Bear's 2012 Draft Philosophy

silverbear

silverbear

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First off, this is not my annual draft prediction post, that will come over the weekend... it will differ from this one in that I'll be trying to guess what the Cowboys will do, rather than what I'd do in that situation...

But this post will piggyback on my position by position analysis, hopefully to give an overview on how to approach this draft to maximize need with best player available...

QUARTERBACK-- if the Boys are absolutely in love with Case Keenum from Houston or GJ Kinne from Tulsa, they might use a 7th round pick to ensure they grab the one they like, but it's quite possible neither will be drafted... I think it would make more sense not to draft a QB this year (next year is supposed to be a great year for QBs), instead opting to sign an undrafted rookie free agent to compete for the 3rd QB job...

RUNNING BACK-- again, I don't think I'd draft a RB this year, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if the Boys threw us a curve by drafting a Doug Martin from Boise State or a LaMichael James from Oregon in the 2nd round... I wouldn't, but I'm getting a hunch that they might...

FULLBACK-- nothing to see here, move along... maybe sign Cody Johnson from Texas as an UDRFA... thank God we signed Lawrence Vickers to be our FB...

TIGHT END-- I keep hearing the Boys might go for a TE early, but I don't see it... to me, the smart approach would be to wait until the 6th round, then pick from Rhett Ellison from USC, James Hanna from Oklahoma or Taylor Thompson from SMU...

WIDE RECEIVER-- there are two slot receivers I'd be targeting, Ryan Broyles from Oklahoma in the 3rd round, T.Y. Hilton from Florida International in the 4th...

CENTER-- if they can finagle it, I'd like to see the Boys draft Peter Konz from Wisconsin in the late 1st, but I'm not sure it's doable... they'd either have to trade down from pick 14, or trade up from pick 45... if they can't get Konz, target Philip Blake from Baylor in the 4th...

OFFENSIVE GUARD-- grab one early... go for David DeCastro from Stanford in the 1st, or Glenn in the later 1st after a trade down, or Amini Silatolu in the 2nd, or Brandon Brooks in the 3rd... any one of the four would suit me just fine...

OFFENSIVE TACKLE-- target one late in the draft, we already have Tyron Smith and Doug Free firmly ensconced as starters... there's Tom Compton from South Dakota in the 6th, Donald Stephenson from Oklahoma in the 6th, Levy Adcock from Oklahoma State in the 7th and Jeff Adams from Columbia in the 7th...

DEFENSIVE END-- hope that Fletcher Cox is on the board in the first round...

DEFENSIVE TACKLE-- look for a widebody run stuffer late... target Hebron Fangupo from BYU in the 5th round, and if he's already off the board, focus on Nicolas-Jean Baptiste from Baylor or Ishmaa'ily Kitchen from Kent State in the 7th...

INSIDE LINEBACKER-- they might look at James-Michael Johnson from Nevada in the 4th, they might think about Jerry Franklin from Arkansas in the 7th (surely Jerry Jones would be intrigued by the thought of draft a Jerry from Arkansas) or Korey Toomer from Idaho in the 7th...

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER-- this is a high priority in this draft, with interesting prospects both early and late... think Whitney Mercilus from Illinois in the 1st, Vinny Curry from Marshall or Shea McClellin from Boise State in the 2nd round, Bruce Irvin from West Virginia in the 3rd... the team should certainly try to grab one of these pass rushers, then along about the 6th round, they might think about double dipping at OLB, adding either Tank Carder from TCU or Emmanuel Acho from Texas...

SAFETY-- if they can't grab Mark Barron from Alabama in the 1st round, the only other prospect who semi-intrigues me would be Matt Daniels from Duke in the 7th round...

CORNERBACK-- recognizing this is another fairly pressing need for the Boys, I still don't think I'd draft one early... rather, I'd target a Chase Minnifield from Virginia in the 4th round range, Brandon Hardin from Oregon State in the 5th (though he might ultimately prove to be more effective playing FS) or Donnie Fletcher from Boston College in the 6th...

OK, now let's organize this short list by round:

FIRST ROUND (stay at pick 14)-- Fletcher Cox, DE, Mississippi State... David DeCastro, OG, Stanford... Mark Barron, S, Alabama...

