Are free agents too expensive or will the $2 billion of 2018 salary cap space explode the scene

[Toruk_Makto]

The problem with assuming you should spend now in Free Agency because there is inflation in future prices ignores that there is ALWAYS at least a few teams with significant cap space every offseason. Coupled with there being truly few impact players that make it to free agency and that means you ALWAYS overpay. This year. Next year. The year after. We have given out a monster contract on average every year for 6 years straight. We ARE spending money.

This also assumes that the Salary cap goes up forever. Current CBA expires in 3 years. Current TV contracts expire in 5 years. Viewership is down. Competition for eyeballs are up. Costs are rising. How do we know the Salary cap will jump 10-20mm a year into perpetuity? That the owners won't step on the player's necks for a larger share of the pie and smaller cap? The answer is we don't.

Free agency was, and remains, a loser's game.

 

[Alexander]

{Slides glasses up nose; takes deep breath; prepares to read thesis}





Sorry, just can't.

 

[jterrell]

No, the scene won't explode.
Most of these owners got rich by spending no more than they had to for anything.
They will use cap accounting to cover any spending floor concerns.
More teams will Osweiler out and buy contracts imho.

Crawford's deal is a bad one because we are gonna eat it now when we have no real cap space but contracts have risen yearly and will continue to do so just not meteorically.

The good news for Cowboys fans is Jerry will spend because he can add players and turn them into profit by selling their jerseys et al.
So as the cap loosens Dallas will benefit as much as any team in football.
But I doubt Jacksonville and other teams with frugal owners go crazy beyond hitting the salary cap floor.

What you are seeing here is more unused cap space than ever on a yearly basis.
That unused cap space is growing at a rate well beyond the actual salary cap increase.
That just means teams aren't in a hurry to max out their caps ... and I'd posit that is largely for two reasons:
1. Teams have owners who have to write those checks.
2. GMs who spend big in free agency then lose have to explain to owners why they shouldn't be fired.

 

[LandryFan]

The NFL wants to grow revenues to 25m.....this will be a huge problem if salaries stay at 50% of revenues

I think they are going to have to expand the rosters to 60 to deal with the extra money and inflation

Teams will stop rolling over 50m+.......they aren't required to roll it all over

Teams will use Roster Bonuses instead of Signing Bonuses that are pro-rated......Roster Bonuses only count in the year they are paid.....teams wlll use straight line accounting which may help the trade market since there will be less accelerated dead money

DAL will be flush the next couple years and have to buy at least one or two FAs........Martin doesn't count either........he will be another salary cap ATM

If my takeaway of this is correct, there will be oodles of money to be spent. If so, I would rather use some of that surplus money on roster expansion than using it to give players more money simply because you have to spend X amount per season. The old argument ("it will be too costly so the owners would never go for it") against expanding the rosters doesn't hold much water any more. This would be a perfect time to expand rosters, IMO

 

[waldoputty]

Cap expansion is not a new phenomenon and you are expecting a spike in salaries that is not what happened before. Team expenditures have lagged cap expansion for years and the situation is not going to "blow up" on teams forcing their hand any more than it did in 2013 at the end of the first window.

You are making the mistake of thinking that NFL owners value the same thing that you do. When it comes to player salaries there is a lifetime of history of them doing everything in their power to suppress the market and keep costs down. Combine that with FA expenditures not correlating to wins and they are not going to inflate contracts for the sake of spending money.

You are correct on 1 matter. I went back and checked. Cap was stagnant was a good number of years, but it did rise before the stagnant period - obviously it had to rise since the cap was instituted in 1994 and was about $34 million.

However, it does appear the cap space is blowing up. For 2017, the total amount of dollars signed in 2017 was $592 million. There are 340 free agents left in 2017, which is about 10 per team. I doubt the Cowboys would sign more than 1 more. To do a random sampling, I choose Buffalo. Looking at their salaries, they have way more than 53 players under contract. At this point in free agency, I doubt they will take on much more player salaries. Let's be 'generous' and assume each team would take on another $5 million free agent expenses. That is $160 million total.
So you are at no more than $750 million total, all in for 2017 free agents. And you are rolling in ~$577 million of cap space into 2018. So 2018 has $1.4 billion + $577 million of cap space free.

If your argument (salaries not going to spike) is correct, the 2018 signing will not exceed $750 million by much, then what is going to happen to the $1.98 billion of cap space. Let's be generous for your argument and say $900 million. You are going to have more than $1 billion of cap space remaining, which will roll into 2019.

