BCS guru: Cowboys in Turtle Game

[Rogah]

The USA Today poll is out now and it looks like OSU might be making up enough ground to get into the 2nd place slot. If the computers give all 2nd place votes to OSU as most expect and the Harris poll mirrors the USA Today poll Alabama will beat out OSU by .0011 on the average. TCU also moved up a couple of spots so they might just get the 16th ranking they are looking for.



1.LSU (59) 13-0; 1,475
2.Alabama 11-1; 1,399
3.Oklahoma State 11-1; 1,367

The Cowboys need to pick up an average of .0839 across the 3 polls to tie the Crimson Tide. Those results represent a gain of .1003. However I don't think they'll pick up more than .4 in the computers. So it will take a big swing from the Harris poll. It's certainly in the realm of possibility despite what some people said in my other thread about how it would be impossible to catch and pass Alabama.

OSU made a really big gains in the AP Top 25. I know that doesn't factor into the BCS but if the Harris Poll has OSU and Alabama as close as the AP Top 25 poll, then I think the computers would be enough to push OSU over the top.

 

[Rogah]

I think OSU may need to be the unanimous #2 pick by the computers (after dropping their lowest computer ranking). It looks like they are going to be #2 is all computer rankings except Kenneth Massey and maybe Peter Wolfe. So for now OSU's only hopes like in a sizeable Harris Poll swing which is certainly in the realm of possibility although I think the Peter Wolfe poll may be the deciding factor.

It just proves the old adage correct: As goes Peter Wolfe, so goes the nation!

 

[Rogah]

I think OSU may need to be the unanimous #2 pick by the computers (after dropping their lowest computer ranking). It looks like they are going to be #2 is all computer rankings except Kenneth Massey and maybe Peter Wolfe. So for now OSU's only hopes like in a sizeable Harris Poll swing which is certainly in the realm of possibility although I think the Peter Wolfe poll may be the deciding factor.

It just proves the old adage correct: As goes Peter Wolfe, so goes the nation!

EDIT: Sagarin put OSU at #3 so that's pretty bad news. It will take a significant swing from the Harris.

 

[Cythim]

Houston at 14? Kewl!

Still hoping for a better bowl matchup than their loss is currently projecting.

Edit: Maybe not. Just saw the real rankings http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm

Houston could end up with Penn State in the TicketCity bowl. They could get passed over even though they finished 4th in the Big 10.

 

[ZeroClub]

Will South Carolina and Arkansas get into the 8 team playoff since they are clearly the 3rd and 4th best teams in the SEC... err.. nation?

It'd be interesting 5 or 6 years into an 8 team playoff system. My guess is that the SEC's dominance would become so readily apparent that they'd typically have 3 and sometimes 4 teams in the elite 8.

 

[Cythim]

EDIT: Sagarin put OSU at #3 so that's pretty bad news. It will take a significant swing from the Harris.

Does that make it 3 computer polls with OSU at #3? If Alabama and OSU split the computer polls evenly OSU would need more than 70% of the 2nd place votes on the Harris poll to get into the title game. Considering Alabama took 71% of the 2nd place votes in the USA Today poll and had something like 98% of the 2nd place votes in last week's Harris poll I would say there is very little hope for OSU if they cannot sweep the computers.

 

[Rogah]

Does that make it 3 computer polls with OSU at #3? If Alabama and OSU split the computer polls evenly OSU would need more than 70% of the 2nd place votes on the Harris poll to get into the title game. Considering Alabama took 71% of the 2nd place votes in the USA Today poll and had something like 98% of the 2nd place votes in last week's Harris poll I would say there is very little hope for OSU if they cannot sweep the computers.

Right now I have 2 computer polls with OSU at #3 with 2 others yet to report. So that does not bode well for them. Quite simply I think it is going to take a sizeable amount of Harris Poll voters to change their minds now that it's the moment of truth. Alabama will be hurt by those who don't want to see a rematch and those who don't want to see a non-conference champ in the final. Will it be enough? Stay tuned.

 

[Rogah]

UPDATE: CBS's BCS guru says OSU will have to pass Alabama outright in the Harris to be #2 overall. He says it will take a 5 point margin of victory of Alabama in the Harris to get the job done for OSU.