silverbear
Semi-Official Loose Cannon
- Messages
- 24,195
- Reaction score
- 25
As Tax Day has come and gone, it occurs to me that I'd better write up my annual analysis, or it will be a postmortem. I have procrastinated as long as I possibly can, I don't recall ever writing it this late.
That might prove to be a good thing, though, as each day passes I learn a little more about players the Boys might be interested in, and get a little more of a picture as to what their draft philosophy might be this year.
Waiting also let me find out if Miles Austin was going to hit the free agent highway, now I know he isn't, and that changes the need to add a WR, makes it a bit less critical. Like last year, Jerry has done a pretty good job of filling the most glaring team needs in free agency-- Jon Kitna replaces Brad Johnson, and represents a serious upgrade at backup quarterback; Igor Olshansky replaces Chris Canty, giving the Boys more of a run stuffer, but sacrificing some pass rush as a tradeoff; Keith Brooking replaces Zach Thomas, one aging vet for another, but Brookings' game might be a better fit for the way the Boys run the 3-4 defense; Gerald Sensabaugh replaces Roy Williams, who sadly seems to be a shadow of the player he once was.
It should be noted that the Boys might not be done with free agency quite yet, they might have one more move in them. While getting DeMarcus Ware a new deal will eat up a lot of their remaining cap space, they're currently a little under 10.5 million under the cap, so there should be a few dollars left over to add another veteran at a position of need, if they choose. I would have liked for them to look at WR Torry Holt, but he's apparently all but signed with the Jaguars. There are two other veteran free agents out there that I think they ought to look at, though-- Elton Brown, the big guard/tackle from Arizona (Leonard Davis ought to be able to give the Boys a fair scouting report on him), or cornerback Ken Lucas. Either one would be a terrific addition.
So the Boys are in the enviable position of not having to force any picks to address a need, they can sit and let the draft come to them. They can go into best player available mode right from the start.
Speaking of team need versus best player available, I'd like to take a second to explain my philosophy in that area, it might help you readers to understand some of the recommendations you're about to read. I believe that both approaches have flaws, and any team that strictly adheres to either of them is bound to have a bad draft. I think the best approach is a kind of synthesis of the two approaches; you set up your draft board strictly according to BPA, then cross of names as they get drafted, and when your pick comes up, you look at the 5 or 6 top players left on your board, and figure out which one of them would best fit your roster and your offensive and defensive philosophies. That's the player you draft.
In this analysis I'm not going to project any trades, simply because that gets us into fantasy land. Like most Boys fans, I expect that Jerry will be fairly active trading picks next weekend, and ultimately I look for them to wind up with 8 picks, or something in that area. This means we'll likely see more trading up than trading down (though I'd be astounded if the Boys tried to move up into the first round, I really don't see that happening). But I can't read Jerry's mind, or the minds of the other GMs around the league, and this exercise is not really intended to predict who the Cowboys will take, but rather to give us an idea what talent will be on the board at a certain stage of the draft. I'll go out on a limb and offer a mock at the end, but that's not the main thrust of this piece.
What I will do is try to pay attention to players that we've learned the Boys have an interest in, that they've worked out or interviewed in the course of the offseason. This year, I have considerably more names on that list than in any other previous year; usually I'll know about 50 or 60 players, this year the list is right at 90. I attribute this additional input to two things-- I started a thread on a number of message boards to discuss who the Cowboys were looking at, the moderators on those boards were kind enough to sticky them, and a lot of my fellow fans (you guys) were kind enough to share local newspaper reports from their areas discussing which local players had spent time with the team. The second thing is a membership I took out to NFL Draft Scout this year, that site is just TERRIFIC, well worth the price of membership. As a result of these two factors, I hope that I'll be able to an especially good analysis for you folks.
Of course, it's quite likely that they'll draft one or two players that we haven't heard they like, but a lot of the players they draft, and a lot of the undrafted free agents they'll sign after the draft, will be taken from those 90 players. So I'll be putting players we know the Boys have shown an interest in in blue fonts during this article, and I'll put players I like in italic fonts.
OK, that's more than enough prologue, on with the opinionating... warning, this is going to be a VERY long read:
PICK 51-- players who project higher than 51, but who might slide, or players the Boys might think about trading up higher in the 2nd round to acquire...
Sean Smith, CB/FS, Utah-- 6-2, 210 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Is he a big corner, a la Nnamdi Asomugha, or does he project to FS in the NFL?? Either way, I like him, and think he'd be a good addition for the Boys.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina-- 6-1, 210 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Hakeem is one of three wide receivers on the second tier in this class, behind Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin and Darrius Heyward-Bey. In a year where there wasn't this depth and talent at the receiver position, any of the three might be first rounders, and even this year any or all of them might be drafted before pick 51. But I have a hunch that one or more of them might slide, simply because I don't recall a year in which seven wideouts were drafted in the first 50 picks. Nicks is probably the most talented of these three, kind of a poor man's Michael Irvin in his playing style, but he might slide because he put on some weight after hurting his hamstring at the Combine, like 14 pounds by the time he had his Pro Day workout. I've read that he's since lost most of that weight.
Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State-- The Cowboys apparently really like Robiskie, and I can see why; he's a very smooth, very polished passcatcher, as you might expect from the son of a former NFL receiver (Terry Robiskie is his dad).
Alex Mack, C/OG, California-- 6-4, 310 pounds, 5.05 second 40... In a lot of drafts, you don't find any centers drafted in the first round, but this year there are three really good centers out there, any one of whom might wind up a first rounder. As was the case with the seven top WRs, though, I don't recall a draft that had three centers go in the top 50 picks. The Boys badly need to upgrade their backup center position from Cory Procter, and Mack would be a terrific backup/heir apparent for Andre Gurode. He's a smashmouth type of lineman, which is what I always look for.