FIRST ROUND (trade down into 20s)-- Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin... Cordy Glenn, OG/OT, Georgia... Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois...

SECOND ROUND-- Amini Silatolu, OG, Midwestern State... Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State... Doug Martin, RB, Boise State... Vinny Curry, OLB, Marshall... LaMichael James, RB, Oregon...

THIRD ROUND-- Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma... Brandon Brooks, OG, Miami (Ohio)... Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia...

FOURTH ROUND-- Philip Blake, C, Baylor... Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia... T.Y. Hilton, WR, Florida International... James-Michael Johnson, ILB, Nevada...

FIFTH ROUND-- Hebron Fangupo, NT, BYU... Brandon Hardin, CB, Oregon State... this might be a good place to trade down and add some late round picks, especially if these two are already off the board... there are a lot of options in the 6th round...

SIXTH ROUND-- Rhett Ellison, TE, USC... James Hanna, TE, Oklahoma... Taylor Thompson, TE, SMU (converted DE)... Tom Compton, OT, South Dakota... Duane Stephenson, OL, Oklahoma... Tank Carder, LB, TCU... Emmanuel Acho, LB, Texas... Donnie Fletcher, CB, Boston College... yeah, this would be a good place to grab a TE...

SEVENTH ROUND-- Nicolas Jean-Baptiste, NT, Baylor... Ishmaa'ily Kitchen, NT, Kent State... Korey Toomer, ILB, Idaho... Jerry Franklin, ILB, Arkansas... Matt Daniels, S, Duke... Levy Adcock, OT, Oklahoma State... Jeff Adams, OT, Columbia... Case Keenum, QB, Houston... G.J. Kinne, QB, Tulsa...

And now, my short list is down to 35 players scattered through rounds 1-7... this gives me a broad overview of what positions and players I should be targeting, in which rounds... I have to go pretend I actually work here for a little while, but at some point in the not too distant future I'll try to offer a mock taken from this list...
 
I hope you missed the boat on a running back in the second too much talent left on the board to try and hit on a RB. I agree lets wait on the TE and see who is going to tumble down into the fifth and sixth slot. If the McGee project has concluded lets start it up again with different talent. I have not read up on the second and third tier QB's we cannot stick our head in the sand and just hope Orton is copacetic without grooming another QB in our system. Lately some have discussed the Yale QB, and the QB from San Diego Ryan Lindley. IMO
 
great work to put things in perspective Bear
i agree with most of what you said

as much of a proponent i am of building the OL, it is clear from your post that our pick in round 1 should not be decastro given later choices that might turn out to be close to just as good

from these options here is my mock

Rd 1: Cox or Barron (prefer Cox if he is there)
Rd 2: Silatolu
Rd 3: Irvin
Rd 3b: trade up from 4 to get Broyles (with next years 4th)
Rd 4: Blake

If Minnifield is still there in mid/late 4th, trade 5 and 6 to get into the 4th and get Minnifield

If Minnifield gone

5: Chris Rainey (not among your choices)
6: one of the TEs or CB FLetcher
7: one of the NTs or OT Addock
 
Great post. I agree with most of the names you've listed in each round, but this Martin stuff is just scary (not that you wrote it because there are certainly rumblings from what we're hearing). It would just be such an incredibly stupid pick by the Cowboys! Everyone knows that RBs can be had in the middle rounds and RB is NOT an area of need. We just used a 3rd on Murray who looks like a stud at RB, we have Felix as a good backup/change of pace guy, and Tanner should be fine as a 3rd RB. If/when Felix leaves NEXT year, we can pick an RB in the draft. If a guy we love falls to the mid/late rounds in this draft we can take the RB then. Taking Martin in the first couple of rounds would show that this team has learned nothing over the years. In the 2nd round there will be highly ranked players available that fill much greater needs than RB.
 
visionary;4513244 said:
great work to put things in perspective Bear
i agree with most of what you said
Click to expand...

I hadn't tried that approach before, and it was a fair amount of work, but it did give me a pretty clear perspective on the draft board... I'm pleased with the way it worked out...

as much of a proponent i am of building the OL, it is clear from your post that our pick in round 1 should not be decastro given later choices that might turn out to be close to just as good
Click to expand...

Yeah, my pet cat at OG is Brandon Brooks...

