Bear's Annual Look at the Draft, v. 2011

[silverbear]

OK, I know this is later than usual, but cut me some slack; the lockout combined with our new defensive coordinator make this a much more difficult exercise than it has been in years past. The lockout means no free agency before the draft, so while we all have a pretty good idea of what the team needs, we don't know which of these needs might be addressed in free agency. Meanwhile, with Rob Ryan now on board, the defensive players that the Cowboys target will obviously fit the mold that he wants for each position, and I just don't know enough about the new guy to know exactly what he looks for.

At the same time, there is one thing occurring thus far this offseason that is making the exercise a little easier-- we have learned more about who the Cowboys are showing an interest in than we have in years past. I don't know why that is, but whereas I've generally got a list of 50-60 names of targets for the Boys, this year I've got about 75 names on this list.

So what I propose is to use this list of 75 players, combined with their ratings on NFL Draft Scout/CBS Sportsline to project where each might go, and come up with some recommendations for each round that way.

FIRST ROUND

This round might go a number of ways, trading up, trading down or staying at pick 9. Generally, if the Boys have a pick that high I'd advocate staying where they are and getting a stud player, but this year, I'm not sure there are ten stud players available at the top of the draft. I mean, there will be plenty of talent, first round talent, but comparatively few blue chippers. That being the case, let's look at each of the scenarios I mentioned:

Trading up--

Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU... 6-0, 220 lbs., 4.3 second 40...

There's only one player that I'd trade up for, and that's Peterson. He just might be the best football player in this draft, but of course that means there's a better than fair chance that he'll be drafted by the time pick 9 rolls around. However, I have seen some scenarios where he falls to pick 5 or 6, and if that happens and I was Jerry, I'd gladly sacrifice pick 71 in the 3rd round in order to acquire Peterson.

A personal observation here; when I think of Peterson, I see him eventually moving to safety. At that position, I think he has Darren Woodson potential. So yeah, I'd be all in favor of trading up to draft him, if that option presented itself.

Staying at pick 9-- the Cowboys have several options here, depending on how the draft shakes out early:

Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska... 6-0, 206 lbs., 4.4 second 40...
Tyron Smith, OT, USC... 6-5, 310 lbs., 5.1 second 40...
Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal... 6-4, 286 lbs., 4.75 second 40...
JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin... 6-5, 290 lbs., 4.8 second 40...

Amukamara has his detractors, but he is the second best CB in this draft. His strength is press coverage, which I think fits nicely into Ryan's defensive philosophies. Smith is generally regarded as the top tackle in this draft, but he's very young and still a work in progress. I'm leery of drafting somebody who's not entirely NFL-ready in the top 10 of any draft, but while I wouldn't be thrilled if the Boys drafted Smith at 9, I wouldn't contemplate suicide either. Jordan and Watt are fine talents at DE, and the Boys are in a state of flux at that position right now. I have read that of the two, the Boys like Watt a little better.

Naturally, some of these guys might fall a few slots, and thus would factor into the next section, wherein we contemplate a small trade down.

Trade down-- in my opinion, this might be the best way to go, if the Boys aren't completely sold on Amukamara, Smith, Watt or Jordan. I wouldn't go down lower than pick 15 or 16, which would likely yield an extra 3rd rounder (this works for me, because I see a lot of talent that I like in the 3rd round range).

Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College... 6-7, 310 lbs., 5.2 second 40...
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin... 6-7, 316 lbs., 5.2 second 40...
Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida... 6-5, 306 lbs., 5.1 second 40...
Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi St.... 6-6, 310 lbs., 5.3 second 40...
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado... 6-8, 306 lbs., 4.95 second 40...

My, that's a whole bunch of offensive linemen there (in fact, every first round OL on most draft boards appear on the Cowboys' board). Given their needs along the offensive line, this isn't really all that surprising. Of the group above, I like-- in order-- Carimi, Costanzo, Sherrod and Solder. Carimi is a mean, hard-nosed player, ideally suited to playing right tackle (I think we already have our left tackle of the future, so I'm unconcerned that some scouts don't think that Carimi could play LT). Costanzo comes from a school noted for producing quality NFL offensive linemen. I'm kind of on the fence about Sherrod, and frankly don't understand their interest in Solder; I see him as better suited for a zone-blocking scheme.

BEAR'S PICK-- in my dreams, it's Peterson, but in the real world, I'll got with Carimi after a trade down.


ROUND TWO

Once again, the second round might see the Boys in trading mode, particularly if they were able to snag a second third rounder by trading down in the 1st round. I could see them packaging their second and one of the thirds to move up into the earlier second, or even the late first round. So again, let's consider two options, staying put at pick 40, or trading up.

Trading up-- if the Boys went offensive line in the first round, as I believe they should, then they'd likely be targeting defensive backs in the second. Conversely, if they were able to draft Peterson or Amukamara in the first, then the target with their next pick would likely be another offensive lineman.

Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor... 6-3, 335 lbs., 5.05 second 40...
Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor... 6-3, 310 lbs., 5.35 second 40...
Aaron Williams, CB/FS, Texas... 6-0, 205 lbs., 4.4 second 40...
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami... 5-10, 190 lbs., 4.45 second 40...