Eric Wood, C/OG, Louisville-- 6-4, 310 pounds, 5.2 second 40... Doesn't grade out quite as high as Mack (mostly because Mack is a little more agile), but he's a similar type of player.
Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma-- 6-5, 330 pounds, 5.3 second 40... It's my opinion that Duke could compete for a starting job at left guard his rookie year, he's simply a stud. However, I am concerned about reports I've read concerning his work ethic. He's still one of my "pet cats" in this draft (I just love that Parcells-ism).
PICK 51-- if no highly rated players fall, and the Boys stay put...
James Casey, TE, Rice-- 6-3, 245 pounds, 4.7 second 40... I find the team's interest in Casey to be curious, given that they already have a perennial Pro Bowler in Jason Witten and an up and coming backup in Martellus Bennett. At the same time, Casey is a very versatile offensive weapon who could even possibly be the quarterback in the Wildcat formation. Jerry has said that he's intrigued by the possibilities of the Wildcat and would like to work it into the offense as a changeup package. Maybe that's where Casey fits their plans.
Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan-- 6-0, 200 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Keep this name in mind, assorted Metroplex Mediots have told us that the Boys really love Delmas, and they do still have a need at safety. Though he's not real big for the position, it's said that he's a wicked hitter.
William Moore, S, Missouri-- 6-0, 220 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Moore thought seriously about coming out last year, and the way things worked out, he probably should have. He was considered the best safety in the nation in 2006 and 2007, and would almost certainly have been a first round pick. But he was nicked up most of last season, and was somewhat less effective, thus his draft stock has fallen. However, he's another of my pet cats, and I believe that 2006 and 2007 are more indicative of his pro potential than 2008 was.
Jarron Gilbert, DE, San Jose State-- 6-5, 286 pounds, 4.8 second 40... This guy was born to play DE in a 3-4, he has amazing atheticism for a player that size. He also has NFL bloodlines, his father was OT Daren Gilbert, who played for the Saints.
Darry Beckwith, LB, Georgia-- 6-1, 235 pounds, 4.65 second 40... He could replace Kevin Burnett as the Cowboys' WILB on passing downs, their cover 'backer.
Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma-- 6-1, 210 pounds, 4.45 second 40... Like Robiskie, none of Iglesias' computer numbers jump out at you, but like Robiskie, he's a smooth, polished receiver with great hands. To tell you the truth, though, I have my doubts that the Boys will go with a receiver this early in the draft, especially not since what they really need is more speed in their receiver corps, and none of these early prospects really offer that. There will be blazers available in the middle rounds.
PICK 69
Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma-- 6-8, 330 pounds, 5.45 second 40... Phil reminds me of Kevin Gogan coming out of college. Kevin was a right tackle coming into the league, eventually he found his success by moving to guard. I see a similar move in Loadholt's future, his agility is a little shaky for a tackle. Back when Kevin was in the draft, I recall writing "he's as big as a mountain, and ALMOST as fast"; that would be applicable to Loadholt, too.
Sherrod Martin, FS/CB, Troy-- 6-1, 200 pounds, 4.45 second 40... DeMarcus Ware might like having another player from Troy on the roster. I have no idea if he's even on the Boys' draft radar, but I like his game.
Pat White, QB, West Virginia-- 6-0, 195 pounds, 4.55 second 40... the Boys interest in Pat goes back to Jerry's hope of using the Wildcat formation. I think he has Hines Ward/Antwan Randle-El type potential as a WR in the pros, but I'm reading that he wants to play QB, and that leaves me cold. He's just not big enough to play that position at the next level.
Darcel McBath, S, Texas Tech-- 6-0, 200 pounds, 4.55 second 40... If the Boys don't claim Delmas at pick 51, this is another safety that they're reportedly very high on. He should have some cover skills, just from working against Tech's high-octane offense in practice.
Keenan Lewis, CB/FS, Oregon State-- 6-1, 195 pounds, 4.45 second 40... if this kid can't hack it at corner, you can move him to free safety. He'll probably be pretty good at either position.
Side note-- I'm not all that excited about any of these players, and could justify trading down here, because there are a lot of players in the mid-4th round range that I really, really like...
PICK 101
Antoine Caldwell, C/OG, Alabama-- 6-3, 310 pounds, 5.25 second 40... If the Boys don't grab Mack or Wood at 51, I'll be praying they grab Caldwell. He's not quite as good as either of them, but he's not far behind, and he is perhaps the nastiest, most physical center in this draft. If you haven't figured it out by now, I like my linemen mean and hateful, and ugly.
Stephen McGee, QB, Texas A&M-- 6-3, 225 pounds, 4.6 second 40... There has been some speculation that the Boys will draft a quarterback in this draft, to groom behind Romo and Kitna and eventually replace Jon. I wouldn't if I was running the show, I'd grab one of the undrafted rookie free agents (there will be a number of intriguing prospects out there), then draft a stud quarterback in next year's draft. For sure, I wouldn't draft a quarterback this early, but the Boys like McGee, and he won't last much past this point.
Jason Williams, LB, Western Illinois-- 6-1, 240 pounds, 4.5 second 40... He has rare speed for a 240 pound man, and the Boys' 3-4 needs linebackers who can run.
Dorell Scott, DL, Clemson-- 6-3, 310 pounds, 4.9 second 40... The Boys are a little thin on the defensive line, in particular they could use a nose tackle to back up Jay Ratliff. Scott is big enough to play on the nose, but even if he's a little short for a 3-4 defensive end, he's quick enough to move out there in a pinch.
