silverbear
Semi-Official Loose Cannon
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OK, I can't put this off any longer, I self-imposed a deadline of early April to crank this out. The problem is, I don't feel ready yet; I've been stalling, trying to learn more about player interests, hoping to see some free agent moves that would give me some idea of what direction the team might take in the draft. Instead, the only moves I've seen-- the release of Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin-- only make the picture blurrier.
Damn.
I would have also liked to seen the list of players invited to the annual Dallas Day, although they tend to be more mid-to-late round types, even undrafted rookie free agents. But the Boys do often wind up adding one or two or three of those players, so that input would have been helpful.
On the plus side, at this point we have a list of some 55-60 players that the team has shown some interest in at some point during the offseason workout process. In the hopes of being semi-accurate, I will feature these players heavily (though I might sneak a personal favorite or two in there). Of course, there are probably other players that they like, that they've managed to keep from the media to this point.
Complicating this exercise a bit this year is the current rumor making the rounds about the Boys possibly contemplating a trade up with the Dolphins, to pick 12. While I'm intrigued by this rumor, and don't consider it out of the realm of possibility, for the purposes of this exercise I'm dismissing it. Part of the reason I do that is Jerry flatly said a few weeks back that he wouldn't be looking to trade up. Of course, we all know Jerry has been known to say one thing one week, then do the opposite a week or two later, but I'm inclined to believe him this time.
Another complicating factor is the status of some of our own remaining restricted free agents; Marcus Spears was "only" tendered at a first round pick compensation level, which seems to suggest the Boys might not mind it if he went elsewhere. They might even be willing to work a sign and trade deal with him for a lesser pick, say a second rounder. Gerald Sensabaugh was tendered at a second round pick compensation level, and I could see some team giving him an offer sheet. However, with Hamlin released, I have to think it would take some kind of poison pill for the team not to match such an offer. Then there's Miles Austin, tendered at the highest possible level, a first and a third. Jerry has been emphatic about wanting to keep him, that he'd match any offer, but again, what if some team comes up with a poison pill that makes it impossible for him to do so?
Any of these scenarios would radically change the draft picture for the Dallas Cowboys, and I have played around with mock drafts that included any or all of them. They were lots of fun. But I think I'll play this analysis straight, the only trade possibility I'll consider is a small trade down from pick 27, if the players the Boys like in the first round are all gone. I think there's a chance that could happen, though I obviously hope it doesn't. I've done this before, offered one first round pick scenario, and also a trade down scenario.
So, looking at the big picture, what do I see as the draft priorities for the Cowboys this year? We have all discussed this to death in here, and I find myself pretty much in agreement with the consensus-- offensive line, safety, inside linebacker depth, cornerback depth and fullback (in roughly that order). The Boys would also reportedly like to find a dynamic kick returner. While there is also a need for a solid kicker, I think the Boys are set on letting David Buehler and Connor Hughes battle for the job, while keeping an eye out for a veteran if neither one wins the job outright. Jerry has said he won't draft a kicker this year, and I believe him, if only because none of the kickers looks to me like they'd be worth even a seventh round pick this year.
So, with this lengthy preamble in mind, on with the prognosticating/guesswork. As always, I'll offer 5 or 6 alternatives for each pick, then I'll give you my choice. Players listed in bold font are players that we know the Boys have shown some interest in, players in italic fonts are my "pet cats":
FIRST ROUND-- staying at pick 27:
Earl Thomas, CB/FS, Texas... 5-10, 206 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Dez Bryant, WR/KR, Oklahoma State... 6-2, 225 pounds, 4.55 second 40
Mike Iupati, OG/OT, Idaho... 6-5, 330 pounds, 5.25 second 40
Kyle Wilson, CB/KR, Boise State... 5-10, 195 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Jared Odrick, DT/DE, Penn State... 6-5, 306 pounds, 4.95 second 40
Devin McCourty, CB/KR, Rutgers... 5-11, 195 pounds, 4.35 second 40
Comments-- Thomas, Bryant and Iupati might well not be on the board when the Boys pick, but if they slide, they'd be excellent value here. I'd really, really like to see Thomas or Iupati in a Cowboys uniform; Earl is an ultrafast, playmaking safety who might also project to cornerback, but he'd be just what the Boys need at free safety. Iupati is a poor man's Larry Allen, a powerful roadgrading guard who might also be able to play right tackle. Bryant is a dynamic wide receiver who can also be a weapon as a punt returner, but with Miles Austin on the roster, I don't know the Boys could get maximum use out of him.
McCourty and Wilson are both gifted corners, and you can never have too many corners, and both are effective return men. I'd prefer McCourty, because of the seven kicks he blocked in college (three his senior year). I love those special teams demons. Odrick would be a nice pickup for the defensive line, he's got a great motor, but I'd only go that way if Marcus Spears is sent packing. If Spears is still on the roster, Odrick is an unnecessary luxury, at least in my opinion. McCourty and Wilson are more likely to still be on the board at pick 27, but I'd really rather address a position of greater need here.
