Assorted offensive stats for the bye

[FuzzyLumpkins]

No it isn't. Here are the leaders in YPA. Five of them depend on after-catch yards more than Dak. Four of them depend less.

Yards After Catch per attempt
Dalton 3.45
Brees 3.46
Wilson 3.48
Bradford 3.55
Prescott 3.70
Rivers 3.97
Manning 4.10
Tannehill 4.14
Stafford 4.33
Ryan 4.92

Prescott's 8.2 yards per attempt (3rd in the league) isn't driven by RAC -- it's driven by the accuracy of his intermediate throws.

Completion rate of above players
(targets of 11-20 yards)
Prescott 69.2%
Bradford 68.2%
Manning 61.5%
Rivers 59.0%
Dalton 57.6%
Ryan 54.3%
Stafford 53.3%
Tannehill 50.0%
Brees 44.1%
Wilson 48.5%

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2016/
http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/2577417/dak-prescott

The two notions are not mutually exclusive and you using different stats to play statistical sophist gets old.

 

[percyhoward]

The two notions are not mutually exclusive and you using different stats to play statistical sophist gets old.

Without getting personal, and strictly staying with the discussion, you'd said that the contribution of RAC that Dak is getting to his passing yards is more than the other leaders in YPA.

I showed that it isn't, and offered an explanation of why his YPA is so high, since it isn't because of RAC. That's where the discussion is at this point.

 

[Clove]

Looks like a dominate offense to me.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Without getting personal, and strictly staying with the discussion, you'd said that the contribution of RAC that Dak is getting to his passing yards is more than the other leaders in YPA.

I showed that it isn't, and offered an explanation of why his YPA is so high, since it isn't because of RAC. That's where the discussion is at this point.

You completely ignored my point about the total yardage and percentage of YAC and pulled a different stat that said what you want it to. Its sophistry and it gets old having to verify yet another dataset that leaves out a ton of samples.

Further it does not detract from the point that YAC drives YPA; prima facie looking at how the numerator is calculated shows a direct relationship. YAC + Yards through air = total passing yards. At best, all you are showing is that it happens to other people too. Frankly your examples leave out context.

 

[percyhoward]

You completely ignored my point about the total yardage and percentage of YAC and pulled a different stat that said what you want it to.

Okay, what point did you make that you think I'm ignoring? Please quote it and I'll address it as carefully as I can.

Further it does not detract from the point that YAC drives YPA; prima facie looking at how the numerator is calculated shows a direct relationship. YAC + Yards through air = total passing yards. At best, all you are showing is that it happens to other people too. Frankly your examples leave out context.

Yes, YAC drives YPA. No, not to the same degree for everyone. In fact, that was your point -- that YAC drove Dak's YPA to a greater degree than the other YPA leaders. I posted a list of QB in the order of "least YAC per attempt" among the YPA leaders.

If you think that list doesn't address how Dak's YAC per attempt compares to the YPA leaders, please explain specifically how you think it doesn't. If possible, post the data that leads you to your conclusion that YAC drives Dak's YPA.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Okay, what point did you make that you think I'm ignoring? Please quote it and I'll address it as carefully as I can.

Yes, YAC drives YPA. No, not to the same degree for everyone. In fact, that was your point -- that YAC drove Dak's YPA to a greater degree than the other YPA leaders. I posted a list of QB in the order of "least YAC per attempt" among the YPA leaders.

If you think that list doesn't address how Dak's YAC per attempt compares to the YPA leaders, please explain specifically how you think it doesn't. If possible, post the data that leads you to your conclusion that YAC drives Dak's YPA.

Don't tell me what my point was. My point was that RAC drives his YPA no more no less.

I already did. Passing yards = YAC + yards through the air. That is the numerator demonstrating a direct relationship. More YAC = more YPA all else remaining equal. There is no feedback mechanism.

You start looking down the YPA list like Roethlisberger, Brees, Keenum, Bradford, Wilson and they have diminished YAC. The overall point to take here is that YPA is dependent on receiver performance.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

And let's not forget that he is 23rd in overall attempts going into his bye which will drop him even further. He has yet been asked to carry the team except perhaps the end of the Giant's game.

 

[percyhoward]

Don't tell me what my point was. My point was that RAC drives his YPA no more no less.

Here's the quote. Emphasis mine. (Not trying to pin you down or anything, just explaining what I responded to.)

The contribution Dak is getting to his passing yards from yards after the catch is more than the other leaders in YPA.

That's a very specific assertion that was shown not to be true.

Passing yards = YAC + yards through the air. That is the numerator demonstrating a direct relationship. More YAC = more YPA all else remaining equal.

Right. No doubt about that.

You start looking down the YPA list like Roethlisberger, Brees, Keenum, Bradford, Wilson and they have diminished YAC. The overall point to take here is that YPA is dependent on receiver performance.

I don't know what YPA list you're talking about here. Those guys rank 13th, 9th, 11th, 6th, and 8th in YPA.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Here's the quote. Emphasis mine. (Not trying to pin you down or anything, just explaining what I responded to.)

That's a very specific assertion that was shown not to be true.


Right. No doubt about that.


I don't know what YPA list you're talking about here. Those guys rank 13th, 9th, 11th, 6th, and 8th in YPA.

My position evolved to that after I saw the RAC% figures which supported that. That was the point at which you dropped that for something else thus me pointing out statistical sophistry. Now you are saying its 'disproven' but I'm not going to run around playing whack the stat.

