Are there any players in the draft worth the #4 overall contract?

[Common Sense]

The contract for the #4 pick in this year's draft is projected to be four years, $24.8M, $16.3M signing bonus. Is anyone in the draft worth that contract?

To put it into perspective, Zeke Elliot would command more guaranteed money than Lamar Miller AND cost a top 5 pick on top of it.

Maybe that simply means there's no way a RB ever gets picked that high under this CBA, or maybe it means that veteran RBs are undervalued in the market, or maybe the top-end rookie pay scale is still too high.

I'm sure you can find a similar comparison for Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, etc.

Thoughts?

 

[Direwolf63]

There is a rookie cap. Their rookie contracts really are not the issue, no matter who you take.

It's all about who will help you most over the long term.

{cough}Goff/Wentz{cough}

 

[Common Sense]

I meant to post this in the Draft Zone. Mods, please feel free to move.

 

[DFWJC]

This is why QBs, DEs, LTs, and maybe highly disruptive DTs go that high so much more often than RBs, OGs, centers, etc.

 

[Common Sense]

This is why QBs, DEs, LTs, and maybe highly disruptive DTs go that high so much more often than RBs, OGs, centers, etc.

You could almost argue that this year is a good year to trade down even if you lose pick value, which would be recouped over the next four years in salary cap efficiency -- i.e., you might take someone else's 3 when you should have taken their 2 if it means that you're not stuck paying a $2.5M/year player like a $6M/year player.

I would love to see some economics nerd break down the purchasing power parity between draft picks and cap space.

 

[Common Sense]

Another way to think about it: Imagine there are two basically identical players, same age, at the same position. Player A is a free agent, while Player B is under contract with another team. You could sign Player A, but it will cost you $6M/year for the next four years. Player B has a team-friendly deal at $3M/year for four years, but for whatever reason he has fallen out of favor with the current coaching staff and they are willing to deal him for a 3rd round draft pick. Do you make the trade?

Some might say no if you can get the same player for "free," but it actually costs you an extra $12M over the course of the contract.

The question then is how much monetary value (in salary cap dollars) do draft picks have? And are teams using that as a guide to determine which positions to take or when to trade out of a spot rather than Best Player Available (which we know no one actually does anyway, so let's not pretend that they do)?

 

[reddyuta]

you should be using FA to fill your big holes,i am not sure adding Jags at positions of need is the answer.

 

[vicjagger]

Thoughts?

Nope. None. If we can't trade back, we're screwed.

 

[Stash]

The contract for the #4 pick in this year's draft is projected to be four years, $24.8M, $16.3M signing bonus. Is anyone in the draft worth that contract?

To put it into perspective, Zeke Elliot would command more guaranteed money than Lamar Miller AND cost a top 5 pick on top of it.

Maybe that simply means there's no way a RB ever gets picked that high under this CBA, or maybe it means that veteran RBs are undervalued in the market, or maybe the top-end rookie pay scale is still too high.

I'm sure you can find a similar comparison for Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, etc.

Thoughts?

All the more reason why I advocate drafting Jared Goff. The money that quarterbacks are making now is insane! Even a guy like Osweiler, with plenty of questions, gets paid a boatload.

Rarest commodity in sports.

 

[CF74]

For me it's Goff or trade down...

 

[Nightman]

All the more reason why I advocate drafting Jared Goff. The money that quarterbacks are making now is insane! Even a guy like Osweiler, with plenty of questions, gets paid a boatload.

Rarest commodity in sports.

You could control Goff for 6yrs/70m with the 5th year option and franchise tag.

 

[bayeslife]

Jalen Ramsey is a generational talent. He'd be worth that contract. But I probably wouldn't pick him over Wentz.

 

[DFWJC]

You could almost argue that this year is a good year to trade down even if you lose pick value, which would be recouped over the next four years in salary cap efficiency -- i.e., you might take someone else's 3 when you should have taken their 2 if it means that you're not stuck paying a $2.5M/year player like a $6M/year player.

I would love to see some economics nerd break down the purchasing power parity between draft picks and cap space.

I see what you're saying, but with a dominant LT, CB, two QBs and some pass rushers of various ilk, you should be able to get full value for the 4th pick if you choose to trade down this year.
IF

 

[visionary]

1. Wentz/Goff
2. Trade down

 

[stilltheguru88]

Jalen Ramsey is a generational talent. He'd be worth that contract. But I probably wouldn't pick him over Wentz.

At safety, right?

 

[AzorAhai]

Chase Daniels got what, 3 years 21 million? I'm more than content to give a potential franchise QB/backup QB that 25 million over 4. With the way they are approaching FA, it's even more prudent to start planning for the future(which they won't do of course).

 

[Killerinstinct]

Ramsey is worth it. Look at what the CB's are being paid.