I will add to the cap space estimates for 2017 and 2018
2014 end of season cap space for all teams combined: $188 million
2015 end of season cap space for all teams combined: $263 million
2016 end of season cap space for all teams combined: $355 million
2017 end of season cap space: estimated to be ~$577 million
2018 end of season cap space: estimated to be ~$1.1 billion

If that is not the cap structure exploding from too much money, I dont know what is. This is a classic hockey stick - the thing is going to explode.

I will be in a meeting all day so will not be responding until this evening...

 

[jterrell]

You are correct on 1 matter. I went back and checked. Cap was stagnant was a good number of years, but it did rise before the stagnant period - obviously it had to rise since the cap was instituted in 1994 and was about $34 million.

However, it does appear the cap space is blowing up. For 2017, the total amount of dollars signed in 2017 was $592 million. There are 340 free agents left in 2017, which is about 10 per team. I doubt the Cowboys would sign more than 1 more. To do a random sampling, I choose Buffalo. Looking at their salaries, they have way more than 53 players under contract. At this point in free agency, I doubt they will take on much more player salaries. Let's be 'generous' and assume each team would take on another $5 million free agent expenses. That is $160 million total.
So you are at no more than $750 million total, all in for 2017 free agents. And you are rolling in ~$577 million of cap space into 2018. So 2018 has $1.4 billion + $577 million of cap space free.

If your argument (salaries not going to spike) is correct, the 2018 signing will not exceed $750 million by much, then what is going to happen to the $1.98 billion of cap space. Let's be generous for your argument and say $900 million. You are going to have more than $1 billion of cap space remaining, which will roll into 2019.

I will add to the cap space estimates for 2017 and 2018
2014 end of season cap space for all teams combined: $188 million
2015 end of season cap space for all teams combined: $263 million
2016 end of season cap space for all teams combined: $355 million
2017 end of season cap space: estimated to be ~$577 million
2018 end of season cap space: estimated to be ~$1.1 billion

If that is not the cap structure exploding from too much money, I dont know what is. This is a classic hockey stick - the thing is going to explode.

I will be in a meeting all day so will not be responding until this evening...

This is an interesting topic and good thread but you fall into old traps here.
You continue to project numbers that have no basis in reality.
The end of season cap space in 2018 will NOT be over 1 billion. WILL NOT BE.
That type of stuff derails the rest of your really good work and non-linear thinking here imho.
Teams are going to be able to make more moves than ever before because there is a lot of space to play with. These things will effect cap space in 2018 mightily.
These "projections" need to account for what you propose will happen and not be the basis for a thesis yet not occur... i.e,. spending will rise in all the remaining portion of 2017 and teams will pay to resign guys out of 2018 cap space.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

This is an interesting topic and good thread but you fall into old traps here.
You continue to project numbers that have no basis in reality.
The end of season cap space in 2018 will NOT be over 1 billion. WILL NOT BE.
That type of stuff derails the rest of your really good work and non-linear thinking here imho.
Teams are going to be able to make more moves than ever before because there is a lot of space to play with. These things will effect cap space in 2018 mightily.
These "projections" need to account for what you propose will happen and not be the basis for a thesis yet not occur... i.e,. spending will rise in all the remaining portion of 2017 and teams will pay to resign guys out of 2018 cap space.

This is exactly right. Guys like Martin never hit free agency. I did not see that type of accounting in his analysis.

It's what completely baffles me every single one of these threads and threads about Nordstrom and JC Penny. People complete forget about the signing of our own players as money spent. It's bizarre.

 

[waldoputty]

This is an interesting topic and good thread but you fall into old traps here.
You continue to project numbers that have no basis in reality.
The end of season cap space in 2018 will NOT be over 1 billion. WILL NOT BE.
That type of stuff derails the rest of your really good work and non-linear thinking here imho.
Teams are going to be able to make more moves than ever before because there is a lot of space to play with. These things will effect cap space in 2018 mightily.
These "projections" need to account for what you propose will happen and not be the basis for a thesis yet not occur... i.e,. spending will rise in all the remaining portion of 2017 and teams will pay to resign guys out of 2018 cap space.

If you are right about the $1B cap space, then you have proven my point. For the cap space to come back to say $500 million roll over after 2018, you are spending $1.5B in 2018. That would be double what is projected for 2017.

