Article: The way the Patriots draft

Angus

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Draft pickup artists: Patriots use smooth moves to select talent
By John Tomase
Boston Herald Sports Writer
Tuesday, April 10, 2007 - Updated: 05:36 AM EST

The Patriots [team stats] routinely confound the draft experts, who examine a need, project players to fill that need, and are then stunned when the Patriots ignore them.

Few expected them to use first-round picks to take a running back last year (Laurence Maroney [stats]), a guard in 2005 (Logan Mankins [stats]), or their second tight end in three years in 2004 (Ben Watson [stats]).

This year the belief is they’re targeting a linebacker with one of their two first-round picks because of age and a lack of depth at the position. Never mind that the Pats never have selected a linebacker on the first day, let alone in the first round, since Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli started calling the shots. The Pats need a linebacker, and a linebacker - whether it’s Mississippi’s Patrick Willis or Miami’s undersized Jon Beason - it shall be.

That actually may prove to be the case, since the Patriots are, after all, unpredictable. But their history says don’t bet on it.
Anyway, here’s a general look at some of the misconceptions and realities of the Pats’ draft philosophy, as gleaned from the seven drafts since Belichick arrived in 2000, as well as past interviews with the decision makers.

# The Patriots won’t overdraft for intangibles.

There’s a rush to label someone a “Patriots kind of player” because they’re smart and work hard and assume the Pats will jump in the first round.

Their first-round picks have turned out to be high-character guys (Richard Seymour [stats], Daniel Graham [stats], Ty Warren [stats], Vince Wilfork [stats]), but first and foremost, they can play. The idea of the Patriots taking anything other than an A-1 athlete in the first round is not supported by their history.

Even Mankins, considered a reach in 2005, has turned out to be one of the most unique athletes on the team, with an ability to remain equally as aggressive in pass blocking as run blocking. He’s already a borderline All-Pro.

# The time to gamble is the second round.

The cliche is that teams take a mid-round flyer on so-and-so, but the Patriots actually do most of their gambling in Round 2. Sometimes it pays off, like when they grabbed undersized Louisville wideout Deion Branch in 2002 or ignored a subpar senior season from Illinois cornerback Eugene Wilson in 2003.

Sometimes it flames out miserably, like when they rolled the dice on Texas A&M burner Bethel Johnson in 2003 or LSU behemoth Marquise Hill in 2004. The jury is still out on Chad Jackson, but he has all the tools to end up more like Branch than Johnson.

The Patriots are also aggressive here with players they believe fit their system but slid out of the first round. They traded up two spots to get tackle Matt Light [stats] in 2001, five spots each for Wilson and Johnson in 2003, and 16 spots for Jackson last year.

# They do not value defense over offense.

Four of their seven first-round picks during the Belichick Era have been on offense. Same goes for 12 of their 20 picks in the top three rounds. They didn’t select a defensive player until the sixth round last year.

And yet the perception remains that Belichick’s history as a defensive mastermind means all things being equal, he’ll go defense in the draft. In our roundup of mock drafts (see graphic), all but four of the 20 picks were on defense.

Considering all the offense the Pats added through free agency and trades this winter (three WRs, RB, TE), as well as the seven picks they used on offense and special teams last year, it’s a logical assumption.

But if we’ve learned anything, it’s to assume nothing.

# The Patriots [team stats] do not draft for need.

This one should be obvious by now. Belichick and Pioli have mastered the art of the long view - a player who can help is a player who can help, regardless of position. Even if there’s no spot for him now, there will be eventually.

No one should be surprised if they take a tight end or a tackle, two positions that appear reasonably well stocked, over say, a safety and a linebacker, two positions that do not.
If the Pats had drafted for need, they wouldn’t have Watson or Mankins now.

# Never overlook the college coaching connections.

There’s a reason Belichick likes Florida coach Urban Meyer - the two have developed enough of a relationship that Meyer knows the kind of players Belichick seeks.

Belichick and Pioli have very specific traits in mind when they draft for their system. It makes all the sense in the world that they’d want to deal with coaches who understand those traits - hence picks either from schools coached by Belichick disciples including LSU (Nick Saban) or Fresno State (Pat Hill), or situations like Florida’s, where Belichick has gotten to know Meyer.