And the pick is-- Iupati, please... please, please, please... I'm just sold on the guy. I really like Thomas too, though, and would be ecstatic to see him come to Dallas.
SECOND ROUND-- trade down from pick 27:
The truth is, for me pick 27 would be all about Iupati or Thomas, and if neither is there (a distinct possibility), then I'd look to trade down maybe 10 picks, adding a third rounder in the process.
Maurkice Pouncey, C/OG, Florida... 6-5, 306 pounds, 5.25 second 40
DeMaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech... 6-3, 225 pounds, 4.55 second 40
Tyson Alualu, DE, Cal... 6-3, 295 pounds, 4.85 second 40
Chris Cook, CB/FS, Virginia... 6-2, 210 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Nate Allen, FS, South Florida... 6-1, 206 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Comments-- If the Boys were to trade down a short way from 27, they could go in a number of different directions. They could address their need at safety with either Cook or Allen, though truthfully, neither one of them has the reputation as a playmaker that I'd ideally like for the position. They are both talented, though, and would be a good value in the pick 34-pick 40 range. Alualu is listed as a defensive tackle, but I think with his quickness, he'd be ideally suited for a 3-4 end. Again, though, if Marcus Spears is on the roster, is defensive end a high priority this year?
I think Pouncey would be a solid choice here, Andre Gurode isn't getting any younger, and this might be the time to start grooming his eventual replacement. I wish he was a little bigger, I like my interior linemen big, but the scouting reports say he's very smart on the field, which is a nice trait to have in a center. Thomas is a very large receiver, but even though the Boys have looked at a lot of receivers this offseason, Jerry said that he didn't see them going that way early in the draft, and with the emergence of Miles Austin, I don't see why they should.
And the pick is-- Pouncey or Allen, flip a coin. Though I'm a Virginia Cavaliers fan, and though I like Cook's size, I prefer Allen at safety because I've read a few things that suggest Cook might have a bit of a bad attitude.
SECOND ROUND:
Lamarr Houston, DT/DE, Texas... 6-3, 306 pounds, 4.85 second 40
Dexter McCluster, RB/WR/KR, Mississippi... 5-9, 175 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Vladimir Ducasse, OT/OG, Massachusetts... 6-5, 330 pounds, 5.2 second 40
Alex Carrington, DE, Arkansas State... 6-5, 286 pounds, 4.9 second 40
Sean Lee, ILB, Penn State... 6-2, 235 pounds, 4.6 second 40
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, CB/FS/kr, Indiana (Pa.)... 6-0, 206 pounds, 4.35 second 40
Comments-- Naturally, where the Boys go with this pick would be affected by what they did in the first round. That's just common sense. Basically, if they went safety with their first pick, I'd heavily target the offensive line here, and vice versa. In other words, draft the massive, talented but raw Ducasse if they were able to draft one of the defensive backs earlier, or go with the swift, talented but raw Owusu-Ansah if they went with Iupati or Pouncy.
Ahhh, but wait a second, I really like Houston (of course I do, I'm a Longhorns fan), and I think that little waterbug Dexter McCluster would give our offense and our return game an added jolt of electricity at this pick. I've also heard that the Boys really like Lee, and they could use a little depth behind aging Keith Brooking at inside 'backer. As for Carrington, well, he looks like a prototypical 3-4 defensive end to me.
There are a lot of good options here.
And the pick is-- Ducasse if the Boys haven't already drafted an offensive lineman, McCluster if they have. It's hard not to go with a defensive back here, I'll just have to hope if it shakes out this way that the team can find their safety in free agency (while still drafting one later in this draft).
THIRD ROUND:
John Jerry, OT/OG, Mississippi... 6-5, 325 pounds, 5.15 second 40
Mitch Petrus, OG/C, Arkansas... 6-3, 310 pounds, 5.25 second 40
Dorin Dickerson, TE/FB, Pitt... 6-2, 225 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Navarro Bowman, OLB/ILB, Penn State... 6-1, 240 pounds, 4.65 second 40
Carlton Mitchell, WR, South Florida... 6-3, 215 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Clay Harbor, TE/FB, Missouri State... 6-3, 250 pounds, 4.6 second 40
Comments-- There are a number of nice offensive linemen who will likely still be on the board here, but I'm sticking strictly with players we know the Boys have shown an interest in at this point, so the two on this list are Jerry and Petrus. I have to think that Jerry Jones would find it pleasant drafting a Razorback, and some scouts think that Petrus might be able to play center too (though he worked exclusively at guard in college). This obviously increases his value.