So, if the Boys drafted an offensive lineman in the first round, they might look to Williams or Harris in the 30-35 range. Although I'm a Longhorns fan, I wouldn't have advocated spending a draft pick on Aaron, simply because the Horns' pass defense was pretty bad last year. But when I read that some scouts think he could make a terrific free safety in the NFL, I went "hmmmm". They could be right.

Although I listed Watkins as a possible tradeup target, in all honesty I wouldn't go that way, simply because he's a good deal older than most draft-eligible players. On the one hand, that might make him more NFL-ready, but I keep coming back to the fact he'll be a 27 year old rookie. Now when it comes to Taylor from Baylor (I'm a poet), although I don't see DT as a pressing need as long as we have Jay Ratliff on the roster, I just think that Phil is the kind of run-stuffing presence every good 3-4 defense needs.

Staying at pick 40-- again, a handful of options would present themselves to the Boys if they choose to draft where they're scheduled to.

Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona... 6-3, 260 lbs., 4.65 second 40...
Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa... 6-4, 286 lbs., 4.75 second 40...
Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pitt... 6-4, 230 lbs., 4.5 second 40...
Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada... 6-5, 235 lbs., 4.5 second 40...
Demarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma... 6-0, 216 lbs., 4.4 second 40...

I'm not particularly excited by this list of players, to be honest with you. I mean, Baldwin is a good, big possession receiver, but I simply don't see the Cowboys going WR this early in the draft. Ditto Murray, a fine running back with good speed, but the Boys have too many other, pressing needs. As for Kaepernick, I personally like him a lot, and I have read that the Boys might want to draft an heir apparent for Romo this year if possible. But again, not with pick 40. Ballard might be a good addition, if the Boys haven't gone DL yet. Then we come to Reed, an outside backer who had an eye-opening 10 yard split when running the 40 at the Combine. This guy just has an amazingly quick first step.

BEAR'S PICK-- I'm gonna cheat here, call for another trade down and draft Wisniewski. More on him shortly.


THIRD ROUND

In my "expert" opinion, the meat of this draft is found in this round. By that I mean there are a bunch of players that the Cowboys like, and I like as well, to be found between picks 60 and 90. I will consider two scenarios here, one in which the Boys stayed put in round one, so they do not have a second third rounder, and a scenario where the Boys traded down and added another third rounder. Honestly, the latter is what I would do in this draft.

Pick 71-- I'll simply have to include one player here that I haven't read the Cowboys have an interest in, simply because if they're not interested in him, they should be. That player tops this list:

Stefen Wisniewski, C/OG, Penn State... 6-3, 316 lbs., 5.3 second 40...
Andy Dalton, QB, TCU... 6-2, 216 lbs., 4.8 second 40...
Kenrick Ellis, DT, Hampton... 6-5, 340 lbs., 5.2 second 40...
Curtis Brown, CB, Texas... 6-0, 186 lbs., 4.5 second 40...

Friends, there's a list of 4 options that I can happily live with. Wisniewski would, I think, be a terrific heir for Gurode at center (he certainly has the NFL pedigree). Dalton would be the perfect quarterback for Garrett to groom; hell, he's the second coming of Garrett as a QB. He doesn't have a powerful arm, but he's very cerebral, and a fierce leader on the field. Ellis has the same kind of tools as Phil Taylor at NT, and as such would also be a good prospect for the Boys. However, I am kind of disturbed by his off-field baggage. OK, I'm extremely disturbed by it. Brown is another Longhorns defensive back, and again, their pass defense was pretty bad. On the other hand, he was a valuable special teamer for the Horns. But can you draft a special teams stud in the 3rd round??


Later 3rd round-- when you see the list of players the Boys like here, you might understand why I'd like to have a second third round pick this year.

Will Rackley, OG, Lehigh... 6-3, 310 lbs., 5.25 second 40...
Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada... 6-1, 245 lbs., 4.4 second 40...
Edmond Gates, WR. Abilene Christian... 6-0, 195 lbs., 4.3 second 40...
Marcus Gilchrist, CB/FS, Clemson... 5-10, 195 lbs., 4.45 second 40...
Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville... 5-11, 190 lbs., 4.5 second 40...

There's a whole lot to like in that group. Rackley is a small school player that they're apparently very high on, and again, I expect the Boys to focus on adding line help in this draft. Moch has absolutely amazing speed for a linebacker, especially one that big. For a while, I speculated that with that speed he might make a good strong safety, but his skillset is better suited for rushing the passer. Gates would make a fine addition to the receiver corps, as a slot receiver with terrific speed. The Boys need a little more speed in the receiver corps. Gilchrist and Patrick would help address the team's needs in the secondary.

BEAR'S PICK-- Andy Dalton and in a surprise, Edmond Gates...


FOURTH ROUND

As I say every year, by the time you get outside the top 100 picks, you should be focusing strictly on the best player available. If that player also fits a team need, so much the better, but my philosophy is that you don't draft strictly for need in the middle and late rounds.