A lot of your argument is if it did not happen before, so it does not happen now. I rather run the numbers.

To be sure, I will do a quick check at 2018 free agents, but I doubt you have double the players. You can play games with structure, but remember you have 2 constraints, the cap and the floor.

I would be surprised now if salaries dont go nuts. If may well be like my friend say to her rich MD parents - "you will give it to me now or you will give it to me later. may as well give it to me while it makes a difference"

walking into meeting. enjoy your day.

 

[jterrell]

If you are right about the $1B cap space, then you have proven my point. For the cap space to come back to say $500 million roll over after 2018, you are spending $1.5B in 2018. That would be double what is projected for 2017.

A lot of your argument is if it did not happen before, so it does not happen now. I rather run the numbers.

To be sure, I will do a quick check at 2018 free agents, but I doubt you have double the players. You can play games with structure, but remember you have 2 constraints, the cap and the floor.

I would be surprised now if salaries dont go nuts. If may well be like my friend say to her rich MD parents - "you will give it to me now or you will give it to me later. may as well give it to me while it makes a difference"

walking into meeting. enjoy your day.

Again what you are missing is perhaps best explained with real life comparison.
Person A gets a 5% raise each year.
The simplistic way is to say in 2 years they will have 10% more money than they do now.
The realistic way is to say the cost of living increase is 3% per year so they will actually have a total of 4% more money in 2 years and then account for differences in possible tax brackets or insurance costs to get a net difference.

To the specific above: We have no idea how many free agents will exist in 2018 yet. It is impossible to know. Will Tony Romo be a free agent in 2018? We don't know. Player movement is somewhat predictable on a single player basis, but impossible to predict at large.

If teams gorge and spend lots of money your entire basis for doing so in future seasons becomes moot.

The simple metric most germane to you is the one you are ignoring: The Salary Cap is growing at a far lesser rate then cap space. Which means teams are NOT using the entire cap thus it's increases make skyrocketing salary projections incompatible with current data.

Which again ties to fact teams have seen large expenditures in free agency have seldom paid off.
At one point someone here posted a very good article about the top 10 free agents in total contract dollars over a 5 year period and how ~75% of those contracts were considered bad values as soon as 1 year later. It's been like 3 years ago but that seems to follow empirical evidence up to even today.

In short, yes there is lots of money to play with but teams are remaining frugal for the most part and while salaries will continue to increase something like roster expansion makes more sense than throwing money at players. Teams have learned that spending big on players sets new higher ceilings that lead to issues with franchising guys and other things so there are factors limiting the explosion of salaries you are expecting and again meets the actual data suggesting cap space is going up more than the actual cap. More simply put, a team rolling over 50m by choice is more likely to just not bother rolling it all over than they are to all of a sudden go spend an extra 70M the following season.

 

[waldoputty]

Again what you are missing is perhaps best explained with real life comparison.
Person A gets a 5% raise each year.
The simplistic way is to say in 2 years they will have 10% more money than they do now.
The realistic way is to say the cost of living increase is 3% per year so they will actually have a total of 4% more money in 2 years and then account for differences in possible tax brackets or insurance costs to get a net difference.

To the specific above: We have no idea how many free agents will exist in 2018 yet. It is impossible to know. Will Tony Romo be a free agent in 2018? We don't know. Player movement is somewhat predictable on a single player basis, but impossible to predict at large.

If teams gorge and spend lots of money your entire basis for doing so in future seasons becomes moot.

The simple metric most germane to you is the one you are ignoring: The Salary Cap is growing at a far lesser rate then cap space. Which means teams are NOT using the entire cap thus it's increases make skyrocketing salary projections incompatible with current data.

Which again ties to fact teams have seen large expenditures in free agency have seldom paid off.
At one point someone here posted a very good article about the top 10 free agents in total contract dollars over a 5 year period and how ~75% of those contracts were considered bad values as soon as 1 year later. It's been like 3 years ago but that seems to follow empirical evidence up to even today.

In short, yes there is lots of money to play with but teams are remaining frugal for the most part and while salaries will continue to increase something like roster expansion makes more sense than throwing money at players. Teams have learned that spending big on players sets new higher ceilings that lead to issues with franchising guys and other things so there are factors limiting the explosion of salaries you are expecting and again meets the actual data suggesting cap space is going up more than the actual cap. More simply put, a team rolling over 50m by choice is more likely to just not bother rolling it all over than they are to all of a sudden go spend an extra 70M the following season.

