to make decisions on my bathroom remodel much less football

 

[charron]

Game on the line Dak cant get 7 yards huh....?

apparently not. Did they get 7 on 2nd or 3rd? No they failed so you want to give up sure points to the most likely scenario of failing and giving them the ball there. Moore stopped doing what worked well in the 1st half. had they run the ball on 2nd or 3rd then 4th down would absolutely be in play. But as it was the only option is to throw another failed attempt against a good pass defense. dak had a chance to try an run, but didnt, he had 2 chances to throw for atleast a 1st but both fell incomplete. That was likely to happen on 4th, more than the improbability of making the needed yards.

 

[mmohican29]

Ya...how did that work out

We know how it turned out genius.

I only say that because you obviously had supreme insight to the fact that the ref was going to throw a fake *** flag with 2 minutes remaining and 1st and 10 at the Cowboy 42 and 3 TO's held for the final comeback attempt.

 

[charron]

As seen on this board Garretts decision to go for it or not will get killed regardless what he chooses unless it worked and even then people typically complain.

 

[Playmaker3128]

I won’t argue against the kick.

what I will argue now is kicking a 40 plus yard fg into the wind early in the game. It’s the same thing as kicking the 57 yarder vs the vikes.

Both absolute stupid decisions.

 

[HungryLion]

As seen on this board Garretts decision to go for it or not will get killed regardless what he chooses unless it worked and even then people typically complain.

That’s the criticism that 8+ years and no playoff success earns you.

The lack of “leash” that Garret has for poor results is a direct result of his lack of total results thus far.