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Don't trust anyone during the pre-draft process
By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
(Archive)
Updated: April 8, 2008
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Call it lying, call it smoke screening, call it whatever you want, but at this time of year coaches and personnel officials simply should not be trusted. There is no shortage of information leaks regarding the plans teams are making, but the trick is navigating the leaked information properly.
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals have so forcefully spread the news of their trip to Norman, Okla., on Wednesday for WR Malcolm Kelly's belated workout that they would have been better off taking out a full-page ad in a national paper. According to multiple sources, Cincinnati will send a sizable contingent -- including offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski, wide receivers coach Mike Sheppard and several members of its personnel department -- to witness Kelly in his first workout for coaches and scouts. Kelly, who is reportedly fully recovered from the quadriceps injury that prevented him from working out earlier, will then travel back to Cincinnati with team officials for a more extensive physical and mental examination.
The team clearly has reasons to evaluate Kelly as a potential target with the No. 9 overall pick with the troubled Chris Henry having been released and Chad Johnson seemingly becoming more disgruntled by the day. However, there is also an ulterior motive. Cincinnati is angling to increase potential trade interest in the ninth pick. The Bengals have a big need at defensive tackle, but realize the odds are slim that LSU's Glenn Dorsey or USC's Sedrick Ellis will fall that far.
If they do get shut out of the defensive tackle market, then Plan B is to trade back and take advantage of a deep 2008 class by stockpiling picks in later rounds. The Buffalo Bills, who own pick No. 11, have long been rumored to have interest in Kelly, and by creating such a buzz surrounding Kelly's workout, Cincinnati hopes to entice a trade from the Bills or another team.
• Oregon QB Dennis Dixon held a similar individual workout in Eugene, Ore., Friday, but drew far less attention from NFL brass. In fact, only eight teams sent representatives to the condensed session. Dixon displayed good touch and accuracy during a half-hour passing drill session, and he also showed good mobility considering he suffered a torn ACL only five months ago. While Dixon claims to have recently run a 40-yard dash in the 4.6-second range recently, he did not run or jump for scouts on hand.
His rehabilitation is also reportedly ahead of schedule, which is promising news for teams considering Dixon as a developmental project. Still, his lack of ideal bulk and strength -- in addition to concerns regarding his durability, inconsistency and the shotgun-spread scheme he ran at Oregon -- should cast enough doubt for teams to pass on Dixon's raw talent during the first four rounds. Pittsburgh is among the interested teams, though, and the Steelers brought Dixon in for a private workout on Tuesday.
• The official 2008 pro day schedule has finally wrapped, and with the exception of private visits like Dixon's and Kelly's, NFL teams have all the information they will use to formulate their boards during upcoming pre-draft meetings. While there's only so much a player can do during an on-campus workout to help or hurt his draft stock, it never hurts to have momentum on your side heading into draft weekend. So here is a look at five prospects with momentum on their side and five who are taking a tumble down draft boards:
On the rise
1. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU -- The draft process is grueling for all prospects, but Dorsey's path has proven to be especially arduous. The passing of his grandmother, combined with the Jan. 7 BCS title game pushing back the beginning of his training process, prevented Dorsey from taking part in the workout portion of the combine. Speculation then began to spread regarding a possibly lingering 2006 stress fracture injury that could have sent Dorsey's draft stock free-falling.
Since then, though, many teams have cleared Dorsey medically and his solid all-around showing at LSU's pro day helped ease any concerns regarding a 2007 knee injury. Dorsey has finally come full circle and is once again in the elite tier of talent for 2008.
Draft projection: Best case is the Rams at No. 2 overall, worst case is the Chiefs at No. 5. The Falcons, who own the third pick, seemingly have the greatest interest in Dorsey at this point while the Raiders would consider him with the fourth pick as well.
2. Branden Albert, G/OT, Virginia -- The more film teams watch of Albert, the more they seem to think he can play left tackle in the NFL. The early-entry prospect stood on his solid workout times from the combine but really made an impression on coaches and scouts with his nimble feet and natural balance during offensive line drills at Virginia's pro day.