Rhett Bomar, QB, Sam Houston State-- 6-2, 225 pounds, 4.7 second 40... my views on drafting a quarterback have already been covered when discussing McGee, they're still applicable here. No need to rehash those views.
PICK 117
TJ Lang, OG/C, Eastern Michigan-- 6-4, 316 pounds, 5.15 second 40... Again, I consider it mildly important that the Boys find a capable backup for Andre Gurode, and if they haven't done so at this point, there won't be many if any left. Lang is a sleeper rising most draft boards in these last few days, and I'm intrigued by his combination of size and agility. He's a natural guard, but is agile enough to handle the pivot.
Jonathan Casillas, SS/OLB, Wisconsin-- 6-1, 225 pounds, 4.45 second 40 (before he hurt his knee)... Casillas isn't just one of my pet cats, he's one of my Super Sleeper Specials. I think he's a poor man's Darren Woodson; like Woody, he was a linebacker in college, but his relative lack of size for the position in the NFL combined with his above-average speed and cover abilities suggest a move to strong safety.
Jarett Dillard, WR, Rice-- 5-10, 190 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Oh man, would I LOVE to see this kid in a Cowboys uniform; no, he's not the burner I talked about earlier, but he's lethal from the slot. All I really need to say is Dillard holds the NCAA record for most career TD receptions, with an amazing 60. This kid defines "big play".
Jason Phillips, ILB, TCU-- 6-1, 240 pounds, 4.6 second 40... If he's healthy again, he has the speed to succeed in Wade Phillips' defensive schemes. As an added bonus, he can play a little fullback for you in a pinch.
Dannell Ellerbe, ILB, Georgia-- 6-1, 235 pounds, 4.65 second 40... I have read that some scouts consider Ellerbe to be the best cover 'backer in this draft, and with Kevin Burnett now plying his trade out in San Diego, the Boys need a good cover guy.
Side note-- this is why I'd consider strongly trading down in the 3rd round; I like ALL of these prospects a lot, and think that they'd be better fits for the Boys than those 3rd rounders would be. Of course, such a trade down would involve them getting another pick later in the draft (unless they opted for a pick in the next draft as compensation for trading down), and I have a slew of players I like in the 166 and 172 range. So trading out of the 3rd round would allow us to pick 2 from this list, and 2 from the list coming up shortly.
PICK 156
Bradley Fletcher, CB/FS, Iowa-- 6-1, 195 pounds, 4.45 second 40... Another pattern you readers might be noticing is that I like defensive backs with cornerback speed and safety size. Basically, I like versatile players.
Roy Miller, NT, Texas-- 6-1, 310 pounds, 4.95 second 40... In the interest of full disclosure, I should admit that I'm almost as hard-core a Texas Longhorns fan as I am a Dallas Cowboys fan. But I won't apologize for Roy being one of my pet cats, he's the biggest reason the Horns were so good against the run last year. He is probably my favorite nose tackle in this draft.
Sammie Lee Hill, NT, Stillman-- 6-4, 330 pounds, 5.1 second 40... Love his size, indeed all of his computer numbers, but I have to wonder if he can make the jump from Stillman to the NFL.
Johnny Knox, WR, Abilene Christian-- 6-0, 186 pounds, 4.3 second 40... You want blazers, I've got your blazer, right here.
Jaimie Thomas, OG, Maryland-- 6-4, 325 pounds, 5.3 second 40... He looks like a Hudson Houck-type lineman to me.
PICKS 166/172--since these picks are so close together, pick two from the following list (this might help make this epic length piece a LITTLE shorter)...
Greg Toler, CB, Saint Paul's (Va.)-- 5-11, 195 pounds, 4.45 second 40... This, folks, is what you call a "sleeper"; Greg has been rocketing up the charts, a month ago nobody would have predicted that he'd even be drafted. As is the case with Sammie Lee Hill, I'm leery of the level of competition he faced. He's never seen anywhere near the kind of talent he'll see in the NFL, but hey, some small school kids make that jump.
Dan Gronkowski, TE, Maryland-- 6-5, 255 pounds, 4.75 second 40... My second Super Sleeper Special. I've already noted that the Boys have two fine tight ends in Witten and Bennett, but after that the pickings get pretty slim; the only other tight end on the roster is converted basketball player Rodney Hannah, and he's a pure receiving type. So I think the Boys could be and should be in the market for a pure blocking TE, and that's Gronk's game. He's certainly got the name for it.
Louis Vasquez, OG, Texas Tech-- 6-5, 330 pounds, 5.25 second 40... He's big enough to suit Hudson Houck, and he's pretty agile for a guy that size. Having played for Tech, you'd think he'd be pretty well-schooled in the art of pass blocking.
Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State-- 6-5, 220 pounds, 4.85 second 40... If the Boys simply must draft a quarterback this year, this is the time to do it (late 5th/early 6th round) and this is the player they should be targeting.
Roger Allen, OG, Missouri Western-- 6-3, 325 pounds, 5.3 second 40... Folks, this guy is VERY strong, and agile enough to make it in the NFL.
Chris Baker, DT, Hampton-- 6-2, 325 pounds, 4.95 second 40... If the Boys haven't claimed a nose tackle by now, this is about the last one out there with a draftable grade. I think he only slides this far because of some character issues (he got into some fights).