My original position was that the receivers playing so well was driving his YPA.

And yes thus me saying when you go down the list. YPA is heavily influenced by receiver performance. Sure there are exceptions like Dalton but for the most part it holds true.

Dak still doesn't throw it down the field very often and he still doesn't complete a high percentage although he did much better this past game although he was erratic in his midrange.

 

[percyhoward]

And let's not forget that he is 23rd in overall attempts going into his bye which will drop him even further. He has yet been asked to carry the team except perhaps the end of the Giant's game.

No single player has had to carry the team so far, which is probably a very good thing. The 23rd in attempts is misleading though, because teams don't pass as much when they have 2nd-half leads.

Prescott's Pass Attempts (NFL rank)
1st half 8th
2nd half 30th

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

No single player has had to carry the team so far, which is probably a very good thing. The 23rd in attempts is misleading though, because teams don't pass as much when they have 2nd-half leads.

Prescott's Pass Attempts (NFL rank)
1st half 8th
2nd half 30th

As long as we have the overpowering running game we are in good shape. I'm just worried once someone is able to stop it or if the defense has a bad game. Neither has happened yet.

Him not having to throw in the second half is kinda the point.

 

[Gameover]

No single player has had to carry the team so far, which is probably a very good thing. The 23rd in attempts is misleading though, because teams don't pass as much when they have 2nd-half leads.

Prescott's Pass Attempts (NFL rank)
1st half 8th
2nd half 30th

Aikman like

 

[Gameover]

As long as we have the overpowering running game we are in good shape. I'm just worried once someone is able to stop it or if the defense has a bad game. Neither has happened yet.

Him not having to throw in the second half is kinda the point.

Did you watch the Commanders game? We won that game because of Prescott.

Remember Zeke nearly fumbling the game away? Remember our go ahead drive was mostly Prescott in the air?

And if you didn't know: Romo isn't undefeated.

 

[percyhoward]

That and Zeke getting 6-7 yards on first down.

We're actually passing much more on first down this year than we did in 2014. Here's our play selection from the 1st half of games.

2016
pass 42.7% (8.8 yd avg gain)
run 57.3% (4.9 yd avg gain)

2014
pass 32.4% (8.4 yd avg gain)
run 67.6% (4.7 yd avg gain)

I list the 1st half because that's when we have done the most damage. In 2016, the combined score in the 1st half is Dallas 98 Opponent 46. 2nd half is a 61-61 tie, and we run on first down 72% of the time in the 2nd half. (In 2014, we ran on first down 70% of the time in the 2nd half).

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Did you watch the Commanders game? We won that game because of Prescott.

Remember Zeke nearly fumbling the game away? Remember our go ahead drive was mostly Prescott in the air?

And if you didn't know: Romo isn't undefeated.

I remember the 3 rushing TD. I remember Church's end zone interception.

I have to say that Prescott fanbois make it nigh impossible to be objective. He has played well but the team has really stepped up at the same time.

 

[Gameover]

I remember the 3 rushing TD. I remember Church's end zone interception.

I have to say that Prescott fanbois make it nigh impossible to be objective. He has played well but the team has really stepped up at the same time.

Of course they have! You can't win without a team.

1. One of those rushing TD was by Prescott

2. Prescott was 5/5 for 55 yards on that drive. You forgot the 3rd & 11 to Beasley? Hell that was his best passing day. Here is one you'll like: His biggest play that day was on a short, play-action pass to Swaim that he took for about 30 yards. You can go ahead and subtract those yards from Daks totals!

3. In one of your other post, you said that Dak hasn't been good on his 20+ yards passes... He's thrown 2 to Butler. 1 vs Chicago that should've been a pass interference and 1 vs Green Bay that should've been caught and should've been a TD. There was also one that Dez dropped in the end zone vs the Giants.

4. I'm not saying Dak has made the all the right decisions. I'm not saying he has been good his last two road games. I'm not saying I'm completely sold on him(more not wanting to jinx it). But I'm damn sure hoping like hell that this guy is the real deal! And if you're a Cowboys fan, how the hell can you not?!

5. Romo is 36 years old. Romo needed shots to get thru games in 2014. Romo was limping thru the 4th quarter of the GB playoff game. I believe Romo needed a shot after the opening night game vs the Giants in 2015(or before the philly game). Romo has been pretty much injured since then. And you guys are knocking this rookie? This rookie might be all we've got... Romo is not a given

Back and neck injuries don't get better with age

 

[CCBoy]

This has been an enjoyable banter of statistics.

The specifics of a true selection process observed, on a truly functional basis, would have to include types of routes utilized and which personnel were utilized.

I'm betting that there is a learning curve added to a Dak Prescott observed results....and even this, will additionally be affected by the real presence of Dez Bryant over the near feature.

How Dez and the other receivers evolve, I would expect, will improve upon how things are at present for Prescott. But that is, until Tony Romo is at the helm....

Both projections to this fan, leave me very hungry.

Thanks for creating an observable hunger in this fan!

 

[Scotman]

I don't think anyone thought he would be what he has been at this point. Pretty amazing

If they had, no way he lasts until the end of the fourth round.

 

[ufcrules1]

Well, hope it lasts at least through this weeks game at Philly. And when they play Washington. Then he can lose it when he plays Dallas.

Agree!

 

[conner01]

If they had, no way he lasts until the end of the fourth round.

Very true
But he is playing great for even a first rnd pick