The Boys have shown a good deal of interest in fullback/tight end tweener types this offseason, I think there might be two reason for that-- first, Deon Anderson got himself into big trouble with his gun incident, and combined with his unfortunate injury history, the Boys might want to cut their ties with him. Second, Martellus Bennett just doesn't seem to be growing up, showing the maturity and focus he needs to maximize his potential. And the truth is, he'll probably never be happy as long as he's running behind Jason Witten. So the team may be considering trading him away, in which case they'd need another tight end. Dickerson is on the small side for either tight end or fullback, but he's extremely fast for either position, and might pose matchup nightmares for opposing defensive coordinators. He's also on record saying that he thinks he can play at 240. Harbor is a more traditionally sized H-back who might fit their needs too.
While I've said that I don't think that wide receiver is a pressing need for this team this year, I have to confess that after reading about Mitchell, I kind of understand why the Boys like him, and I wouldn't be at all upset if they grabbed him here. Then there's Bowman; he's an outside linebacker, and I don't really think the Boys need any more talent there at the moment, but some scouts think he'll move inside in the NFL, and if that's the case, he might be a good fit for them.
And the pick is-- Petrus, unless the Boys snapped up Pouncey earlier (in which case another G/C type would be redundant). In that case, I'll take Dickerson. And remember, if they traded down from pick 27, they'd probably have a 2nd pick in this range, so both would be possibilities.
FOURTH ROUND:
Bear in mind that at this point, the Boys don't have a fifth round pick, so I'll be including some players that currently carry a fifth round grade here. Of course, it's always possible (even likely) that Trader Jerry will get involved in the proceedings, and a fifth rounder might appear, but I don't have the first clue how to project such possibilities, so I'm going with the assumption they won't have a fifth.
Jordan Shipley, WR/KR, Texas... 5-11, 195 pounds, 4.5 second 40
Garrett Graham, TE/FB, Wisconsin... 6-3, 245 pounds, 4.7 second 40
Marshall Newhouse, OG/OT/C, TCU... 6-4, 320 pounds, 5.0 second 40
Arthur Moats, OLB, James Madison... 6-0, 245 pounds, 4.65 second 40
Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Kansas... 6-2, 206 pounds, 4.5 second 40
Emmanuel Sanders, WR/KR, SMU... 5-11, 186 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Comments-- Please, don't hate me because I'm a Horns Homer, but even though I haven't read that the Boys have any interest in Shipley, I really hope they do. On pure talent, I think he should be at least a second round pick, but he's overaged for a draft prospect, he has had a fairly lengthy injury history in college, and he didn't wow scouts with his straight line speed in offseason workouts (I think he's faster than he clocked, in fact I think he's significantly faster, but he didn't show it). All of these factors will likely combine to push him down further than he should go. But friends, if he's still on the board at pick 125, I'll be praying that the Boys send a card with his name on it up to the podium. I say this because after watching him the last 2 years, I'm firmly convinced he's going to be a very good slot receiver for somebody. Believe what you want about his speed, but he can get separation, because he is undeniably quick, and he runs crisp, precise routes. Romo would know he could count on Jordan to be exactly where he's supposed to be on any pattern, and so he'd have confidence in going to him-- particularly since Shipley also has very good hands. The guy offers other intangibles as well, he sees the field well, making him dangerous after the catch, and he's a very good punt returner. Give him a crease, and he's gone.
OK, enough gushing about Ship, on to the other prospects here. Graham is another of those TE/FB tweeners, who falls further in the draft than Harbor or Dickerson simply because he's not as fast as they are. He does have talent, though. Newhouse is a particular favorite of mine, and not just because of the size/speed numbers, though they're undeniably excellent. He played guard at TCU, but could easily project to tackle in the NFL, because in the offense the Horned Frogs play, they use wide splits which basically puts all of their linemen "on an island". I also like that some scouts are projecting that with his quick first step, he could possibly move to center. You've got to like a possible backup at all five positions along the line.
I only learned about the Boys' interest in Briscoe and Sanders today, both will apparently be coming in for the annual Dallas Day early this coming week. Of the two, I like Sanders for the Boys better, even though Briscoe is bigger. Emmanuel is a cat-quick player, who despite his size is willing to block; he's also SMU's all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs. In other words, he was ultra-productive for a rather mediocre program. If the Boys want to add a receiver to the mix, this might be the time, and Sanders might well be the player.
I personally like Moats, because I live near JMU, and I've seen him play some. He's been all over the field, a real force at the I-AA level. Again, though, I just don't think the Boys really need an outside 'backer.
And the pick is-- I'd love for it to be Shipley, I'm totally in the tank for Jordan. But I really don't see that happening (he might not last this long, and the Boys have shown no interest in him that I've heard about). I'd be almost as happy with Newhouse, though, since I think upgrading the offensive line should be a top priority in this draft.
SIXTH ROUND
Travis Goethel, ILB/OLB, Arizona State... 6-3, 240 pounds, 4.6 second 40
Robert Johnson, FS, Utah... 6-2, 205 pounds, 4.55 second 40
Roddrick Muckelroy, OLB, Texas... 6-2, 245 pounds, 4.65 second 40
John Conner, FB, Kentucky... 5-11, 245 pounds, 4.65 second 40
David Reed, WR/KR, Utah... 6-0, 190 pounds, 4.5 second 40
Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri... 6-5, 216 pounds, 4.55 second 40 (est.)
