AOL Blog: The Debriefing: Top Gun Helps Us Understand the NFL Season... 'boys blurb

[WoodysGirl]

Posted Sep 6th 2007 10:30AM by mjd
Filed under: NFL Fans, Featured Stories, The Word
The Debriefing is a column that runs every weekday at 9:00 a.m. here on FanHouse. It goes deep into one issue and then bounces around to a plethora of smaller ones ... and does it all in a way that will make you feel like the prettiest girl at the cotillion. Bookmark this page, and visit daily.

If I could figure out a way to do it, I'd have Kenny Loggins' Danger Zone playing in the background while you read this NFL Season Preview. If you have it on iTunes or something, do me a favor, and get it bumping. That's how psyched you should be about the start of the season tonight.

I've separated all 32 teams into categories representing Top Gun pilots ... from the Mavericks, the best of the best, at the top ... all the way down to the Geese, who are going to end up dead.

In between, there are the Icemen, the teams quite likely to be excellent, if not spectacularly talented like Maverick ... the Merlins, who won't be doing much here, but as Tim Robbins proved, can have a bright future ahead of them ... the Cougars, who are likely to lose their edge this year ... the Sliders, the heretofore bumbling goofballs who might actually be there at the end when things get important ... and the Sundowns, the teams we just don't know enough about.

Strap yourself in, pilot. You've got some reading to do.

The Mavericks: The Best of the Best​

New England Patriots. They signed Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, and every available free agent wide receiver in the universe ... and the consensus around the league was, "Well, let's go ahead and crown their *****." And sure ... those ***** look to be in prime crowning position.

But nothing would please me more than for Randy Moss to prove that he can single-handedly undermine even the strongest of foundations in the NFL ... if he did, he'd have to be the inaugural member of the Hall of Fame's new "Team Killers" wing. Something tells me that Bill Belichick will cut him or have him killed before it comes to that, though.​

San Diego Chargers. San Diego had 11 Pro Bowlers last year, most of the starters return, and the ones who don't aren't ones who will be missed. The 2007 Bolts are all about two things ... snazzy new uniforms, and Norv Turner. The players are good enough to win a Super Bowl, and if Norv Turner is, too ... then they will.​

That has to frighten the hell out of Chargers fans.​

Indianapolis Colts. Yes, they have holes on defense ... giant, gaping holes, particularly in the secondary. But here's the thing ... Peyton Manning is still better against good cornerbacks than your quarterback is against awful cornerbacks.​

But their run defense is going to take a step backwards this year, if that's even possible. They're going to go from "awful, but something we can overcome" to "embarrassingly bad, and the kind of thing that will prevent us from winning the Super Bowl." A physical team will find a way to keep the ball out of Manning's hands and behead them in January.​

Chicago Bears. They're not as good as the other three teams in this category. However ... the defense will still be fierce, they have one of the easiest schedules in the league, and Rex Grossman, as bad as he often is, is just a shot of confidence away from being decent quarterback.​

All anyone remembers from last year is Bad Rex ... but Good Rex had some games that were incredible. Half of his games last year, had had a quarterback rating between 98.6 and 148.0. In the other 8 games, though ... I'm sorry to say that his average quarterback rating was 37.3. That (in addition to being a rather amazing statistic) is a mental block. If Rexy can find a way to get over that ... the Bears could be rather unbeatable.​

Still, their offensive deficiencies keep me from ranking them among the truly elite ... but they're about the best the NFC has to offer, and they'll almost certainly be around in January.​

The Icemen: Competency is Almost Assured

Philadelphia Eagles. The three biggest factors for the Eagles this season: Health, Health, and Health. They've got the horses to be an elite team, but if Donovan McNabb or Brian Westbrook go down (and let's be honest, that's not exactly a remote possibility) ... the Eagles will again be also-rans.