Cornelius Lewis, OG/OT, Tennessee State-- 6-4, 325 pounds, 5.2 second 40... Just look at all the BIG offensive linemen that the Boys have shown an interest in in the middle to late rounds-- Jaimie Thomas, Louis Vasquez, Roger Allen, Cornelius Lewis and one yet to be mentioned, Robert Brewster. This strongly suggests that they'll be looking for offensive linemen late, and they're getting serious about getting Hudson Houck some more of those "big butts" he used to talk about.
Phillip Hunt, OLB, Houston... 6-1, 245 pounds, 4.75 second 40... The Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year, Hunt played DE in college, but will likely have to move to OLB in the NFL. To that end, he has lost 15 pounds, in an effort to prove that he can handle dropping back into coverage occasionally.
PICKS 198/208/210-- again, a group of picks bunched close together, so the Boys will be drawing from the same general talent pool for each pick, so I'm lumping all the candidates together. So pick three from the prospects below...
Quan Cosby, WR, Texas-- 5-9, 195 pounds, 4.45 second 40... yet another of my Super Sleeper Specials, and a case of me indulging my Horns bias. Really, though, Quan would be rated MUCH higher but for his lack of height, and the fact that he'll be 26 years old at the start of the 09 season. He played minor league baseball for a few years before heading to college. But Quan is a dangerous slot receiver, surprisingly physical for his size, and he offers you a little something as a returner, which the Cowboys could use.
Ra'Shon Harris, DL, Oregon-- 6-4, 300 pounds, 4.9 second 40... I think the Cowboys see some Jay Ratliff in Harris. I think he'd be most effective as a 3-4 DE.
Antonio Appleby, ILB, Virginia-- 6-4, 245 pounds, 4.7 second 40... Appleby played in Al Groh's 3-4 at Virginia, which is quite similar to the way the Boys run their 3-4, so he wouldn't have quite as steep a learning curve as most other prospects would.
Robert Brewster, OG/OT, Ball State-- 6-4, 325 pounds, 5.3 second 40... We've already touched briefly on Brewster, he'd be a nice addition this late in the draft.
Brice McCain, CB, Utah-- 5-9, 186 pounds, 4.35 second 40... Sean Smith might have gotten all of the press at Utah, but McCain was the corner other teams tried to avoid. He has the speed to make it in the NFL...
PICK 224
At this point, I'm going to throw out a lot of possibilities, many of whom might otherwise become undrafted rookie free agents.
Everette Pedescleaux, DE, Northern Iowa-- 6-6, 306 pounds, 4.95 second 40... He has the prototypical computer numbers of a 3-4 DE.
Dallas Reynolds, C/OG/OT, BYU-- 6-5, 310 pounds, 5.3 second 40... He has the versatility that you look for in late-round picks, and with that name he was born to play for the Boys...
Khalif Mitchell, DT, East Carolina-- 6-5, 316 pounds, 5.05 second 40... He has the size to plug the middle in a 3-4.
Tony Carter, CB/KR, Florida State-- 5-9, 180 pounds, 4.4 second 40... The Boys are always looking to add to their team speed, and they're looking for help in the kick return game. Carter offers both.
Michael Ray Garvin, CB/KR, Florida State-- 5-8, 175 pounds, 4.25 second 40... Garvin offers pretty much what his teammate Carter does, and that's why the Boys like him. He's a bit smaller than Carter, but a bit faster.
Jose Valdez, OT, Arkansas-- 6-5, 316 pounds, 5.15 second 40... I really don't know why Valdez is rated this low, but I'll bet any draftable Razorback is on Jerry's radar.
Dan Skuta, OLB, Grand Valley State-- 6-3, 250 pounds, 4.7 second 40... The 7th round is the time to take flyers on prospects from small schools, like Dan.
Now that I've given you a bunch of options for each pick, it's time for your friendly local Bear to man up, risk public humiliation, and offer up his final 2009 mock draft... assuming no trades, which is a dangerous assumption, this is how I'd like it shake out:
51-- Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma... the "character issues" I referred to earlier have nothing to do with drug use or thug behavior, it's good old-fashioned laziness. Inasmuch as I believe that Duke has more talent than any other offensive lineman in this draft, I'm willing to gamble on greatness here, putting my faith in Hudson Houck's ability to light a fire under Duke's wide backside.
69-- Darcel McBath, S, Texas Tech... this pick doesn't get me excited, but the Boys need safety help, they like McBath, and this is the range he's likely to go in.
101-- Antoine Caldwell, C/OG, Alabama... I know, I know, two offensive linemen in the first 3 picks. Live with it, my top priority in this draft was to beef up the interior of the offensive line, especially to find a quality backup for Andre Gurode. I just don't want to see Cory Procter on the field any more. Well, with Robinson and Caldwell, the Boys will have upgraded the interior of their offensive line, big time, with two prospects who look like Hudson Houck-type linemen to me.
117-- Jarett Dillard, WR, Rice... Jimmy Johnson always said you need playmakers to win in the NFL; Dillard is a playmaker.
156-- Roy Miller, NT, Texas... a quality backup for Jay Ratliff at nose tackle.
166-- Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State... I've already said that I wouldn't draft a quarterback in this draft, but everything I've read suggests to me that they will, so this pick is a nod to that reality.
172-- Phillip Hunt, OLB, Houston... help for an already effective pass rush.
198-- Antonio Appleby, ILB, Virginia... a linebacker already well-schooled in the 3-4 defense.
208-- Robert Brewster, OT/OG, Ball State... we've already added a guard and a center, now we've added backups all across the offensive line.
210-- Brice McCain, CB, Utah... pure speed.
224-- Dan Skuta, OLB, Grand Valley State... this year's Erik Walden?