Marcus Gilbert, OT, Florida... 6-6, 330 lbs., 5.4 second 40...
Taiwan Jones, RB, E. Washington... 6-0, 195 lbs., 4.5 second 40...
Ian Williams, DT, Notre Dame... 6-1, 320 lbs., 5.2 second 40...
Da'Norris Searcy, SS, N. Carolina... 5-11, 225 lbs., 4.55 second 40...
Charles Clay, FB/TE, Tulsa... 6-3, 245 lbs., 4.7 second 40...
KJ Wright, OLB, Mississippi State... 6-3, 245 lbs., 4.75 second 40
Buster Skrine, CB, Tennessee-Chattanooga... 5-10, 186 lbs., 4.35 second 40...

Which way to go here?? Gilbert is the kind of big tackle that Hudson Houck likes, but he's a little slow, a little stiff. Jones was a terrific little scatback at a lower level, and I suspect he's faster than that 4.5 second 40. Williams would be a terrific pick here, if the Boys didn't draft a nose tackle earlier. Clay is a versatile fullback, one that I think matches the Cowboys' profile for a FB; he's not the blocker Marecic or Hynoski are, two players who could likely be had a bit later in the draft, but the latter two are nowhere near the threat with the football in their hands that Clay is. I'm not sure why the Boys like Wright, his numbers and his stats seem pretty pedestrian to me. But I can easily understand why they like Skrine, had has that electric speed you're looking for.

BEAR'S PICK-- Charles Clay, I have a hunch that Jason Garrett will want to find his own Moose for this offense. Clay might not be the dominating blocker that Johnston was (though he's not bad in that department), but he can be a real weapon coming out of the backfield on passing downs. Alternatively, go with Buster Skrine and upgrade your secondary.


FIFTH ROUND

As the draft starts winding down, a good team would be in full Best Player Available mode, and this will be reflected in the players the Cowboys like in this range. It's also possible (even likely) that at this point some of the players mentioned earlier will have fallen into this range, and naturally they'd then be factored into this equation.

DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas... 6-4, 316 lbs., 5.1 second 40...
Kelvin Sheppard, ILB, LSU... 6-2, 250 lbs., 4.7 second 40...
John Moffitt, C/OG, Wisconsin... 6-4, 320 lbs., 5.5 second 40...
Alex Green, RB, Hawaii... 6-0, 225 lbs., 4.45 second 40...
Zach Hurd, OG/OT, Connecticut... 6-7, 316 lbs., 5.25 second 40...
Kendric Burney, CB, N. Carolina... 5-9, 186 lbs., 4.7 second 40...
Jeremy Kerley, WR, TCU... 5-10, 190 lbs., 4.55 second 40...
Adrian Moten, OLB, Maryland... 6-2, 230 lbs., 4.5 second 40...
Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama... 6-2, 220 lbs., 4.85 second 40...
Derek Newton, OT, Arkansas St.... 6-5, 316 lbs., 5.0 second 40...
Cecil Shorts III, WR, Mount Union... 6-0, 206 lbs., 4.4 second 40...
Bilal Powell, RB, Louisville... 5-11, 206 lbs., 4.55 second 40...
Brandon Fusco, C, Slippery Rock... 6-4, 306 lbs., 5.2 second 40...

Whew, that's a long list. I won't go through all of them, instead I'll highlight some players that I like on that list. I used to be quite high on Moffitt, Carimi's teammate at Wisconsin. I liked that he's big, that he's nasty like Carimi, and that he can play center for you too. But I cooled on him considerably when I saw his 5.5 40 times at the combine. I know, offensive linemen aren't asked to run 40 yards very often, and initial quickness is more important for them. But if a a guy can't run 40 yards faster than 5.5 seconds, then I doubt that he has any initial quickness. But at the same time, it may just have been that he was hurt at the combine. Green would be a good choice here, if the Boys are looking to get rid of Marion Barber, Alex seems to be a somewhat similar back. I like Hurd, Newton and Fusco as offensive line prospects this late. If the Boys passed on drafting Gates in the third, they might well want to go with Shorts here, he was very, very productive at a low level of competion. He kind of reminds me of Patrick Crayton, only faster.

BEAR'S PICK-- a tough call here, I'd like to have more than one pick in this round. But I'll go with Fusco, I'm intrigued with his potential at center. If the Boys were able to acquire Wisniewski, though, I'd go with Newton or Shorts instead.

There's still two rounds to go, but I'm at work right now and need to get started on my nightly reports. I'll try to get back to this when I get done with the paperwork.

Damn work is always getting in the way of my fun.

 

[Canada180]

nice work Bear, altho yer boss probably doesnt think so.

 

[silverbear]

nice work Bear, altho yer boss probably doesnt think so.

I won't tell if you don't...

 

[silverbear]

Picking up where we left off...


SIXTH ROUND

The pickings are a little slimmer in this round, I've only found 3 players that the Boys have been linked to who are likely to fall into this range.

Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU... 5-11, 225 lbs., 4.65 second 40...
Da'Rel Scott, RB, Maryland... 5-11, 210 lbs., 4.4 second 40...
Schuyler Oordt, TE, N. Iowa... 6-6, 260 lbs., 4.65 second 40...