Baltimore Ravens. They're a poor man's Chicago Bears. Their defense is going to keep them in virtually every game, but their offense can't do anything ... and unlike the Bears, they unfortunately have some competition within their conference.​

And I'm sorry, but I don't see Willis McGahee as the type of player who can transform a poor offense to an explosive offense.​

The Merlins: Not Much Happening Here, But A Bright Career Lies Ahead​

Atlanta Falcons. This might be the most ridiculous thing I've ever said, but I don't believe that just because a team goes into a year with Joey Harrington as their starting quarterback, it's a certainty that they will suck.​

For one thing ... you never know when the light bulb is going to go off for a quarterback. It can take years ... it might not be until they're 30. They might need the right system, the right coach, the right amount of confidence ... there are a billion x-factors.

And getting out of Detroit, where he was universally loathed, and going to Atlanta, where he has the public-relations advantage of not being a dog murderer, and playing in Bobby Petrino's quarterback-friendly system, with the Falcons stout running game ... it might not be a terrible situation for Joey Harrington. I'm not penciling them into the playoffs ... but they might not be terrible.​

Washington Commanders. They're going to make the playoffs, since Joe Gibbs decided recently that everyone on the roster has to drive Toyotas ... but things don't look totally bleak for the Commanders, either.​

Jason Campbell, in his first year as a starter, is not going to lead a team to the playoffs in a tough division (at least, by NFC standards). But at various points this year, he might get adjusted to the speed of the NFL game, learn to read blitzes and coverages better, learn how to take advantage of his arm and athleticism, and prove that, if Dan Snyder could get out of the way, that the Commanders don't have to be confined to mediocrity forever.​

Buffalo Bills. There are a handful of teams whose fortunes seem to rest squarely on the shoulders of their question-mark quarterbacks ... the Vikings, the Commanders, the Bills, and a few other among them. But out of that entire group, the question-mark quarterback I'm most confident in is J.P. Losman.

What inspires this confidence? Two things: One, that he had the confidence to grow a mustache that made him look like the gay man on the old Buccaneers helmets. And two, he eventually had the good sense to shave it off.​

I like Losman, I love Lee Evans, I like Marshawn Lynch, I like the young safeties in Buffalo ... I like what Marv Levy is building. Hey, I guess they're right. Senior citizens, although slow and dangerous behind the wheel, can still serve a purpose. I'll be right back. Don't you go dyin' on me!​

Cleveland Browns. Sooner or later, Brady Quinn is going to be the starter, and he's going to be throwing to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, and that's going to look like something that Browns fans might enjoy for the next 10 years or so.​

But they're starting Charlie Frye at quarterback, at least for a while ... which is a clear indication that they've already chalked this year up to a losing one. I say the Browns organization owes a partial refund to all season tickets holders, subtracting all the games that Charlie Frye is starting. That's just not fair.

The Geese: Quite Likely to End Up Dead​

Oakland Raiders. Just minutes ago, I had them in the category above, in teams that might not suck as bad as you think. I envisioned Daunte Culpepper finally getting back from that knee injury (and he did have an impressive preseason), throwing to two receivers who, let's not forget, still have some talent, in Joey Porter and Ronald Curry.

If the Culpepper to Curry and Porter connection was even fair-to-middling ... combining an offense that's even close to competent with a defense that, last year, was downright amazing, given the circumstances ... I thought the Raiders could surprise some people by going as high as 5 or possibly 6 wins this year.​

But then they announced they were starting Josh McCown at quarterback. He did not have an impressive preseason. Or anything else, for that matter. So nevermind.​

Green Bay Packers. What if the Packers play to their full potential and have a great, great year? Maybe they have a barely winning record, and maybe they sneak into the playoffs ... then what? Brett Favre's still going to be old, he's still going to quit soon, and when he does, you'll still have to go into a rebuilding mode.​

I don't blame Brett Favre for wanting to play ... that's what players do. But Green Bay's killing themselves by letting him do it in Lambeau. The Packers should be in Year 2 or 3 of a rebuilding phase, seeing what else they have at quarterback, and relying on their defense while they get holes filled on offense.​