And there you have it, gang; now I think I'm gonna go sleep until the draft. This analysis took HOURS to type up, the words usually flow a little more easily then they did this morning.
That might prove to be a good thing, though, as each day passes I learn a little more about players the Boys might be interested in, and get a little more of a picture as to what their draft philosophy might be this year.
Waiting also let me find out if Miles Austin was going to hit the free agent highway, now I know he isn't, and that changes the need to add a WR, makes it a bit less critical. Like last year, Jerry has done a pretty good job of filling the most glaring team needs in free agency-- Jon Kitna replaces Brad Johnson, and represents a serious upgrade at backup quarterback; Igor Olshansky replaces Chris Canty, giving the Boys more of a run stuffer, but sacrificing some pass rush as a tradeoff; Keith Brooking replaces Zach Thomas, one aging vet for another, but Brookings' game might be a better fit for the way the Boys run the 3-4 defense; Gerald Sensabaugh replaces Roy Williams, who sadly seems to be a shadow of the player he once was.
It should be noted that the Boys might not be done with free agency quite yet, they might have one more move in them. While getting DeMarcus Ware a new deal will eat up a lot of their remaining cap space, they're currently a little under 10.5 million under the cap, so there should be a few dollars left over to add another veteran at a position of need, if they choose. I would have liked for them to look at WR Torry Holt, but he's apparently all but signed with the Jaguars. There are two other veteran free agents out there that I think they ought to look at, though-- Elton Brown, the big guard/tackle from Arizona (Leonard Davis ought to be able to give the Boys a fair scouting report on him), or cornerback Ken Lucas. Either one would be a terrific addition.
So the Boys are in the enviable position of not having to force any picks to address a need, they can sit and let the draft come to them. They can go into best player available mode right from the start.
Speaking of team need versus best player available, I'd like to take a second to explain my philosophy in that area, it might help you readers to understand some of the recommendations you're about to read. I believe that both approaches have flaws, and any team that strictly adheres to either of them is bound to have a bad draft. I think the best approach is a kind of synthesis of the two approaches; you set up your draft board strictly according to BPA, then cross of names as they get drafted, and when your pick comes up, you look at the 5 or 6 top players left on your board, and figure out which one of them would best fit your roster and your offensive and defensive philosophies. That's the player you draft.
In this analysis I'm not going to project any trades, simply because that gets us into fantasy land. Like most Boys fans, I expect that Jerry will be fairly active trading picks next weekend, and ultimately I look for them to wind up with 8 picks, or something in that area. This means we'll likely see more trading up than trading down (though I'd be astounded if the Boys tried to move up into the first round, I really don't see that happening). But I can't read Jerry's mind, or the minds of the other GMs around the league, and this exercise is not really intended to predict who the Cowboys will take, but rather to give us an idea what talent will be on the board at a certain stage of the draft. I'll go out on a limb and offer a mock at the end, but that's not the main thrust of this piece.
What I will do is try to pay attention to players that we've learned the Boys have an interest in, that they've worked out or interviewed in the course of the offseason. This year, I have considerably more names on that list than in any other previous year; usually I'll know about 50 or 60 players, this year the list is right at 90. I attribute this additional input to two things-- I started a thread on a number of message boards to discuss who the Cowboys were looking at, the moderators on those boards were kind enough to sticky them, and a lot of my fellow fans (you guys) were kind enough to share local newspaper reports from their areas discussing which local players had spent time with the team. The second thing is a membership I took out to NFL Draft Scout this year, that site is just TERRIFIC, well worth the price of membership. As a result of these two factors, I hope that I'll be able to an especially good analysis for you folks.
Of course, it's quite likely that they'll draft one or two players that we haven't heard they like, but a lot of the players they draft, and a lot of the undrafted free agents they'll sign after the draft, will be taken from those 90 players. So I'll be putting players we know the Boys have shown an interest in in blue fonts during this article, and I'll put players I like in italic fonts.
OK, that's more than enough prologue, on with the opinionating... warning, this is going to be a VERY long read:
PICK 51-- players who project higher than 51, but who might slide, or players the Boys might think about trading up higher in the 2nd round to acquire...
Sean Smith, CB/FS, Utah-- 6-2, 210 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Is he a big corner, a la Nnamdi Asomugha, or does he project to FS in the NFL?? Either way, I like him, and think he'd be a good addition for the Boys.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina-- 6-1, 210 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Hakeem is one of three wide receivers on the second tier in this class, behind Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin and Darrius Heyward-Bey. In a year where there wasn't this depth and talent at the receiver position, any of the three might be first rounders, and even this year any or all of them might be drafted before pick 51. But I have a hunch that one or more of them might slide, simply because I don't recall a year in which seven wideouts were drafted in the first 50 picks. Nicks is probably the most talented of these three, kind of a poor man's Michael Irvin in his playing style, but he might slide because he put on some weight after hurting his hamstring at the Combine, like 14 pounds by the time he had his Pro Day workout. I've read that he's since lost most of that weight.
Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State-- The Cowboys apparently really like Robiskie, and I can see why; he's a very smooth, very polished passcatcher, as you might expect from the son of a former NFL receiver (Terry Robiskie is his dad).
Alex Mack, C/OG, California-- 6-4, 310 pounds, 5.05 second 40... In a lot of drafts, you don't find any centers drafted in the first round, but this year there are three really good centers out there, any one of whom might wind up a first rounder. As was the case with the seven top WRs, though, I don't recall a draft that had three centers go in the top 50 picks. The Boys badly need to upgrade their backup center position from Cory Procter, and Mack would be a terrific backup/heir apparent for Andre Gurode. He's a smashmouth type of lineman, which is what I always look for.