If the Boys are set on parting ways with Marion Barber, they'll need to add another back to the mix, and this might be the time to do it. Ridley is a bit slower version of the Barberian, while Scott has some impressive speed to go with decent size. Oordt might be a consideration here if the Boys have finally decided to send loudmouth Martellus Bennett packing (I would).

BEAR'S PICK-- gimme Oordt, just because I'd like to see Bennett in my rear view mirror...


SEVENTH ROUND (two picks)

It's strange how as this draft winds down, the Boys' options get clearer and clearer. There are just 4 players that they're known to like who are liable to still be on the board here, and this time all 4 are defensive players (and all of them would be a nice fit in the Cowboys' defense).

DeMarcus Van Dyke, CB/KR, Miami... 6-1, 175 lbs., 4.25 second 40...
Mark Herzlich, ILB, Boston College... 6-4, 245 lbs., 4.85 second 40...
Nick Bellore, ILB, Central Michigan... 6-1, 245 lbs., 4.7 second 40...
Korey Lindsey, CB, S. Illinois... 5-10, 186 lbs., 4.5 second 40...

Van Dyke is painfully skinny, but has world-class speed. As he learned to play corner (and bulked up), he could offer the Boys value as a kick returner. Herzlich is an inspirational story, fighting his way back from cancer. I suspect that his subpar 40 times are a function of his not being entirely healthy yet. Bellore has good numbers for an ILB, and Lindsey is a more NFL-ready corner than Van Dyke, albeit not as fast.

BEAR'S PICKS-- Van Dyke and Herzlich. Both are gambles on greatness, but worthwhile gambles this late in the draft.

OK, now it's time to boil all this down into one, definitive mock draft:

1) Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin... could start at RT from day one...

2) Stefen Wisniewski, C/OG, Penn State... the heir apparent to Gurode at C, he could see playing time at OG early on...

3a) Andy Dalton, QB, TCU... Jason Garrett gets his protege, a passer he can mold in his own image, to perhaps one day replace Romo...

3b) Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada... changed my mind here, simply because my draft was becoming entirely too offensive oriented. I really like Moch's speed, he could either be a force as a pass rusher on the outside, or with that speed he might be able to play WILB and handle cover duties.

4) Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa... others might prefer the blocking monsters Owen Marecic or Henry Hynoski, but I think Clay better suits what the Boys do with their fullbacks, in that he's a weapon as a receiver...

5) Cecil Shorts III, WR, Mount Union... since I decided to replace Edmond Gates with Dontay Moch in the third round, I have replaced Brandon Fusco with Shorts here. Like Gates, Shorts has very good speed, and would probably be an effective receiver out of the slot.

6) Schuylar Oordt, TE, N. Iowa... bye bye, 'Tellus...

7a) DeMarcus Van Dyke, CB/KR, Miami... speed kills...

7b) Mark Herzlich, ILB, Boston College... if he's still on the board this late, he'll be an absolute steal...

Critiquing my own efforts here, I wish that it had worked out that the Boys went defense more often, but I guess they can always address their defensive needs in free agency. On the plus side, this draft does address the offensive line woes pretty aggressively, and it also gives us a few more weapons for the offense to play with.

In the near future, I'll offer up a list of likely undrafted rookie free agents that the Boys have shown some interest in. And sometime next week, I'll finalize both of my spreadsheets, and publish them.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

.
I'm not sure there are ten stud players available at the top of the draft.

Whats your cut off? I think ny league standards tier 1 is Cam, Dareus, Miller, Gabbert, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Patrick Peterson, Tyron Smith, Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn. Bowers still being a question mark but he makes it 11 if they feel comfortable with his health

Trading up--

Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU... 6-0, 220 lbs., 4.3 second 40...
I'd gladly sacrifice pick 71 in the 3rd round in order to acquire Peterson.

What if the 49ers offer up their 3rd? Do you then reach into the 2012 draft or walk away?

Amukamara has his detractors, but he is the second best CB in this draft.

A lot of people like Jimmy Smith if he wasnt such a zero off the field

You really took a QB in the 3rd round? Tell me who they cut between the current 3?

 

[Duane]

I always look forward to this every year. Thanks for all the work SB.

 

[TheCount]

Good post, I'd be a little bummed with drafting yet another QB and a FB in the 4th though. Also no defensive linemen taken, what's your solution there?

 

[AsthmaField]

Thanks Bear... I enjoyed that.

Like most of your players, too.

 

[burmafrd]

Cam and Gabbert I do not think are top 10.

 

[arglebargle]

Cam and Gabbert I do not think are top 10.

They are only 'top ten' in that special, 'quarterback' way.

I agree with you, and hope that they and the two WRs go early....

 

[proline]

Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, is ever going to be looking for "the second coming of Garrett".

I also disagree slightly with needing more speed at WR. Our speed guy, Austin, just needs to get back to catching the ball better. If he's good enough to replace RW, then OK.

Other than that, great post

 

[Rockytop6]

OK, I know this is later than usual, but cut me some slack; the lockout combined with our new defensive coordinator make this a much more difficult exercise than it has been in years past. The lockout means no free agency before the draft, so while we all have a pretty good idea of what the team needs, we don't know which of these needs might be addressed in free agency. Meanwhile, with Rob Ryan now on board, the defensive players that the Cowboys target will obviously fit the mold that he wants for each position, and I just don't know enough about the new guy to know exactly what he looks for.