Comments-- At this late stage of the draft, I could easily justify going after Goethel to improve the depth at ILB. Keith Brooking isn't getting any younger, but I don't see the position as a glaring enough need that you necessarily have to address it early in the draft. Johnson is a particular favorite of mine, even though his raw computer numbers aren't eye-popping; all he does is make plays in big games, and I think the Cowboys really need some of that ability in their secondary. They've simply got to force more turnovers. Muckelroy was a solid outside linebackers for the Longhorns, but I think after watching him these last few years that his skillset would translate nicely to inside 'backer, so the Cowboys' interest in him makes some sense to me.
Reed and Alexander would be two more late round prospects to consider at WR, especially Alexander. The kid led the nation in receiving yards last year, so he's been productive, but unfortunately, he had to have his third knee surgery after getting hurt in the Senior Bowl. The injury coming this close to the draft will hurt his stock, as will the fact it's his third operation. But if the knee checks out OK, he might be a real steal this late in the draft.
Then there's John Conner. Spare me the "Terminator" jokes, even though some of them crack me up; I think the Boys are likely to get rid of Deon Anderson after his boneheaded, gun-related run-in with the law, so they'll be needing a fullback. Conner is the best pure lead-blocking fullback in this draft. 'Nuff said, I think.
And the pick is-- Conner. I want to find another Moose, in the worst way. If this kid can catch the ball out of the backfield (he has 25 career receptions for 195 yards and 4 TDs, so the jury's out on that one), his blocking skills are Moose-esque...
SEVENTH ROUND:
Jameson Konz, FB/TE, Kent State... 6-4, 235 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Larry Hart, OLB, Central Arkansas... 6-0, 245 pounds, 4.6 second 40
J'Marcus Webb, OT, West Texas A&M... 6-7, 325 pounds, 5.3 second 40
Duke Calhoun, WR, Memphis... 6-2, 195 pounds, 4.5 second 40
Kevin Jurovich, WR/KR, San Jose State... 5-11, 186 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Nic Richmond, OT. TCU... 6-7, 306 pounds, 5.3 second 40
Comments-- Konz is a kind of a poor man's Dorin Dickerson (except a little bigger). Like Dickerson, he's astonishingly fast for a player that big, but Dorin has two advantages that explain his higher draft ranking-- he played for a big-time program at Pitt, while Konz played for Kent State, and Jameson only moved to offense in his final season in college. Before that, he was a linebacker. But if the Boys haven't addressed the FB situation before this, I'd certainly make him my top priority in the seventh round. Again, that speed swinging out of the backfield would be a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators, and as a former linebacker, I suspect he's fond enough of hitting people to make a nice blocker.
Webb and Richmond are two intriguing late round tackles that the Boys have shown interest in, I prefer J'Marcus because he's bigger. But Nic has the frame at 6-7 to put on some pounds in the pros. Though I've often said that I think the Boys are set at outside linebacker, you just can't ignore Hart's production at the position in his two years at Central Arkansas; we're talking 23 sacks, 31.5 tackles for loss, 5 forced fumbles and 3 blocked kicks. I have to think there's a place in the NFL for a player like that, even given his low level of competition.
And then there's the two wide receivers, Calhoun and Jurovich. Duke was ultra-productive at Memphis, setting school career records for receptions (212) and receiving yards (2981). Jurovich is a bit smaller, pretty productive in his own rights, and adds the extra dimension of being a kick returner. Both are projected as undrafted rookie free agents right now, but if the Boys really like one of them (and given their track record in recent years for uncovering talented receivers late, I'm inclined to trust their judgement on this one), they might be wise to grab him with their last pick.
And the pick is-- Konz if the fullback situation hasn't been addressed, otherwise go with Webb.
And so, having offered all my assorted options, I present my "official" mock draft. Alas, I don't think Iupati or Thomas will be there at pick 27, which puts my trade down scenario into play. Looking at what I've already written, I think this is the way I'd go:
2a) Vladimir Ducasse, OL, Massachusetts
2b) Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, DB, Indiana (Pa.)
3a) Dorin Dickerson, TE/FB, Pitt
3b) Jordan Shipley, WR/KR, Texas (allow me this one bit of self-indulgence)
4) Marshall Newhouse, OL, TCU
6) John Conner, FB, Kentucky
7) J'Marcus Webb, OT, West Texas A&M
I have to admit, with all the inactivity at Valley Ranch to this point in the offseason, I'm less confident in this mock than any I've written before. I just haven't seen any real sign of what direction they want to go in, so I'm guessing even more than usual. But what the hell, I hope this exercise in futility has at least given you my take on the team's overall draft philosophy this year, and a heads up as to what players they may like. I tried very hard to emphasize players we know they like over my own pet cats this year. Happily for me, some of my pet cats are also players they've looked at.
