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Man, this conference is just impossible to call. It's an absolute logjam with 13 teams still in with a legitimate chance (if you ignore the quality of their team). If Seattle loses tonight, then thats 9 teams all within a game of each other.
NFC Rankings
1. Chicago (7-1)
2. New Orleans (6-2)
3. NY Giants (6-2)
4. Seattle (4-3)
5. Atlanta (5-3)
6. Minnesota (4-4)
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7. St. Louis (4-4)
8. Philadelphia (4-4)
9. Carolina (4-4)
10. Dallas (4-4)
11. San Francisco (3-5)
12. Green Bay (3-5)
13. Washington (3-5)
OK those rankings may look a bit skew-wiffy because I’ve done them on the tiebreaker. Hence, Dallas is ranked below Carolina because Dallas is automatically out of the playoff hunt because Philadelphia currently owns the H2H, if the season ended today, thus putting Dallas in third place in the division. Minnesota has the best conference record of those 4-4 teams. New Orleans is ahead of the Giants in the seedings thus far because New Orleans is 4-0 against common opponents (TB, PHI, ATL), whereas the Giants are a mere 3-0. But they play each other later on this season so that’ll get cleared up as we go along.
We’ll start with the Bears, who should wrap up HFA throughout the playoffs fairly comfortably. That said, they have a brutal 3 game road trip coming up, going to the Meadowlands twice to play the Giants and Jets, before a trip to Foxboro. I’ll say they go 2-1 on the trip (losing to the Giants, winning an epic with the Pats and easily beating the Jets), before a straightforward final 5 games. I think they’ll win the first 4 before their second stringers lose to Brett Favre in his final match. They’ll wind up 13-3, and they’ll be in prime position.
There are some real logjams, with really 10 teams in with a decent shot at the playoffs (I put the 3-5 teams just for the sake of cheering myself up by listing the Niners in a playoff discussion). Of course, even those 3-5 teams are only one game back but there’s so many teams that they have to hop over, and of course, crucially, none of them are any good, so they’ll find it very hard.
The first logjam is the NFC East. We’ll start at the bottom with the Commanders, and they are simply not going to make the playoffs. Their schedule is absolutely brutal. The only losing team they face the Bucs at RayJay, not an easy game by any means. I’ll give them home wins against Atlanta and Philadelphia, and a possible send off win for Joe Gibbs in their last game against a Giants team that should be division champs by this points. They’ll go 6-10.
Next up are Dallas. I think they are in trouble as they suffered devastating division losses in the last few weeks, losing to Philly, the Giants, and then of course yesterday to Washington in heartbreaking fashion. They have a tough schedule. Their next game, and their final game, should be easy wins, as they go to Arizona and host Detroit. However, in between, I think they’re gonna lose to Indy at home, and at the Giants and at Atlanta. The home thanksgiving game against the Bucs will be tricky but they should have enough, which leaves two pivotal home games, against New Orleans in W14 thanks to a good defensive effort, and Philadelphia in W16. I’m gonna say they’ll win them both, but they will be very close games. That’ll leave Dallas at 9-7, with a 2-4 division record and a 7-5 conference record.
The Eagles have been brutal the last few weeks, blowing a winnable game against the Saints before a heartbreaking loss to the Bucs and an ugly loss to the Jaguars. That said, they should win their next two against Washington and Tennessee, before a likely loss at Indianapolis. However, December’s gonna kill them. It is a brutal run in, with a home game against the Panthers setting up a three consecutive road games, all within the division. I think they’ll lose all three. They finish up with Atlanta at home. Yikes. I’ll say they’ll stay alive against Carolina, but drop the last one to end the year with a four game losing streak and a 7-9 record that will knock them out of the playoffs.
The Giants should win the division, and if things go the way I’ve outlined, then they only need to split their remaining games to do so. But they’re decent and they’ll do better than that. I like them to go 5-3 down the stretch. I have them knocking off Chicago next week, before slumping to defeat against the Jags. We’ve already got them going 2-1 in their remaining division games, so lets look at their other two games, at Carolina and at home to the Saints. They’ll lose to a hungry Panthers squad, but they’ll beat the Saints in a key game that could decide who gets a first round bye. I have them winding up 11-5.