Got a 10 minute recess.

You can choose not to roll over the cap space, but you cannot ignore the cap floor.
Just by not rolling over the unused cap space, you cannot deduct that part from the cap floor calculation.
So you may as well roll it over and give you max flexibility come 2019/2020, as you may need it.
So as they say, you can run, but you cannot hide.
So either way, you are looking at an 'effective' cap space of $2 billion in 2018.

I am not a 10% guy but focus on the big picture.
This is indeed a big picture issue.
To bring the floor under control, you are spending $ in 2018.
Using the 2017 figure and 2018 figure as the example, you are doubling salaries.
Tonight, I will look into the 2018 free agents - see how many and the quality.
As we all already know, 95% of the franchise QBs and daddies are kept under lock and key.
You may have the Commanders QB and possibly San Diego QB available.
If Romo is available, that would only mean he was no good in 2017, in which case his value drops substantially.

With your argument of GMs refusing to spend to bad value, you are again making my argument.
If they refuse to spend in face of the rising cap and the impending floor reckoning, they are acting irrationally.
If they are acting irrationally because the 2019/2020 should by all reasonable analysis be skyrocketing.
They should spend the money now.
So in fact, they are actively suppressing the free agent salaries.

That was my point all along.
The available 'top' free agents are cheap in 2017 and hopefully relatively cheap in 2018.
If you dont spend now, it will cost a lot more later for the same player, assuming that type of player would even be available.
There are 2 sides to the collective bargaining, and we may see the effect of the other side's bargaining come into effect in the next couple years.

The traditional view of 'value' may lead GMs to make irrational CHEAP decisions.
That is also what leads to an opportunity.
It is hard for me to believe the GMs would do this, but the numbers are the numbers.
People do not always act rationally but there is the opportunity.
Essentially when careful cap management and frugal planning has worked so well for New England for 20 years...

Bye, perhaps until my next break...

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You are correct on 1 matter. I went back and checked. Cap was stagnant was a good number of years, but it did rise before the stagnant period - obviously it had to rise since the cap was instituted in 1994 and was about $34 million.

However, it does appear the cap space is blowing up. For 2017, the total amount of dollars signed in 2017 was $592 million. There are 340 free agents left in 2017, which is about 10 per team. I doubt the Cowboys would sign more than 1 more. To do a random sampling, I choose Buffalo. Looking at their salaries, they have way more than 53 players under contract. At this point in free agency, I doubt they will take on much more player salaries. Let's be 'generous' and assume each team would take on another $5 million free agent expenses. That is $160 million total.
So you are at no more than $750 million total, all in for 2017 free agents. And you are rolling in ~$577 million of cap space into 2018. So 2018 has $1.4 billion + $577 million of cap space free.

If your argument (salaries not going to spike) is correct, the 2018 signing will not exceed $750 million by much, then what is going to happen to the $1.98 billion of cap space. Let's be generous for your argument and say $900 million. You are going to have more than $1 billion of cap space remaining, which will roll into 2019.

I will add to the cap space estimates for 2017 and 2018
2014 end of season cap space for all teams combined: $188 million
2015 end of season cap space for all teams combined: $263 million
2016 end of season cap space for all teams combined: $355 million
2017 end of season cap space: estimated to be ~$577 million
2018 end of season cap space: estimated to be ~$1.1 billion

If that is not the cap structure exploding from too much money, I dont know what is. This is a classic hockey stick - the thing is going to explode.

I will be in a meeting all day so will not be responding until this evening...

You completely ignored the gist of my post to repeat yourself.

Cap space "blowing up" does not matter. Many owners do not care if they have to pay the difference to the NFLPA. The players will still be getting paid their floor at the end of the day. Every few years it resets.

You keep using terms like "blow up," "explode," and the like when in reality it is inconsequential. You think the owners don't account for it or something and are going to go insolvent?

Further, as others have pointed out, you are missing quite a bit. Players for the most part have not signed their various franchise and RFA tenders, the draft and UDFA has to happen and they be signed, and teams are not done with UFA or signing their own players like our own Zach Martin.