And now that I've posted this, I can get to work on organizing my spreadsheets. I hope to have them ready to share by next weekend. You readers are of course cordially invited to discuss and debate this lengthy post, but BE NICE.
Yeah, that'll happen...
Damn.
I would have also liked to seen the list of players invited to the annual Dallas Day, although they tend to be more mid-to-late round types, even undrafted rookie free agents. But the Boys do often wind up adding one or two or three of those players, so that input would have been helpful.
On the plus side, at this point we have a list of some 55-60 players that the team has shown some interest in at some point during the offseason workout process. In the hopes of being semi-accurate, I will feature these players heavily (though I might sneak a personal favorite or two in there). Of course, there are probably other players that they like, that they've managed to keep from the media to this point.
Complicating this exercise a bit this year is the current rumor making the rounds about the Boys possibly contemplating a trade up with the Dolphins, to pick 12. While I'm intrigued by this rumor, and don't consider it out of the realm of possibility, for the purposes of this exercise I'm dismissing it. Part of the reason I do that is Jerry flatly said a few weeks back that he wouldn't be looking to trade up. Of course, we all know Jerry has been known to say one thing one week, then do the opposite a week or two later, but I'm inclined to believe him this time.
Another complicating factor is the status of some of our own remaining restricted free agents; Marcus Spears was "only" tendered at a first round pick compensation level, which seems to suggest the Boys might not mind it if he went elsewhere. They might even be willing to work a sign and trade deal with him for a lesser pick, say a second rounder. Gerald Sensabaugh was tendered at a second round pick compensation level, and I could see some team giving him an offer sheet. However, with Hamlin released, I have to think it would take some kind of poison pill for the team not to match such an offer. Then there's Miles Austin, tendered at the highest possible level, a first and a third. Jerry has been emphatic about wanting to keep him, that he'd match any offer, but again, what if some team comes up with a poison pill that makes it impossible for him to do so?
Any of these scenarios would radically change the draft picture for the Dallas Cowboys, and I have played around with mock drafts that included any or all of them. They were lots of fun. But I think I'll play this analysis straight, the only trade possibility I'll consider is a small trade down from pick 27, if the players the Boys like in the first round are all gone. I think there's a chance that could happen, though I obviously hope it doesn't. I've done this before, offered one first round pick scenario, and also a trade down scenario.
So, looking at the big picture, what do I see as the draft priorities for the Cowboys this year? We have all discussed this to death in here, and I find myself pretty much in agreement with the consensus-- offensive line, safety, inside linebacker depth, cornerback depth and fullback (in roughly that order). The Boys would also reportedly like to find a dynamic kick returner. While there is also a need for a solid kicker, I think the Boys are set on letting David Buehler and Connor Hughes battle for the job, while keeping an eye out for a veteran if neither one wins the job outright. Jerry has said he won't draft a kicker this year, and I believe him, if only because none of the kickers looks to me like they'd be worth even a seventh round pick this year.
So, with this lengthy preamble in mind, on with the prognosticating/guesswork. As always, I'll offer 5 or 6 alternatives for each pick, then I'll give you my choice. Players listed in bold font are players that we know the Boys have shown some interest in, players in italic fonts are my "pet cats":
FIRST ROUND-- staying at pick 27:
Earl Thomas, CB/FS, Texas... 5-10, 206 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Dez Bryant, WR/KR, Oklahoma State... 6-2, 225 pounds, 4.55 second 40
Mike Iupati, OG/OT, Idaho... 6-5, 330 pounds, 5.25 second 40
Kyle Wilson, CB/KR, Boise State... 5-10, 195 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Jared Odrick, DT/DE, Penn State... 6-5, 306 pounds, 4.95 second 40
Devin McCourty, CB/KR, Rutgers... 5-11, 195 pounds, 4.35 second 40
Comments-- Thomas, Bryant and Iupati might well not be on the board when the Boys pick, but if they slide, they'd be excellent value here. I'd really, really like to see Thomas or Iupati in a Cowboys uniform; Earl is an ultrafast, playmaking safety who might also project to cornerback, but he'd be just what the Boys need at free safety. Iupati is a poor man's Larry Allen, a powerful roadgrading guard who might also be able to play right tackle. Bryant is a dynamic wide receiver who can also be a weapon as a punt returner, but with Miles Austin on the roster, I don't know the Boys could get maximum use out of him.
McCourty and Wilson are both gifted corners, and you can never have too many corners, and both are effective return men. I'd prefer McCourty, because of the seven kicks he blocked in college (three his senior year). I love those special teams demons. Odrick would be a nice pickup for the defensive line, he's got a great motor, but I'd only go that way if Marcus Spears is sent packing. If Spears is still on the roster, Odrick is an unnecessary luxury, at least in my opinion. McCourty and Wilson are more likely to still be on the board at pick 27, but I'd really rather address a position of greater need here.
And the pick is-- Iupati, please... please, please, please... I'm just sold on the guy. I really like Thomas too, though, and would be ecstatic to see him come to Dallas.