At the same time, there is one thing occurring thus far this offseason that is making the exercise a little easier-- we have learned more about who the Cowboys are showing an interest in than we have in years past. I don't know why that is, but whereas I've generally got a list of 50-60 names of targets for the Boys, this year I've got about 75 names on this list.

So what I propose is to use this list of 75 players, combined with their ratings on NFL Draft Scout/CBS Sportsline to project where each might go, and come up with some recommendations for each round that way.

FIRST ROUND

This round might go a number of ways, trading up, trading down or staying at pick 9. Generally, if the Boys have a pick that high I'd advocate staying where they are and getting a stud player, but this year, I'm not sure there are ten stud players available at the top of the draft. I mean, there will be plenty of talent, first round talent, but comparatively few blue chippers. That being the case, let's look at each of the scenarios I mentioned:

Trading up--

Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU... 6-0, 220 lbs., 4.3 second 40...

There's only one player that I'd trade up for, and that's Peterson. He just might be the best football player in this draft, but of course that means there's a better than fair chance that he'll be drafted by the time pick 9 rolls around. However, I have seen some scenarios where he falls to pick 5 or 6, and if that happens and I was Jerry, I'd gladly sacrifice pick 71 in the 3rd round in order to acquire Peterson.

A personal observation here; when I think of Peterson, I see him eventually moving to safety. At that position, I think he has Darren Woodson potential. So yeah, I'd be all in favor of trading up to draft him, if that option presented itself.

Staying at pick 9-- the Cowboys have several options here, depending on how the draft shakes out early:

Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska... 6-0, 206 lbs., 4.4 second 40...
Tyron Smith, OT, USC... 6-5, 310 lbs., 5.1 second 40...
Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal... 6-4, 286 lbs., 4.75 second 40...
JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin... 6-5, 290 lbs., 4.8 second 40...

Amukamara has his detractors, but he is the second best CB in this draft. His strength is press coverage, which I think fits nicely into Ryan's defensive philosophies. Smith is generally regarded as the top tackle in this draft, but he's very young and still a work in progress. I'm leery of drafting somebody who's not entirely NFL-ready in the top 10 of any draft, but while I wouldn't be thrilled if the Boys drafted Smith at 9, I wouldn't contemplate suicide either. Jordan and Watt are fine talents at DE, and the Boys are in a state of flux at that position right now. I have read that of the two, the Boys like Watt a little better.

Naturally, some of these guys might fall a few slots, and thus would factor into the next section, wherein we contemplate a small trade down.

Trade down-- in my opinion, this might be the best way to go, if the Boys aren't completely sold on Amukamara, Smith, Watt or Jordan. I wouldn't go down lower than pick 15 or 16, which would likely yield an extra 3rd rounder (this works for me, because I see a lot of talent that I like in the 3rd round range).

Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College... 6-7, 310 lbs., 5.2 second 40...
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin... 6-7, 316 lbs., 5.2 second 40...
Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida... 6-5, 306 lbs., 5.1 second 40...
Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi St.... 6-6, 310 lbs., 5.3 second 40...
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado... 6-8, 306 lbs., 4.95 second 40...

My, that's a whole bunch of offensive linemen there (in fact, every first round OL on most draft boards appear on the Cowboys' board). Given their needs along the offensive line, this isn't really all that surprising. Of the group above, I like-- in order-- Carimi, Costanzo, Sherrod and Solder. Carimi is a mean, hard-nosed player, ideally suited to playing right tackle (I think we already have our left tackle of the future, so I'm unconcerned that some scouts don't think that Carimi could play LT). Costanzo comes from a school noted for producing quality NFL offensive linemen. I'm kind of on the fence about Sherrod, and frankly don't understand their interest in Solder; I see him as better suited for a zone-blocking scheme.

BEAR'S PICK-- in my dreams, it's Peterson, but in the real world, I'll got with Carimi after a trade down.


ROUND TWO

Once again, the second round might see the Boys in trading mode, particularly if they were able to snag a second third rounder by trading down in the 1st round. I could see them packaging their second and one of the thirds to move up into the earlier second, or even the late first round. So again, let's consider two options, staying put at pick 40, or trading up.

Trading up-- if the Boys went offensive line in the first round, as I believe they should, then they'd likely be targeting defensive backs in the second. Conversely, if they were able to draft Peterson or Amukamara in the first, then the target with their next pick would likely be another offensive lineman.

Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor... 6-3, 335 lbs., 5.05 second 40...
Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor... 6-3, 310 lbs., 5.35 second 40...
Aaron Williams, CB/FS, Texas... 6-0, 205 lbs., 4.4 second 40...
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami... 5-10, 190 lbs., 4.45 second 40...

So, if the Boys drafted an offensive lineman in the first round, they might look to Williams or Harris in the 30-35 range. Although I'm a Longhorns fan, I wouldn't have advocated spending a draft pick on Aaron, simply because the Horns' pass defense was pretty bad last year. But when I read that some scouts think he could make a terrific free safety in the NFL, I went "hmmmm". They could be right.