Draft projection: I still think Albert projects better at guard in the NFL, which explains my mid-first-round grade. However, a few teams reportedly view him as the second-best left tackle in this class behind Michigan's Jake Long and there is now speculation that Albert could sneak into the top 10 overall.
3. Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State -- The Sun Belt's all-time career tackles leader has shot up many draft boards by answering questions regarding his speed and athleticism during the postseason process. Johnson (5-foot-11⅞, 202 pounds) turned in one of the most impressive showings among the defensive backs at the combine and built on that momentum with a 39-inch vertical leap, 10-foot-8 broad jump and smooth position-specific workout during Arkansas State's on-campus workout. In a weak safety class, Johnson has value on Day 1.
Draft projection: Johnson should be among the top two safeties selected -- competing with Kenny Phillips of Miami but ahead of Dejuan Morgan of NC State -- and most likely comes off the board in the second round.
4. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State -- Nelson emerged as one of the most productive pass-catchers in college football last season with 1,606 yards and 11 scores on 122 receptions. While his 40-yard dash time of 4.51 doesn't do much for his cause, Nelson has shown fluid hips for his size, smooth route-running skills and reliable hands throughout the postseason. The more teams study his improvement as a senior the more infatuated they become with his pro potential.
Draft projection: It is highly unlikely that Nelson will last until Day 2.
5. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia -- Slaton's outstanding showing last month at West Virginia's pro day was timely, to say the least. The diminutive, oft-injured back is likely to max out as a versatile scat back and return man in the NFL, but excellent showings in the 40 (4.42 and 4.45), vertical jump (35 inches), short shuttle (4.26 seconds) and three-cone drill (6.75 seconds) ease concerns about injuries costing him a step.
Draft projection: Despite a deep crop of running backs, Slaton should come off the board early on Day 2 (third or fourth round) and land with a team in search of a complementary weapon in its running game.
On the slide
1. DE Phillip Merling, Clemson -- Once considered a potential top-10 pick, Merling has seen his stock drop considerably during the draft process. The biggest issue is a recently discovered sports hernia injury which required surgery and prevents him from working out for NFL teams prior to draft weekend. As an early-entry prospect, Merling becomes an even greater risk since NFL teams are already working with limited time and data.
Draft projection: Merling is still a first-rounder but could slip to the bottom portion of the round.
2. QB Brian Brohm, Louisville -- Scouts complained that Brohm avoided some of the tougher throws they wanted to see during his uninspiring on-campus workout last month. Some teams love his consistency and think he can thrive with the proper supporting cast in the NFL, while others simply think Brohm is too limited physically.
Draft projection: Likely to come off the board early in Round 2. Brohm is competing with Chad Henne (Michigan) and Joe Flacco (Delaware) to be the second quarterback selected behind Matt Ryan (Boston College).
3. WR Early Doucet, LSU -- Doucet's pedestrian 40 times (4.56 and 4.68) at LSU's pro day verified the lack of deep speed he shows on film.
Draft projection: Among the top eight receivers selected, likely in the early to mid-second round.
4. OT Sam Baker, USC -- Baker battled injuries during a disappointing senior season and the pre-draft process hasn't gone any better. Baker's lack of explosiveness was exposed at the Senior Bowl and he was equally underwhelming at USC's pro day, where he looked sluggish in position-specific drills and ran times of 5.41 and 5.54 in the 40.
Draft projection: Should be the sixth offensive lineman selected but no longer projects as a first-round pick.
5. RB Mike Hart, Michigan -- As expected, Hart has not fared well during the pre-draft process. Declining a Senior Bowl invitation surprised scouts because the week of practice and the game itself would have been a better opportunity to showcase his skills than any workout session. Most recently, Hart opted not to run a 40 at Michigan's pro day, which means he's sticking with combine results of 4.69 and 4.72. He also had a few uncharacteristic drops during receiving drills on campus.
Draft projection: Best-case scenario is late third round, but a deep running back class does not help Hart's cause.
Todd McShay is the director of college football scouting for Scouts Inc. He has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998.