SECOND ROUND-- trade down from pick 27:
The truth is, for me pick 27 would be all about Iupati or Thomas, and if neither is there (a distinct possibility), then I'd look to trade down maybe 10 picks, adding a third rounder in the process.
Maurkice Pouncey, C/OG, Florida... 6-5, 306 pounds, 5.25 second 40
DeMaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech... 6-3, 225 pounds, 4.55 second 40
Tyson Alualu, DE, Cal... 6-3, 295 pounds, 4.85 second 40
Chris Cook, CB/FS, Virginia... 6-2, 210 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Nate Allen, FS, South Florida... 6-1, 206 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Comments-- If the Boys were to trade down a short way from 27, they could go in a number of different directions. They could address their need at safety with either Cook or Allen, though truthfully, neither one of them has the reputation as a playmaker that I'd ideally like for the position. They are both talented, though, and would be a good value in the pick 34-pick 40 range. Alualu is listed as a defensive tackle, but I think with his quickness, he'd be ideally suited for a 3-4 end. Again, though, if Marcus Spears is on the roster, is defensive end a high priority this year?
I think Pouncey would be a solid choice here, Andre Gurode isn't getting any younger, and this might be the time to start grooming his eventual replacement. I wish he was a little bigger, I like my interior linemen big, but the scouting reports say he's very smart on the field, which is a nice trait to have in a center. Thomas is a very large receiver, but even though the Boys have looked at a lot of receivers this offseason, Jerry said that he didn't see them going that way early in the draft, and with the emergence of Miles Austin, I don't see why they should.
And the pick is-- Pouncey or Allen, flip a coin. Though I'm a Virginia Cavaliers fan, and though I like Cook's size, I prefer Allen at safety because I've read a few things that suggest Cook might have a bit of a bad attitude.
SECOND ROUND:
Lamarr Houston, DT/DE, Texas... 6-3, 306 pounds, 4.85 second 40
Dexter McCluster, RB/WR/KR, Mississippi... 5-9, 175 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Vladimir Ducasse, OT/OG, Massachusetts... 6-5, 330 pounds, 5.2 second 40
Alex Carrington, DE, Arkansas State... 6-5, 286 pounds, 4.9 second 40
Sean Lee, ILB, Penn State... 6-2, 235 pounds, 4.6 second 40
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, CB/FS/kr, Indiana (Pa.)... 6-0, 206 pounds, 4.35 second 40
Comments-- Naturally, where the Boys go with this pick would be affected by what they did in the first round. That's just common sense. Basically, if they went safety with their first pick, I'd heavily target the offensive line here, and vice versa. In other words, draft the massive, talented but raw Ducasse if they were able to draft one of the defensive backs earlier, or go with the swift, talented but raw Owusu-Ansah if they went with Iupati or Pouncy.
Ahhh, but wait a second, I really like Houston (of course I do, I'm a Longhorns fan), and I think that little waterbug Dexter McCluster would give our offense and our return game an added jolt of electricity at this pick. I've also heard that the Boys really like Lee, and they could use a little depth behind aging Keith Brooking at inside 'backer. As for Carrington, well, he looks like a prototypical 3-4 defensive end to me.
There are a lot of good options here.
And the pick is-- Ducasse if the Boys haven't already drafted an offensive lineman, McCluster if they have. It's hard not to go with a defensive back here, I'll just have to hope if it shakes out this way that the team can find their safety in free agency (while still drafting one later in this draft).
THIRD ROUND:
John Jerry, OT/OG, Mississippi... 6-5, 325 pounds, 5.15 second 40
Mitch Petrus, OG/C, Arkansas... 6-3, 310 pounds, 5.25 second 40
Dorin Dickerson, TE/FB, Pitt... 6-2, 225 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Navarro Bowman, OLB/ILB, Penn State... 6-1, 240 pounds, 4.65 second 40
Carlton Mitchell, WR, South Florida... 6-3, 215 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Clay Harbor, TE/FB, Missouri State... 6-3, 250 pounds, 4.6 second 40
Comments-- There are a number of nice offensive linemen who will likely still be on the board here, but I'm sticking strictly with players we know the Boys have shown an interest in at this point, so the two on this list are Jerry and Petrus. I have to think that Jerry Jones would find it pleasant drafting a Razorback, and some scouts think that Petrus might be able to play center too (though he worked exclusively at guard in college). This obviously increases his value.
The Boys have shown a good deal of interest in fullback/tight end tweener types this offseason, I think there might be two reason for that-- first, Deon Anderson got himself into big trouble with his gun incident, and combined with his unfortunate injury history, the Boys might want to cut their ties with him. Second, Martellus Bennett just doesn't seem to be growing up, showing the maturity and focus he needs to maximize his potential. And the truth is, he'll probably never be happy as long as he's running behind Jason Witten. So the team may be considering trading him away, in which case they'd need another tight end. Dickerson is on the small side for either tight end or fullback, but he's extremely fast for either position, and might pose matchup nightmares for opposing defensive coordinators. He's also on record saying that he thinks he can play at 240. Harbor is a more traditionally sized H-back who might fit their needs too.