I like Favre as much as the next guy, but his presence, in terms of planning a future for for the Packers, has the team completely hamstrung right now.​

New York Giants. A short list of things I am not sold on concerning the 2007 New York Giants:​

The combination of Reuben Droughns and Brandon Jacobs coming even close to replacing what Tiki Barber gave them ... Eli Manning finally having that breakthrough season ... that the Michael Strahan psuedo-holdout was not a distraction to them ... That any sort of viable leadership exists on the team (except for Plaxico Burress, of course) ... that Tom Coughlin being on the hotseat before Week 1 even starts is a healthy thing for the Giants.​

It's really hard to see any positive indicators here. Sorry.​

Kansas City Chiefs. I was all about Damon Huard last year ... he was shockingly efficient under center, and never should have relinquished the starting job when Trent Green came back. And then, it took him the entire off-season to beat out Brodie Croyle, and some of that confidence evaporated.​

And then there's Larry Johnson, who carried the ball over 7,000 times last year, who will be running this year behind an offensive line that's been depleted by the departures of a couple of studs. And it's not like the receiving corps is going to do much to take any pressure off the running game ... and by that, I mean, the Chiefs receivers suck.​

I love you, Herm Edwards, but sometimes, I think you'd be better off just delivering the pregame speeches and letting someone else make the football decisions.​

Minnesota Vikings. On one side of the ball ... arguably the best defense in the league last year. You couldn't run on this team if your primary ball carrier was a Volkswagon.​

On the other side of the ball, however ... there's Tavaris Jackson, a rookie running back, and Bobby Wade and Troy Williamson starting at wide receiver. No contrast that great has been seen in a singular unit since Eddie Murphy had a stand-up comedy and musical career going at the same time.​

It's all about Tavaris Jackson ... I imagine that Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson are going to see a lot of stacked fronts, and it's going to be up to Jackson to take advantage and hit open receivers downfield. If you're waiting for me to tell you that I have a tremendous amount of faith in Tavaris Jackson ... you might be waiting a while.​

Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In order for the Bucs to be successful, they need two things: 1) Jeff Garcia to play like he played last year in Philadelphia, as opposed to how he played in previous years in Detroit and Cleveland. And 2) Cadillac Williams to return to form and start to hit the hole.​

Even if both of those things happen, though, what's the ceiling? 8-8? Maybe 9-7? This team is too old in some spots, and too inexperienced in others ... it's hard to envision anything too spectacular happening for the Bucs this year.​

The Cougars: Likely to Lose Their Edge​

Dallas Cowboys: Maybe it's my own bias, but it seems like everyone wants to talk about the Chargers replacing Marty Schottenheimer with Norv Turner, while ignoring that Dallas replaced Bill Parcells with Wade Phillips. Is that not a bigger drop-off? The guy the Cowboys replaced with a proven loser was at least a proven winner ... how can this not be a factor?​

​

I'm seeing a drop-off for Tony Romo, too ... it seemed like last year, teams started to figure him out a little bit as the season went on. In his first 6 games as a starter, he never had a QB rating lower than 73, and most of the time, was way over that. The Cowboys went 4-2 in that stretch. In his last 5 regular season games, though, Romo had a QB rating 58.8 or below three times ... and in that stretch, the Cowboys went 2-5. ​

I could easily be wrong about that, and would love to be ... after all, there will be times when all he has to do is just throw the ball up and let Terrell Owens do the rest, and after that, the fact that his great-great-great grandma pulled one of them studs up out of the barn should provide him with the athleticism to handle the rest.​

New Orleans Saints. It's hard to not see them as a playoff team, but a lot of other people seem to be sticking them in that "Super Bowl contender" group, and I'm just not that firmly on the bandwagon. So I'm sticking them here.​