By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
(Archive)
Updated: April 8, 2008
Comment
Call it lying, call it smoke screening, call it whatever you want, but at this time of year coaches and personnel officials simply should not be trusted. There is no shortage of information leaks regarding the plans teams are making, but the trick is navigating the leaked information properly.
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals have so forcefully spread the news of their trip to Norman, Okla., on Wednesday for WR Malcolm Kelly's belated workout that they would have been better off taking out a full-page ad in a national paper. According to multiple sources, Cincinnati will send a sizable contingent -- including offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski, wide receivers coach Mike Sheppard and several members of its personnel department -- to witness Kelly in his first workout for coaches and scouts. Kelly, who is reportedly fully recovered from the quadriceps injury that prevented him from working out earlier, will then travel back to Cincinnati with team officials for a more extensive physical and mental examination.
The team clearly has reasons to evaluate Kelly as a potential target with the No. 9 overall pick with the troubled Chris Henry having been released and Chad Johnson seemingly becoming more disgruntled by the day. However, there is also an ulterior motive. Cincinnati is angling to increase potential trade interest in the ninth pick. The Bengals have a big need at defensive tackle, but realize the odds are slim that LSU's Glenn Dorsey or USC's Sedrick Ellis will fall that far.
If they do get shut out of the defensive tackle market, then Plan B is to trade back and take advantage of a deep 2008 class by stockpiling picks in later rounds. The Buffalo Bills, who own pick No. 11, have long been rumored to have interest in Kelly, and by creating such a buzz surrounding Kelly's workout, Cincinnati hopes to entice a trade from the Bills or another team.
• Oregon QB Dennis Dixon held a similar individual workout in Eugene, Ore., Friday, but drew far less attention from NFL brass. In fact, only eight teams sent representatives to the condensed session. Dixon displayed good touch and accuracy during a half-hour passing drill session, and he also showed good mobility considering he suffered a torn ACL only five months ago. While Dixon claims to have recently run a 40-yard dash in the 4.6-second range recently, he did not run or jump for scouts on hand.
His rehabilitation is also reportedly ahead of schedule, which is promising news for teams considering Dixon as a developmental project. Still, his lack of ideal bulk and strength -- in addition to concerns regarding his durability, inconsistency and the shotgun-spread scheme he ran at Oregon -- should cast enough doubt for teams to pass on Dixon's raw talent during the first four rounds. Pittsburgh is among the interested teams, though, and the Steelers brought Dixon in for a private workout on Tuesday.
• The official 2008 pro day schedule has finally wrapped, and with the exception of private visits like Dixon's and Kelly's, NFL teams have all the information they will use to formulate their boards during upcoming pre-draft meetings. While there's only so much a player can do during an on-campus workout to help or hurt his draft stock, it never hurts to have momentum on your side heading into draft weekend. So here is a look at five prospects with momentum on their side and five who are taking a tumble down draft boards:
On the rise
1. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU -- The draft process is grueling for all prospects, but Dorsey's path has proven to be especially arduous. The passing of his grandmother, combined with the Jan. 7 BCS title game pushing back the beginning of his training process, prevented Dorsey from taking part in the workout portion of the combine. Speculation then began to spread regarding a possibly lingering 2006 stress fracture injury that could have sent Dorsey's draft stock free-falling.
Since then, though, many teams have cleared Dorsey medically and his solid all-around showing at LSU's pro day helped ease any concerns regarding a 2007 knee injury. Dorsey has finally come full circle and is once again in the elite tier of talent for 2008.
Draft projection: Best case is the Rams at No. 2 overall, worst case is the Chiefs at No. 5. The Falcons, who own the third pick, seemingly have the greatest interest in Dorsey at this point while the Raiders would consider him with the fourth pick as well.
2. Branden Albert, G/OT, Virginia -- The more film teams watch of Albert, the more they seem to think he can play left tackle in the NFL. The early-entry prospect stood on his solid workout times from the combine but really made an impression on coaches and scouts with his nimble feet and natural balance during offensive line drills at Virginia's pro day.