Lets next have a look at the mess out west, which is a straight fight between the Rams and the Seahawks. The Niners could wind up still only one game back if they win at Detroit next week (which I say they will) but they still suck, and they are a 6-10 team at best.
The Rams are slip-sliding down the standings, and have two critical road games coming up, at Seattle and at Carolina. They also have Chicago at home and a road trip to Minnesota on the slate, and frankly, I see them going 1-3 at best here (winning in the Metrodome to end the season). That leaves them SF, ARI, @OAK and WSH as their remaining games, although the 49ers and the Commanders could give them problems with their running games. Not too difficult though. I see them winning all of these games to finish up 9-7, with a conference record of 7-5. They should still be kept interested all the way to the end, but boy do they need to shore up their run defense.
The Seahawks need Matt Hasselbeck quickly. If they do get him back, they have a pretty easy run-in coming up, with Oakland, Green Bay and San Francisco going to Qwest, and road games against the Niners, Bucs and Cardinals. Well they’ll blow at least one of those games, because they aren’t that good and I say it’ll be at San Francisco in Hasselbeck’s return (a bit of ring rust, I think), and I see them resting the starters against the Bucs in a loss, but they’ll win the others and that’ll bump them up to 9 wins. I also have them beating San Diego at home in a tough game. They’ll lose to Denver but it won’t matter, and they’ll be 10-6, with an 8-4 conference record.
I’m gonna look at the North next. The Vikings are a strange one. Yesterday’s loss was devastating. With a win over the 49ers, they would have owned a 5-1 record in the Conference, and a 5-3 record overall, and I think they would have got in. Their remaining schedule is easy, with two games against Green Bay, trips to Arizona, Miami and Detroit and home games against the Jets and the Rams. They are all games where the Vikes could well be favoured. Yet a defeat next week at home to Green Bay and another stinkeroo from Brad Johnson will see calls for the introduction of Brooks Bollinger or Tarvaris Jackson, and neither of them look much use either. Still, their defense will keep them in plenty of games. I see losses at Green Bay and Chicago, and a likely win against Arizona. That’s a 5-6 record with the following games left, vs Green Bay (W10) @Miami (W11), @Detroit (W14), vs NY Jets (W15), vs St. Louis (W17). I say they beat Green Bay but lose to Miami before beating the Cards at home. That leaves them at 6-6 going into the Detroit game, which I think will be the killer. They will lose that one, before bouncing back to beat the Jets, before having it all ended with a loss at Lambeau in Week 16. They’ll wind up 7-9. But really, they could easily go 10-6 with that schedule, I just think their QB situation could be problematic. That 49ers loss was a killer.
The Packers won’t have a chance. They will lose their next three games at Minnesota, at home to New England, and at Seattle, and that’ll be them at 3-8 and, more to the point, done. But watch for a late season surge as Favre’s career winds down as they have 5 winnable games (if the Bears field their second string the finale).
The NFC South is what remains, and this is very tough to call. Again, we’ll start with the team with the worse record of the three, and that’s Carolina, who are at 4-4 after suffering a devastating loss to Dallas at home, a defeat that’s really jeopardised their playoff future. With Tampa Bay and St. Louis at home coming up next, I think that should be two wins, but the Rams game looks big. Then they have two tricky road games in the NFC East, going to Washington and Philadelphia. I say they split those before a big home against the Giants, which I have chalked up as a win. That will put them at 8-5 going into a tough stretch run. First up are the Steelers at home, a game that should be a win, but the Steelers should be much better than 2-6, and look set to play spoiler, IMO, especially if Big Ben is on the bench by this point. I see them blowing that game, putting them at 8-6 going into their final two games, road trips to Atlanta and New Orleans. Well…we’ll look at these a little bit later.
