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Bear’s Annual Look at the Draft, v. 2008
The calendar has wound its way to April, meaning the religious holiday that NFL fans know as the draft is mere weeks away. Of course, for some of us the draft is a year long hobby/obsession, the research for the next year’s draft starting almost as soon as Mr. Irrelevant (the final pick in each year’s draft) is announced. Your friendly local Bear in one such lost soul. Well, the research is almost done—it will continue until literally the final hours before the draft—now it’s time to start the guesswork, err, I mean, the predictions.
It has been an uneventful free agency period, because the Boys are looking to the future, and making plans to re-sign some of their key players who will come up for renegotiation (Terence Newman). This is responsible, keeping an eye to the future, but it’s frustrating for the fans. It also makes it somewhat harder to speculate about their draft plans. They have made one free agent move, signing veteran Zach Thomas, which nicely upgrades the inside linebacker corps.
Rendering the exercise more difficult still are the rumors running rampant these days, regarding a trade for Adam (PacMan) Jones, and possible trade for a veteran wide receiver. The hot rumors about the latter move involve Detroit’s Roy Williams, Arizona’s Anquan Boldin and Cincinnati’s Chad Johnson. Either move will involve the trading of draft picks, so we don’t really know at this point what picks the Boys will ultimately wind up with. Of course, to a lesser extent that’s true every year, we know how Jerry loves to wheel and deal on draft day.
All of this won’t keep me from taking my best shot at analyzing what my favorite team might do in this draft. I’ve been wrong before.
At this moment, the rumor mill says that the Boys will send Tennessee their fourth round pick for PacMan, and it is being speculated that Jerry is willing to trade his second first round pick, number 28 overall, for one of those veteran receivers; to stray from the main topic for a moment, if I had to guess, I’d guess that Roy Williams is the primary target, Anquan Boldin would be next on the wish list, and Chad Johnson would be a real long shot (because of the cap hit the Bengals would have to eat if they traded him).
I propose to work on the assumption that the Boys will trade their 4th rounder for Jones, but I’ll hedge my bets by forecasting a scenario in which the Boys do not trade for a veteran wideout. I sure do hope that this rumor is correct, though, there are no wide receivers in this draft that are likely to be as good as Roy Williams or Anquan Boldin.
Most of you reading this are serious Cowboys fans, so I probably don’t have to tell you that they’ll be targeting cornerback, wide receiver and running back in this draft. They have parted company with Nate Jones and Jacques Reeves at corner, and both Terence Newman and Anthony Henry are on the wrong side of 30. If they do sign PacMan, they’ll still want to look at a corner early, because if reinstated, he’ll still be on an extremely short leash with the league office; one misstep off the field, and he’s suspended for a long time. This year’s group of corners is very, very good anyway, and it always makes sense to take advantage of a draft’s strength.
The Cowboys also have age issues at wide receiver, Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens are pretty long in the tooth by NFL standards too. Jerry has been quite vocal about wanting to find a dangerous complement to TO. The need at running back is for a backup to Marion Barber, though some fans would have the Cowboys package their first round picks to trade up for Darren McFadden, who would almost certainly become the starter if that happened (more on that later). Julius Jones and Tyson Thompson are no longer Cowboys, besides Barber the only running back on the roster is Alonzo Coleman, who spent last season on the practice squad.
The team also has some lesser needs, that I’d look for them to address later in the draft. They need another fullback, now that Oliver Hoyte has been released due to injury issues. The only fullback on the roster right now is Deon Anderson, and a longshot, Ronnie Cruz. I also see a need at nose tackle, a backup for Tank Johnson (I think that Jay Ratliff is better off at defensive end in the long run).
Other needs include a backup center, preferably one who can play guard as well. With Hudson Houck back running the offensive line, look for the Cowboys to draft big here. The team could use a good safety, in particular a strong safety to back up Roy Williams, with Keith Davis no longer a part of the team. Last but not least, the reports are that they’d like to upgrade their backup quarterback, and most of the good free agent signal callers are already signed. However, I have recently read that the Bucs’ Chris Simms is on the trade block, and I would not be upset if Jerry were to send Tampa Bay a late round pick for him.
