fanfromvirginia
Inconceivable!
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Man, I've got some time on my hands...
I decided to try to systematically determine where the Cowboys might expect to draft using common sense, a little research, and (what I know of) the laws of probability. My goal was to find the one slot I would choose if my life depended on it.
So first I narrowed it down -- we're obviously going to finish with somewhere between 3 and 8 wins. So I went back and researched where every team that finished with between 3 and 8 wins drafted over the last 10 seasons. Here's what I found:
Of course, I don't know how many wins the Cowboys will finish with. None of us do. And opinions on this vary widely so I decided to go with basic laws of probability rather than guessing based on what we (think we) know about this team.
Even though there are very plausible scenarios for us to either go winless or win out in the final 5 games (new coach and a team playing better and fired up v. tough schedule, injuries, less to play for than opponents on average), the odds of either happening are actually pretty low, everything else equal (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = about 1.5%). So I eliminated those. I went ahead and eliminated the 1-4 and 4-1 scenarios as well for similar reasons (everything else equal, more teams should go 2-3 or 3-2 than 1-4 or 4-1) and just went with a 5 or 6 win season and split the difference, which came out to be about 8.45. So I rounded down and chose 8.
There you have it -- one man's reasonable attempt to guesstimate where we're going to be picking in the draft. (Of course, this is just a guess. If I had to put a range on it, I'd say we're picking between 6 and 10.)
So...with the 8th pick in the 2011 NFL draft, the Cowboys pick...who?
I decided to try to systematically determine where the Cowboys might expect to draft using common sense, a little research, and (what I know of) the laws of probability. My goal was to find the one slot I would choose if my life depended on it.
So first I narrowed it down -- we're obviously going to finish with somewhere between 3 and 8 wins. So I went back and researched where every team that finished with between 3 and 8 wins drafted over the last 10 seasons. Here's what I found:
- Teams that finished with 3 wins drafted on average at the 2.5 spot. The range was very narrow -- 2-4.
- Teams that finished with 4 wins drafted on average in the 4th spot but the range was 1-7.
- Teams that finished with 5 wins drafted on average in the 7th spot and the range was 5-10.
- Teams that finished with 6 wins drafted on average in the 10th spot. The range was 7-14.
- Teams that finished with 7 wins drafted at about the 12.5 spot. That range was 9-17.
- Teams that finished at 8-8 drafted on average at the 16th spot. The range was 12-20.
Of course, I don't know how many wins the Cowboys will finish with. None of us do. And opinions on this vary widely so I decided to go with basic laws of probability rather than guessing based on what we (think we) know about this team.
Even though there are very plausible scenarios for us to either go winless or win out in the final 5 games (new coach and a team playing better and fired up v. tough schedule, injuries, less to play for than opponents on average), the odds of either happening are actually pretty low, everything else equal (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = about 1.5%). So I eliminated those. I went ahead and eliminated the 1-4 and 4-1 scenarios as well for similar reasons (everything else equal, more teams should go 2-3 or 3-2 than 1-4 or 4-1) and just went with a 5 or 6 win season and split the difference, which came out to be about 8.45. So I rounded down and chose 8.
There you have it -- one man's reasonable attempt to guesstimate where we're going to be picking in the draft. (Of course, this is just a guess. If I had to put a range on it, I'd say we're picking between 6 and 10.)
So...with the 8th pick in the 2011 NFL draft, the Cowboys pick...who?
:laugh1:
DAL @ GB
