Doomsday101
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The scout stood alone in the back of the bustling war room, eyes fixed on the floor, praying for divine intervention. His team was on the clock, and the vice president of football operations, head coach and virtually everyone else in the room was sold on which ex-collegiate standout to take with the sixth overall pick in the draft. Wowed by this running back's speed and flashy moves, one assistant coach had written in a predraft summary, "He's a can't-miss superstar who's got Hall of Fame written all over him."
Though others inside and outside of the organization felt similarly, this particular scout had a completely different take. Based on his extensive film study, he questioned the player's speed on grass and noticed a disturbing trend -- the better the competition, the worse the back seemed to play. There was also a history of violence and misbehavior that would have made even a bail bondsman cringe. This player, the scout believed, would be far more trouble than he was worth.
Though the scout had voiced his opinions in meetings leading up to the draft, he realized he was fighting a losing battle. As a team executive phoned a colleague in New York to make the pick official, the scout was so upset that he nearly walked out of the room and went home.
If they pick this guy, he thought to himself, we'll all be fired.
Three years later, the same scout wrote a report on a prominent college quarterback being considered as the top overall pick, drawing this conclusion after watching seven games on film: "This guy's got everything -- movement, quick decision-making, the ability to get it down the field. I'd take him No. 1 in a minute."
That the two players in question were Lawrence Phillips, a disaster on and off the field after being picked by the St. Louis Rams in 1996, and Tim Couch, who washed out after going first overall to the Cleveland Browns in '99, speaks to the inexact science of NFL talent evaluation. These kinds of cautionary tales -- and misses-in-reverse like undrafted stars Antonio Gates, Rod Smith and Adewale Ogunleye -- should at least give pause to those experts, paid or otherwise, who believe they can cite a prospect's throwing motion or 40-yard-dash time as a basis for NFL success.
Our advice for this weekend, as two networks provide cackle-to-cackle coverage of the league's 71st annual player selection gathering, is not to take the analysts' panting proclamations of impending boom or bust too literally. For as the men doing the actual drafting understand all too well, their degree of accuracy in such endeavors puts them a lot closer to the passing numbers of Ryan Leaf (San Diego Chargers, No. 2 overall, 1998) than it does to those of Tom Brady (New England Patriots, sixth round, 2000).
"We all know this is a guessing game," says Houston Texans general manager Charley Casserly, whose team has the No. 1 overall selection. "It's humans evaluating humans, and you know what? We're not infallible, and they're not infallible either. If there's one thing you can say about those of us who do this for a living, it's that we know we don't know."
Through experience, Casserly and some of the league's other highly regarded draft-day decision-makers -- including Indianapolis Colts president Bill Polian, Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome, Atlanta Falcons president Rich McKay, Seattle Seahawks president of football operations Tim Ruskell and Pittsburgh Steelers director of football operations Kevin Colbert -- have learned what traps to try to avoid. Among the more common ones:
• Beware of the fast-riser. This is otherwise known as the Mike Mamula Factor, in honor of the Boston College defensive end whose impressive workouts at the 1995 Scouting Combine shot him up draft boards. He went seventh overall to the Philadelphia Eagles and spent six pedestrian seasons with the team. "After the combine, everybody went back and watched the same tapes of his college games, but this time we started evaluating them differently," McKay says. "It's better to ignore those fast-risers and trust your scouts' initial impressions, but with the frenzy that's created, it's hard to let it go."
• Don't let need skew your perceptions. Says Casserly, "Be careful not to push guys up your board because they play a position where you're thin."
• Evaluate the evaluators. Area scouts spend months gathering information on potential draftees, learning about their character and motivation levels, but some sources are more reliable than others. Forming trustworthy relationships is crucial. Further, says Cincinnati Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, "Because of the increase in media outlets, what used to be private has become public. Some colleges have really tightened up and pulled back; it's making it harder for us to learn about these kids." Underclassmen, in particular, are a problem, says one AFC scout, since schools are reticent to discuss a non-senior until he officially declares for the draft, putting pro teams months behind in terms of due diligence.
• Keep the God complex under control. When scouts become enamored of workout warriors whose college production was lacking or whose motivation appeared suspect, egotistical coaches often compound the problem by assuming they can cure all ills. "He hasn't been disciplined," a coach will proclaim. "He wasn't coached right." Says McKay, "I've heard that statement so many times, and you know what? I don't think I want to buy that. If there's a common denominator between most of the guys who make it big in the NFL, it's that they were really good college players who love the game."