While I've said that I don't think that wide receiver is a pressing need for this team this year, I have to confess that after reading about Mitchell, I kind of understand why the Boys like him, and I wouldn't be at all upset if they grabbed him here. Then there's Bowman; he's an outside linebacker, and I don't really think the Boys need any more talent there at the moment, but some scouts think he'll move inside in the NFL, and if that's the case, he might be a good fit for them.
And the pick is-- Petrus, unless the Boys snapped up Pouncey earlier (in which case another G/C type would be redundant). In that case, I'll take Dickerson. And remember, if they traded down from pick 27, they'd probably have a 2nd pick in this range, so both would be possibilities.
FOURTH ROUND:
Bear in mind that at this point, the Boys don't have a fifth round pick, so I'll be including some players that currently carry a fifth round grade here. Of course, it's always possible (even likely) that Trader Jerry will get involved in the proceedings, and a fifth rounder might appear, but I don't have the first clue how to project such possibilities, so I'm going with the assumption they won't have a fifth.
Jordan Shipley, WR/KR, Texas... 5-11, 195 pounds, 4.5 second 40
Garrett Graham, TE/FB, Wisconsin... 6-3, 245 pounds, 4.7 second 40
Marshall Newhouse, OG/OT/C, TCU... 6-4, 320 pounds, 5.0 second 40
Arthur Moats, OLB, James Madison... 6-0, 245 pounds, 4.65 second 40
Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Kansas... 6-2, 206 pounds, 4.5 second 40
Emmanuel Sanders, WR/KR, SMU... 5-11, 186 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Comments-- Please, don't hate me because I'm a Horns Homer, but even though I haven't read that the Boys have any interest in Shipley, I really hope they do. On pure talent, I think he should be at least a second round pick, but he's overaged for a draft prospect, he has had a fairly lengthy injury history in college, and he didn't wow scouts with his straight line speed in offseason workouts (I think he's faster than he clocked, in fact I think he's significantly faster, but he didn't show it). All of these factors will likely combine to push him down further than he should go. But friends, if he's still on the board at pick 125, I'll be praying that the Boys send a card with his name on it up to the podium. I say this because after watching him the last 2 years, I'm firmly convinced he's going to be a very good slot receiver for somebody. Believe what you want about his speed, but he can get separation, because he is undeniably quick, and he runs crisp, precise routes. Romo would know he could count on Jordan to be exactly where he's supposed to be on any pattern, and so he'd have confidence in going to him-- particularly since Shipley also has very good hands. The guy offers other intangibles as well, he sees the field well, making him dangerous after the catch, and he's a very good punt returner. Give him a crease, and he's gone.
OK, enough gushing about Ship, on to the other prospects here. Graham is another of those TE/FB tweeners, who falls further in the draft than Harbor or Dickerson simply because he's not as fast as they are. He does have talent, though. Newhouse is a particular favorite of mine, and not just because of the size/speed numbers, though they're undeniably excellent. He played guard at TCU, but could easily project to tackle in the NFL, because in the offense the Horned Frogs play, they use wide splits which basically puts all of their linemen "on an island". I also like that some scouts are projecting that with his quick first step, he could possibly move to center. You've got to like a possible backup at all five positions along the line.
I only learned about the Boys' interest in Briscoe and Sanders today, both will apparently be coming in for the annual Dallas Day early this coming week. Of the two, I like Sanders for the Boys better, even though Briscoe is bigger. Emmanuel is a cat-quick player, who despite his size is willing to block; he's also SMU's all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs. In other words, he was ultra-productive for a rather mediocre program. If the Boys want to add a receiver to the mix, this might be the time, and Sanders might well be the player.
I personally like Moats, because I live near JMU, and I've seen him play some. He's been all over the field, a real force at the I-AA level. Again, though, I just don't think the Boys really need an outside 'backer.
And the pick is-- I'd love for it to be Shipley, I'm totally in the tank for Jordan. But I really don't see that happening (he might not last this long, and the Boys have shown no interest in him that I've heard about). I'd be almost as happy with Newhouse, though, since I think upgrading the offensive line should be a top priority in this draft.
SIXTH ROUND
Travis Goethel, ILB/OLB, Arizona State... 6-3, 240 pounds, 4.6 second 40
Robert Johnson, FS, Utah... 6-2, 205 pounds, 4.55 second 40
Roddrick Muckelroy, OLB, Texas... 6-2, 245 pounds, 4.65 second 40
John Conner, FB, Kentucky... 5-11, 245 pounds, 4.65 second 40
David Reed, WR/KR, Utah... 6-0, 190 pounds, 4.5 second 40
Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri... 6-5, 216 pounds, 4.55 second 40 (est.)