Eric Wood, C/OG, Louisville-- 6-4, 310 pounds, 5.2 second 40... Doesn't grade out quite as high as Mack (mostly because Mack is a little more agile), but he's a similar type of player.
Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma-- 6-5, 330 pounds, 5.3 second 40... It's my opinion that Duke could compete for a starting job at left guard his rookie year, he's simply a stud. However, I am concerned about reports I've read concerning his work ethic. He's still one of my "pet cats" in this draft (I just love that Parcells-ism).
PICK 51-- if no highly rated players fall, and the Boys stay put...
James Casey, TE, Rice-- 6-3, 245 pounds, 4.7 second 40... I find the team's interest in Casey to be curious, given that they already have a perennial Pro Bowler in Jason Witten and an up and coming backup in Martellus Bennett. At the same time, Casey is a very versatile offensive weapon who could even possibly be the quarterback in the Wildcat formation. Jerry has said that he's intrigued by the possibilities of the Wildcat and would like to work it into the offense as a changeup package. Maybe that's where Casey fits their plans.
Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan-- 6-0, 200 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Keep this name in mind, assorted Metroplex Mediots have told us that the Boys really love Delmas, and they do still have a need at safety. Though he's not real big for the position, it's said that he's a wicked hitter.
William Moore, S, Missouri-- 6-0, 220 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Moore thought seriously about coming out last year, and the way things worked out, he probably should have. He was considered the best safety in the nation in 2006 and 2007, and would almost certainly have been a first round pick. But he was nicked up most of last season, and was somewhat less effective, thus his draft stock has fallen. However, he's another of my pet cats, and I believe that 2006 and 2007 are more indicative of his pro potential than 2008 was.
Jarron Gilbert, DE, San Jose State-- 6-5, 286 pounds, 4.8 second 40... This guy was born to play DE in a 3-4, he has amazing atheticism for a player that size. He also has NFL bloodlines, his father was OT Daren Gilbert, who played for the Saints.
Darry Beckwith, LB, Georgia-- 6-1, 235 pounds, 4.65 second 40... He could replace Kevin Burnett as the Cowboys' WILB on passing downs, their cover 'backer.
Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma-- 6-1, 210 pounds, 4.45 second 40... Like Robiskie, none of Iglesias' computer numbers jump out at you, but like Robiskie, he's a smooth, polished receiver with great hands. To tell you the truth, though, I have my doubts that the Boys will go with a receiver this early in the draft, especially not since what they really need is more speed in their receiver corps, and none of these early prospects really offer that. There will be blazers available in the middle rounds.
PICK 69
Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma-- 6-8, 330 pounds, 5.45 second 40... Phil reminds me of Kevin Gogan coming out of college. Kevin was a right tackle coming into the league, eventually he found his success by moving to guard. I see a similar move in Loadholt's future, his agility is a little shaky for a tackle. Back when Kevin was in the draft, I recall writing "he's as big as a mountain, and ALMOST as fast"; that would be applicable to Loadholt, too.
Sherrod Martin, FS/CB, Troy-- 6-1, 200 pounds, 4.45 second 40... DeMarcus Ware might like having another player from Troy on the roster. I have no idea if he's even on the Boys' draft radar, but I like his game.
Pat White, QB, West Virginia-- 6-0, 195 pounds, 4.55 second 40... the Boys interest in Pat goes back to Jerry's hope of using the Wildcat formation. I think he has Hines Ward/Antwan Randle-El type potential as a WR in the pros, but I'm reading that he wants to play QB, and that leaves me cold. He's just not big enough to play that position at the next level.
Darcel McBath, S, Texas Tech-- 6-0, 200 pounds, 4.55 second 40... If the Boys don't claim Delmas at pick 51, this is another safety that they're reportedly very high on. He should have some cover skills, just from working against Tech's high-octane offense in practice.
Keenan Lewis, CB/FS, Oregon State-- 6-1, 195 pounds, 4.45 second 40... if this kid can't hack it at corner, you can move him to free safety. He'll probably be pretty good at either position.
Side note-- I'm not all that excited about any of these players, and could justify trading down here, because there are a lot of players in the mid-4th round range that I really, really like...
PICK 101
Antoine Caldwell, C/OG, Alabama-- 6-3, 310 pounds, 5.25 second 40... If the Boys don't grab Mack or Wood at 51, I'll be praying they grab Caldwell. He's not quite as good as either of them, but he's not far behind, and he is perhaps the nastiest, most physical center in this draft. If you haven't figured it out by now, I like my linemen mean and hateful, and ugly.
Stephen McGee, QB, Texas A&M-- 6-3, 225 pounds, 4.6 second 40... There has been some speculation that the Boys will draft a quarterback in this draft, to groom behind Romo and Kitna and eventually replace Jon. I wouldn't if I was running the show, I'd grab one of the undrafted rookie free agents (there will be a number of intriguing prospects out there), then draft a stud quarterback in next year's draft. For sure, I wouldn't draft a quarterback this early, but the Boys like McGee, and he won't last much past this point.
Jason Williams, LB, Western Illinois-- 6-1, 240 pounds, 4.5 second 40... He has rare speed for a 240 pound man, and the Boys' 3-4 needs linebackers who can run.
Dorell Scott, DL, Clemson-- 6-3, 310 pounds, 4.9 second 40... The Boys are a little thin on the defensive line, in particular they could use a nose tackle to back up Jay Ratliff. Scott is big enough to play on the nose, but even if he's a little short for a 3-4 defensive end, he's quick enough to move out there in a pinch.