Draft projection: I still think Albert projects better at guard in the NFL, which explains my mid-first-round grade. However, a few teams reportedly view him as the second-best left tackle in this class behind Michigan's Jake Long and there is now speculation that Albert could sneak into the top 10 overall.
3. Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State -- The Sun Belt's all-time career tackles leader has shot up many draft boards by answering questions regarding his speed and athleticism during the postseason process. Johnson (5-foot-11⅞, 202 pounds) turned in one of the most impressive showings among the defensive backs at the combine and built on that momentum with a 39-inch vertical leap, 10-foot-8 broad jump and smooth position-specific workout during Arkansas State's on-campus workout. In a weak safety class, Johnson has value on Day 1.
Draft projection: Johnson should be among the top two safeties selected -- competing with Kenny Phillips of Miami but ahead of Dejuan Morgan of NC State -- and most likely comes off the board in the second round.
4. Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State -- Nelson emerged as one of the most productive pass-catchers in college football last season with 1,606 yards and 11 scores on 122 receptions. While his 40-yard dash time of 4.51 doesn't do much for his cause, Nelson has shown fluid hips for his size, smooth route-running skills and reliable hands throughout the postseason. The more teams study his improvement as a senior the more infatuated they become with his pro potential.
Draft projection: It is highly unlikely that Nelson will last until Day 2.
5. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia -- Slaton's outstanding showing last month at West Virginia's pro day was timely, to say the least. The diminutive, oft-injured back is likely to max out as a versatile scat back and return man in the NFL, but excellent showings in the 40 (4.42 and 4.45), vertical jump (35 inches), short shuttle (4.26 seconds) and three-cone drill (6.75 seconds) ease concerns about injuries costing him a step.
Draft projection: Despite a deep crop of running backs, Slaton should come off the board early on Day 2 (third or fourth round) and land with a team in search of a complementary weapon in its running game.
On the slide
1. DE Phillip Merling, Clemson -- Once considered a potential top-10 pick, Merling has seen his stock drop considerably during the draft process. The biggest issue is a recently discovered sports hernia injury which required surgery and prevents him from working out for NFL teams prior to draft weekend. As an early-entry prospect, Merling becomes an even greater risk since NFL teams are already working with limited time and data.
Draft projection: Merling is still a first-rounder but could slip to the bottom portion of the round.
2. QB Brian Brohm, Louisville -- Scouts complained that Brohm avoided some of the tougher throws they wanted to see during his uninspiring on-campus workout last month. Some teams love his consistency and think he can thrive with the proper supporting cast in the NFL, while others simply think Brohm is too limited physically.
Draft projection: Likely to come off the board early in Round 2. Brohm is competing with Chad Henne (Michigan) and Joe Flacco (Delaware) to be the second quarterback selected behind Matt Ryan (Boston College).
3. WR Early Doucet, LSU -- Doucet's pedestrian 40 times (4.56 and 4.68) at LSU's pro day verified the lack of deep speed he shows on film.
Draft projection: Among the top eight receivers selected, likely in the early to mid-second round.
4. OT Sam Baker, USC -- Baker battled injuries during a disappointing senior season and the pre-draft process hasn't gone any better. Baker's lack of explosiveness was exposed at the Senior Bowl and he was equally underwhelming at USC's pro day, where he looked sluggish in position-specific drills and ran times of 5.41 and 5.54 in the 40.
Draft projection: Should be the sixth offensive lineman selected but no longer projects as a first-round pick.
5. RB Mike Hart, Michigan -- As expected, Hart has not fared well during the pre-draft process. Declining a Senior Bowl invitation surprised scouts because the week of practice and the game itself would have been a better opportunity to showcase his skills than any workout session. Most recently, Hart opted not to run a 40 at Michigan's pro day, which means he's sticking with combine results of 4.69 and 4.72. He also had a few uncharacteristic drops during receiving drills on campus.
Draft projection: Best-case scenario is late third round, but a deep running back class does not help Hart's cause.
Todd McShay is the director of college football scouting for Scouts Inc. He has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998.