I like the mock draft plan you came up with from this...
 
BIGDen;4513247 said:
Great post. I agree with most of the names you've listed in each round, but this Martin stuff is just scary (not that you wrote it because there are certainly rumblings from what we're hearing). It would just be such an incredibly stupid pick by the Cowboys! Everyone knows that RBs can be had in the middle rounds and RB is NOT an area of need. We just used a 3rd on Murray who looks like a stud at RB, we have Felix as a good backup/change of pace guy, and Tanner should be fine as a 3rd RB. If/when Felix leaves NEXT year, we can pick an RB in the draft. If a guy we love falls to the mid/late rounds in this draft we can take the RB then. Taking Martin in the first couple of rounds would show that this team has learned nothing over the years. In the 2nd round there will be highly ranked players available that fill much greater needs than RB.
Click to expand...

I'm not inclined to argue with any of that...
 
The Cowboys are giving every indication that they need a 2nd TE. This is the one need that didn't get filled in free agency. I hope they don't go this route, but Allen from Clemson could be a target in the second round. More likely, Orson Charles could be a possibility in the third round. I think those two names should at least be considerations.

They also could go CB in the 3rd-4th round range if they thought a player could be the 4th CB this year and possibly the 2nd-3rd CB next year if Jenkins leaves. So I would add Hayward, Fleming and Brooks to your list.

Great post.
 
I'm thinking that the interest in Martin is a case of due diligence. We have Murray (injured), Jones (Injury-prone), and Tanner (UDFA).

This scenario comes to mind... Dallas trades back into the late First to grab Konz, adding a second round pick. So...

1 - Konz
2a - Martin
2b - Silatolu / Zeitler / Allen

Instant ball-control.

Not saying this is what I want, but it would help our defense tremendously.
 
StarHead69;4513316 said:
I'm thinking that the interest in Martin is a case of due diligence. We have Murray (injured), Jones (Injury-prone), and Tanner (UDFA).

This scenario comes to mind... Dallas trades back into the late First to grab Konz, adding a second round pick. So...

1 - Konz
2a - Martin
2b - Silatolu / Zeitler / Allen

Instant ball-control.

Not saying this is what I want, but it would help our defense tremendously.
Click to expand...

That probably would not help the defense as much as actually helping the defense.
 
Hostile;4513326 said:
Ellison went to USC.
Click to expand...

Of ourse he did...

Cut me a little slack, you know how punchy I get in the last week before the draft... :D
 
On your list, Bear, I would have such a hard time (if they were available) choosing between Irvin and Broyles in the 3rd. I've seen mocks that have Broyles lasting into the 4th and us taking him, but I don't see it happening.

Good read.
 
I suspect we will see what the Cowboys think of Jenkins current medical report in this draft. Jenkins may not be available in training camp, either. Me, I am worried about his recovery, and given that we don't have much depth at the position, I expect the Cowboys to pick up at least two DBs.
 
silverbear;4513341 said:
Of ourse he did...

Cut me a little slack, you know how punchy I get in the last week before the draft... :D
Click to expand...
Fixed it for you in both places.
 
Would I hate to see a RB drafted round 2? Yes. Do I think Martin would be a huge get ? Yes. Seriously even though the trenches need to be addressed in one and two, we all know a skill player is coming, dont we.
 
RS12;4513449 said:
Would I hate to see a RB drafted round 2? Yes. Do I think Martin would be a huge get ? Yes. Seriously even though the trenches need to be addressed in one and two, we all know a skill player is coming, dont we.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, I don't think they'll be able to fight the urge to take one early. At some point I fear it will come down to a WR/RB/TE vs DL/OL player and the question they'll ask is "Who will score more touchdowns?", thus removing any of the trench players from the discussion.
 
silverbear;4513214 said:
First off, this is not my annual draft prediction post, that will come over the weekend... it will differ from this one in that I'll be trying to guess what the Cowboys will do, rather than what I'd do in that situation...
THIRD ROUND-- Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma... Brandon Brooks, OG, Miami (Ohio)... Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia...
Click to expand...
If Irvin was there in the 3'rd I would jump all over it. I think he goes in the second though. I think he and Whitney Mercilos have the most potential as pure pash rushers. I would love Mercilos in a trade down in the 1'st actually.

Tex
 
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