So, I see the Boys looking closely at CB, WR, RB, FB, NT, C, SS and even a QB in this draft. They probably won’t be able to address all of these issues, because they may spend more than one pick on some of the bigger needs. But that’s my starting blueprint for projecting their draft plans. So now, on with the speculation, players listed in italics are players that the Boys have demonstrated some interest in this offseason, the rest are players I personally think would be a good fit:
FIRST ROUND (pick 22, from Cleveland)
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 6-1 186 CB Tennessee St. 4.35 sec. 40
Jonathon Stewart 5-10 235 RB Oregon St. 4.5 sec. 40
Mike Jenkins 5-10 195 CB S. Florida 4.4 sec. 40
Aqib Talib 6-1 200 CB Kansas 4.45 sec. 40
When the Boys made the deal to trade down with the Browns in the first round last year, acquiring Cleveland’s first rounder this year, the speculation immediately began that Jerry was trying to position the team to draft Darren McFadden, the star running back from Arkansas. Jerry and Stephen fed that speculation with their comments right after the trade was made. Unfortunately for them, the Browns had a better than expected season, and this pick was nowhere near as low as it was expected to be. This might be for the best, as Jerry has apparently come to the belief that it’s too risky an investment, drafting in the top 5 of any draft. As a result, unless D-Mac were to slip out of the top ten picks, you can scratch him off your draft lists, and I don’t see him falling that far. I wouldn’t mind being wrong about this, I’m a big fan of his game.
All of the players listed above might be drafted before the Cowboys pick, but I think it’s likely that one or more of them could still be on the board at pick 22. In Stewart’s case, recent surgery for turf toe will push him further down than he would have gone if he wasn’t injured, making him a steal if he’s still on the board here. The Boys might prefer a McFadden or a Rashard Mendenhall here, but they’ll be long gone. Stewart is a very good big back, once he gets his toe healthy again, a player who could step up and shoulder a full load if Barber were to get hurt.
As I said earlier, this year’s group of cornerbacks is very good, and very deep, and even if they are able to trade for Adam Jones, they’re going to want to grab another this year. If they don’t trade for Jones, they’ll almost certainly draft more than one corner. The consensus top-rated corner is Leodis McKelvin, who will go in the first 10-15 picks. Rodgers-Cromartie has shot up most draft boards this offseason, after a series of brilliant workouts, and is now generally considered the second-best cornerback available. The Boys are reported to be quite high on him, but he might well be off the board at pick 22. After DR-C (forgive me for abbreviating the kid’s name, it’s a pain to type out repeatedly), most folks consider Mike Jenkins the third best corner, but I’m rather partial to Aqib Talib, I like his size. If he’s still on the board, and I’d rate it better than 50-50 that he will be, that’s where I’d go.
FIRST ROUND (pick 28—if the Cowboys do not trade this pick for a veteran WR)
Limas Sweed 6-4 216 WR Texas 4.45 sec. 40
Devin Thomas 6-2 216 WR Michigan St. 4.4 sec. 40
James Hardy 6-5 216 WR Indiana 4.5 sec. 40
Felix Jones 5-10 206 RB Arkansas 4.45 sec. 40
Antoine Cason 6-0 190 CB Arizona 4.5 sec. 40
If the Cowboys fail to land a veteran wideout in a trade, I see them looking closely at one here. Originally I had Oklahoma’s Malcolm Kelly at the top of my draft board, but I have read that he has two very bad knees, and now I’m leery of spending a first round pick on him. Limas Sweed is a favorite of this long-time Longhorns fan, not only for his size (you might notice that all the receivers here are big), but because he has been noted for his long TD receptions in college. I want a player with home run ability. I see a bit of Keyshawn Johnson in Sweed, except Limas is much faster than Key ever was. Devin Thomas is my second choice, and he’s only second choice because he’s basically a one year hit in college. He has the most pure speed of the first round receivers being considered. One side note—DeSean Jackson is not on my draft board, even if he is a dynamic receiver and kick returner, because of his slight build. I don’t see the potential for growth there, and I worry that he’ll get broken in half in the NFL. James Hardy would be a perfectly acceptable consolation prize if Sweed and Thomas are off the board, the guy’s huge, and has good hands.
Felix Jones would obviously only be an option if the Boys did not draft Jonathon Stewart in the first. He would be a terrific complement for Barber, a pure speed back to Marion’s power, and as a bonus, he’s a dangerous kick returner (of course, if the Boys trade for PacMan, he’ll be their kick returner). Antoine Cason is a favorite of mine, I think he’s the most NFL-ready of the corners this year. His straight line speed is marginal, but he compensates with above-average instincts.
ROUND TWO (pick 61)
Jamaal Charles 5-11 200 RB Texas 4.35 sec. 40
Chris Johnson 5-11 195 RB E. Carolina 4.25 sec. 40
Ray Rice 5-8 200 RB Rutgers 4.45 sec. 40
Kevin Smith 6-1 215 RB Central Florida 4.45 sec. 40
Chad Henne 6-3 230 QB Michigan 4.9 sec. 40
Joe Flacco 6-6 235 QB Delaware 4.8 sec. 40
I think that this is the point at which the Boys ought to look to add a backup for Marion Barber, the talent will start to thin out in the third round and on. I’d prefer that back be a speedy back, who can catch the ball out of the backfield, the “Lightning” to Barber’s “Thunder”. The Cowboys have shown a lot of interest in Jamaal Charles, which naturally pleases this Horns fan. This kid is threat to score any time he touches the ball, and in spite of not being particularly big, I think he could if needed be a lead back, capable of 300-350 carries a season. Chris Johnson is even faster, the fastest player timed at the Combine, but I’m concerned about his level of competition, and the way he racked up most of his stats in two or three games.
Ray Rice intrigues me because he has been compared to Emmitt Smith, and watching a few of his highlight videos, I see the comparison as fairly valid. Last but certainly not least is Kevin Smith, a player I feel is flying under the radar right now. I think this kid could be a star, if he lands with the right team. He needs to run from the deep I formation, but from the videos I’ve seen, he’s brilliant back there. I also like that he’s had some very good games against the tougher competition he’s faced in college.
If the Boys have already gone for a running back, then I could see them going quarterback in the second round, looking for a young signal caller to groom behind Tony Romo. They have shown interest in both Chad Henne and Joe Flacco, and this is right around the point both should be drafted. Henne has played at the higher level, but of course the Boys probably wouldn’t be reluctant to go with the small school passer, not with the success they’ve found with Romo. Flacco is big, and has a cannon arm, but would likely need some seasoning to be ready for prime time.
THIRD ROUND (pick 92)
Joseph (Red) Bryant 6-4 316 DT Texas A&M 5.0 sec. 40
Josh Barrett 6-2 225 SS Arizona St. 4.35 sec. 40
Peyton Hillis 6-1 240 FB Arkansas 4.6 sec. 40
Dre Moore 6-4 306 DL Maryland 4.9 sec. 40
Eddie Royal 5-10 186 WR Virginia Tech 4.4 sec. 40
Donnie Avery 5-11 195 WR Houston 4.4 sec. 40
Zack Bowman 6-0 195 CB Nebraska 4.4 sec. 40
As the draft moves to its second day, this is the time to be flexible, rather than targeting a specific position. You still want to look at players who fit needs, but you need to kind of roll with the flow, use the draft board to your advantage. In that spirit, Red Bryant is my favorite (if he’s still on the board, which he might not be) for this pick, a big defensive tackle who has drawn favorable comparisons to the Steelers’ fine nose tackle, Casey Hampton. My second choice would be Josh Barrett, who opened some eyes with his sizzling 40 time at 225 pounds during the Combine.
Peyton Hillis is a fullback the Boys really like; I’m higher on Owen Schmitt from West Virginia, who is a beast blocking, but Hillis probably fits the team’s needs a bit better, he’s a fine pass receiver, good blocker and can even be used in a one back backfield in a pinch. Dre Moore is the kind of defensive lineman who could play defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, or could swing inside to tackle, especially on passing downs. Eddie Royal and Donnie Avery are similar wideouts, smallish but fast, with potential as kick returners. Both are similar to Terry Glenn in that regard. Zack Bowman would be a real steal here, he would have been a first or second rounder if he hadn’t gotten injured in his senior season. However, he set concerns about his health to rest with his performance at the Combine.
FOURTH ROUND (traded for Adam “PacMan” Jones)
I’m not wild about the idea, I don’t trust the kid to stay out of trouble, but it seems inevitable that Jones will be a Dallas Cowboy, and this will be the compensation. On pure talent alone, this move would be a heist for the Boys, he not only shores up the cornerback position nicely, but he’d be the best kick returner on the team, a guy who scares opposing special teams coordinators.
For the record, if this pick is not traded for PacMan, among the players I’d look at here are quarterback Josh Johnson from San Diego (a player who really intrigues me), cornerback Terrance Wheatley from Colorado, free safety Quintin Demps from UTEP, defensive lineman Demario Pressley from North Carolina State, outside linebacker Marcus Howard from Georgia (very fast for a linebacker) and running back Justin Forsett from California… Wheatley, Pressley and Forsett are players the Boys are known to like.
FIFTH ROUND (pick 163)
Curtis Johnson 6-3 240 OLB Clark (Atlanta) 4.7 sec. 40
Marcus Monk 6-4 225 WR Arkansas 4.55 sec. 40
Brandon Keith 6-6 340 OT N. Iowa 5.2 sec. 40
Geoff Schwartz 6-7 340 OT Oregon 5.35 sec. 40
Kendall Langford 6-5 290 DE Hampton 4.95 sec. 40
Curtis Johnson is one of the fast-rising sleepers in this draft, a player the Boys apparently like. He played defensive end for Clark, but is tailor-made to play the pass-rushing outside linebacker role in a 3-4 defense. Monk is a very tall possession receiver, whose numbers weren’t great in college, but the Razorbacks were not exactly a passing offense. Some fans of Arkansas argue, only partially tongue in cheek, that Darren McFadden was the best passer on the team.
I expect the Cowboys to look at offensive linemen late in this draft, and though offensive tackle is not a particularly big need with Flozell Adams, Marc Colombo, Doug Free, James Marten, and Pat McQuistan on the roster (and Leonard Davis able to move out there as well). I think that both Brandon Keith and Geoff Schwartz are Kevin Gogan-esque, and could move inside to guard in the NFL. Kendall Langford is one of the few players in this draft who looks like he can play DE in the 3-4.
SIXTH ROUND (pick 167)
Fernando Velasco 6-4 316 C Georgia 5.15 sec. 40
Doug Legursky 6-3 310 C Marshall 5.0 sec. 40
Robbie Krutilla 6-3 316 C W. Michigan 5.25 sec. 40
Jack Ikegwuonu 5-11 195 CB Wisconsin 4.5 sec. 40
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 5-11 220 RB Mississippi 4.6 sec. 40
Caleb Campbell 6-2 230 SS Army 4.55 sec. 40
As a result of trading Jason Ferguson to the Dolphins, this pick is just 4 picks after the Cowboys’ fifth rounder, so naturally if one of the players listed in the previous section were to slide, I’d consider them for this pick too. For those who don’t know, the Cowboys also get Miami’s sixth rounder next year.
In this draft, there are a number of intriguing, big centers who are likely to still be on the board at this point, and as I’ve already mentioned, I’d really like to see the Boys upgrade from Cory Procter as Andre Gurode’s backup. Fernando Velasco tops my list, because he can play guard too. Doug Legursky is the quickest of the bunch, and of course quickness is very important for a center. Robbie Krutilla has been quite durable in his college career (as has Legursky). Any one of the three would suit me just fine.
Jack Ikegwuonu was once rated as a second or third round prospect, but he suffered a devastating knee injury in January, and probably won’t be ready to play at all this year. I still expect some team to take a late round flyer on him, and “redshirt” him in 2008. If the Cowboys like him, they’d better pick him up in the sixth round, because I don’t expect him to slide to the late seventh, when they make their final pick. It has been reported that the Boys like BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but to be honest with you, I’m not entirely sure why; he seems awfully slow for an NFL running back, and he doesn’t seem to offer much as a receiver out of the backfield. Caleb Campbell is a linebacker-sized strong safety and special teams demon. Though he went to a military academy, he has been cleared to play in the NFL if he makes a team.
SEVENTH ROUND (pick 235)
Brandon Foster 5-8 186 CB Texas 4.3 sec. 40
JoeJon Finlay 6-6 255 TE Oklahoma 4.85 sec. 40
Rodney Kinlaw 5-9 200 RB Penn St. 4.5 sec. 40
Hugh Charles 5-8 190 RB Colorado 4.4 sec. 40
I could probably list 20 or 30 players who currently look like late round or undrafted free agent types, so I figured I’d focus on players that I’ve read the Boys have shown interest in. Brandon Foster is a smallish track man, with terrific speed, and big play potential (four defensive TDs scored in his time at UT). He offers some value as a special teamer, too. I don’t know why the Cowboys would be looking at a tight end, but this late in the draft, I guess you could do worse than JoeJon Finlay. He’s a decent blocker, a fair if limited receiver, basically an all-around tight end.
Rodney Kinlaw is intriguing, he’s a solid receiver and capable kick returner who was productive in the tough Big 10. He’s only rated this low because he was really only productive his senior year, when he gained over 1350 yards rushing and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. Hugh Charles is even faster, but smaller, I’m thinking too small to succeed in the NFL.
Having come to the end of the round by round analysis, time now to go out on a limb, and “predict” how this draft might go, or more accurately, how I’d like it to go:
1a) Aqib Talib 6-1 200 CB Kansas 4.45 sec. 40
1b) Traded for WR Roy Williams (Lions)
2) Jamaal Charles 6-1 200 RB Texas 4.35 sec. 40
3) Peyton Hillis 6-1 240 FB Arkansas 4.6 sec. 40
4) Traded for CB/KR Adam “PacMan” Jones (Titans)
5) Curtis Johnson 6-3 240 LB Clark (Atlanta) 4.7 sec. 40
6) Fernando Velasco 6-4 316 C Georgia 5.15 sec. 40
7) Traded for QB Chris Simms (Bucs)
With this draft, the Boys will have addressed all of their needs except for a nose tackle and a strong safety. I could live with substituting Red Bryant for Peyton Hillis in the third round, solidifying the nose tackle position, but that would leave a need at fullback.
Mods, I know that should properly be posted on the Draft Board, but I posted it in here because this board gets a lot more traffic... you are of course welcome to move it if you feel it's the right thing to do, I just hope you'll leave it in here for a day or two or three.