Although I listed Watkins as a possible tradeup target, in all honesty I wouldn't go that way, simply because he's a good deal older than most draft-eligible players. On the one hand, that might make him more NFL-ready, but I keep coming back to the fact he'll be a 27 year old rookie. Now when it comes to Taylor from Baylor (I'm a poet), although I don't see DT as a pressing need as long as we have Jay Ratliff on the roster, I just think that Phil is the kind of run-stuffing presence every good 3-4 defense needs.

Staying at pick 40-- again, a handful of options would present themselves to the Boys if they choose to draft where they're scheduled to.

Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona... 6-3, 260 lbs., 4.65 second 40...
Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa... 6-4, 286 lbs., 4.75 second 40...
Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pitt... 6-4, 230 lbs., 4.5 second 40...
Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada... 6-5, 235 lbs., 4.5 second 40...
Demarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma... 6-0, 216 lbs., 4.4 second 40...

I'm not particularly excited by this list of players, to be honest with you. I mean, Baldwin is a good, big possession receiver, but I simply don't see the Cowboys going WR this early in the draft. Ditto Murray, a fine running back with good speed, but the Boys have too many other, pressing needs. As for Kaepernick, I personally like him a lot, and I have read that the Boys might want to draft an heir apparent for Romo this year if possible. But again, not with pick 40. Ballard might be a good addition, if the Boys haven't gone DL yet. Then we come to Reed, an outside backer who had an eye-opening 10 yard split when running the 40 at the Combine. This guy just has an amazingly quick first step.

BEAR'S PICK-- I'm gonna cheat here, call for another trade down and draft Wisniewski. More on him shortly.


THIRD ROUND

In my "expert" opinion, the meat of this draft is found in this round. By that I mean there are a bunch of players that the Cowboys like, and I like as well, to be found between picks 60 and 90. I will consider two scenarios here, one in which the Boys stayed put in round one, so they do not have a second third rounder, and a scenario where the Boys traded down and added another third rounder. Honestly, the latter is what I would do in this draft.

Pick 71-- I'll simply have to include one player here that I haven't read the Cowboys have an interest in, simply because if they're not interested in him, they should be. That player tops this list:

Stefen Wisniewski, C/OG, Penn State... 6-3, 316 lbs., 5.3 second 40...
Andy Dalton, QB, TCU... 6-2, 216 lbs., 4.8 second 40...
Kenrick Ellis, DT, Hampton... 6-5, 340 lbs., 5.2 second 40...
Curtis Brown, CB, Texas... 6-0, 186 lbs., 4.5 second 40...

Friends, there's a list of 4 options that I can happily live with. Wisniewski would, I think, be a terrific heir for Gurode at center (he certainly has the NFL pedigree). Dalton would be the perfect quarterback for Garrett to groom; hell, he's the second coming of Garrett as a QB. He doesn't have a powerful arm, but he's very cerebral, and a fierce leader on the field. Ellis has the same kind of tools as Phil Taylor at NT, and as such would also be a good prospect for the Boys. However, I am kind of disturbed by his off-field baggage. OK, I'm extremely disturbed by it. Brown is another Longhorns defensive back, and again, their pass defense was pretty bad. On the other hand, he was a valuable special teamer for the Horns. But can you draft a special teams stud in the 3rd round??


Later 3rd round-- when you see the list of players the Boys like here, you might understand why I'd like to have a second third round pick this year.

Will Rackley, OG, Lehigh... 6-3, 310 lbs., 5.25 second 40...
Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada... 6-1, 245 lbs., 4.4 second 40...
Edmond Gates, WR. Abilene Christian... 6-0, 195 lbs., 4.3 second 40...
Marcus Gilchrist, CB/FS, Clemson... 5-10, 195 lbs., 4.45 second 40...
Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville... 5-11, 190 lbs., 4.5 second 40...

There's a whole lot to like in that group. Rackley is a small school player that they're apparently very high on, and again, I expect the Boys to focus on adding line help in this draft. Moch has absolutely amazing speed for a linebacker, especially one that big. For a while, I speculated that with that speed he might make a good strong safety, but his skillset is better suited for rushing the passer. Gates would make a fine addition to the receiver corps, as a slot receiver with terrific speed. The Boys need a little more speed in the receiver corps. Gilchrist and Patrick would help address the team's needs in the secondary.

BEAR'S PICK-- Andy Dalton and in a surprise, Edmond Gates...


FOURTH ROUND

As I say every year, by the time you get outside the top 100 picks, you should be focusing strictly on the best player available. If that player also fits a team need, so much the better, but my philosophy is that you don't draft strictly for need in the middle and late rounds.

Marcus Gilbert, OT, Florida... 6-6, 330 lbs., 5.4 second 40...
Taiwan Jones, RB, E. Washington... 6-0, 195 lbs., 4.5 second 40...
Ian Williams, DT, Notre Dame... 6-1, 320 lbs., 5.2 second 40...
Da'Norris Searcy, SS, N. Carolina... 5-11, 225 lbs., 4.55 second 40...
Charles Clay, FB/TE, Tulsa... 6-3, 245 lbs., 4.7 second 40...
KJ Wright, OLB, Mississippi State... 6-3, 245 lbs., 4.75 second 40
Buster Skrine, CB, Tennessee-Chattanooga... 5-10, 186 lbs., 4.35 second 40...