Three things give me pause. 1) A defense that gave up too many big plays, and didn't create enough of their own. 2) Marques Colston isn't a secret anymore, and while I have faith that he can still succeed when he's the primary target of opposing secondaries, he's still going to have to go out there and prove it. And 3) The wave of post-Katrina magic/emotion won't be behind them this year.​

All that said, though ... they've got a ridiculously explosive offense with a ton of weapons, they play a pretty favorable schedule, and they'll be in the playoffs. But not the Super Bowl.​

New York Jets. They went 10-6 and made the playoffs last year ... and somehow managed to beat just one very good team along the way. Let's examine:​

The wins: Tennessee, Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, New England (the one), Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota, Oakland.​

The losses: New England (who also dismantled the Jets in the playoffs), Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Chicago, Buffalo.​

For the most part, they lost to good teams, and beat bad ones ... fortunately for them, their schedule was filled with bad teams. It won't be this year. And their upgrades (Thomas Jones ... eh) aren't significant enough to overcome the tougher schedule.​

Seattle Seahawks. In theory, all that has to happen here is that Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander regain their 2005 form, and the Seahawks are magically a very good team again. But that's not going to be so easy.

Alexander wasn't healthy last year, and that certainly hurt his performance, but ... in running back years, Shaun Alexander's an old, old guy.​

He's 30, and he's been carrying a heavy load for a long time. This is about the age that running backs start to decline ... his missing 7 weeks last year, and not being very effective when he did play (8 games where he averaged 3.5 yards per carry or fewer) ... that wasn't just happenstance. He's old, and this team never really recovered from the loss of Steve Hutchinson.​

The defense is completely rebuilt, too ... not that that's necessarily a bad thing, but it's hard to picture a bunch of new parts in a new system coming together to form a dominant unit immediately.​

San Francisco. They posted a respectable 7-9 mark last year, they have a talented young QB/RB combo, and it's assumed that they're only going to get better ... but I'm not sold on that. It's entirely possible that Norv Turner's off-season movement will end up hurting both the Chargers and the 49ers.​

Norv loved Alex Smith, and Alex Smith loved Norv ... but now Norv is off playing with his new toys, and Smith is going to have to find his groove with someone else. It could happen ... but I'm not automatically penciling them in to be better than 7-9.​

The Sliders: Talents Haven't Been Clearly Discernible, But Might Find A Way To Be There In The End​

Houston Texans. At some point during the season, someone's going to say that Houston's offensive line is improved since last year, but that's not going to be the case. David Carr was sacked at an alarming pace behind that line ... but people don't realize how many of those sacks were his fault.

So they've got the much-hyped Matt Schaub under center now, and it's hard to imagine it not being an upgrade. I love Andre Johnson on the outside, I think Gary Kubiak's a good coach, and I love some of the young talent on defense, with Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Mario Williams. The Ahman Green signing still kind of baffles me, though.​

But this team ... with the right breaks, some building confidence, and any kind of production from the running game ... they've got a higher ceiling than people give them credit for.​

Miami Dolphins. I'm not a huge believer in 37-year-old quarterbacks coming off of brain-rattling concussions ... but I am a big believer in Dolphins offensive line coach Hudson Houck, who's reunited with the offensive coordinator he tag-teamed with in San Diego, new Fish head coach Cam Cameron.​

That's why Trent Green is going to have a decent season, and Ronnie Brown is going to bounce back. And the defense, one of the league's best last year, returns almost completely intact.​

Remember the expectations people had for this team last year ... now sub out the disaster that was Daunte Culpepper for Trent Green, and mix in an improved offensive line ... it might work this year.​

Arizona Cardinals. Key figure: Russ Grimm. Because if the Cardinals can patch together a decent offensive line, it could be "Katie Bar the Door" in the desert. I believe that's the first time I've ever typed that phrase ... it's one my dad's favorites. Why I decided to apply it to the Arizona Cardinals, I couldn't tell you.​

Anyway, Ken Whisenhunt wants to establish a run, and if he can ... Matt Leinart has the talent and the receivers to do some major damage. I can see a lot of shootouts going down with the Cardinals this year, and if they can block even a little bit, they have the talent to come out on top of a lot of them.​

There's also this: easiest schedule in the league.​

Detroit Lions. Jon Kitna says they're winning 10 games ... you know what that says to me? That Jon Kitna doesn't spend any time at practice watching how the defense is doing.​

You can see why Kitna's excited ... he threw for 4,000 yards last year, and he's got ballers around around him. Calvin Johnson is going to ball. Roy Williams balls. Mike Furrey balls.

But that defense ... the defense scares me a a little bit. They gave up nearly 25 points per game last year, better than only two other teams. But you know (and this was a factor with Arizona above, too) ... teams like Indianapolis and New Orleans are proving that you can be good offensively and poor defensively, and win a lot of games.​

Jacksonville Jaguars. They made the right choice when they released Byron Leftwich. Not necessarily because Garrard is better, or because he's the best man for the job ... but I like the fact that they picked one guy, and cut the other. It eliminates any possibility of a quarterback controversy or a built-in excuse for the players if things don't go well. You have one guy. You will live with it.​

This is just a good, well-rounded team ... they could use some improvement at receiver, but I love the defensive front, Rashean Mathis leads an underrated secondary, and they can win with David Garrard.​

Look at some of the wins the Jags had last year ... they beat Dallas, the Jets, the Eagles, the Colts ... and some of those wins looked pretty easy. But they also lost to the Commanders, Texans (twice), and Buffalo ... if they can develop any consistency, this is a team that will be very, very good.​

The Sundowns: We Just Don't Know Enough About Them​

Tennessee Titans. It wouldn't surprise me to see Vince Young become a dominating and inspiring force ... and it also wouldn't surprise me if he finished the year with a QB rating of about 70.​

One thing people are overlooking with the Titans, though, with all the attention that Vince Young gets ... is that they're really going to miss Pacman Jones on the field. He was as valuable to the Titans defense as he is to the local stripper economy ... he shut down half of the field, and made big-time special teams plays, too.​

More than Young's presence, it's Pacman's absence that has me leaning towards leaving the Titans out of the playoffs this year.​

Pittsburgh Steelers. It wouldn't surprise me if the new Steelers coaching staff turned Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, and Santonio Holmes into a potent passing attack ... and it wouldn't surprise me if a weak offensive line submarined the entire unit and the Steelers went 6-10, and then, in a drunken moment of shared depression and needy, clingy, weakness, Ben Roethlisberger and Steely McBeam shared a passionate night together that would change both of their lives forever.

I see the Steelers getting better as the year goes on, adjusting to new offensive and defensive schemes, but ... they play in a hell of a tough division to be dealing with growing pains. If they were in the NFC, I'd pencil them into the playoffs ... in a division with Baltimore and Cincinnati, though, it's a little harder to do.

St. Louis Rams. It wouldn't surprise me if Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson proved to be one of the most feared tandems in all of football and led the Rams to the playoffs ... and it wouldn't surprise me if their defense didn't improve enough to make a real difference in their near-the-playoffs, but not-really-that-good status in the NFC.​

I hate talking about the teams in this category ... they all have areas of great talent, but they all also seems to have fatal flaws. It could go either way. We're dealing with tons of "coulds" and "shoulds." Those are the worse words to read in an NFL preview, I'm aware ... but I can't help it.​

Among these teams, though ... the Rams are one of the ones I lean a little bit more towards the positive. They've got a comparatively easy schedule, and despite their lack of talent on defense (though rookie Adam Carriker should help), they've got a coach who's committed to getting better in that area. Even a little bit of improvement there could get them in the postseason.​

Denver Broncos. It wouldn't surprise me if Jay Cutler and Travis Henry both lived up to the hype and Denver became a solid, well-rounded team ... and it wouldn't surprise me if Cutler struggled for another year and Travis Henry ended up getting about 45% of the Broncos carries.