Atlanta is just so difficult to predict from week to week. This is the same team that dismantled Carolina in Charlotte, and won an epic game at Cincinnati, but also got destroyed by the Lions and hammered at home by an admittedly decent Giants team. You’ve got to think they’ll easily beat Cleveland at home, and probably lose at Baltimore, but would be honestly be surprised if the opposite happens? Whatever, they’ll split those two to go to 6-4 before a vital home game against New Orleans. I like them to win that one, but then they’ll follow it up with a stinker loss in Washington. A trip to RayJay is always one the Falcons struggle with, and I’ll predict the upset there as well, before a home win against Dallas. Like Carolina, they’ll be 8-6 going into their big week 16 showdown with the Panthers.
Now then, the Saints. Their next three home games look winnable, and I’ll say they beat Cincy, the 49ers and Washington in the dome. But, by contrast, they’ll lose away to Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Dallas. That’ll put them at 9-5 going into the last two weeks.
In week 16, Atlanta hosts Carolina and New Orleans takes on the Giants in New York. The Saints will lose to put them at 9-6, and I say Atlanta beats Carolina, as per usual, to also go 9-6, with the Panthers at 8-7.
In week 17, Atlanta will go to Philadelphia and win against a slumping Eagles squad, while the Saints will knock out the Panthers once and for all behind a jacked Superdome crowd. I just don’t like the way the Panthers inconsistency. They’ve just lost two bad ones and have a tough run in, and those last two will be the death of them. Meanwhile, New Orleans and Atlanta will finish at 10-6. They’ll both have a 4-2 division record, but Atlanta will have the edge on common opponents, with a 5-3 record against the NFC East/AFC North, compared to the Saints 4-4 record. That’ll hand Atlanta the NFC South, but they’ll be 4th seed due to Seattle having the Conference record tiebreaker (8-4 to 7-5).
Overall Standings
1. Chicago (13-3)
2. NY Giants (11-5)
3. Seattle (10-6)
4. Atlanta (10-6)
5. New Orleans (10-6)
6. Dallas (9-7)
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7. St. Louis (9-7)
8. Carolina (8-8)
9. Philadelphia (7-9)
10. Minnesota (7-9)
The Rams/Cowboys battle comes down to common opponents with both tied at 7-5 in conference record. They both beat the Lions, the Rams beat the Cards twice, while the Cowboys will beat them once, the Rams beat the Commanders while the Pokes split them, the Rams lost to the Panthers while the Pokes beat them. That means they are both 4-1 against common opponents. That means things go down to the strength of victory tiebreaker, which is point differential by any other name. The Cowboys already have a huge advantage so I’ll take them to nick that 6th spot. Tough break.
GAMES TO WATCH
Week 10
Green Bay at Minnesota
Chicago at NY Giants (SNF)
New Orleans at Pittsburgh
Week 11
Atlanta at Baltimore
St. Louis at Carolina
Cincinnati at New Orleans
Seattle at San Francisco
NY Giants at Jacksonville (MNF)
Week 12
Chicago at New England
New Orleans at Atlanta
Carolina at Washington
Week 13
Atlanta at Washington
Dallas at NY Giants
Carolina at Philadelphia (MNF)
Minnesota at Chicago
Week 14
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Minnesota at Detroit
New Orleans at Dallas
NY Giants at Carolina
Chicago at St. Louis (MNF)
Week 15
Dallas at Atlanta (NFLN)
Philadelphia at NY Giants
NY Jets at Minnesota
Week 16
Minnesota at Green Bay (NFLN)
Carolina at Atlanta
New Orleans at NY Giants
Philadelphia at Dallas (NBC, Xmas Day)
Week 17
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Carolina at New Orleans
St. Louis at Minnesota
As with the AFC, Week 14 just looks delicious with some massive games on there, particularly NYG@CAR and NO@DAL. Some good nationally televised games lined up already with tons for NBC to choose from. The NFC is just wide open because of how mediocre it is, and it’s going to be agonising for those teams going down the stretch.