Rhett Bomar, QB, Sam Houston State-- 6-2, 225 pounds, 4.7 second 40... my views on drafting a quarterback have already been covered when discussing McGee, they're still applicable here. No need to rehash those views.
PICK 117
TJ Lang, OG/C, Eastern Michigan-- 6-4, 316 pounds, 5.15 second 40... Again, I consider it mildly important that the Boys find a capable backup for Andre Gurode, and if they haven't done so at this point, there won't be many if any left. Lang is a sleeper rising most draft boards in these last few days, and I'm intrigued by his combination of size and agility. He's a natural guard, but is agile enough to handle the pivot.
Jonathan Casillas, SS/OLB, Wisconsin-- 6-1, 225 pounds, 4.45 second 40 (before he hurt his knee)... Casillas isn't just one of my pet cats, he's one of my Super Sleeper Specials. I think he's a poor man's Darren Woodson; like Woody, he was a linebacker in college, but his relative lack of size for the position in the NFL combined with his above-average speed and cover abilities suggest a move to strong safety.
Jarett Dillard, WR, Rice-- 5-10, 190 pounds, 4.5 second 40... Oh man, would I LOVE to see this kid in a Cowboys uniform; no, he's not the burner I talked about earlier, but he's lethal from the slot. All I really need to say is Dillard holds the NCAA record for most career TD receptions, with an amazing 60. This kid defines "big play".
Jason Phillips, ILB, TCU-- 6-1, 240 pounds, 4.6 second 40... If he's healthy again, he has the speed to succeed in Wade Phillips' defensive schemes. As an added bonus, he can play a little fullback for you in a pinch.
Dannell Ellerbe, ILB, Georgia-- 6-1, 235 pounds, 4.65 second 40... I have read that some scouts consider Ellerbe to be the best cover 'backer in this draft, and with Kevin Burnett now plying his trade out in San Diego, the Boys need a good cover guy.
Side note-- this is why I'd consider strongly trading down in the 3rd round; I like ALL of these prospects a lot, and think that they'd be better fits for the Boys than those 3rd rounders would be. Of course, such a trade down would involve them getting another pick later in the draft (unless they opted for a pick in the next draft as compensation for trading down), and I have a slew of players I like in the 166 and 172 range. So trading out of the 3rd round would allow us to pick 2 from this list, and 2 from the list coming up shortly.
PICK 156
Bradley Fletcher, CB/FS, Iowa-- 6-1, 195 pounds, 4.45 second 40... Another pattern you readers might be noticing is that I like defensive backs with cornerback speed and safety size. Basically, I like versatile players.
Roy Miller, NT, Texas-- 6-1, 310 pounds, 4.95 second 40... In the interest of full disclosure, I should admit that I'm almost as hard-core a Texas Longhorns fan as I am a Dallas Cowboys fan. But I won't apologize for Roy being one of my pet cats, he's the biggest reason the Horns were so good against the run last year. He is probably my favorite nose tackle in this draft.
Sammie Lee Hill, NT, Stillman-- 6-4, 330 pounds, 5.1 second 40... Love his size, indeed all of his computer numbers, but I have to wonder if he can make the jump from Stillman to the NFL.
Johnny Knox, WR, Abilene Christian-- 6-0, 186 pounds, 4.3 second 40... You want blazers, I've got your blazer, right here.
Jaimie Thomas, OG, Maryland-- 6-4, 325 pounds, 5.3 second 40... He looks like a Hudson Houck-type lineman to me.
PICKS 166/172--since these picks are so close together, pick two from the following list (this might help make this epic length piece a LITTLE shorter)...
Greg Toler, CB, Saint Paul's (Va.)-- 5-11, 195 pounds, 4.45 second 40... This, folks, is what you call a "sleeper"; Greg has been rocketing up the charts, a month ago nobody would have predicted that he'd even be drafted. As is the case with Sammie Lee Hill, I'm leery of the level of competition he faced. He's never seen anywhere near the kind of talent he'll see in the NFL, but hey, some small school kids make that jump.
Dan Gronkowski, TE, Maryland-- 6-5, 255 pounds, 4.75 second 40... My second Super Sleeper Special. I've already noted that the Boys have two fine tight ends in Witten and Bennett, but after that the pickings get pretty slim; the only other tight end on the roster is converted basketball player Rodney Hannah, and he's a pure receiving type. So I think the Boys could be and should be in the market for a pure blocking TE, and that's Gronk's game. He's certainly got the name for it.
Louis Vasquez, OG, Texas Tech-- 6-5, 330 pounds, 5.25 second 40... He's big enough to suit Hudson Houck, and he's pretty agile for a guy that size. Having played for Tech, you'd think he'd be pretty well-schooled in the art of pass blocking.
Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State-- 6-5, 220 pounds, 4.85 second 40... If the Boys simply must draft a quarterback this year, this is the time to do it (late 5th/early 6th round) and this is the player they should be targeting.
Roger Allen, OG, Missouri Western-- 6-3, 325 pounds, 5.3 second 40... Folks, this guy is VERY strong, and agile enough to make it in the NFL.
Chris Baker, DT, Hampton-- 6-2, 325 pounds, 4.95 second 40... If the Boys haven't claimed a nose tackle by now, this is about the last one out there with a draftable grade. I think he only slides this far because of some character issues (he got into some fights).
Cornelius Lewis, OG/OT, Tennessee State-- 6-4, 325 pounds, 5.2 second 40... Just look at all the BIG offensive linemen that the Boys have shown an interest in in the middle to late rounds-- Jaimie Thomas, Louis Vasquez, Roger Allen, Cornelius Lewis and one yet to be mentioned, Robert Brewster. This strongly suggests that they'll be looking for offensive linemen late, and they're getting serious about getting Hudson Houck some more of those "big butts" he used to talk about.