It sounds so blessedly simple, yet this weekend in NFL facilities across the land -- they don't call them war rooms for nothing -- emotional arguments will rage amid the pressure-packed backdrop of a ticking clock and a nation of instant second-guessers. The people doing the picking know the distasteful truth: There is no such thing as a can't-miss prospect, but there are plenty of guys who can get them all fired.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/michael_silver/04/26/draft.essay/index.html
Though others inside and outside of the organization felt similarly, this particular scout had a completely different take. Based on his extensive film study, he questioned the player's speed on grass and noticed a disturbing trend -- the better the competition, the worse the back seemed to play. There was also a history of violence and misbehavior that would have made even a bail bondsman cringe. This player, the scout believed, would be far more trouble than he was worth.
Though the scout had voiced his opinions in meetings leading up to the draft, he realized he was fighting a losing battle. As a team executive phoned a colleague in New York to make the pick official, the scout was so upset that he nearly walked out of the room and went home.
If they pick this guy, he thought to himself, we'll all be fired.
Three years later, the same scout wrote a report on a prominent college quarterback being considered as the top overall pick, drawing this conclusion after watching seven games on film: "This guy's got everything -- movement, quick decision-making, the ability to get it down the field. I'd take him No. 1 in a minute."
That the two players in question were Lawrence Phillips, a disaster on and off the field after being picked by the St. Louis Rams in 1996, and Tim Couch, who washed out after going first overall to the Cleveland Browns in '99, speaks to the inexact science of NFL talent evaluation. These kinds of cautionary tales -- and misses-in-reverse like undrafted stars Antonio Gates, Rod Smith and Adewale Ogunleye -- should at least give pause to those experts, paid or otherwise, who believe they can cite a prospect's throwing motion or 40-yard-dash time as a basis for NFL success.
Our advice for this weekend, as two networks provide cackle-to-cackle coverage of the league's 71st annual player selection gathering, is not to take the analysts' panting proclamations of impending boom or bust too literally. For as the men doing the actual drafting understand all too well, their degree of accuracy in such endeavors puts them a lot closer to the passing numbers of Ryan Leaf (San Diego Chargers, No. 2 overall, 1998) than it does to those of Tom Brady (New England Patriots, sixth round, 2000).
"We all know this is a guessing game," says Houston Texans general manager Charley Casserly, whose team has the No. 1 overall selection. "It's humans evaluating humans, and you know what? We're not infallible, and they're not infallible either. If there's one thing you can say about those of us who do this for a living, it's that we know we don't know."
Through experience, Casserly and some of the league's other highly regarded draft-day decision-makers -- including Indianapolis Colts president Bill Polian, Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome, Atlanta Falcons president Rich McKay, Seattle Seahawks president of football operations Tim Ruskell and Pittsburgh Steelers director of football operations Kevin Colbert -- have learned what traps to try to avoid. Among the more common ones:
• Beware of the fast-riser. This is otherwise known as the Mike Mamula Factor, in honor of the Boston College defensive end whose impressive workouts at the 1995 Scouting Combine shot him up draft boards. He went seventh overall to the Philadelphia Eagles and spent six pedestrian seasons with the team. "After the combine, everybody went back and watched the same tapes of his college games, but this time we started evaluating them differently," McKay says. "It's better to ignore those fast-risers and trust your scouts' initial impressions, but with the frenzy that's created, it's hard to let it go."
• Don't let need skew your perceptions. Says Casserly, "Be careful not to push guys up your board because they play a position where you're thin."
• Evaluate the evaluators. Area scouts spend months gathering information on potential draftees, learning about their character and motivation levels, but some sources are more reliable than others. Forming trustworthy relationships is crucial. Further, says Cincinnati Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, "Because of the increase in media outlets, what used to be private has become public. Some colleges have really tightened up and pulled back; it's making it harder for us to learn about these kids." Underclassmen, in particular, are a problem, says one AFC scout, since schools are reticent to discuss a non-senior until he officially declares for the draft, putting pro teams months behind in terms of due diligence.
• Keep the God complex under control. When scouts become enamored of workout warriors whose college production was lacking or whose motivation appeared suspect, egotistical coaches often compound the problem by assuming they can cure all ills. "He hasn't been disciplined," a coach will proclaim. "He wasn't coached right." Says McKay, "I've heard that statement so many times, and you know what? I don't think I want to buy that. If there's a common denominator between most of the guys who make it big in the NFL, it's that they were really good college players who love the game."
It sounds so blessedly simple, yet this weekend in NFL facilities across the land -- they don't call them war rooms for nothing -- emotional arguments will rage amid the pressure-packed backdrop of a ticking clock and a nation of instant second-guessers. The people doing the picking know the distasteful truth: There is no such thing as a can't-miss prospect, but there are plenty of guys who can get them all fired.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/michael_silver/04/26/draft.essay/index.html
quarterback. (San Francisco, are you listening hahahaha)