The Patriots are on the leading edge when it comes to this approach, because it makes little sense to ask a coach if a potential draftee can play in the Patriots system if the coach doesn’t understand that system.

# The Patriots like drafting at the bottom of the first round.

If there’s one quick way to hamstring a franchises’s finances, it’s by paying a top-10 pick like an established veteran superstar, and then watching him underperform.

The Pats have drafted quite well in the 20s and below without having to deal with the headache of huge contracts. Take last year’s draft. No. 10 pick Matt Leinart signed a six-year, $51 million deal with $14 million guaranteed from Arizona.

Compare that to Maroney, selected just 11 spots later, who landed a five-year, $8.735 million deal with a little over $6 million guaranteed. In the salary cap era, that’s a huge difference financially for two players who aren’t nearly that far apart in terms of ability.

The Patriots have not traded into the top 10 since Belichick arrived.

http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=193882
 

zrinkill

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Everyone looks like geniuses when they are winning Superbowls ..... its been 2 years since the Pats won .....

Lets see if they continue to be the media darlings if they do not make it back real soon.
 

slick325

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Good read. Thanks for posting. Hope Mr. Jones is visiting this site.
 

burmafrd

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We shall see. The FA flurry this year was unlike them; smacked of desperation. The draft could be informative. BB wants that 4th SB very badly= he might be willing to reach and take more risks now.
 

theebs

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zrinkill;1451447 said:
Everyone looks like geniuses when they are winning Superbowls ..... its been 2 years since the Pats won .....

Lets see if they continue to be the media darlings if they do not make it back real soon.

umm They were 65 yards from another super bowl, on the road in the championship game.

Had Dallas done that this places membership would double and the board would be littered with new members telling us how we are the greatest team ever and just one player away.
 

AtlCB

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This article is about three years late. Their drafts have been average at best the last three years.
 

superpunk

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AtlCB;1451654 said:
This article is about three years late. Their drafts have been average at best the last three years.

Exactly. Since Parcells came here, we have been drafting at a better rate than them. The way the Patriots currently draft isn't anything special. How about the way the Ravens draft defensive players, or the way the Bengals draft WRs, or something that is ACTUALLY a model to follow.

Not the Patriots.
 

the big 88

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It might have been two years since they last won a sb but they were a game from going to another. They are obviously doing something right
 

doomsday81

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AtlCB;1451654 said:
This article is about three years late. Their drafts have been average at best the last three years.

Patriots last two drafts:

2006

1. Laurence Maroney: Starter

2. Chad Jackson: Jury still out

3. David Thomas: Will start this season (Pats start two tight ends)

4. Garrett Mills: Injured entire rookie season

4b. Stephen Gostkowski: Had a great rookie season replacing Vinatieri

5. Ryan O'Callagahn: Started 5 games as a rookie, solid backup tackle.

6a. Jeremy Mincey: cut

6b. Dan Stevenson: cut

6c. Le Kevin Smith: Project at nose tackle. This will be a big offseason for him

7. Wiilie Andrews: Led the team in special teams tackles as a rookie


2005

1. Logan Mankins: starter

3a. Ellis Hobbs: starter

3b. Nick Kaczur: starter

4. James Sanders: Part-time starter last year, could start this season as well

5. Ryan Claridge: bust

7a. Matt Cassel: backup quarterback

7b. Andy Stokes: cut


You call those drafts average? Wow. Bottom line is the Pats draft better than any team in the league. That's why they can suffer injury after injury because they have guys who can come in off the bench and get the job done. You have to give credit where credit is due. If you asked 100 football fans if the Pats are a good overall drafting team, 97 would say yes. Apparently the three that wouldn't are on this message board. There are a lot of things I don't like about that team but on draft day, they get the job done as good as anyone. Hell, their worst drafts would qualify as Jerry Jones' best.
 

adamknite

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lets face the facts, there is one reason the patriots have won 3 superbowls and look like draft geniuses, Tom Brady..... If it wasn't for getting lucky by taking a guy a in the 6th round then they wouldn't be regarded like they are. Just like if we end up winning a Superbowl with Romo at the helm, unrestricted Rookie free agent.... luck. Sure they/we were smart enough to pick them up but it was still a long shot that lucked into working. You dont' draft a guy in the sixth round expecting him to be your probowl/superbowl MVP leader.
 

doomsday81

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superpunk;1451657 said:
Exactly. Since Parcells came here, we have been drafting at a better rate than them. The way the Patriots currently draft isn't anything special. How about the way the Ravens draft defensive players, or the way the Bengals draft WRs, or something that is ACTUALLY a model to follow.