 

[Nightman]

If my takeaway of this is correct, there will be oodles of money to be spent. If so, I would rather use some of that surplus money on roster expansion than using it to give players more money simply because you have to spend X amount per season. The old argument ("it will be too costly so the owners would never go for it") against expanding the rosters doesn't hold much water any more. This would be a perfect time to expand rosters, IMO

That is my prediction.......the NFL wants 18 games, expanded Playoffs, ThursNF, foreign travel

The revenues should keep rising .....maybe not as quickly as the past 5 years but steadily

Teams have shown they will cut expensive vets for rookies every time....the money is going to QBs and a few Edge Rushers.....RBs, MLBs, interior DTs, non diva WRs haven't gotten the big raises

I think they have to expand rosters for safety and financial reasons....even a Special Teams squad of 6-8 would be an improvement

 

[Nightman]

and yes TCrawford's deal is commensurate with his production........or Market Value.....maybe even a slight bargain..... when Suh and Cox are getting 17m.....9m is just right

He is at a crossroads though.......his cap hits have been 2.8m, 4.3m and now 10.2m ....he has to step it up to the next next level............after this year he will be due 3/21m but 0m guaranteed

 

[Nightman]

Got a 10 minute recess.

You can choose not to roll over the cap space, but you cannot ignore the cap floor.
Just by not rolling over the unused cap space, you cannot deduct that part from the cap floor calculation.
So you may as well roll it over and give you max flexibility come 2019/2020, as you may need it.
So as they say, you can run, but you cannot hide.
So either way, you are looking at an 'effective' cap space of $2 billion in 2018.

I am not a 10% guy but focus on the big picture.
This is indeed a big picture issue.
To bring the floor under control, you are spending $ in 2018.
Using the 2017 figure and 2018 figure as the example, you are doubling salaries.
Tonight, I will look into the 2018 free agents - see how many and the quality.
As we all already know, 95% of the franchise QBs and daddies are kept under lock and key.
You may have the Commanders QB and possibly San Diego QB available.
If Romo is available, that would only mean he was no good in 2017, in which case his value drops substantially.

With your argument of GMs refusing to spend to bad value, you are again making my argument.
If they refuse to spend in face of the rising cap and the impending floor reckoning, they are acting irrationally.
If they are acting irrationally because the 2019/2020 should by all reasonable analysis be skyrocketing.
They should spend the money now.
So in fact, they are actively suppressing the free agent salaries.

That was my point all along.
The available 'top' free agents are cheap in 2017 and hopefully relatively cheap in 2018.
If you dont spend now, it will cost a lot more later for the same player, assuming that type of player would even be available.
There are 2 sides to the collective bargaining, and we may see the effect of the other side's bargaining come into effect in the next couple years.

The traditional view of 'value' may lead GMs to make irrational CHEAP decisions.
That is also what leads to an opportunity.
It is hard for me to believe the GMs would do this, but the numbers are the numbers.
People do not always act rationally but there is the opportunity.
Essentially when careful cap management and frugal planning has worked so well for New England for 20 years...

Bye, perhaps until my next break...

The only reason we won't see the 2b in cap space is because they won't roll over that much

OAK was the only team flirting with the floor the first time but DAL was only of a handful that were non-compliant after 3 years.....that is sad with 800m in revenues.......... there will be a few more teams that may not make it this time

But the only penalty is to pay the players still on the roster the difference...... so if they are short by 50m or so they just pay each player 1m or stagger it for vets to get more

 

[LandryFan]

That is my prediction.......the NFL wants 18 games, expanded Playoffs, ThursNF, foreign travel

The revenues should keep rising .....maybe not as quickly as the past 5 years but steadily

Teams have shown they will cut expensive vets for rookies every time....the money is going to QBs and a few Edge Rushers.....RBs, MLBs, interior DTs, non diva WRs haven't gotten the big raises

I think they have to expand rosters for safety and financial reasons....even a Special Teams squad of 6-8 would be an improvement

Good point. I wasn't even considering schedule expansion and foreign travel. It makes sense to expand for all kinds of good reasons.

 

[jterrell]

Got a 10 minute recess.

You can choose not to roll over the cap space, but you cannot ignore the cap floor.
Just by not rolling over the unused cap space, you cannot deduct that part from the cap floor calculation.
So you may as well roll it over and give you max flexibility come 2019/2020, as you may need it.
So as they say, you can run, but you cannot hide.
So either way, you are looking at an 'effective' cap space of $2 billion in 2018.