Phillip Hunt, OLB, Houston... 6-1, 245 pounds, 4.75 second 40... The Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year, Hunt played DE in college, but will likely have to move to OLB in the NFL. To that end, he has lost 15 pounds, in an effort to prove that he can handle dropping back into coverage occasionally.
PICKS 198/208/210-- again, a group of picks bunched close together, so the Boys will be drawing from the same general talent pool for each pick, so I'm lumping all the candidates together. So pick three from the prospects below...
Quan Cosby, WR, Texas-- 5-9, 195 pounds, 4.45 second 40... yet another of my Super Sleeper Specials, and a case of me indulging my Horns bias. Really, though, Quan would be rated MUCH higher but for his lack of height, and the fact that he'll be 26 years old at the start of the 09 season. He played minor league baseball for a few years before heading to college. But Quan is a dangerous slot receiver, surprisingly physical for his size, and he offers you a little something as a returner, which the Cowboys could use.
Ra'Shon Harris, DL, Oregon-- 6-4, 300 pounds, 4.9 second 40... I think the Cowboys see some Jay Ratliff in Harris. I think he'd be most effective as a 3-4 DE.
Antonio Appleby, ILB, Virginia-- 6-4, 245 pounds, 4.7 second 40... Appleby played in Al Groh's 3-4 at Virginia, which is quite similar to the way the Boys run their 3-4, so he wouldn't have quite as steep a learning curve as most other prospects would.
Robert Brewster, OG/OT, Ball State-- 6-4, 325 pounds, 5.3 second 40... We've already touched briefly on Brewster, he'd be a nice addition this late in the draft.
Brice McCain, CB, Utah-- 5-9, 186 pounds, 4.35 second 40... Sean Smith might have gotten all of the press at Utah, but McCain was the corner other teams tried to avoid. He has the speed to make it in the NFL...
PICK 224
At this point, I'm going to throw out a lot of possibilities, many of whom might otherwise become undrafted rookie free agents.
Everette Pedescleaux, DE, Northern Iowa-- 6-6, 306 pounds, 4.95 second 40... He has the prototypical computer numbers of a 3-4 DE.
Dallas Reynolds, C/OG/OT, BYU-- 6-5, 310 pounds, 5.3 second 40... He has the versatility that you look for in late-round picks, and with that name he was born to play for the Boys...
Khalif Mitchell, DT, East Carolina-- 6-5, 316 pounds, 5.05 second 40... He has the size to plug the middle in a 3-4.
Tony Carter, CB/KR, Florida State-- 5-9, 180 pounds, 4.4 second 40... The Boys are always looking to add to their team speed, and they're looking for help in the kick return game. Carter offers both.
Michael Ray Garvin, CB/KR, Florida State-- 5-8, 175 pounds, 4.25 second 40... Garvin offers pretty much what his teammate Carter does, and that's why the Boys like him. He's a bit smaller than Carter, but a bit faster.
Jose Valdez, OT, Arkansas-- 6-5, 316 pounds, 5.15 second 40... I really don't know why Valdez is rated this low, but I'll bet any draftable Razorback is on Jerry's radar.
Dan Skuta, OLB, Grand Valley State-- 6-3, 250 pounds, 4.7 second 40... The 7th round is the time to take flyers on prospects from small schools, like Dan.
Now that I've given you a bunch of options for each pick, it's time for your friendly local Bear to man up, risk public humiliation, and offer up his final 2009 mock draft... assuming no trades, which is a dangerous assumption, this is how I'd like it shake out:
51-- Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma... the "character issues" I referred to earlier have nothing to do with drug use or thug behavior, it's good old-fashioned laziness. Inasmuch as I believe that Duke has more talent than any other offensive lineman in this draft, I'm willing to gamble on greatness here, putting my faith in Hudson Houck's ability to light a fire under Duke's wide backside.
69-- Darcel McBath, S, Texas Tech... this pick doesn't get me excited, but the Boys need safety help, they like McBath, and this is the range he's likely to go in.
101-- Antoine Caldwell, C/OG, Alabama... I know, I know, two offensive linemen in the first 3 picks. Live with it, my top priority in this draft was to beef up the interior of the offensive line, especially to find a quality backup for Andre Gurode. I just don't want to see Cory Procter on the field any more. Well, with Robinson and Caldwell, the Boys will have upgraded the interior of their offensive line, big time, with two prospects who look like Hudson Houck-type linemen to me.
117-- Jarett Dillard, WR, Rice... Jimmy Johnson always said you need playmakers to win in the NFL; Dillard is a playmaker.
156-- Roy Miller, NT, Texas... a quality backup for Jay Ratliff at nose tackle.
166-- Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State... I've already said that I wouldn't draft a quarterback in this draft, but everything I've read suggests to me that they will, so this pick is a nod to that reality.
172-- Phillip Hunt, OLB, Houston... help for an already effective pass rush.
198-- Antonio Appleby, ILB, Virginia... a linebacker already well-schooled in the 3-4 defense.
208-- Robert Brewster, OT/OG, Ball State... we've already added a guard and a center, now we've added backups all across the offensive line.
210-- Brice McCain, CB, Utah... pure speed.
224-- Dan Skuta, OLB, Grand Valley State... this year's Erik Walden?
And there you have it, gang; now I think I'm gonna go sleep until the draft. This analysis took HOURS to type up, the words usually flow a little more easily then they did this morning.
:
