Analyzing Dallas' draft needs

gimmesix

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Since we're in a lull right now as far as off-season moves go, I thought it would be a good time to break down by position our needs in the draft.

Quarterback
Dallas has two on roster after trading for Jon Kitna, and could just take two into the season. But Kitna's age makes it important for the Cowboys to begin trying to develop a replacement. It doesn't have to be someone ready to make a quick transition to pro ball, but someone with intriguing talent who can be brought along slowly over the next couple of years.
NEED Sixth- or seventh-round pick

Fullback
Although Dallas could always use a better fullback than Deon Anderson, I believe the progress at the tight end position shown by Martellus Bennett will affect how this position is addressed. If the idea is to get your best players on the field, the Cowboys will not be using the fullback much this season. So I don't expect Dallas to use the draft to bring in competition for the spot, especially since Anderson is a quality special teams player.
NEED UDFA

Tailback
This position is fully stocked with Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. The Cowboys could use some competition for Alonzo Coleman's practice squad spot, but I wouldn't expect them to use a draft pick on someone they know they'll have to try to put on the PS.
NEED UDFA

Wide receiver
This might be the hardest position to gauge because we don't really know what we can expect from the players already on the roster. If we've got a No. 2 in Miles Austin (or one of the others), then the need is not as high. Since we don't know, I tend the think the need is high. We likely have one roster spot at this position completely open (if we carry six), and another potentially open if Isaiah Stanback shows he cannot remain healthy. Another shoulder injury for him this year (or other kind that keeps him off the field), and Dallas has to give up on him.
NEED Second- to fourth-round pick, possibly another in fifth through seventh rounds

Tight end
The one-two punch appears to be strong, based on the ability we saw from Martellus Bennett last season. Tony Curtis was tossed aside, but Rodney Hannah appears to at least be his equal, showing very good receiving ability last preseason. Since we don't have enough evidence to know if Hannah is up to the blocking responsibilities, it wouldn't hurt to bring in some competition for his spot. But based on what we've seen from him, it might be a waste to bring in a draft pick when we're not likely to keep more than three at the position.
NEED UDFA

Offensive line
The Cowboys lack of quality depth showed when Kyle Kosier was lost to injury for the season. Dallas did add a veteran in Montrae Holland who looks like he can be quality depth or even a challenge to start if he stays in shape. But Holland is the only interior backup who proved worth keeping, and one, Joe Berger, was allowed to run off to Miami without a fight. Cory Proctor, who showed his lack of starting ability, knows the ins and outs of both the guard and center positions, but that's all he really brings to the team. So Dallas definitely needs to find a center/guard who can challenge for his spot and eventually (hopefully) for a starting spot. At the tackle spots, the jury is still out on Doug Free's future, but Pat McQuistan's stock really fell and it's possible Dallas also will bring in someone to challenge for his spot.
NEED Second- to fourth-round pick, possibly another in fifth through seventh rounds

Defensive end
Signing Igor Olshansky pretty much has solidified this position, but Dallas can use some challengers because Stephen Bowen and Marcus Spears will be unrestricted free agents after this season. The need isn't pressing, though, because Jay Ratliff also can play end, possibly better than any player Dallas has manning the position. It still wouldn't be surprising to see Dallas bring in a late-round draft pick here to challenge for Bowen's spot.
NEED Sixth- to seventh-round or UDFA

Nose tackle
Jay Ratliff is great and has a nonstop motor, but Dallas can't play him every defensive snap or he'll most likely wear down and not be as effective. If the Cowboys don't add anyone at this position, they could give Marcus Spears a few snaps to spell Ratliff, but that doesn't appear to be a real good option. Finding a nose tackle who can spell Ratliff needs to be a priority.
NEED Second- to fourth-round pick

Inside linebacker
The starters are set, but the depth is questionable and lacking. Bobby Carpenter staying on this roster likely depends on his play during the preseason. I think he has a good chance of fairing well in the nickel position but can't be counted on to be an every-down linebacker because he's not physical enough. So that makes it a pretty good need to add someone who can step in physically for Keith Brooking or Bradie James, especially if Brooking's older body isn't up to the challenge of starting. Matt Stewart is sort of a wild card here, but I don't think Dallas should count on him considering he hasn't played in two years.
NEED Second- to fourth-round pick