Not the Patriots.

That statement is false. Just go back and look at the drafts. I guess you forgot about Bruce Thornton, Jacob Rogers, Stephen Peterman, Sean Ryan, Nathan Jones, B.J. Tucker, Zuriel Smith, Skyler Green, Justin Beriault and even a guys like Kevin Burnett and Marcus Spears. Spears and Burnett are fringe players. Those guys are usually studs on the Patriots. No comparison between the two teams. None. The Patriots win by a 2nd round TKO.
 

doomsday81

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adamknite;1451744 said:
lets face the facts, there is one reason the patriots have won 3 superbowls and look like draft geniuses, Tom Brady..... If it wasn't for getting lucky by taking a guy a in the 6th round then they wouldn't be regarded like they are. Just like if we end up winning a Superbowl with Romo at the helm, unrestricted Rookie free agent.... luck. Sure they/we were smart enough to pick them up but it was still a long shot that lucked into working. You dont' draft a guy in the sixth round expecting him to be your probowl/superbowl MVP leader.

What about Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Asante Samuel, Matt Light, Dan Koppen, Eugene Wilson, Jarvis Green, Logan Mankins, Deion Branch, David Givens, Daniel Graham, Ben Watson, Tully Banta-Cain, etc. Man, that's a whole lot of luck right there.
 

superpunk

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doomsday81;1451746 said:
That statement is false. Just go back and look at the drafts. I guess you forgot about Bruce Thornton, Jacob Rogers, Stephen Peterman, Sean Ryan, Nathan Jones, B.J. Tucker, Zuriel Smith, Skyler Green, Justin Beriault and even a guys like Kevin Burnett and Marcus Spears. Spears and Burnett are fringe players. Those guys are usually studs on the Patriots. No comparison between the two teams. None. The Patriots win by a 2nd round TKO.

For all those, there are equivalent Bethel Johnson's, Marquise Hill's, etc.

For the past 4 drafts, there's a greater percentage of our drafted players remaining on our team than for the Patriots. We're drafting as well or better than they are, that's just the facts.
 

superpunk

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Did this a few weeks ago.

Patriots

2003 draft - They had 10 picks in this draft. Only 4 remain with the team - Ty Warren, Asante Samuel, Eugene Wilson and Dan Koppen. 2nd round receiver Bethel Johnson was traded to the saints last year, and couldn't catch onto a team where Terrence Copper played a significant role last year.

2004 draft - They began by drafting Wilfork, but followed it up with Ben Watson in the first round, despite spending a first rounder on Ben Graham two years prior. Neither TE has even approached first round worth, and the Patriots are rumored to be letting Graham walk soon. Aside from those 2, only Marquise Hill is still on their team, buried on the depth chart. 3 players out of 8 picks.

2005 draft - They helped their Oline here, with Kazcur and Mankins. Good draft - 4 out of 7 picks remain with the team.

2006 - They draft Maroney and Jackson, solid picks if unspectacular as rookies, and follow that up with TWO straight TE selections, despite having two first rounders on the roster. 4th round TE Mills is no longer with them. Decent draft - 6 out of 10 picks remain with the team.

In all, 17 out of 35 picks remain with the team. Slightly less than 50%. Few of those picks have distinguished themselves, at all. Mankins, Warren, Samuel are pretty much the cream. None have made the pro-bowl.

Cowboys -

2003 - Our first 4 picks remain with the team. Jason Witten is a perrenial pro-bowler, and Newman is one of the league's best corners. 4 out of 7

2004 - Without a first round pick, we move and select Julius, an average back. Patrick Crayton was a steal in the 7th. 4 out of 8 players remain.

2005 - DeMarcus Ware, pro-bowler. Marion Barber, second in te NFL in TDs. 6 out of 8 players remain on the team.