The calendar has wound its way to April, meaning the religious holiday that NFL fans know as the draft is mere weeks away. Of course, for some of us the draft is a year long hobby/obsession, the research for the next year’s draft starting almost as soon as Mr. Irrelevant (the final pick in each year’s draft) is announced. Your friendly local Bear in one such lost soul. Well, the research is almost done—it will continue until literally the final hours before the draft—now it’s time to start the guesswork, err, I mean, the predictions.
It has been an uneventful free agency period, because the Boys are looking to the future, and making plans to re-sign some of their key players who will come up for renegotiation (Terence Newman). This is responsible, keeping an eye to the future, but it’s frustrating for the fans. It also makes it somewhat harder to speculate about their draft plans. They have made one free agent move, signing veteran Zach Thomas, which nicely upgrades the inside linebacker corps.
Rendering the exercise more difficult still are the rumors running rampant these days, regarding a trade for Adam (PacMan) Jones, and possible trade for a veteran wide receiver. The hot rumors about the latter move involve Detroit’s Roy Williams, Arizona’s Anquan Boldin and Cincinnati’s Chad Johnson. Either move will involve the trading of draft picks, so we don’t really know at this point what picks the Boys will ultimately wind up with. Of course, to a lesser extent that’s true every year, we know how Jerry loves to wheel and deal on draft day.
All of this won’t keep me from taking my best shot at analyzing what my favorite team might do in this draft. I’ve been wrong before.
At this moment, the rumor mill says that the Boys will send Tennessee their fourth round pick for PacMan, and it is being speculated that Jerry is willing to trade his second first round pick, number 28 overall, for one of those veteran receivers; to stray from the main topic for a moment, if I had to guess, I’d guess that Roy Williams is the primary target, Anquan Boldin would be next on the wish list, and Chad Johnson would be a real long shot (because of the cap hit the Bengals would have to eat if they traded him).
I propose to work on the assumption that the Boys will trade their 4th rounder for Jones, but I’ll hedge my bets by forecasting a scenario in which the Boys do not trade for a veteran wideout. I sure do hope that this rumor is correct, though, there are no wide receivers in this draft that are likely to be as good as Roy Williams or Anquan Boldin.
Most of you reading this are serious Cowboys fans, so I probably don’t have to tell you that they’ll be targeting cornerback, wide receiver and running back in this draft. They have parted company with Nate Jones and Jacques Reeves at corner, and both Terence Newman and Anthony Henry are on the wrong side of 30. If they do sign PacMan, they’ll still want to look at a corner early, because if reinstated, he’ll still be on an extremely short leash with the league office; one misstep off the field, and he’s suspended for a long time. This year’s group of corners is very, very good anyway, and it always makes sense to take advantage of a draft’s strength.
The Cowboys also have age issues at wide receiver, Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens are pretty long in the tooth by NFL standards too. Jerry has been quite vocal about wanting to find a dangerous complement to TO. The need at running back is for a backup to Marion Barber, though some fans would have the Cowboys package their first round picks to trade up for Darren McFadden, who would almost certainly become the starter if that happened (more on that later). Julius Jones and Tyson Thompson are no longer Cowboys, besides Barber the only running back on the roster is Alonzo Coleman, who spent last season on the practice squad.
The team also has some lesser needs, that I’d look for them to address later in the draft. They need another fullback, now that Oliver Hoyte has been released due to injury issues. The only fullback on the roster right now is Deon Anderson, and a longshot, Ronnie Cruz. I also see a need at nose tackle, a backup for Tank Johnson (I think that Jay Ratliff is better off at defensive end in the long run).
Other needs include a backup center, preferably one who can play guard as well. With Hudson Houck back running the offensive line, look for the Cowboys to draft big here. The team could use a good safety, in particular a strong safety to back up Roy Williams, with Keith Davis no longer a part of the team. Last but not least, the reports are that they’d like to upgrade their backup quarterback, and most of the good free agent signal callers are already signed. However, I have recently read that the Bucs’ Chris Simms is on the trade block, and I would not be upset if Jerry were to send Tampa Bay a late round pick for him.
So, I see the Boys looking closely at CB, WR, RB, FB, NT, C, SS and even a QB in this draft. They probably won’t be able to address all of these issues, because they may spend more than one pick on some of the bigger needs. But that’s my starting blueprint for projecting their draft plans. So now, on with the speculation, players listed in italics are players that the Boys have demonstrated some interest in this offseason, the rest are players I personally think would be a good fit:
FIRST ROUND (pick 22, from Cleveland)
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 6-1 186 CB Tennessee St. 4.35 sec. 40
Jonathon Stewart 5-10 235 RB Oregon St. 4.5 sec. 40
Mike Jenkins 5-10 195 CB S. Florida 4.4 sec. 40
Aqib Talib 6-1 200 CB Kansas 4.45 sec. 40
When the Boys made the deal to trade down with the Browns in the first round last year, acquiring Cleveland’s first rounder this year, the speculation immediately began that Jerry was trying to position the team to draft Darren McFadden, the star running back from Arkansas. Jerry and Stephen fed that speculation with their comments right after the trade was made. Unfortunately for them, the Browns had a better than expected season, and this pick was nowhere near as low as it was expected to be. This might be for the best, as Jerry has apparently come to the belief that it’s too risky an investment, drafting in the top 5 of any draft. As a result, unless D-Mac were to slip out of the top ten picks, you can scratch him off your draft lists, and I don’t see him falling that far. I wouldn’t mind being wrong about this, I’m a big fan of his game.
All of the players listed above might be drafted before the Cowboys pick, but I think it’s likely that one or more of them could still be on the board at pick 22. In Stewart’s case, recent surgery for turf toe will push him further down than he would have gone if he wasn’t injured, making him a steal if he’s still on the board here. The Boys might prefer a McFadden or a Rashard Mendenhall here, but they’ll be long gone. Stewart is a very good big back, once he gets his toe healthy again, a player who could step up and shoulder a full load if Barber were to get hurt.
As I said earlier, this year’s group of cornerbacks is very good, and very deep, and even if they are able to trade for Adam Jones, they’re going to want to grab another this year. If they don’t trade for Jones, they’ll almost certainly draft more than one corner. The consensus top-rated corner is Leodis McKelvin, who will go in the first 10-15 picks. Rodgers-Cromartie has shot up most draft boards this offseason, after a series of brilliant workouts, and is now generally considered the second-best cornerback available. The Boys are reported to be quite high on him, but he might well be off the board at pick 22. After DR-C (forgive me for abbreviating the kid’s name, it’s a pain to type out repeatedly), most folks consider Mike Jenkins the third best corner, but I’m rather partial to Aqib Talib, I like his size. If he’s still on the board, and I’d rate it better than 50-50 that he will be, that’s where I’d go.
FIRST ROUND (pick 28—if the Cowboys do not trade this pick for a veteran WR)
Limas Sweed 6-4 216 WR Texas 4.45 sec. 40
Devin Thomas 6-2 216 WR Michigan St. 4.4 sec. 40
James Hardy 6-5 216 WR Indiana 4.5 sec. 40
Felix Jones 5-10 206 RB Arkansas 4.45 sec. 40
Antoine Cason 6-0 190 CB Arizona 4.5 sec. 40
If the Cowboys fail to land a veteran wideout in a trade, I see them looking closely at one here. Originally I had Oklahoma’s Malcolm Kelly at the top of my draft board, but I have read that he has two very bad knees, and now I’m leery of spending a first round pick on him. Limas Sweed is a favorite of this long-time Longhorns fan, not only for his size (you might notice that all the receivers here are big), but because he has been noted for his long TD receptions in college. I want a player with home run ability. I see a bit of Keyshawn Johnson in Sweed, except Limas is much faster than Key ever was. Devin Thomas is my second choice, and he’s only second choice because he’s basically a one year hit in college. He has the most pure speed of the first round receivers being considered. One side note—DeSean Jackson is not on my draft board, even if he is a dynamic receiver and kick returner, because of his slight build. I don’t see the potential for growth there, and I worry that he’ll get broken in half in the NFL. James Hardy would be a perfectly acceptable consolation prize if Sweed and Thomas are off the board, the guy’s huge, and has good hands.
Felix Jones would obviously only be an option if the Boys did not draft Jonathon Stewart in the first. He would be a terrific complement for Barber, a pure speed back to Marion’s power, and as a bonus, he’s a dangerous kick returner (of course, if the Boys trade for PacMan, he’ll be their kick returner). Antoine Cason is a favorite of mine, I think he’s the most NFL-ready of the corners this year. His straight line speed is marginal, but he compensates with above-average instincts.
ROUND TWO (pick 61)
Jamaal Charles 5-11 200 RB Texas 4.35 sec. 40
Chris Johnson 5-11 195 RB E. Carolina 4.25 sec. 40
Ray Rice 5-8 200 RB Rutgers 4.45 sec. 40
Kevin Smith 6-1 215 RB Central Florida 4.45 sec. 40
Chad Henne 6-3 230 QB Michigan 4.9 sec. 40
Joe Flacco 6-6 235 QB Delaware 4.8 sec. 40
I think that this is the point at which the Boys ought to look to add a backup for Marion Barber, the talent will start to thin out in the third round and on. I’d prefer that back be a speedy back, who can catch the ball out of the backfield, the “Lightning” to Barber’s “Thunder”. The Cowboys have shown a lot of interest in Jamaal Charles, which naturally pleases this Horns fan. This kid is threat to score any time he touches the ball, and in spite of not being particularly big, I think he could if needed be a lead back, capable of 300-350 carries a season. Chris Johnson is even faster, the fastest player timed at the Combine, but I’m concerned about his level of competition, and the way he racked up most of his stats in two or three games.