They should be able to rely on their defense, though ... I believe that if you've got good corners, you've got a good defense. And with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, the Broncos certainly have that. The run defense might not be terribly stout, though ... but again, with great cover corners, it doesn't always have to be.​

Carolina Panthers. It wouldn't surprise me if Carolina's always-reliable defense and new offensive scheme got the Panthers back in the playoffs ... and it wouldn't surprise me if the team wasn't able to get past Jake Delhomme's established bar of mediocrity.​

Delhomme was terrible last year, and to be honest, I'm a little surprised that he was able to hold on to the starting job through training camp. I'm almost certain you'll see David Carr at some point under center ... but with Steve Smith, the new zone-blocking running game, and a defense that stops the run, I still think you'll see Carolina in the playoffs.​

Cincinnati Bengals. It wouldn't surprise me if the Bengals offense finally started clicking and propelled the Bengals to the elite plateau of the NFL ... and it wouldn't surprise me if it was another year where they just seemed constantly out of sync and finished around 8-8 again.​

If the Bengals don't make the playoffs this year, it's going to be awfully hard for Carson Palmer to swallow (fortunately, he's been practicing that this offseason, too). You can't ask for much more offensive talent than he has.​

But the loss of Chris Henry for half the season will hurt, half of their defense is being forced to play with ankle bracelets on, and I don't feel particularly confident in their ability to stop the run ... some teams have proven that they have the offense to overcome that sort of thing, but so far, the Bengals have only been a great offense on paper.​

LINK​

 

[CrazyCowboy]

quit hating on us.......dang it!

 

[AdamJT13]

Cowboys: Maybe it's my own bias, but it seems like everyone wants to talk about the Chargers replacing Marty Schottenheimer with Norv Turner, while ignoring that Dallas replaced Bill Parcells with Wade Phillips. Is that not a bigger drop-off? The guy the Cowboys replaced with a proven loser was at least a proven winner ... how can this not be a factor?

Let's see, Schottenheimer's career record is 200-126-1, a winning percentage of 61.3 percent. Over the past three seasons, he went 35-13 (72.9 percent). Turner's career record is 58-82-1, a winning percentage of 41.5 percent.

Parcell's career record is 172-130-1 (56.9 percent), and he went 24-24 over the past three seasons. Phillips' career record is 48-39, giving him a winning percentage of 55.2 percent.

Aside from the fact that Phillips is not a "proven loser," his career winning percentage is only 1.7 percentage points worse than Parcells' -- but better than Parcells' record in recent years. Turner (who IS proven loser) has a winning percentage that's 19.8 percentage points worse than Schottenheimer's -- and 31.4 percentage points worse than Schottenheimer's in recent years.

So no, it's not a bigger drop-off.

In his last 5 regular season games, though, Romo had a QB rating 58.8 or below three times ... and in that stretch, the Cowboys went 2-5.

We went 2-5 in our last five regular-season games?

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Cowboys seem more like Mavericks to me..... for obvious reasons

 

[RomoIsBack]

cant wait till romo prove them wrong

 

[zeromaster]

If I could figure out a way to do it, I'd have Kenny Loggins' Danger Zone playing in the background while you read this NFL Season Preview. If you have it on iTunes or something, do me a favor, and get it bumping. That's how psyched you should be about the start of the season tonight.

It's called javascript and embed tags, Einstein...

And Google search would get it.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Very poor ripoff of that great Star Wars comparison site, and with characters from a chick movie to boot.

Thumbs down.

And I can't wait for us to get to the playoffs so Wade can be the first coach to ever take three teams to the playoffs in his first season. Let's see the writers compare him to Norv then.

 

[zrinkill]

You're dangerous Romo ...

You're right Garrett .... I am dangerous!