2006 - 7 of 8 players remain. None have distinguished themselves, but Watkins and Carpenter are at least starters. Hatcher contributed alot, as did Fasano when we stayed 2 TE.

That's 21 out of 31. That's 68%. Who should be emulating who? Emulating the Patriots means having a lower success rate, drafting MORE Tight ends, and drafting QBs who never even palyed in college, not to mention Kliff Klingsbury. Also, we would have to draft LESS impact players and pro-bowlers, to emulate them correctly.
 

zrinkill

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Wow ...... the facts sure can hurt.

I have said a dozen times ..... the Pats Superbowl run is almost identical with ours ..... Lets see what they do know that their Stars are getting older ..... my guess is the same thing we did.

They already started looking desperate this year ...... kinda like Jerry did when Troy started showing his age .....
 

dogberry

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Fox still has Mills on the roster.

Any evaluation of drafting should take into account where teams drafted.
 

ABQCOWBOY

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AtlCB;1451654 said:
This article is about three years late. Their drafts have been average at best the last three years.

Exactly what do you base this statement on? Personally, I think it takes a few years to know if your draft is succesful or not. However, in the last 3 years, NE has draft the following:

2006
Lawrence Maroney - Rushed for 745 yards, 4.3 YPC and 6 TDs last season.
Chad Jackson - 13 catches, 152 yds 3 TDs.
Dave Thomas - 11 catches, 159 yds, 1 TD.
Garrett Mills - PS
Stephen Gostowski - 20 of 26 FGs, 43-44 EP 97.7%
Jeremy Mincy - Jax
Ryan O'Callahan - Started 6 games
Dan Stevenson - Miami
Lee Kevin Smith - 1 tackle
Willie Anderson - 17 tackles

2005
Logan Mankin - 16 Games Started.
Eric Hobbs - Two year starter. 88 tackles and 5 INTs in two seasons.
Nick Kaczur - Starting Right Tackle two seasons.
James Sanders - Back up Safety 60 tackles, 1 Sack and 2 INTs two seasons.
Ryan Caldridge - Out of League
Matt Cassel - Back up QB.
Andy Stokes - Out of League

2004
Vince Wilfork - 146 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 5 passes defended as a NT.
Ben Watson - 80 catches, 1100 rec yds, 7 TDs.
Marquise Hill - Third String Bust thus far.
Gus Scott - Jets
Dexter Reid - Out of League
Cedric Cobbs - Denver
PK Sam - Miami
Christian Morton - Carolina

Over the last three drafts, they have only drafted 3 who are out of the league. The only player they have missed on is Hill. They have drafted well and are getting excellent production out of there players. They have drafted several players that are playing on somebody else's roster which tells me that they are still quality picks. A team that is in contention for championships year in and year out and is still managing to draft like this is doing something right.
 

superpunk

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dogberry;1451766 said:
Fox still has Mills on the roster.

My mistake. I looked again on NFL.com, and he's there, I must have missed him.

Any evaluation of drafting should take into account where teams drafted.

That's true, and we stood a greater chance of picking impact guys where we were picking for the most part, but still our success rate in terms of drafting guys and keeping them around is better, and IMO we're getting better players. That analysis is subjective, but there are pro-bowls to back that up. We've got pro-bowlers in Witten and Gurode (even if he didn't deserve it) that weren't high picks, as well as our blue-chippers.
 

ABQCOWBOY

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superpunk;1451770 said:
My mistake. I looked again on NFL.com, and he's there, I must have missed him.



That's true, and we stood a greater chance of picking impact guys where we were picking for the most part, but still our success rate in terms of drafting guys and keeping them around is better, and IMO we're getting better players. That analysis is subjective, but there are pro-bowls to back that up. We've got pro-bowlers in Witten and Gurode (even if he didn't deserve it) that weren't high picks, as well as our blue-chippers.


No, there is no subjectivity to it IMO. They were a much better team 3 years ago then we were. They are drafting players to compete ona superbowl quality team in 2004. We were drafting players we thougth might be able to help us get to the playoffs. Huge difference there. Three years ago, they were where we are now, so to speak. We are worried about being able to draft guys that can start or even make our team. They were even better then that three years ago.
 
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