Which way to go here?? Gilbert is the kind of big tackle that Hudson Houck likes, but he's a little slow, a little stiff. Jones was a terrific little scatback at a lower level, and I suspect he's faster than that 4.5 second 40. Williams would be a terrific pick here, if the Boys didn't draft a nose tackle earlier. Clay is a versatile fullback, one that I think matches the Cowboys' profile for a FB; he's not the blocker Marecic or Hynoski are, two players who could likely be had a bit later in the draft, but the latter two are nowhere near the threat with the football in their hands that Clay is. I'm not sure why the Boys like Wright, his numbers and his stats seem pretty pedestrian to me. But I can easily understand why they like Skrine, had has that electric speed you're looking for.

BEAR'S PICK-- Charles Clay, I have a hunch that Jason Garrett will want to find his own Moose for this offense. Clay might not be the dominating blocker that Johnston was (though he's not bad in that department), but he can be a real weapon coming out of the backfield on passing downs. Alternatively, go with Buster Skrine and upgrade your secondary.


FIFTH ROUND

As the draft starts winding down, a good team would be in full Best Player Available mode, and this will be reflected in the players the Cowboys like in this range. It's also possible (even likely) that at this point some of the players mentioned earlier will have fallen into this range, and naturally they'd then be factored into this equation.

DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas... 6-4, 316 lbs., 5.1 second 40...
Kelvin Sheppard, ILB, LSU... 6-2, 250 lbs., 4.7 second 40...
John Moffitt, C/OG, Wisconsin... 6-4, 320 lbs., 5.5 second 40...
Alex Green, RB, Hawaii... 6-0, 225 lbs., 4.45 second 40...
Zach Hurd, OG/OT, Connecticut... 6-7, 316 lbs., 5.25 second 40...
Kendric Burney, CB, N. Carolina... 5-9, 186 lbs., 4.7 second 40...
Jeremy Kerley, WR, TCU... 5-10, 190 lbs., 4.55 second 40...
Adrian Moten, OLB, Maryland... 6-2, 230 lbs., 4.5 second 40...
Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama... 6-2, 220 lbs., 4.85 second 40...
Derek Newton, OT, Arkansas St.... 6-5, 316 lbs., 5.0 second 40...
Cecil Shorts III, WR, Mount Union... 6-0, 206 lbs., 4.4 second 40...
Bilal Powell, RB, Louisville... 5-11, 206 lbs., 4.55 second 40...
Brandon Fusco, C, Slippery Rock... 6-4, 306 lbs., 5.2 second 40...

Whew, that's a long list. I won't go through all of them, instead I'll highlight some players that I like on that list. I used to be quite high on Moffitt, Carimi's teammate at Wisconsin. I liked that he's big, that he's nasty like Carimi, and that he can play center for you too. But I cooled on him considerably when I saw his 5.5 40 times at the combine. I know, offensive linemen aren't asked to run 40 yards very often, and initial quickness is more important for them. But if a a guy can't run 40 yards faster than 5.5 seconds, then I doubt that he has any initial quickness. But at the same time, it may just have been that he was hurt at the combine. Green would be a good choice here, if the Boys are looking to get rid of Marion Barber, Alex seems to be a somewhat similar back. I like Hurd, Newton and Fusco as offensive line prospects this late. If the Boys passed on drafting Gates in the third, they might well want to go with Shorts here, he was very, very productive at a low level of competion. He kind of reminds me of Patrick Crayton, only faster.

BEAR'S PICK-- a tough call here, I'd like to have more than one pick in this round. But I'll go with Fusco, I'm intrigued with his potential at center. If the Boys were able to acquire Wisniewski, though, I'd go with Newton or Shorts instead.

There's still two rounds to go, but I'm at work right now and need to get started on my nightly reports. I'll try to get back to this when I get done with the paperwork.

Damn work is always getting in the way of my fun.

Thanks Bear. I really enjoyed your perspective and insight. I will keep this post to enlighten me as the draft winds down. Keep up the good work.

 

[big dog cowboy]

OK, now it's time to boil all this down into one, definitive mock draft:

1) Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin... could start at RT from day one...

2) Stefen Wisniewski, C/OG, Penn State... the heir apparent to Gurode at C, he could see playing time at OG early on...

If nothing else that should solve most of our OL issues for a while.

I just don't see us going offense with the first 3 picks after what our D did last year. Overall a very nice effort I always enjoy reading several times before the draft each year.

 

[WilmingtonHeel]

As always great job Bear IMO I would've taken Harris or Ras I Dowling in the 2nd, corner help but it's a job well done my friend

 

[dogberry]

I don't know how you and others do this. Every time I tried to make a pick, I get buyer's remorse thinking of the 500 other football players that I could have chosen. Thank you, much to read and ponder.