I am not a 10% guy but focus on the big picture.
This is indeed a big picture issue.
To bring the floor under control, you are spending $ in 2018.
Using the 2017 figure and 2018 figure as the example, you are doubling salaries.
Tonight, I will look into the 2018 free agents - see how many and the quality.
As we all already know, 95% of the franchise QBs and daddies are kept under lock and key.
You may have the Commanders QB and possibly San Diego QB available.
If Romo is available, that would only mean he was no good in 2017, in which case his value drops substantially.

With your argument of GMs refusing to spend to bad value, you are again making my argument.
If they refuse to spend in face of the rising cap and the impending floor reckoning, they are acting irrationally.
If they are acting irrationally because the 2019/2020 should by all reasonable analysis be skyrocketing.
They should spend the money now.
So in fact, they are actively suppressing the free agent salaries.

That was my point all along.
The available 'top' free agents are cheap in 2017 and hopefully relatively cheap in 2018.
If you dont spend now, it will cost a lot more later for the same player, assuming that type of player would even be available.
There are 2 sides to the collective bargaining, and we may see the effect of the other side's bargaining come into effect in the next couple years.

The traditional view of 'value' may lead GMs to make irrational CHEAP decisions.
That is also what leads to an opportunity.
It is hard for me to believe the GMs would do this, but the numbers are the numbers.
People do not always act rationally but there is the opportunity.
Essentially when careful cap management and frugal planning has worked so well for New England for 20 years...

Bye, perhaps until my next break...

It is a nice work distraction to be sure.
But again you are making arguments now not backed by the data you championed.
Yes, NFL teams will spend to the floor or pay to the floor.
But the floor is not EXPLODING. Available cap space is.
That's a totally different metric and argument.
No one is arguing salaries won't increase, they are arguing your take literally says they will explode and they won't.
QBs make upwards of 25m now. They might be at 30m on high end in a couple years, that's not explosion but normal raises and growth.

The cap floor is a percentage (89%) of a percentage(51%of revenues).
So it goes up even less than the overall cap which is rising but not exploding. When the cap increases by 10m the floor increases by 9. And most teams are over the floor so induce no additional spend.

If the NFL wants it can add a team... more players to divide that money by; add to roster, or any number of things.

The NFL already exploded. And so did salaries. Now they are on a rising pattern that will depend largely upon continued TV revenue which may or may occur given the struggle of the large media businesses in most areas.

 

[waldoputty]

This is what we see:
we all agree the available cap space is exploding.
we all agree that the floor is 89% of cap space over a 4 year period starting with 2017 and ending 2020.

cap spacing is lagging by a lot - i dont think anyone disagrees here.
since the floor rises with the total salary cap, the floor is rising.
even if teams choose not to roll over part of their cap, the floor rises by the same amount.

It is a nice work distraction to be sure.
But again you are making arguments now not backed by the data you championed.
Yes, NFL teams will spend to the floor or pay to the floor.
But the floor is not EXPLODING. Available cap space is.
That's a totally different metric and argument.
No one is arguing salaries won't increase, they are arguing your take literally says they will explode and they won't.
QBs make upwards of 25m now. They might be at 30m on high end in a couple years, that's not explosion but normal raises and growth.

The cap floor is a percentage (89%) of a percentage(51%of revenues).
So it goes up even less than the overall cap which is rising but not exploding. When the cap increases by 10m the floor increases by 9. And most teams are over the floor so induce no additional spend.

If the NFL wants it can add a team... more players to divide that money by; add to roster, or any number of things.

The NFL already exploded. And so did salaries. Now they are on a rising pattern that will depend largely upon continued TV revenue which may or may occur given the struggle of the large media businesses in most areas.

wow it has been a long day, we had 5 minutes to down soup and bread for lunch and 30 minutes for dinner...

here is my logic.
if your cap space is exploding, that means you are not spending enough.
if you are not spending enough, you are not making the floor.
the numbers in the OP showed that many were 10%-20% below the floor for 2017.
furthermore cap space in 2018 is exploding and it has to mean that you are even further below the floor.

so that would appear to be digging a hole that you have to escape from.
if your cap space is $2B, you must be far far below the floor to get there.
come later in 2019 and 2020, you have to make up the difference.
so even more of the cap has to be spent, and you have a lot of cap space.
if so much money supply, just like an economy, you will have hyper (or bad) inflation.
thus salaries go drastically up.

one way to get a feel is to look at the number of free agents in 2018 and the rough quality (real qbs, daddies etc).
then make a comparison with the 2017 class.
if it is similar # as 2017 and the quality is similar, it would be logical that the expenditures should be similar of not more than 750million in cap space (yes structure could be different but this would give you a sense).
you can then use this to calculate the impact on the floor...

the other thing is to do a bottoms up estimation of cash spent for 2017 plus cash committed in 2018. then use the free agent info to estimate additional floor expenditures. if it looks like another year of 10-20% under the floor for many companies, then obviously you are digging a hole for 2019 and 2020.

anyway, i am exhausted and definitely not doing this today or on my return trip to LA tomorrow.
ugg

 

[waldoputty]

No, the scene won't explode.
Most of these owners got rich by spending no more than they had to for anything.
They will use cap accounting to cover any spending floor concerns.
More teams will Osweiler out and buy contracts imho.

Crawford's deal is a bad one because we are gonna eat it now when we have no real cap space but contracts have risen yearly and will continue to do so just not meteorically.

The good news for Cowboys fans is Jerry will spend because he can add players and turn them into profit by selling their jerseys et al.
So as the cap loosens Dallas will benefit as much as any team in football.
But I doubt Jacksonville and other teams with frugal owners go crazy beyond hitting the salary cap floor.

What you are seeing here is more unused cap space than ever on a yearly basis.
That unused cap space is growing at a rate well beyond the actual salary cap increase.
That just means teams aren't in a hurry to max out their caps ... and I'd posit that is largely for two reasons:
1. Teams have owners who have to write those checks.
2. GMs who spend big in free agency then lose have to explain to owners why they shouldn't be fired.

The only reason we won't see the 2b in cap space is because they won't roll over that much

OAK was the only team flirting with the floor the first time but DAL was only of a handful that were non-compliant after 3 years.....that is sad with 800m in revenues.......... there will be a few more teams that may not make it this time

But the only penalty is to pay the players still on the roster the difference...... so if they are short by 50m or so they just pay each player 1m or stagger it for vets to get more

your only penalty situation is not rational.
why not take that $1m per player hit and invest it on an additional player or 2?

 

[waldoputty]

You completely ignored the gist of my post to repeat yourself.

Cap space "blowing up" does not matter. Many owners do not care if they have to pay the difference to the NFLPA. The players will still be getting paid their floor at the end of the day. Every few years it resets.

You keep using terms like "blow up," "explode," and the like when in reality it is inconsequential. You think the owners don't account for it or something and are going to go insolvent?

Further, as others have pointed out, you are missing quite a bit. Players for the most part have not signed their various franchise and RFA tenders, the draft and UDFA has to happen and they be signed, and teams are not done with UFA or signing their own players like our own Zach Martin.

lol going to ignore the rest of your posts till tomorrow night
it has been a long long long day ...
10 hours of meetings with 4 lawyers, omg

 

[waldoputty]

No, the scene won't explode.
Most of these owners got rich by spending no more than they had to for anything.
They will use cap accounting to cover any spending floor concerns.
More teams will Osweiler out and buy contracts imho.

Crawford's deal is a bad one because we are gonna eat it now when we have no real cap space but contracts have risen yearly and will continue to do so just not meteorically.

The good news for Cowboys fans is Jerry will spend because he can add players and turn them into profit by selling their jerseys et al.
So as the cap loosens Dallas will benefit as much as any team in football.
But I doubt Jacksonville and other teams with frugal owners go crazy beyond hitting the salary cap floor.

What you are seeing here is more unused cap space than ever on a yearly basis.
That unused cap space is growing at a rate well beyond the actual salary cap increase.
That just means teams aren't in a hurry to max out their caps ... and I'd posit that is largely for two reasons:
1. Teams have owners who have to write those checks.
2. GMs who spend big in free agency then lose have to explain to owners why they shouldn't be fired.

here is where my intuition differs
exploding cap space -> teams way under the floor when there were many 10-20% below in 2017 -> even further below the floor -> exploding spending situation in 2019/2020 to catch up with the floor

we could well see contracts that front load, which is essentially raising the salaries (any time you cut due to lack of performance)... furthermore, if many teams do this, then there could be bidding in guaranteed dollars in addition to AAV

but again, some number crunching needed to test it.

when i say explode, i dont mean insolvency.
i mean explosion in expenditures and massive salary inflation.
it would be the opposite of cap hell, but it is not cap heaven either