Outside linebacker
The trio of DeMarcus Ware, Greg Ellis and Anthony Spencer isn't going anywhere this year. Ellis is needed for the time being until we see more pass rush ability from Spencer, who has proven to be solid against the run. The only other depth Dallas has at the position, though, appears to be special-teammers, so there is room to add another potential pass rusher who can give Ware a few plays off.
NEED Third- to sixth-round pick

Cornerback
With Anthony Henry gone, Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick will get to challenge for the starting role, with the loser becoming the third corner. However, depth beyond that is a concern, and is definitely needed. Alan Ball will probably stick around, but appears to be a replaceable player, but there is roster room for probably two more cornerbacks.
NEED Fifth- to seventh-round pick, possibly two

Safety
The signing of Gerald Sensabaugh seems to give Dallas hope that it has the starting spots secured. But there are concerns about the depth, with Dallas at least needing one player to compete with Patrick Watkins, Courtney Brown and Tra Battle for a spot. None of those guys has proven that he's not expendable, with Watkins and Battle mostly showing special teams ability and Brown not displaying the potential he's shown in practice.
NEED Fourth- to sixth-round pick

With all things being equal (meaning players of the same value at each position available in each round), here's what I would probably end up with based on our needs:

Second Wide receiver
Third Nose tackle
Fourth Center/guard
Fourth Inside linebacker
Fifth Cornerback
Fifth Outside linebacker
Fifth Safety
Sixth Offensive lineman
Sixth Quarterback
Seventh Cornerback
Seventh Wide receiver

Let me be clear that if there is a superior player at a different position, I would take that person over a player I believe we might need more. I don't believe in making reaches to fill needs.
 

big dog cowboy

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I'll be shocked if we go WR with our first pick and don't go S until the 5th.

But who knows.
 

NeonNinja

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I agree, I don't see us waiting til the 5th to grab a safety. Nobody knows how things will work out though.
 

cowboyjoe

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totally agree we dont need to reach in the draft, take the best player available
 

gimmesix

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big dog cowboy;2701737 said:
I'll be shocked if we go WR with our first pick and don't go S until the 5th.

But who knows.

With Sensabaugh, I'm not sure Dallas will feel the need to grab a safety early. Phillips seems to be pretty high on Sensabaugh, so we're just looking for backups at the position.

We're more in need of quality competition, IMO, at wide receiver, which Phillips seems to recognize but Jerry doesn't ... which probably means we won't draft one.
 

Bob Sacamano

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this draft for safeties just isn't that good, which is partly why we signed Sensabaugh, and didn't commit to him longer than a year
 

gimmesix

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JerryAdvocate;2701771 said:
this draft for safeties just isn't that good, which is partly why we signed Sensabaugh, and didn't commit to him longer than a year

Good point on the first part. The safety class is weak.

Bad point on the second. Sensabaugh apparently was seeking only a one-year contract with hopes of making it pay off next year.
 

Bob Sacamano

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gimmesix;2701775 said:
Good point on the first part. The safety class is weak.

Bad point on the second. Sensabaugh apparently was seeking only a one-year contract with hopes of making it pay off next year.

ok, I made that last part up
 

JoaquinFenix

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While I appreciate the thoughtfulness put into this post, I strongly disagree with your conclusion.

What's the deal with the WR crowd on this board? We just signed a lucrative, long-term deal for a #1 WR (Williams). Last year, we signed a long-term deal for a #2 receiver (Crayton). Austin has shown flashes of brilliance, and should be able to compete for the #2 or #3 spot as the speed guy. While not as sexy as Austin, Hurd has demonstrated competence as a backup #4 WR. If he can stay healthy, Stanback has all the tools to be productive as a backup WR. Beyond that, you're looking at a late Day 2 draft pick or UDFA for the sixth and final spot.

Meanwhile, our greatest deficiency - offense or defense - over the last several years has been our pass coverage, particularly on the deep ball. Yes, I'm looking at you, dearly departed Roy Williams and highly overpaid Ken Hamlin. The Sensabaugh signing was only a 1-year deal. If he flops, who's your new starter? And don't tell me it's Patrick Watkins, Courtney Brown or Tra Battle. If he succeeds, do you want to overpay another soon-to-be FA?

In fact, I would leave your fifth-round safety pick and take another safety with our second-rounder. As stated above, we only need at most one WR, and a late-round (e.g., compensatory) pick at that.
 

JoaquinFenix

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Oh, and I forgot to mention our other "WRs," Witten and Bennett.

Not to mention our terrific trio of pass-catching RBs coming out of the backfield, including Jones, who may get split out wide on occasion Reggie Bush style.

So, yeah, I think we're pretty good as far as pass catchers go.
 

Apollo Creed

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I like the idea of Sensabaugh playing for a contract, he will have a solid year.

See Ken Hamlin. Once they get paid, they mail it in.
 

gimmesix

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JoaquinFenix;2701784 said:
While I appreciate the thoughtfulness put into this post, I strongly disagree with your conclusion.

What's the deal with the WR crowd on this board? We just signed a lucrative, long-term deal for a #1 WR (Williams). Last year, we signed a long-term deal for a #2 receiver (Crayton). Austin has shown flashes of brilliance, and should be able to compete for the #2 or #3 spot as the speed guy. While not as sexy as Austin, Hurd has demonstrated competence as a backup #4 WR. If he can stay healthy, Stanback has all the tools to be productive as a backup WR. Beyond that, you're looking at a late Day 2 draft pick or UDFA for the sixth and final spot.

Meanwhile, our greatest deficiency - offense or defense - over the last several years has been our pass coverage, particularly on the deep ball. Yes, I'm looking at you, dearly departed Roy Williams and highly overpaid Ken Hamlin. The Sensabaugh signing was only a 1-year deal. If he flops, who's your new starter? And don't tell me it's Patrick Watkins, Courtney Brown or Tra Battle. If he succeeds, do you want to overpay another soon-to-be FA?

In fact, I would leave your fifth-round safety pick and take another safety with our second-rounder. As stated above, we only need at most one WR, and a late-round (e.g., compensatory) pick at that.

I have less apprehension about Sensabaugh failing than I do our second receiver options. Plus, again, Sensabaugh signed for one year because he wanted to sign for one year. He turned down New Orleans because it wanted to lock him up for more than a year.
 

jazzcat22

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Excellent post and analysis. I agree with pretty much everything.
Except using a 2nd round on a WR. unless he is BPA.
I see using that on a NT, LB, OL first, but only as BPA also.
 

gimmesix

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jazzcat22;2701843 said:
Excellent post and analysis. I agree with pretty much everything.
Except using a 2nd round on a WR. unless he is BPA.
I see using that on a NT, LB, OL first, but only as BPA also.

I don't have a problem with using the second-round pick on NT, LB or OL, if they are the best available. But all things being equal, I'd go WR first.

I just think we've got sure starters at those other positions, but an unsure situation at receiver. Roy Williams is a sure starter, but who else? Crayton's a No. 3 and Austin and the others are unproven.

I'll be happy if one of those unproven guys proves to be a player, but I think counting on that to happen, without taking some precautions, is very risky. There's no guarantee we'd hit on a second-round receiver, either, but that would at least add to the competition for that spot.

Maybe some of these guys who are taking an all-rosy view of our WR position don't remember the lesson we should have learned from Billy Davis in 1998.
 

Longboysfan

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They should address BPA first with the NT then OL.
Anything else will shake out in camp cuts.
 

reddyuta

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what has Jerry shown you to make you believe that we will draft a wr in the
2nd rd?.that will be drafting a wr in the 1st,2nd,3rd in a row after giving up a 1st and 3rd for RW.
 

gimmesix

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reddyuta;2702150 said:
what has Jerry shown you to make you believe that we will draft a wr in the
2nd rd?.that will be drafting a wr in the 1st,2nd,3rd in a row after giving up a 1st and 3rd for RW.

Did I say I expect Jerry to draft a WR in the second round? I said that's what I would do. And what we gave up for Williams doesn't matter to me and does no good if the No. 2 receiver can't beat one-on-one coverage against the No. 2 corner.
 

CF74

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JoaquinFenix;2701807 said:
Oh, and I forgot to mention our other "WRs," Witten and Bennett.

Not to mention our terrific trio of pass-catching RBs coming out of the backfield, including Jones, who may get split out wide on occasion Reggie Bush style.

So, yeah, I think we're pretty good as far as pass catchers go.

We need a Center and a Tackle more than WR...
 
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