 

[silverbear]

Whats your cut off? I think ny league standards tier 1 is Cam, Dareus, Miller, Gabbert, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Patrick Peterson, Tyron Smith, Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn. Bowers still being a question mark but he makes it 11 if they feel comfortable with his health

OK, I'd leave Newton, Smith and Bowers off of my list... and I wouldn't have interest in Jones or Green...

So we're left with Dareius, Miller, Peterson, Finn and Quinn as blue chippers that I see as a fit for the Boys... and I expect all of them to be gone by pick 9...

What if the 49ers offer up their 3rd? Do you then reach into the 2012 draft or walk away?

Well, I wouldn't give up the entire ranch to go get him... but I might be able to figure out a way to sweeten the offer a little to make it more enticing than the Niners' offer...

A lot of people like Jimmy Smith if he wasnt such a zero off the field

Yeah, I factored that into my claim...

You really took a QB in the 3rd round? Tell me who they cut between the current 3?

Sure did... mainly because I have read a number of pundits who have speculated that the Boys would like to draft a QB this year... and because it makes sense to start grooming Romo's eventual successor... now, the only QB I'd draft as early as the 3rd would be Dalton or Kaepernick, and it's entirely possible both will be drafted before the end of the 2nd round... in that case, I look for them to seriously consider Greg McElroy late in the draft (if only because of his relationship to the team through his dad)...

As for who they cut, they take all 4 to camp, and let them battle it out... perhaps one of the QBs suffers an injury during camp, winds up on IR, and the Boys wouldn't have to cut ANY of them...

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

OK, I'd leave Newton, Smith and Bowers off of my list... and I wouldn't have interest in Jones or Green...

So we're left with Dareius, Miller, Peterson, Finn and Quinn as blue chippers that I see as a fit for the Boys... and I expect all of them to be gone by pick 9...

My point was that the league has a tier of about 10. We dont have interest in the QB's and also personally may be lukewarm on the them, but they are going early. And AJ Green and Julio both have good chances of going top 10. So thats a group of about 11 or so, sitting at 9 we should have one of the blue-chippers there since like them or not the QB's are going high.

(Regarding Jimmy Smith/Prince) Yeah, I factored that into my claim...

Right, so if Jimmy Smith wasnt a total headcase theres a chance Prince is the 3rd best CB. I dont think thats good enough to take in the top 10. To me, he belongs in the next tier if they trade down into the teens. Hes about on the level of Carimi, Pouncey, Cam Jordan, Watt, Castanzo, and maybe Solder.

Sure did... mainly because I have read a number of pundits who have speculated that the Boys would like to draft a QB this year... and because it makes sense to start grooming Romo's eventual successor... now, the only QB I'd draft as early as the 3rd would be Dalton or Kaepernick, and it's entirely possible both will be drafted before the end of the 2nd round... in that case, I look for them to seriously consider Greg McElroy late in the draft (if only because of his relationship to the team through his dad)...

As for who they cut, they take all 4 to camp, and let them battle it out... perhaps one of the QBs suffers an injury during camp, winds up on IR, and the Boys wouldn't have to cut ANY of them...

I dont know about all that. Id rather use that 3rd to help Romo out. Hes a top 8 QB and just 30 going on 31. Im pretty much all in on him and think he will need replacing when father time says so, not b/c hes not the guy. That should give him about 5 more years.

Plus the scenario you laid out to keep 4 doesnt sound very fun. Barring a season ending injury they have to try and put one of McGee or Dallton on the PS and theres an excellent chance they get claimed.

 

[silverbear]

Good post, I'd be a little bummed with drafting yet another QB and a FB in the 4th though. Also no defensive linemen taken, what's your solution there?

Let me stress that drafting a QB like Dalton is not my game plan, I'd have other priorities in this draft... but I have heard some whispers that this is part of the Boys' game plan, so I worked it into my analysis...


As for the defensive linemen, I recognize that shortage and wouldn't be surprised at all if the Boys went for one of the players I mentioned in the writeup... at the same time, you can't fix everything in one draft, so I'd cross my fingers that the Boys could a) sign a quality free agent defensive lineman, or b) Rob Ryan can coach up our young defensive linemen, or c) both...

 

[silverbear]

Cam and Gabbert I do not think are top 10.

Nor do I, but that's now NFLDS rates them... I would not be surprised if both went in the top 10, though of course that's not quite the same thing as being a top 10 talent, is it??

 

[silverbear]

If nothing else that should solve most of our OL issues for a while.

I just don't see us going offense with the first 3 picks after what our D did last year. Overall a very nice effort I always enjoy reading several times before the draft each year.

Going into this, I wouldn't have expected that either, but when you look at the players they're known to like in that range, the choices I made make some sense...

I certainly agree that we need to upgrade the secondary, and we could use an influx of talent on the defensive line too... but at the same time, think about it this way-- this is Jason Garrett's first head coaching gig, and he got the job by being an offensive guru... so he might want to rapidly remake the offense in his image, while at the same time counting on his new defensive coordinator to "coach up" the defensive talent already on the roster...

So while the defense has problems, I could see the Boys going mostly offense this draft... that might not be what I would do, mind you...