Comments-- At this late stage of the draft, I could easily justify going after Goethel to improve the depth at ILB. Keith Brooking isn't getting any younger, but I don't see the position as a glaring enough need that you necessarily have to address it early in the draft. Johnson is a particular favorite of mine, even though his raw computer numbers aren't eye-popping; all he does is make plays in big games, and I think the Cowboys really need some of that ability in their secondary. They've simply got to force more turnovers. Muckelroy was a solid outside linebackers for the Longhorns, but I think after watching him these last few years that his skillset would translate nicely to inside 'backer, so the Cowboys' interest in him makes some sense to me.
Reed and Alexander would be two more late round prospects to consider at WR, especially Alexander. The kid led the nation in receiving yards last year, so he's been productive, but unfortunately, he had to have his third knee surgery after getting hurt in the Senior Bowl. The injury coming this close to the draft will hurt his stock, as will the fact it's his third operation. But if the knee checks out OK, he might be a real steal this late in the draft.
Then there's John Conner. Spare me the "Terminator" jokes, even though some of them crack me up; I think the Boys are likely to get rid of Deon Anderson after his boneheaded, gun-related run-in with the law, so they'll be needing a fullback. Conner is the best pure lead-blocking fullback in this draft. 'Nuff said, I think.
And the pick is-- Conner. I want to find another Moose, in the worst way. If this kid can catch the ball out of the backfield (he has 25 career receptions for 195 yards and 4 TDs, so the jury's out on that one), his blocking skills are Moose-esque...
SEVENTH ROUND:
Jameson Konz, FB/TE, Kent State... 6-4, 235 pounds, 4.4 second 40
Larry Hart, OLB, Central Arkansas... 6-0, 245 pounds, 4.6 second 40
J'Marcus Webb, OT, West Texas A&M... 6-7, 325 pounds, 5.3 second 40
Duke Calhoun, WR, Memphis... 6-2, 195 pounds, 4.5 second 40
Kevin Jurovich, WR/KR, San Jose State... 5-11, 186 pounds, 4.45 second 40
Nic Richmond, OT. TCU... 6-7, 306 pounds, 5.3 second 40
Comments-- Konz is a kind of a poor man's Dorin Dickerson (except a little bigger). Like Dickerson, he's astonishingly fast for a player that big, but Dorin has two advantages that explain his higher draft ranking-- he played for a big-time program at Pitt, while Konz played for Kent State, and Jameson only moved to offense in his final season in college. Before that, he was a linebacker. But if the Boys haven't addressed the FB situation before this, I'd certainly make him my top priority in the seventh round. Again, that speed swinging out of the backfield would be a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators, and as a former linebacker, I suspect he's fond enough of hitting people to make a nice blocker.
Webb and Richmond are two intriguing late round tackles that the Boys have shown interest in, I prefer J'Marcus because he's bigger. But Nic has the frame at 6-7 to put on some pounds in the pros. Though I've often said that I think the Boys are set at outside linebacker, you just can't ignore Hart's production at the position in his two years at Central Arkansas; we're talking 23 sacks, 31.5 tackles for loss, 5 forced fumbles and 3 blocked kicks. I have to think there's a place in the NFL for a player like that, even given his low level of competition.
And then there's the two wide receivers, Calhoun and Jurovich. Duke was ultra-productive at Memphis, setting school career records for receptions (212) and receiving yards (2981). Jurovich is a bit smaller, pretty productive in his own rights, and adds the extra dimension of being a kick returner. Both are projected as undrafted rookie free agents right now, but if the Boys really like one of them (and given their track record in recent years for uncovering talented receivers late, I'm inclined to trust their judgement on this one), they might be wise to grab him with their last pick.
And the pick is-- Konz if the fullback situation hasn't been addressed, otherwise go with Webb.
And so, having offered all my assorted options, I present my "official" mock draft. Alas, I don't think Iupati or Thomas will be there at pick 27, which puts my trade down scenario into play. Looking at what I've already written, I think this is the way I'd go:
2a) Vladimir Ducasse, OL, Massachusetts
2b) Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, DB, Indiana (Pa.)
3a) Dorin Dickerson, TE/FB, Pitt
3b) Jordan Shipley, WR/KR, Texas (allow me this one bit of self-indulgence)
4) Marshall Newhouse, OL, TCU
6) John Conner, FB, Kentucky
7) J'Marcus Webb, OT, West Texas A&M
I have to admit, with all the inactivity at Valley Ranch to this point in the offseason, I'm less confident in this mock than any I've written before. I just haven't seen any real sign of what direction they want to go in, so I'm guessing even more than usual. But what the hell, I hope this exercise in futility has at least given you my take on the team's overall draft philosophy this year, and a heads up as to what players they may like. I tried very hard to emphasize players we know they like over my own pet cats this year. Happily for me, some of my pet cats are also players they've looked at.
And now that I've posted this, I can get to work on organizing my spreadsheets. I hope to have them ready to share by next weekend. You readers are of course cordially invited to discuss and debate this lengthy post, but BE NICE.
Yeah, that'll happen...
DAL @ GB