Ray Rice intrigues me because he has been compared to Emmitt Smith, and watching a few of his highlight videos, I see the comparison as fairly valid. Last but certainly not least is Kevin Smith, a player I feel is flying under the radar right now. I think this kid could be a star, if he lands with the right team. He needs to run from the deep I formation, but from the videos I’ve seen, he’s brilliant back there. I also like that he’s had some very good games against the tougher competition he’s faced in college.
If the Boys have already gone for a running back, then I could see them going quarterback in the second round, looking for a young signal caller to groom behind Tony Romo. They have shown interest in both Chad Henne and Joe Flacco, and this is right around the point both should be drafted. Henne has played at the higher level, but of course the Boys probably wouldn’t be reluctant to go with the small school passer, not with the success they’ve found with Romo. Flacco is big, and has a cannon arm, but would likely need some seasoning to be ready for prime time.
THIRD ROUND (pick 92)
Joseph (Red) Bryant 6-4 316 DT Texas A&M 5.0 sec. 40
Josh Barrett 6-2 225 SS Arizona St. 4.35 sec. 40
Peyton Hillis 6-1 240 FB Arkansas 4.6 sec. 40
Dre Moore 6-4 306 DL Maryland 4.9 sec. 40
Eddie Royal 5-10 186 WR Virginia Tech 4.4 sec. 40
Donnie Avery 5-11 195 WR Houston 4.4 sec. 40
Zack Bowman 6-0 195 CB Nebraska 4.4 sec. 40
As the draft moves to its second day, this is the time to be flexible, rather than targeting a specific position. You still want to look at players who fit needs, but you need to kind of roll with the flow, use the draft board to your advantage. In that spirit, Red Bryant is my favorite (if he’s still on the board, which he might not be) for this pick, a big defensive tackle who has drawn favorable comparisons to the Steelers’ fine nose tackle, Casey Hampton. My second choice would be Josh Barrett, who opened some eyes with his sizzling 40 time at 225 pounds during the Combine.
Peyton Hillis is a fullback the Boys really like; I’m higher on Owen Schmitt from West Virginia, who is a beast blocking, but Hillis probably fits the team’s needs a bit better, he’s a fine pass receiver, good blocker and can even be used in a one back backfield in a pinch. Dre Moore is the kind of defensive lineman who could play defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, or could swing inside to tackle, especially on passing downs. Eddie Royal and Donnie Avery are similar wideouts, smallish but fast, with potential as kick returners. Both are similar to Terry Glenn in that regard. Zack Bowman would be a real steal here, he would have been a first or second rounder if he hadn’t gotten injured in his senior season. However, he set concerns about his health to rest with his performance at the Combine.
FOURTH ROUND (traded for Adam “PacMan” Jones)
I’m not wild about the idea, I don’t trust the kid to stay out of trouble, but it seems inevitable that Jones will be a Dallas Cowboy, and this will be the compensation. On pure talent alone, this move would be a heist for the Boys, he not only shores up the cornerback position nicely, but he’d be the best kick returner on the team, a guy who scares opposing special teams coordinators.
For the record, if this pick is not traded for PacMan, among the players I’d look at here are quarterback Josh Johnson from San Diego (a player who really intrigues me), cornerback Terrance Wheatley from Colorado, free safety Quintin Demps from UTEP, defensive lineman Demario Pressley from North Carolina State, outside linebacker Marcus Howard from Georgia (very fast for a linebacker) and running back Justin Forsett from California… Wheatley, Pressley and Forsett are players the Boys are known to like.
FIFTH ROUND (pick 163)
Curtis Johnson 6-3 240 OLB Clark (Atlanta) 4.7 sec. 40
Marcus Monk 6-4 225 WR Arkansas 4.55 sec. 40
Brandon Keith 6-6 340 OT N. Iowa 5.2 sec. 40
Geoff Schwartz 6-7 340 OT Oregon 5.35 sec. 40
Kendall Langford 6-5 290 DE Hampton 4.95 sec. 40
Curtis Johnson is one of the fast-rising sleepers in this draft, a player the Boys apparently like. He played defensive end for Clark, but is tailor-made to play the pass-rushing outside linebacker role in a 3-4 defense. Monk is a very tall possession receiver, whose numbers weren’t great in college, but the Razorbacks were not exactly a passing offense. Some fans of Arkansas argue, only partially tongue in cheek, that Darren McFadden was the best passer on the team.
I expect the Cowboys to look at offensive linemen late in this draft, and though offensive tackle is not a particularly big need with Flozell Adams, Marc Colombo, Doug Free, James Marten, and Pat McQuistan on the roster (and Leonard Davis able to move out there as well). I think that both Brandon Keith and Geoff Schwartz are Kevin Gogan-esque, and could move inside to guard in the NFL. Kendall Langford is one of the few players in this draft who looks like he can play DE in the 3-4.
SIXTH ROUND (pick 167)
Fernando Velasco 6-4 316 C Georgia 5.15 sec. 40
Doug Legursky 6-3 310 C Marshall 5.0 sec. 40
Robbie Krutilla 6-3 316 C W. Michigan 5.25 sec. 40
Jack Ikegwuonu 5-11 195 CB Wisconsin 4.5 sec. 40
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 5-11 220 RB Mississippi 4.6 sec. 40
Caleb Campbell 6-2 230 SS Army 4.55 sec. 40
As a result of trading Jason Ferguson to the Dolphins, this pick is just 4 picks after the Cowboys’ fifth rounder, so naturally if one of the players listed in the previous section were to slide, I’d consider them for this pick too. For those who don’t know, the Cowboys also get Miami’s sixth rounder next year.
In this draft, there are a number of intriguing, big centers who are likely to still be on the board at this point, and as I’ve already mentioned, I’d really like to see the Boys upgrade from Cory Procter as Andre Gurode’s backup. Fernando Velasco tops my list, because he can play guard too. Doug Legursky is the quickest of the bunch, and of course quickness is very important for a center. Robbie Krutilla has been quite durable in his college career (as has Legursky). Any one of the three would suit me just fine.
Jack Ikegwuonu was once rated as a second or third round prospect, but he suffered a devastating knee injury in January, and probably won’t be ready to play at all this year. I still expect some team to take a late round flyer on him, and “redshirt” him in 2008. If the Cowboys like him, they’d better pick him up in the sixth round, because I don’t expect him to slide to the late seventh, when they make their final pick. It has been reported that the Boys like BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but to be honest with you, I’m not entirely sure why; he seems awfully slow for an NFL running back, and he doesn’t seem to offer much as a receiver out of the backfield. Caleb Campbell is a linebacker-sized strong safety and special teams demon. Though he went to a military academy, he has been cleared to play in the NFL if he makes a team.
SEVENTH ROUND (pick 235)
Brandon Foster 5-8 186 CB Texas 4.3 sec. 40
JoeJon Finlay 6-6 255 TE Oklahoma 4.85 sec. 40
Rodney Kinlaw 5-9 200 RB Penn St. 4.5 sec. 40
Hugh Charles 5-8 190 RB Colorado 4.4 sec. 40
I could probably list 20 or 30 players who currently look like late round or undrafted free agent types, so I figured I’d focus on players that I’ve read the Boys have shown interest in. Brandon Foster is a smallish track man, with terrific speed, and big play potential (four defensive TDs scored in his time at UT). He offers some value as a special teamer, too. I don’t know why the Cowboys would be looking at a tight end, but this late in the draft, I guess you could do worse than JoeJon Finlay. He’s a decent blocker, a fair if limited receiver, basically an all-around tight end.
Rodney Kinlaw is intriguing, he’s a solid receiver and capable kick returner who was productive in the tough Big 10. He’s only rated this low because he was really only productive his senior year, when he gained over 1350 yards rushing and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. Hugh Charles is even faster, but smaller, I’m thinking too small to succeed in the NFL.
Having come to the end of the round by round analysis, time now to go out on a limb, and “predict” how this draft might go, or more accurately, how I’d like it to go:
1a) Aqib Talib 6-1 200 CB Kansas 4.45 sec. 40
1b) Traded for WR Roy Williams (Lions)
2) Jamaal Charles 6-1 200 RB Texas 4.35 sec. 40
3) Peyton Hillis 6-1 240 FB Arkansas 4.6 sec. 40
4) Traded for CB/KR Adam “PacMan” Jones (Titans)
5) Curtis Johnson 6-3 240 LB Clark (Atlanta) 4.7 sec. 40
6) Fernando Velasco 6-4 316 C Georgia 5.15 sec. 40
7) Traded for QB Chris Simms (Bucs)
With this draft, the Boys will have addressed all of their needs except for a nose tackle and a strong safety. I could live with substituting Red Bryant for Peyton Hillis in the third round, solidifying the nose tackle position, but that would leave a need at fullback.
Mods, I know that should properly be posted on the Draft Board, but I posted it in here because this board gets a lot more traffic... you are of course welcome to move it if you feel it's the right thing to do, I just hope you'll leave it in here for a day or two or three.
